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000
FXUS63 KFGF 280902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

KEPT MENTION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KDVL WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
REMAIN VFR. THINK AS WINDS INCREASE SAT MORNING IT WILL HELP MIX
OUT ANY REMAINING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
MID DAY SAT WHICH WILL LAST INTO SAT EVENING. FRONT MOVES INTO
KDVL REGION BY LATE EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH IT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING
TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING ONTO THE WEST COAST
BUT WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. SFC LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. 925MB WINDS ARE UP CLOSE TO 40 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET SUBSIDENCE TO HELP OUT WITH MIXING. WENT JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY
FLIRTING WITH CRITERIA. THINK THE GREATER THREAT FOR WINDS WILL
BE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPS
TODAY WARM WELL INTO THE 40S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CWA INTO MN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MORE PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE TRUE INSTABILITY THAT MODELS SHOW TO OUR WEST FOR
THIS EVENING...BUT THINK THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN TEMP PROFILES
THINK THAT ANY SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THEN IT WILL BE MORE OF A MIX. THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW BUT THEN 850MB TEMPS
RETURN BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A STRONG MIXED LAYER AS THE FRONT COMES
IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30KTS IN SOME
AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG. THINK THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WINDS
COMING INTO THE AREA AND HOW FAST WE GET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING TO
SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS
UP WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT WAVE. THE ECMWF AND GEM
TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH AND JUST BRUSH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
AREAWIDE FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL
SEE SOME SUN FOR PART OF THE DAY SO KEPT MONDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WITH COOLER READINGS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT WEST WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP MONDAY NIGHT READINGS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN IS RELATIVELY ZONAL
WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOME MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. LITTLE CONFIDENCE AFTER WED AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ZERO TO FIVE DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

KEPT MENTION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KDVL WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
REMAIN VFR. THINK AS WINDS INCREASE SAT MORNING IT WILL HELP MIX
OUT ANY REMAINING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
MID DAY SAT WHICH WILL LAST INTO SAT EVENING. FRONT MOVES INTO
KDVL REGION BY LATE EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH IT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...GODON





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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280530
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND FOG FORECAST
FOR THIS UPDATE.

LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM CDT AND WILL SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AS MANY WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATION SITES WERE
REPORTING FOG.

UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING A BIT MORE THAN
EARLIER FORECASTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS/FOG ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO KBIS AND KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280424
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO MORE REPORTS OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA THRU THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

KEPT MENTION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KDVL WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
REMAIN VFR. THINK AS WINDS INCREASE SAT MORNING IT WILL HELP MIX
OUT ANY REMAINING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
MID DAY SAT WHICH WILL LAST INTO SAT EVENING. FRONT MOVES INTO
KDVL REGION BY LATE EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH IT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280424
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO MORE REPORTS OF FZDZ BUT WILL KEEP FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
WESTERN FA THRU THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST
STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

KEPT MENTION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT KDVL WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
REMAIN VFR. THINK AS WINDS INCREASE SAT MORNING IT WILL HELP MIX
OUT ANY REMAINING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BY
MID DAY SAT WHICH WILL LAST INTO SAT EVENING. FRONT MOVES INTO
KDVL REGION BY LATE EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH IT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280240 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD










000
FXUS63 KBIS 280240 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD











000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD








000
FXUS63 KBIS 280236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DID INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA...FOCUSING MAINLY ON THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. 01 UTC RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING
DRIZZLE THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS...WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DECIDED TO BASE THE STRATUS AND
FOG FORECAST OFF OF THE 00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS...AS THOUGHTS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MAINLY
FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST AT
KJMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 03 UTC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO KBIS AND
KMOT...POSSIBLY INTO KISN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KFGF 280233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG/FZDZ ACROSS
OUR WESTERN FA...FROM KDVL TO VALLEY CITY. EXTENDED THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST THRU MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONED MORE TO FOG. ALSO
ISSUED A GRAPHICAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE FZDZ AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG/FZDZ ACROSS
OUR WESTERN FA...FROM KDVL TO VALLEY CITY. EXTENDED THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST THRU MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONED MORE TO FOG. ALSO
ISSUED A GRAPHICAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE FZDZ AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG/FZDZ ACROSS
OUR WESTERN FA...FROM KDVL TO VALLEY CITY. EXTENDED THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST THRU MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONED MORE TO FOG. ALSO
ISSUED A GRAPHICAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE FZDZ AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SLIPPERY ROADS AND FOG/FZDZ ACROSS
OUR WESTERN FA...FROM KDVL TO VALLEY CITY. EXTENDED THE MENTION IN
THE FORECAST THRU MIDNIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONED MORE TO FOG. ALSO
ISSUED A GRAPHICAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE FZDZ AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280107
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

