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000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST SD WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN SD AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ND. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOSTLY IFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIVER OF CLEAR SKY
REMAINS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE VALLEY. THE
NORTHERN VALLEY SHOULD CLOUD OVER BY 7 OR 8 AM CDT. EXPECT IFR CIGS
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY STARTING WITH THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 OR 11 AM WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND AT
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 301142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR RAPID CITY IS LIFTING
NORTH. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING IN BISMARCK AROUND 9 AM CDT. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
FOR THIS. ALSO FOG NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. CONFINED
THE FOG MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID- DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER MN AND WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NE. NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 140M WITH SYSTEM.
AREA DRY SLOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER JET MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

INL OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED WARMER AIR MOVED IN ALOFT AND SET A
REASONABLE INVERSION EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. BIS OBSERVED SOUNDING
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE AND INCREASING BELOW 750 HPA. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BACK TO AROUND OR OVER AN INCH THIS AFTER
AND TONIGHT. FOG LOOP INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN MN AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN AK COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THU NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY OS FORECAST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FRIDAY-MONDAY...00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN DRY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEHIND A
SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A
FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...GODON





000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300850
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER
THE WESTERN NE/SD BORDER. THIS STACKED SYSTEM WAS NEAR THE BASE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO MOVE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY
DAYBREAK TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

AFTER DAYBREAK THE THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY EXITING
INTO MANITOBA BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WITH SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM - INCLUDING WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY - POINT TO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WHERE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH...WITH 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MANITOBA.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AFTER THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW KICKS OUT THERE IS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HAVE ADDED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. THE WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOKS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN US EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL DO NOT SEE A HARD FREEZE FOR THOSE AREAS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ONE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300550
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WERE OVER THE NE/CO
BORDER. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT SHOWERS FROM LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWARD AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
09Z. AFTER 15Z THE STACKED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 09Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR
AFTER 10Z THIS TUESDAY MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SPREAD/EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY...THEN
RETURN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MORE UPDATES TO CLOUD TRENDS AS IT APPEARS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MN
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STAYING UP
TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STUCK WITH THE PESSIMISTIC CLOUD HEIGHT FORECAST BUT MOVED UP THE
TIMING A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. APPEARS THE LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING KBJI RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST. HIGHEST CEILING HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY STAY OUT OVER KDVL AT
LEAST INITIALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING
AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
ARE HINTING THAT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY FIRE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FA AND SHIFT EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE FEED HERE. THEREFORE
JUST WENT WITH VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD
TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL REGION BUT
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THE FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS
ALONG A GRAND RAPIDS TO ALEXANDRIA LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FA. THIS FINGER MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. NOT
LOOKING LIKE ANY AREA WILL STAY TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL AGAIN UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MATCH BETTER WITH CURRENT CLOUD
TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OUT OF THE KDVL REGION BUT
THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THE FINGER OF CLOUDS THAT WAS
ALONG A GRAND RAPIDS TO ALEXANDRIA LINE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FA. THIS FINGER MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. NOT
LOOKING LIKE ANY AREA WILL STAY TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300227
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

INITIAL UPPER WAVE HAS PUSHED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. NEXT STRONGER WAVE IS MAKING A
QUICK APPROACH WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MANY PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH HAVE INCREASED CHANCES
LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE PUSHED CHANCES A BIT FURTHER EAST IN LINE
WITH LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING HAS PROGRESSED INTO MOST OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE KDVL REGION. TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THIS AREA TOO SCOURING OUT
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT. IF THE CLEARING HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN FA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST...TEMPS OR SOME FOG MAY ALSO NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT CLOSER. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE
CLOUD FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TOUGH CALL FOR THE TAFS MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD TRENDS. ALWAYS A
TOUGH DECISION WHEN CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE THINNING WITH THE SETTING
SUN. SOMETIMES THE HOLES FILL BACK IN BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE
IDEA OF THE CLOUDS MAINLY HANGING IN AND AROUND KDVL. KBJI COULD
GET SOME PATCHY FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS OR THE CLOUD LINE
FROM KAXN TO KGPZ COULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND WILL DELAY ANY INCREASE IN CLOUDS UNTIL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY TUE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ON TUE
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD SO MAY ADD THIS TO
THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292312
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
612 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN PER LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...FOR EVENING UPDATE HAVE BACKED POPS OFF A BIT OVER
THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CIGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING IFR LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KJMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO IFR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 292038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MAJORITY OF EASTERN CWA HAS
CLEARED OUT WITH WESTERN HALF CELLULAR IN NATURE. RADAR SHOWS
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA UP THROUGH DICKINSON
ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING SYSTEM AND WILL USE A
MODEL BLEND FOR POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND NAM DNG5 FOR
TEMPERATURES. FOR WED/THU TIMEFRAME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH LOW POPS...AND WILL TREND TOWARD CONTINUITY FOR
THIS PERIOD.

