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000
FXUS63 KFGF 171456
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

COOL FRONT CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. IN
ITS WAKE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH A BKN STRATUS DECK TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND DVL BSN. AS A RESULT ADJUSTED TEMPS
TO THE CURRENT CURVE AND UPPED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS SO HOW FAR SOUTH CLOUDS
WILL ADVECT AND HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS IN THE HWY 2
CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STALL. WILL MONITOR AND
ADJUST AS NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTN UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SW THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAY. IF CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
PROGGED...THEN TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IN THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INITIALLY...THEN STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

ON THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...WITH 30KT TO MIX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG CAP WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH/WEST...AND
SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LLJ
AROUND 50KT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE CAP WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY
THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SO
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 2 JUST
BRUSHING OUR NW FA FOR THU EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS FROM +13C NORTH TO AROUND +20C IN THE SOUTH.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COOL FRONT SHOULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOME LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW
AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE INTO MONDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW COOLER 850MB
TEMPS SUN/MON WITH A BIT MORE RECOVERY TUE AS RETURN FLOW GETS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. ALL MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATE THIS CLOUD
BAND...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EVOLUTION OF
CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171400
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO ROLETTE COUNTY. ADDED CLOUDS...SOME FOG
FOR THE MORNING HERE. ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES THERE AS
THE STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AWHILE THEN BREAK UP/ERODE IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WATCHING KMOT FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SHALLOW COOL AIR SLIPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A BACK DOOR
FRONT. FOR NOW BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 171132
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SW THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAY. IF CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
PROGGED...THEN TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IN THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INITIALLY...THEN STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

ON THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...WITH 30KT TO MIX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG CAP WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH/WEST...AND
SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LLJ
AROUND 50KT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE CAP WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY
THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SO
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 2 JUST
BRUSHING OUR NW FA FOR THU EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS FROM +13C NORTH TO AROUND +20C IN THE SOUTH.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COOL FRONT SHOULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOME LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW
AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE INTO MONDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW COOLER 850MB
TEMPS SUN/MON WITH A BIT MORE RECOVERY TUE AS RETURN FLOW GETS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. ALL MESOSCALE MODELS DISSIPATE THIS CLOUD
BAND...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EVOLUTION OF
CLOUD TRENDS TODAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 171130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LCL FG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS OVER PTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH LOW COVERAGE...WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LCL FG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS OVER PTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH LOW COVERAGE...WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LCL FG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS OVER PTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH LOW COVERAGE...WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 171130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL ADDRESS THAT IN
MORNING UPDATE. OTHER THAN ADJUSTING CLOUDS A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS...REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LCL FG WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VIS OVER PTNS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. WITH LOW COVERAGE...WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SW THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAY. IF CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
PROGGED...THEN TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IN THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INITIALLY...THEN STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

ON THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...WITH 30KT TO MIX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG CAP WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH/WEST...AND
SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LLJ
AROUND 50KT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE CAP WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY
THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SO
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 2 JUST
BRUSHING OUR NW FA FOR THU EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS FROM +13C NORTH TO AROUND +20C IN THE SOUTH.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COOL FRONT SHOULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOME LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW
AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE INTO MONDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW COOLER 850MB
TEMPS SUN/MON WITH A BIT MORE RECOVERY TUE AS RETURN FLOW GETS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME
MID/HIGH SCT CLOUD COVER. WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE
NNE AROUND 10KTS. THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 170822
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THU NIGHT INTO
SAT...AND TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH NO
PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHEAST TO SW THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT PROGGED TO SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAY. IF CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
PROGGED...THEN TEMPS COULD EVEN BE COOLER IN THE NORTH. IT WILL BE
DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY THIS MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INITIALLY...THEN STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

ON THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BECOME WINDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...WITH 30KT TO MIX AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG CAP WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH/WEST...AND
SOMETHING THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LLJ
AROUND 50KT AND PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND MLCAPE AROUND 500
J/KG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE CAP WILL BE STRONG INITIALLY
THOUGH...AND THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL COVERAGE
OF STORMS. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL OVERNIGHT THOUGH...SO
SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE DAY 2 JUST
BRUSHING OUR NW FA FOR THU EVENING.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS FROM +13C NORTH TO AROUND +20C IN THE SOUTH.