GOT A REPORT BETWEEN THE GFAFB AND KDVL OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS. KJMS HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTING SOME FZRA
AND FOG. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE REPORTING
FOG. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS BY THEN. AREA OF SNOW FROM KFAR SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO
SHRINK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280107
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

GOT A REPORT BETWEEN THE GFAFB AND KDVL OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLIPPERY ROADS. KJMS HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTING SOME FZRA
AND FOG. SEVERAL OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE REPORTING
FOG. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS BY THEN. AREA OF SNOW FROM KFAR SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO
SHRINK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO KFAR BUT HAS ENDED NOW AT KDVL/KGFK.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LIGHT SNOW ENDING QUICKLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 272347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO KFAR BUT HAS ENDED NOW AT KDVL/KGFK.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LIGHT SNOW ENDING QUICKLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COVERED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST SO NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AT KFAR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES CEILINGS OR FOG. SOME OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER OUR FAR WEST. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AT KDVL AND MONITOR TO SEE
IF OTHER SITES NEED THEM WITH LATER UPDATES. WINDS LOOK PRETTY LOW
TONIGHT BUT INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN ON SAT MORNING. FAIRLY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 272337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS. THE 18
UTC NAM...AND 20-22 UTC HRRR AND RAP ITERATIONS ALL FAVOR THE
STRATUS ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS AS OF 23 UTC TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR DURING THE NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A MENTION OF FOG WITH STRATUS
BUILD DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL PERSIST AT KJMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY. STRATUS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 23 UTC IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...POTENTIALLY INTO KBIS AND KMOT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWITCHING WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 272024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272024
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
324 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WATCHING SHRINKING BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE BORDER INTO MN. BAND
ENTERING WESTERN VALLEY WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE NW FA. SO FAR
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT FROM REGIONAL WEBCAMS...AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW BAND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND CONFINE ANY RESIDUAL -SN TO THE VALLEY REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS WITH THIS THINKING AND NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. MODEST WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CONTINUING GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COLD.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE DETERMINATION. WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WITH MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW OVER THE FAR NW LATE EVENING
COVERING MOST OF THE FA BY MORNING. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS FAIRLY
ROBUST WITH PCPN POTENTIAL WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .10 TO .5
INCHES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN HOWEVER COULD BE A MIX OVER NW MN
TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY AND LOOKING A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. EVEN WITH
INITIAL SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SNOW
COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITH MODEL SOLNS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGING 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TEENS BY WED PM
COMBINED WITH S TO SW SFC WINDS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. THEREAFTER A BIT MORE SPREAD DEVELOPS AS THE 12Z GFS AND GEM
MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN 500MB WAVE VERSUS THE 12Z EC WHICH
FEATURES A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION AND PIECES OUT A COUPLE VORT
MAXES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THURS
AND FRIDAY. AS FOR POPS AND PTYPE...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF
PRECIP FROM WED PM ONWARD WITH LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271753
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPED POPS WITHIN NARROW BAND OF -SN PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST. AT
THIS TIME WEB CAMS NOT INDICATING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS...LESS
THAN AN INCH SO FAR. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SNOW
BAND LATE AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE REACHING RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES
NOT RECOVERING VERY MUCH AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE DVL TERMINAL THIS AFTN BRINGING IFR
VSBY. WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE CIGS TO REMAIN VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST WORKING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AS IT MOVES OFF A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN...THOUGH
SOME CENTRAL PARTS MAY BE A BIT MORE RELUCTANT TO WARM UP AFTER A
BIT OF FRESH SNOWFALL...SO HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE
OVER THESE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271504
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SLOWED UP EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SNOW
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271402
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
902 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WARM FRONT
STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. HAVE
ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT AS EXPECT SNOW TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH MID-DAY WITH A
SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS WARM AIR ALOFT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PUSH.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 271207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREA RADARS/SURFACE OBS INDICATED PRECIP IN WESTERN ND BEGINNING TO
EXPAND EAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. OTHERWISE
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS LOWER TO BETWEEN 17 AND 45 HUNDRED FT IN WESTERN ND AND RISE TO
AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT OVER EASTERN ND. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS THE RED RIVER. CLEAR OVER NORTHWEST MN.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER OVER EASTERN ND AND HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO
NORTHWEST MN TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL TODAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAZEN AND GLEN ULLEN SHOW UP (UNKNOWN PRECIP) WHICH
USUALLY IS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SO
WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST GOING. WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW AT VARIOUS
CENTRAL REGION SITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS. A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MAY ACCOMPANY THE SNOW...BUT
THIS SHOULD LAST JUST A FEW HOURS AND WILL NOT ADD TO TAFS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270935
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING FAR WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY INCREASE
FROM THIS POINT ON AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...A BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED. RADAR WAS DEPICTING SNOW FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS MORNING DUE TO EVAPORATION. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES...SATURATION WILL OCCUR.

