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000
FXUS63 KBIS 261456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 261456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 261456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 261456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 261456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GIVEN TRENDS IN THE 11-13 HRRR ITERATIONS...AND 00 UTC WRF-
ARW/NMM...ALL OF WHICH PERFORMED WELL YESTERDAY...INCREASED POPS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND A TAD STRONGER
OVERALL FORCING. ACROSS THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...TRENDED POPS DOWN...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 06 AND
INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. KMOT AND KJMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE
IMPACTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 261421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
921 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

NO SIG UPDATE NEEDED THIS FORENOON. PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING ALONG
FORECAST HEATING CURVE. THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF AN
INL-BJI-BWP-ABR LINE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 261136
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

STILL HAVE SOME FOG STRETCHING FROM KFAR TO KBJI BUT THINK IT
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SE FA BUT IT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY THIN.
FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KDVL SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT
TODAY. AT KDVL THEY SHOULD KEEP A NW COMPONENT. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. SHOULD BE PRETTY HIT AND
MISS SO WILL ONLY GO WITH VCSH AT THE TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KBIS 261135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 261135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG WORDING SOUTHWEST. WILL ALSO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA WITH WEB CAMS INDICATING
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG. AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY PARTICULAR TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260903
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN ANY
TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260903
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S IS ON TAP FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
HEATING PROVIDES SOME INSTABILITY AND DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT ENHANCEMENT. THE 00 UTC WRFS AND THE LATEST
RAP RUN SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND DIEING OUT AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE BROAD AREA OF INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE PARTICULAR MODEL...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING NORTH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY TOMORROW.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TWO ACTIVE PERIODS...WITH A DRY AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
MIDDLE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
EJECT LEAD WAVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EACH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING PERIOD WHEN ONE OF THE MORE DEFINED S/WV
IMPULSES MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE. PARENT UPPER LOW IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS FRI-SAT COMFORTABLE AT 55-65.

ROBUST RETURN FLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING INSTABILITY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/EC PROJECT
ANYWHERE FROM 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. BECOMES MORE INTERESTING
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY YET BUT SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN ANY
TAF.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260804
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 AM...THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EAST
AND WEST. CONTINUED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FROM KBJI TO KFSE TO
KFAR SO WILL KEEP THAT MENTIONED THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF MORNING SUN WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE WARMER 925MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN. HARD TO PICK OUT A BETTER
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK SFC WIND
FIELD. HOWEVER THERE WERE A GOOD NUMBER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN WITH
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOMETHING DEVELOPING
AGAIN. SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS FROM VALLEY CITY UP
THRU THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND POSSIBLY OVER TOWARD KDVL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SMALL BREAK
AGAIN UNTIL WED AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN FA AND BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS
AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALSO KEEPING IT A LITTLE
COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PCPN CHANCES SHOULD PICK BY WED NIGHT AND THU AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS INTO THE FA. KEPT THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH THIS PERIOD AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CHANCES EVEN MORE WITH
LATER FORECASTS. MAIN OTHER THING OF NOTE IS A COLD FRONT THU
NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER FRI MORNING LOWS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH COOLER AIR INVADE THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING THE COLDEST WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS RETURN ALONG WITH
A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

JUST A FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN ANY
TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

JUST A FEW CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PLACE FOG IN ANY
TAF.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KFGF 260452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATING FROM HIGH BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER SURFACE
REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE PRECIP WAS REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MAN. WILL NOT MENTION
POPS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIP MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING AND DISSIPATING FROM HIGH BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER SURFACE
REPORTS DID NOT INDICATE PRECIP WAS REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP
CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MAN. WILL NOT MENTION
POPS OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO PRECIP HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
EAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER
EASTERN ZONES. CIGS RANGED FROM 45 HUNDRED FT AT SAZ TO ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT AT BDE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 11 THOUSAND FT WERE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 260259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 260259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHEAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AIR WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG WITH
A MOIST LAYER AROUND 700 HPA. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATED PATCHY CLOUD
LAYER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL RAISE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
FOR TONIGHT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 260249
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL EARLIER THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EMMONS AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING WITH
THESE CELLS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ELSEWHERE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EASTERN ROLETTE AND
PIERCE COUNTIES...AND OVER WESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY. THERE COULD
YET BE A PASSING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IN GENERAL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED OR
REMOVED POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DID KEEP
THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
WITH SOME MORNING SHOWERS...AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT AT THIS
TIME CERTAINTY TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN ANY INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 260004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 260004
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SATELLITE LOOP/RADAR INDICATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLULAR CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. RADAR INDICATED RAIN IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND
WAS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATING SLOWLY ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE. EXPECT PRECIP TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. LITTLE
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES. VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IFR/MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH CIGS AT 7 HUNDRED FT AND HIGHER. EXPECT
IFR /MVFR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT. CONVECTION IN
THE WEST SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 252304
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 02 UTC. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 252304
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 02 UTC. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 252031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 252031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 252031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 252031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE WILL BEGIN TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 252018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND/OR PROPAGATE EAST
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE SHOWERS ACROSS
WC MN. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS (ISOLATED) STARTING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND...IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
(MLCAPE @200 J/KG) AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY.

MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA TODAY WHERE THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS
TEMPERATURE AND OTHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWER CHANCES AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWS UP ON MOST GUIDANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE EJECTS
OUT OF THE PAC NW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP APPEARING
LIKELY. RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH BUT MORE OR LESS
WIDESPREAD. INSTABILITY VERY MINIMAL AND KEPT THUNDER CHANCES VERY
LOW (LIKELY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER).

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN AND LW
TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO AND
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY IN THE EAST. SHOWALTERS APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THU NIGHT BECOMING MORE STABLE ON FRIDAY...SO
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. SFC HIGH THEN DROPS INTO NORTHERN TIER
AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS
UP IN WRN DAKOTAS SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY MAY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO MB AND MISS MOST OF CWA...PER ECMWF...HOWEVER GFS
BRINGS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONSEQUENTLY RISE
INTO UPPER 60S SUN AND LOW 70S ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SE ND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WC/NW MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN IDEA STILL HOLDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SE ND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (JUST NORTH OF THE 700MB LOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WC/NW MN. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY...BUT OVERALL THE MAIN IDEA STILL HOLDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AT FAR AND BJI THROUGH AROUND 22Z TO 02Z
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE THE VFR CIGS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST. NO STEADY PRECIP EXPECTED
AT TVF/GFK ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE...WHILE DVL AREA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY MID AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 1730 UTC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE WILL BEGIN
TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 1730 UTC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE WILL BEGIN
TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CUMULUS FIELDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS OF 1730 UTC WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION. THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM AND 14-16 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH CONTINUED HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
STRATIFORM ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR/VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE WILL BEGIN
TO FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 251459
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 251459
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD AS EXPECTED. 700MB LOW SITS ACROSS
THE FERGUS FALLS/ELBOW LAKE AREA...WITH A SFC LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT (OR BECOME MORE
ELONGATED). THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING FORCING GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. UPDATED POPS TO 100% WHERE IT IS RAINING...AND
USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING. ALSO...INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. SEBEKA OBSERVER REPORTED 0.76
INCHES...AND WOULD THINK ANOTHER 0.75 INCHES LIKELY GIVEN ANOTHER
6-9 HRS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KJMS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH FOR
NOW AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 251356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KJMS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH FOR
NOW AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
856 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. THE 11-12 UTC HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST WEAK...SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06
UTC NAM AND 09 UTC SREF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KBIS AND KJMS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE VCSH FOR
NOW AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN AND
KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
INTENSITY AND CIG HEIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT MAINLY LOW VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 251210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN AND
KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
INTENSITY AND CIG HEIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT MAINLY LOW VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 251210
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
710 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD HAS FILLED IN...THERE IS BETTER JUSTIFICATION TO BUMP UP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE JAMES VALLEY TO THE EASTERN
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MADE ONLY AESTHETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN AND
KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL
INTENSITY AND CIG HEIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT MAINLY LOW VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN AREA ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED WITH NORTH EDGE RED LAKE-FOSSTON-
MAYVILLE-NEW ROCKFORD. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE NRN EDGE...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE MAYBE INTO GRAND FORKS-
CROOKSTON-TRF. THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP THIS AFTN-EVE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN AREA ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED WITH NORTH EDGE RED LAKE-FOSSTON-
MAYVILLE-NEW ROCKFORD. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE NRN EDGE...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE MAYBE INTO GRAND FORKS-
CROOKSTON-TRF. THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP THIS AFTN-EVE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN AREA ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED WITH NORTH EDGE RED LAKE-FOSSTON-
MAYVILLE-NEW ROCKFORD. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE NRN EDGE...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE MAYBE INTO GRAND FORKS-
CROOKSTON-TRF. THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP THIS AFTN-EVE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 251207
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN AREA ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED WITH NORTH EDGE RED LAKE-FOSSTON-
MAYVILLE-NEW ROCKFORD. THIS WILL BE ABOUT THE NRN EDGE...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE MAYBE INTO GRAND FORKS-
CROOKSTON-TRF. THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP THIS AFTN-EVE. NO
CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
BJI/FAR COULD OCCUR. SOME MVFR VSBY IN -RA AS WELL THIS MORNING AT
FAR/BJI. KEPT DVL/GFK/TVF DRY. WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY AND
VARIABLE. A BIT MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN FARGO DUE TO CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TO IN SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250921
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN.