FOR FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COOL FRONT SHOULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL START OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOME LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FLOW
AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE INTO MONDAY AS A WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. MAIN QUESTION MAY BE THE
DEGREE OF WARMING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW COOLER 850MB
TEMPS SUN/MON WITH A BIT MORE RECOVERY TUE AS RETURN FLOW GETS
GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME
MID/HIGH SCT CLOUD COVER. WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE
NNE AROUND 10KTS. THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170749
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JNS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 170749
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT BRUSHES EASTERN AREAS TODAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. AS OF 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY MAINLY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ON THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL START OUT THE DAY AS RIDGE AXIS
PASSES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LEE
SIDE TROF DEEPENS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WILL
THEREFORE INCREASE THOUGH PROBLEM WITH INITIATING CONVECTION WILL
BE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...RIDGE
WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW SHIFTING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF WHILE SURFACE LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND PUSHES EAST BRINGING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS PUSHING IN COMBINED
WITH CAP WEAKENING...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL THEN SLOWLY WORK EASTERLY BRINGING
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JNS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 170539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...THAT WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN FORECAST AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 170539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...THAT WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN FORECAST AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME
MID/HIGH SCT CLOUD COVER. WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE
NNE AROUND 10KTS. THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 170427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME
MID/HIGH SCT CLOUD COVER. WITH PASSAGE OF BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE
NNE AROUND 10KTS. THATS ABOUT IT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT KMOT BETWEEN 14-18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WHEN MVFR STRATUS MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT KMOT BETWEEN 14-18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WHEN MVFR STRATUS MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT KMOT BETWEEN 14-18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WHEN MVFR STRATUS MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN
TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT KMOT BETWEEN 14-18 UTC WEDNESDAY...WHEN MVFR STRATUS MAY
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
713 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
713 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 00 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 162339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 162339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FA ONLY
RESULT WILL BE SOME SCT LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE ALONG THE MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA IN THE VCNTY
OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT. ANOTHER SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS
OVER THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AGAIN NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS COVERED
WELL SO NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONE SHORT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR WITH ONLY POCKETS OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS LIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHERLY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 162036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONC EHOSRT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGHTENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 162036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONC EHOSRT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGHTENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 162036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONC EHOSRT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGHTENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 162036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. ONC EHOSRT WAVE SEEN MOVING INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON CANADIAN RADARS IN EASTERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO AND STILL COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST.

BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN PLACE AND IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NAM IN PARTICULAR
DOES SEEM BETTER WITH IDEA OF THE BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THAT MAY MEAN A NARROW
CLOUD BAND FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER...ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES COOLER.

CLEAR WED NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGHTENS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHD OF
NEXST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOISTURE IS SPARSE...BUT JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MN AND SE
MB WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS AND SRN ONTARIO REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW MN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE WKND. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING DRY WX TO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS NEXT WK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE WKND AS SKIES CLEAR AND SOLAR INCREASES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 161949
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE BLOB OF COOL AIR HOLDING UP
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WEDNESDAY WEATHER. TONIGHT IS
PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION WITH A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA DRIFTING
EAST. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL. CHOSE BCCONSRAW (WHICH SEEMS
TO FOLLOW THE NAM H850 CLOSER TODAY) AS THE GUIDANCE OF CHOICE
WHICH GAVE HIGHS AROUND 60 FAR NORTH CENTRAL. BUMPED CLOUDS UP TO
PARTLY CLOUDY THERE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST RANGING TO AROUND 60 NORTH CENTRAL. DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE DAKOTAS. OPTED
TO KEEP THURSDAY AFTERNOON DRY WITH MODELS INDICATING A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DESPITE INCREASING CAPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND SHIFT WITH A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE ALSO
LOOKS TO NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS TOWARDS THE ROCKIES.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS PATTERN TRANSITION
AND AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY -
TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A DRY LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 161802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM  CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM  CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID CLOUD ALONG THE INTL BORDER THAT SHOULD
DRY UP BY THIS EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF
PD AS SFC HIGH MOVES FROM MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161719
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SUNNY TODAY. WINDS WEST ARE LIGHT. JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM IOWA. A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. STILL
LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161719
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SUNNY TODAY. WINDS WEST ARE LIGHT. JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM IOWA. A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. STILL
LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161507
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BAND OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN. AREA DEFINED
WELL BY LATEST RAP MODEL AND SHOWS CLOUDS HOLDING IN THAT AREA
THRU THE DAY. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE SUNNY.  TEMPS ON TRACK.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161352
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
852 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM IOWA. A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. STILL
LOOKING FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 846 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM IOWA.
A WEAK AND DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN MONTANA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. VFR WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 161135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES SO ONLY CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 161127
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 161127
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 161127
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 161127
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SEEING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER TOWARD
THE UPPER AND LOWER RED LAKES. THESE MAY SINK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF KTVF/KBJI FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY
CREW SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE SUN COMES OUT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A
FEW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUT IF THESE DO DEVELOP THEY
WOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 160822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JNS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 160822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REGION CLOUD FREE WITH ONLY A
TINY PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ND. AS EXPECTED TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S.
KISN JUST REPORTED 3SM IN FOG...HOWEVER FOG PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FOG AND APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT ISN. OTHERWISE A
PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS REMAINING WEAK TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
AGAIN WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODEST WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE MIDDLE
CONUS. RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY AS PACIFIC TROF WORKS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA
WITH A VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH RESULTING IN MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. RIDGE
THEN PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JNS