THE LATEST RUNS OF SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/RAP)
INDICATE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A STRONG H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TO THE WEST OF THIS A STRONG H300 120KT JET IS
BRINGING FAST FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHWEST US. THE
RIDGE WILL BRING A ROUND OF VERY MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR AND
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...BENEATH THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WARM FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY MILD AIR...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
70S SOUTHWEST...AND 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST. NAM CAPE VALUES OF 300-700 SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ALSO NAM IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS KEEPING THE FRONT AND
CAPE AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWED THE NAM TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 40 TO 55 KT
H850 POST COLD FRONTAL FLOW. EXPECT SOME ADVISORY WINDS WITH THE
H850 FLOW. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 3500 FEET TO
THE SURFACE AT MINOT/BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN...WITH THE BOTTOM OF THE
MIXING LAYER 30 TO 40 KTS. SO ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

GENERALLY GOOD MIXING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS MILD SUNDAY...50S TO LOWER 60S. MILD AND DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW BRINGS A BROAD AND DRY RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
60S BY TUESDAY. THEN A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06 FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270905
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS PERIOD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SAT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY SAT. SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN
SASK WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SUGGEST MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY FAST. WILL UP
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. WILL
INCREASE POPS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO NEARLY AN INCH BY SAT EVENING AS 700 HPA
THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD...BUT A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION FOR MID WEEK WILL SHIFT US BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD FOR
WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT WHILE THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH...WITH RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW AS COLD AIR COMES DOWN BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION TRENDS.

LIGHT SNOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EVAPORATING INITIAL
SNOWFALL PICKED UP BY RADAR. EVENTUALLY SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |238 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 04Z. SKIES CLEAR
WITH FIRST AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL ND. EXPECT
THICKENING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN ND. FCST TRENDS
LOOKS FINE AND NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 04Z. SKIES CLEAR
WITH FIRST AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL ND. EXPECT
THICKENING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN ND. FCST TRENDS
LOOKS FINE AND NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 04Z. SKIES CLEAR
WITH FIRST AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL ND. EXPECT
THICKENING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN ND. FCST TRENDS
LOOKS FINE AND NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 04Z. SKIES CLEAR
WITH FIRST AREA OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL ND. EXPECT
THICKENING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO ERN ND. FCST TRENDS
LOOKS FINE AND NO FURTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST MODEL
DATA SHOWS TREND OF BRINGING IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS INTO DVL
REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE RRV JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. FOLLOWED BY
MID CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DVL REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. KEPT -SN OUT OF GFK/FAR FOR
NOW AS EASTERN EDGE MAY BE HARD TO SATURATE. IN SNOW AREA COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS (DVL REGION). WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
10-20 KTS FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KBIS 270300
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC
FRIDAY...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS
TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270300
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC
FRIDAY...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS
TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270300
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE DELAYED THE
ONSET OF SNOW...DECREASED ITS COVERAGE AND SHIFTED THE AXIS CLOSER
TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC. GIVEN RADAR AND SURFACE TRENDS THROUGH 03
UTC...THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND WILL BLEND THE FORECAST
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 12 UTC
FRIDAY...AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. A BAND OF SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS
TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270009
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW INTO KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-09Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND
10-12Z AND INTO KJMS AROUND 16Z FRIDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270009
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW INTO KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-09Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND
10-12Z AND INTO KJMS AROUND 16Z FRIDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270009
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW INTO KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-09Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND
10-12Z AND INTO KJMS AROUND 16Z FRIDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270009
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
709 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OF A BAND OF
PREDOMINATELY SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 18
UTC GUIDANCE SUITE. THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND THROUGH THE
EVENT...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW INTO KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-09Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND
10-12Z AND INTO KJMS AROUND 16Z FRIDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MADE JUST A FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO SKY THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. REMAINING STRATOCU IN NE ND WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL
ARRIVE INTO DVL BASIN A BIT AFTER 06Z THEN THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
LOWS LOOK OK WITH COLDEST IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE DEW PTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DID TWEEK TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVING TO DELAY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION JUST A FEW HOURS.  &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