TONIGHT...CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE
AS EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SOUTHWEST WILL WORK THEIR WAY TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM LOW MOVING NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS WARM ENOUGH TO NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP TOO FAR INTO THE
30S IN THE CLEARER EASTERN ZONES.

TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SD AND INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS STRONGEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL
NEED TO EVALUATE FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL BUT CURRENT GRIDS ARE
BELOW CRITERIA.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE NAM IS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONE. THE GFS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE AND FOR THIS REASON REMOVED
LIKELY POPS IN MY SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL MAIN PRECIP ARRIVES.
ULTIMATELY THE MODELS ARE TARGETING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH
INCLUDES MY FAR WESTERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SRN
MB BY WED AM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WED AND THU...SFC LOW MOVES INTO MB ON WED AND WESTERLY FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON AMT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN PER
CONTINUITY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AFTN AND HAVE BUMPED
UP SFC TEMPS A FEW DEG ABOVE GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...THIS PERIOD FEATURES A TRANSITION TO AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ONE SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
TO HELP IN THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BUT
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT OF BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY RAPID MOVEMENT OF SURFACE
TROUGHS/RIDGES AND ATTENDANT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO EARLY OCTOBER MEANS WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY WARMING BY END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...EWENS/SPEICHER
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 292025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING THAT LIFTS TO NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE WEST CENTRAL. FARTHER EAST...A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT THESE WERE
QUICKLY FILLING IN AS INSOLATION INCREASED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAVE LIMITED POPS EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ALSO LIMITED THE MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG FORCING LIFTS DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE POTENT SHORT WAVE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A POTENT SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE
COLD CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT 20 UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AROUND KBIS-KJMS TO KMOT...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF UP SLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AROUND
KDIK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS. SEEING A CLEARING HOLE OVER
OTTER TAIL COUNTY AREA CONTINUING TO GROW ACROSS WEST CNTRL
MN...WITH CLOUDS OVER NW MN BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS WELL. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS OVER SE ND NOW BEGINNING TO BE MASKED BY CIRRUS...BUT
DOES SOMEWHAT CELLULAR (LOOKS MORE OVC WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
BUT EXPECT THERE IS SOME SUN GETTING THROUGH TO HEAT SFC). HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY ACCORDINGLY AND WARMED UP THE TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREA
BY ABT 3 DEG. GFS WAS SIMILAR TO NAM WITH EVOLUTION OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP INTO ND TOMORROW. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTED WEST THE HIGHEST POPS AS BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT
SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL AND WRN PART OF THE STATE...ALONG WITH
HIGHEST QPFS. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE INHERITED LIKELY
POPS FOR THE VALLEY ON EAST...AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z WED.
AGAIN...WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND COORD WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE
SOUTH FOR FINAL SOLUTION ISSUED WITH 4 PM PKG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE CWFA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EVENING. ALL SITES FCST TO BECOME
VFR...EXCEPT KDVL MAY BE MVFR TIL AFT 00Z. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST
GROUP USED THE HRRR/RAP AS GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 291756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS TO CUT BACK ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT AT UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KJMS TO POSSIBLY KMOT...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AROUND KDIK TODAY...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS TO CUT BACK ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT AT UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KJMS TO POSSIBLY KMOT...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AROUND KDIK TODAY...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KFGF 291501
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY
TODAY...AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR. USED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 291501
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1001 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CURRENT VIS IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WILL ADJUST SKY
TRENDS DOWN FROM OVC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MONITOR IMPACTS ON TEMPS
IF WE HAVE MORE SOLAR THAN EXPECTED MAKING IT THROUGH TO THE SFC.
WILL KEEP CURRENT TEMP TREND IN PLACE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NECESSARY WITH THE 1 PM CDT UPDATE...BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MUCH
OF A CHANGE GIVEN NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. 12Z NAM MATCHING UP WELL
WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO AREA TOMORROW AFTN. WILL SEE HOW GFS COMES
IN...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE WE COULD MORNING POPS FROM RANSOM/SARGENT
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY
TODAY...AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR. USED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 291436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 291150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND...KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY...DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH CLOUD COVER ERODING FROM EAST TO
WEST. LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PROCESS A FEW
HOURS. LOWERED MAX TEMPS 1F-3F AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE. STILL
GETTING REPORTS OF DRIZZLE FROM AROUND THE REGION...AND WILL LEAVE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS (MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LAYER UP TO 850MB...WITH VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE
850MB...IDEAL DRIZZLE SOUNDING).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BECOME EASTERLY
TODAY...AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LIFR/IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MAINLY MVFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR. USED RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE
FOR TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 291143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
AFFECTING KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 290905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD SOLID INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE. FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINS SPLIT ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON. LONG WAVE CONSOLIDATES OVER CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA BY DAY 5 AND THEREAFTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST TO HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTER SOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMPARED
TO THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL BLEND THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS SOUTH THU AND IN THE EAST FRI.

TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREES FR FRI AND SAT. LITTLE
CHANGE TO THU AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD SOLID INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE. FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG








000
FXUS63 KFGF 290855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABIITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD SOLID INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE. FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290830
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KBIS 290539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER POPS UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN
PLAINS...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A MOIST NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW OF AIR OVER
THE STATE. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE EAST WINDS PROVIDE UP SLOPE FLOW/LIFT OF LOW LEVEL
AIR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 290539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER POPS UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN
PLAINS...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A MOIST NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW OF AIR OVER
THE STATE. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE EAST WINDS PROVIDE UP SLOPE FLOW/LIFT OF LOW LEVEL
AIR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 290537
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

700MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY 09Z.
PATCHY DRIZZLE REPORTED IN AREAS TO THE NORTH...WITH SATURATED
925MB-850MB LAYER AND DRY AIR ALOFT (AND WILL MENTION DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS WITHOUT POPS UNTIL 12Z. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND CONSIDERING LIGHT
925MB-850MB WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...DO NOT FORESEE
CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY. INCREASED SKY GRIDS TO CLOUDY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (WHEN MIXING AT THE LOWER LEVELS
INCREASES)...FOLLOWING THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD SOLID INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE. FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TRIMMED POPS MORE AS RAIN BAND WITH WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CONTINUES TO SHRINK. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 290234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TRIMMED POPS MORE AS RAIN BAND WITH WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CONTINUES TO SHRINK. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 290230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282358
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO ADJUST POPS AS RAIN BAND
CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WEAKENS AND BAND DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HOLD PRETTY SOLID TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS OF
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. VSBY TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART
VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 282331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 282331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT -SHRA. LCL LIFR
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 282017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 282017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 282017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 282017
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUE/TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL...WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SAG SOUTH AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST IN
THE NORTH INITIALLY...THEN MOVE INTO THE EASTER AREAS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A COOL DAY WITH SOME SUN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE COOL WITH EASTERLY FLOW EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ON TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SFC LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES AND A STRONG LLJ AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TUE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS
FALLING TO AROUND -2C...SO EXPECT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM MONDAY...AND IT COULD GET EVEN WARMER
THAN PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S IF THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER TUE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
CRITERIA INTO TUE EVENING...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO WINDY
CATEGORY WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT LEAST.

ON WED...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS
IT DIGS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUS...EXPECT DRIER WEATHER NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281925
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL...KISN/KMOT...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BUT BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF LIFR AND PATCHY FOG.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 281925
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL...KISN/KMOT...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BUT BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF LIFR AND PATCHY FOG.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KFGF 281723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 281723
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WILL INCREASE WINDS A BIT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS OVER AN INCH THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR COLUMN
OVER CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT AND MON ONLY TO RETURN BACK NORTH INTO CANADA ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN IS
MAINLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS DRY/MOIST INTERFACE. INTERFACE
ALSO ALIGNS WITH 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER
BC AND ALTA/SASK BORDER RESPECTIVELY. RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR WILL MOVE
EAST AND AMPLIFY A BIT TODAY THROUGH MON AND DRIVE DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING BETTER THAN 130M HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS OVER AN
INCH. HOWEVER MU CAPES ARE CURRENTLY ANEMIC.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS THROUGH 84 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES
EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MOST ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCATTERED
AND LIGHT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN
PART OF THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO WRAP IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281657
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL
S/WV MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. A STEADY
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.




UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 281657
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE. CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL
S/WV MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. A STEADY
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.




UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEAST TODAY...SHIFTING TO MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR-IFR CIGS TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LIFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 281421
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERWARDS WE STABILIZE PRETTY WELL ACROSS THE
AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AND
TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED DOWN 2-4F DEGREES FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND
FARGO...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR JAMESTOWN...TO NEAR LINTON AND FORT
YATES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE NORTHEAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 40S. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STILL
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE IN A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA...WITH SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL RADARS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING/MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 50S NORTH AND
WEST...AND IN THE 60S SOUTH CENTRAL.

TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE NORTH AND INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS WILL KEEP COLDER AIR OVER THE STATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE WEST MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO
TIGHTEN UP INTO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST AND
NORTH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD
ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KFAR TO JUST SOUTH OF KJMS TO MOBRIDGE
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT KHEI/KDIK TO KBIS SHOULD
EXPAND TO OTHER TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO KISN/KMOT...THEN EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR TO CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BECOME IFR TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV







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