000
FXUS63 KFGF 160753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE BAND OF MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN FA NOW. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE
OF PCPN LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED...ARRIVING MORE THU
AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. AS MENTIONED THERE IS A BAND OF MID
CLOUDS NOW MOVING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. MODELS KEEP
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN A NW TO SE BAND TODAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE UNDER
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS
MENTIONED IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN IN OTHER
AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME OF THESE MID
CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER INTO TONIGHT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALONG
WITH PRETTY LIGHT WINDS. MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION SO DID ADD THAT TO THE
FORECAST THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE TIGHTER THERMAL
GRADIENT ALSO PUSHES INTO THE NORTHEAST FA ON WED WHICH SHOULD
BRING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS TO THE NORTH AND NE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

START TO SEE RETURN FLOW WED NIGHT WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION IN
ALL AREAS. THIS WILL SET THU UP TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SCALE BACK ON PCPN CHANCES SO DID REMOVE THEM FROM THE THU
MORNING TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS AREA THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SFC FOCUS STILL BACK OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS RISE TO +10C OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ND WITH VALUES A LITTLE LOWER INTO NORTHWEST MN. THIS MAY CAP ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE SFC FORCING OUT WEST. HOWEVER WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY DID KEEP WITH CONTINUITY AND LEFT THE ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL THU AFTERNOON. THE WARM 700MB TEMPS CREST OVER THE FA
THU NIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION/INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
FA BY FRI MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE. EACH MODEL
RUN INDICATES MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT...AND THERE COULD BE MORE SHOWERS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTED ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...WHICH WAS THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JNS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 160519
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST...WHICH WAS THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JNS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 160438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTED ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 160438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTED ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 160246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY
EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 160246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF A LITTLE QUICKER AND BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS LOWERED MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY
EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 160240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AGAIN...NO CHANGES REQUIRED OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 152331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 152331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS OR RESTRICTION TO VSBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 152035
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152035
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL DRIFT EAST AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A MILD WEATHER WARM UP TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOWEVER FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500 RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
THEN AN H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST KICKS EAST BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS (NAM) SHOWS A
SHALLOW COOL LAYER THAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY (SHOWS UP VERY WELL (BIS-MOT-JMS) THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP AND KEEP THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION MUCH MORE
SPARSE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SPECULATION IS THE RELATIVE COOL
AIR FROM THIS PAST WEEK WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS DEFINITE CAPE
ALOFT...BUT THIS CAP LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MODELS RELATIVE
RELUCTANCE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD QPF EARLY ON. IT LOOKS A LITTLE
MORE SPOTTY FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A MORE STINGY POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY
20S TO LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED. MODELS DEPICT A CONTINUES WARM
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 152002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 152002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 152002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 152002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW FORECAST
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...EXPECT TO KEEP SOME LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COMBINED WITH RISING 850 MB
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...MITIGATING MUCH OF A FROST THREAT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGH TEMPS SURPASSING 70 IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
LIGHTER BREEZES THAN TODAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY COULD CLIP AREAS TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
FLATTEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERALL TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR FROM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARY HOWEVER. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH
EAST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 10C...HELPING HIGHS
ECLIPSE 70 IN MANY AREAS. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL AT TIMES OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS INDICATED WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT GENERALLY HAVE BACKED OFF WITH 12Z RUNS.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK WAVES...SPEED OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND ORIENTATION OF THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE 500 MB
PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MID WEEK RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA FRI-SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL SYSTEM IS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR LOCATION. WARMEST DAY FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
AIRMASS BEHIND IT ISNT TOO COOL SO TEMP DROP WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVERALL TRENDING TOWARD A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS
AND MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT OVER YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL CU STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY INTO MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO LARGE DIFFERENCES NOTED.