STRATOCU IN DVL-GFK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR A WHILE AT ALL
AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO DVL REGION NR 06Z AND
THEN THE RRV BY 12Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
8 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN UP RRV AND WEST
FRIDAY WITH SNOW ARRIVING IN DEVILS LAKE REGION NR 15Z. WILL LEAVE
SNOW OUT OF GFK/FAR AS UNSURE IF SNOW AREA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MADE JUST A FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO SKY THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. REMAINING STRATOCU IN NE ND WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL
ARRIVE INTO DVL BASIN A BIT AFTER 06Z THEN THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
LOWS LOOK OK WITH COLDEST IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE DEW PTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DID TWEEK TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVING TO DELAY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION JUST A FEW HOURS.  &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

STRATOCU IN DVL-GFK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR A WHILE AT ALL
AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO DVL REGION NR 06Z AND
THEN THE RRV BY 12Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
8 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN UP RRV AND WEST
FRIDAY WITH SNOW ARRIVING IN DEVILS LAKE REGION NR 15Z. WILL LEAVE
SNOW OUT OF GFK/FAR AS UNSURE IF SNOW AREA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MADE JUST A FEW MINOR TWEEKS TO SKY THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
FCST ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. REMAINING STRATOCU IN NE ND WILL
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL
ARRIVE INTO DVL BASIN A BIT AFTER 06Z THEN THE RRV TOWARD 12Z.
LOWS LOOK OK WITH COLDEST IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHERE DEW PTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. DID TWEEK TIMING OF SNOW ARRIVING TO DELAY
EASTWARD PROGRESSION JUST A FEW HOURS.  &&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

STRATOCU IN DVL-GFK AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT A CLEAR SKY FOR A WHILE AT ALL
AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO DVL REGION NR 06Z AND
THEN THE RRV BY 12Z. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
8 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN UP RRV AND WEST
FRIDAY WITH SNOW ARRIVING IN DEVILS LAKE REGION NR 15Z. WILL LEAVE
SNOW OUT OF GFK/FAR AS UNSURE IF SNOW AREA WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR
EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262038
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT...A BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE WILL PUSH THE TROUGH INTO FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AS A WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
BEGIN TO TRACK EAST...REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT A
WINTRY MIX IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE FAR WEST...CLOSER
TO THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT.

THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
THE 290K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES FRIDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING
DOWN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW INITIALLY BUT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE
ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ND. RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH
WEST TO AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. AND MAYBE UP TO TWO OVER THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION: GOOD CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES WITH A
QUICK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SPECIFICS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO
THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. THIS INDUCES A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
WEST BEHIND IT. 20 TO 30 MPH WEST WINDS IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD/ALONG/BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 70S FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...LINGERING INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 55 TO
60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT DICKINSON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING AT KISN...KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO KDIK AND
KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO KJMS
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KFGF 262033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
FRIDAY...SO WENT WITH NAM DNG MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BETTER TEMPORAL
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNDOWN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING THE WEST. THE CLEARING IN THE FAR EAST
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS THERE REACH SINGLE
DIGITS...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE FAR WEST COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20 DEG RANGE...SO A LARGE RANGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO SRN CANADA AND
INCREASE CLOUDS IN THE WEST NEAR MORNING...BUT HAVE REMOVED POPS
THROUGH 12Z.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...SHARP BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS
WESTERN CWA IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME. 540 THICKNESS LINES STAYS
WEST OF CWA SO ALL SNOW EXPECTED. NAM 290K SFC SHOWS LIFT FROM
ABOUT 800MB TO 670MB...SO INCREASED THE SNOW RATIOS TO AROUND 20:1
IN REGIONS OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERALL COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE REGION...POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. BEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD SHIFT
FROM DVL AREA TO SOUTHEAST ND IN THE EVENING...AND END AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD BRING
ALL RAIN TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...HOWEVER COLDER AIR
INDICATED WITH DECREASING THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE NORTH LATE SAT NIGHT. WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR
EAST WILL BE RAIN.

WESTERN RIDGE MAINTAINS ENOUGH AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP FA
IN NW MID LEVEL FLOW. NEXT MINOR WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH MONDAY FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO AFFECT FA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. INITIALLY THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT -RA HOWEVER AS COLUMN
COOLS COULD SEE A MIX OR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

EXPECTING HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD THIN
AND LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SCT VFR CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LOWERED
SKY COVER A LITTLE IN THE EAST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DICKINSON MINOT AND BISMARCK TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT BASES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AT KDIK NEAR MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO
KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO
KJMS AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. HAVE
UPDATED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. LOWERED
SKY COVER A LITTLE IN THE EAST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DICKINSON MINOT AND BISMARCK TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT BASES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AT KDIK NEAR MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO
KDIK AND KISN AROUND 07-12Z...KBIS AND KMOT AROUND 11-17Z AND INTO
KJMS AROUND 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
850 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND RAP/HRRR REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. EASTERN EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ERODING...THIS TRIMMED POPS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261202
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
702 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261132
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RADAR...SURFACE REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS
FROM WILLISTON SOUTH THROUGH HETTINGER. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW AS FAR EAST AS BISMARCK. EXTENDED THE
CHANCE AREA TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF EXPECTED DICKINSON TO
HETTINGER. ALREADY MOVING OUT OF WILLISTON AT THIS TIME SO BY 10
AM CDT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE OVER. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW WEST
THIS MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX WEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET IS TICKLING THE BOUNDARY AND TRIGGERING A BAND OF SNOW
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA TO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY WITH BOWMAN RADAR PRETTY MUCH LIT
UP AND SEVERAL OBSERVING SITES NOW REPORTING SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF THE SNOW IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VIS IN FALLING SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS.
OVERALL AN INCH TO INCH AND ONE HALF MAX EXPECTED.

BAND OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH MID TO
LATE MORNING AS FORCING PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY BUT STILL SEASONAL/CHILLY WITH BEST RETURN FLOW/WAA
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR 50F. 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL
NUDGE THE SFC BOUNDARY EASTWARD BRINGING WAA FARTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. UPPER JET ALOFT AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THERMAL PROFILES AND MODEL SUGGESTED SFC TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ALL SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL THROUGH 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL
GENERATE SOME FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND WILL GENERALLY BRING A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SHOULD BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR SPECIFICS...FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN A NARROW BAND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY FEW
HOURS OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING. TO THE EAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PRIMARILY
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. BY AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN WEST...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST. COOLER WITH 30S AND AND 40S NORTH AND EAST.

BY SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH EAST. WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE
HIGHS AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST...60S CENTRAL AND 50S EAST.

FOLLOWING THIS WARM PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET WITH H850 WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS ON THE GFS. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THE WIND IS ARRIVING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. NAM AND ECMWF A BIT LESS WINDY AT H850.

GOOD MIXING AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. MILDER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AS ANOTHER
H500 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOLLOWING THIS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S...PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CEILINGS IN SCT-BKN AREAS OF STRATUS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN SNOW AND LOW STRATUS AS A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVES FROM KISN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO KDIK THIS THURSDAY
MORNING. STRATUS LINGERS UNTIL MID MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR-
IFR CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WEST INTO CENTRAL ALONG WITH A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH






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