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY MORNING FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WON/T ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES SINCE AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE
FROST HAVE ALREADY HAD A FROST.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND
WAA. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S.

ON TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND +11C AT
850MB...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHEAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT. EXPECT THE MOST COOLING IN
THE NORTHEAST...WHERE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE +5 TO +8C
RANGE. THE NAM/ECMWF INDICATE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY AND KEEP ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED A LOW POP EVENTUALLY FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF RATHER UNSETTLED.
LOOKING FOR 500MB RIDGING ON THU WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN UP TO 850MB AS WELL. MAIN SFC
FOCUS SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER THU INTO THU
NIGHT...SO KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
ROBUST WITH PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE MUCH
MORE SPOTTY. MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER TIMING ON THE SFC
BOUNDARY IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH MODELS INDICATING EVEN HIGHER SFC
DEW POINTS FRI. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI.
500MB FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH MORE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THE FA. SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151748
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS
AND MORE SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT OVER YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL CU STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT...ESPECIALLY INTO MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO LARGE DIFFERENCES NOTED.

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY MORNING FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
WON/T ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES SINCE AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE
FROST HAVE ALREADY HAD A FROST.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW AND
WAA. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S.

ON TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND +11C AT
850MB...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FAR NORTHEAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT. EXPECT THE MOST COOLING IN
THE NORTHEAST...WHERE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE +5 TO +8C
RANGE. THE NAM/ECMWF INDICATE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY AND KEEP ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE MAY NEED A LOW POP EVENTUALLY FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS.

THE THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OFF RATHER UNSETTLED.
LOOKING FOR 500MB RIDGING ON THU WITH 850MB WARM ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN UP TO 850MB AS WELL. MAIN SFC
FOCUS SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE FA LATER THU INTO THU
NIGHT...SO KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
ROBUST WITH PCPN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS/GEM ARE MUCH
MORE SPOTTY. MUCH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. HOWEVER TIMING ON THE SFC
BOUNDARY IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH MODELS INDICATING EVEN HIGHER SFC
DEW POINTS FRI. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI.
500MB FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH MORE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTING THE FA. SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT BY SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR FCST THRU THIS PD.  VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WITH A WEST WIND
10 TO 20 KTS TODAY THEN TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 KTS.  A FEW CU THIS AFTN THEN CLEAR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 151711
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION AND IS CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS POSITION WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. H300 JET NOW EAST OF THE REGION WITH
BROAD RIDGING UPSTREAM. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
NORTH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. NO UPDATE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST SOUTH
OF NORTH DAKOTA AT 07Z. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S...EVEN A COUPLE 32 DEGREE READINGS IN CENTRAL
ND AT 7Z. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM.

OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT...REGION REMAINS DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DAYTIME  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLY HOLDING ON OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SPARK FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH...SO
THIS IS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...TO GET AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER.
LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE AS NEEDED.

WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. SIGNALS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO WE CANNOT DISCOUNT CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE ALLBLEND DOES PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 151711
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION AND IS CENTERED IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS POSITION WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. H300 JET NOW EAST OF THE REGION WITH
BROAD RIDGING UPSTREAM. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
NORTH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. NO UPDATE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH
MIDDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST OTHER THAN UPDATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW JUST SOUTH
OF NORTH DAKOTA AT 07Z. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 30S...EVEN A COUPLE 32 DEGREE READINGS IN CENTRAL
ND AT 7Z. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM.

OTHERWISE TODAY AND TONIGHT...REGION REMAINS DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHILE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IN
ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DAYTIME  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLY HOLDING ON OVER
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE...MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SPARK FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH...SO
THIS IS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...TO GET AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER.
LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE AS NEEDED.

WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA. SIGNALS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
GIVEN THE SCENARIO WE CANNOT DISCOUNT CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE ALLBLEND DOES PRODUCE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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