EARLY THIS MORNING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WERE BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND VORT MAX
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MODELS HAVE THIS VORT MAX PHASING WITH THE OTHER
NEARBY IMPULSES THIS AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION. THE
WRF/RAP SHOW RAIN SCATTERING OUT AND WINDING DOWN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WRF/RAP ALSO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...KEPT
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT
REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND BEST FORCING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE THE BULK OF THE RAIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5 TO AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIPITATION.

EASTERN PACIFIC REX BLOCKING AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BECAUSE OF THE FLOW REGIME COMPLEXITY...THOUGH... FORECASTS HAVE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA FALLING IN THE
ZONE BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN EACH BRANCH BECOME PHASED...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. SUCH IS THE CASE ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/NAM/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL.
03 UTC SREF PROBABILITY FOR CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG IS OVER 50
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS...SO THAT IS ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT
JUSTIFY SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN
AND KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND CIG HEIGHT. MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND SOME IFR CIGS WERE NOTED...HOWEVER RAIN
ACROSS ND WAS LIGHTER AND CIGS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
THEREFORE...ONLY KEPT MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING/SD/NEBRASKA REGION
AREA SEVERAL SMALLER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES. ONE IS IN ERN SD AND
THIS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THRU CNTRL MN TODAY. THIS HAS
BROUGHT THE ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS LONG BEEN FORECASTED FOR
SRN ND INTO CNTRL MN. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE NRN EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN TODAY VERY NEAR A WASKISH-RED LAKE FALLS-CROOKSTON-GRAND
FORKS-NEW ROCKFORD LINE...WITH ITS NRN EXTENT LATE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPIN BACK SOUTH IN THE AFTN. GRIDS FOLLOWED THIS WELL SO ONLY
MINOR TWEEKS WERE NEEDED. RAINFALL WILL END THIS EVE IN WCNTRL MN.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE SUN AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN SASK INTO
SRN MANITOBA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVE OVER NE ND/NW MN. MINOR EVENT AND KEPT
POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY REMAINS MAINLY NEAR A BOUNDARY IN SRN CANADA SO
MAINTAINED A LOW POP NRN AREAS FOR ANY AFTN T-STORMS.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY WILL STAY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE ONE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS FRI INTO SAT. SAT MORNING LOWS COULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS FRI/SAT IN THE 60S. TEMPS THEN
MODERATE BY SUN INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND IR SATELLITE INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...UPDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING AS
VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY EXISTS AND CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RATHER SHALLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN
AND KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND CIG HEIGHT. MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND SOME IFR CIGS WERE NOTED...HOWEVER RAIN
ACROSS ND WAS LIGHTER AND CIGS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
THEREFORE...ONLY KEPT MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ



000
FXUS63 KBIS 250525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND IR SATELLITE INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...UPDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING AS
VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY EXISTS AND CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RATHER SHALLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN
AND KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND CIG HEIGHT. MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND SOME IFR CIGS WERE NOTED...HOWEVER RAIN
ACROSS ND WAS LIGHTER AND CIGS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
THEREFORE...ONLY KEPT MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250525
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND IR SATELLITE INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...UPDATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS MORNING AS
VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY EXISTS AND CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RATHER SHALLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KDIK/KBIS/KJMS WITH VFR AT KISN
AND KMOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND CIG HEIGHT. MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE ND
BORDER THIS MORNING AND SOME IFR CIGS WERE NOTED...HOWEVER RAIN
ACROSS ND WAS LIGHTER AND CIGS WERE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
THEREFORE...ONLY KEPT MVFR CIGS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SOME RAIN AND MOSTLY DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER SOME DRIZZLE HAD
FALLEN AT DTL. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CIGS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CIGS RANGED FROM ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FT IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 6 THOUSAND FT IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 24 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH AT ELBOW LAKE. IFR CIGS WERE FARTHER SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND
MON MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KBIS 250253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 03 UTC. LOW VFR
AND MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 250253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 03 UTC. LOW VFR
AND MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 03 UTC. LOW VFR
AND MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 250253
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST.
RADAR RETURNS ARE DIMINISHING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. LATEST MESOSCALE RAP/HRRR INDICATE
SHOWERS SPREADING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS TAF SITES AS OF 03 UTC. LOW VFR
AND MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
NORTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MN WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST.
SURROUNDING THE IFR AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF SD AND
INTO CENTRAL MN AND EDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250247
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER OK.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST SUN. LOW LEVEL JET WAS FARTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKE
STATES. RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1 AND A QUARTER
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT. MOST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. AREAS RADARS INDICATED RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH BUT
WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET. WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND QPF.
ALSO WILL DECREASE TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MN WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST.
SURROUNDING THE IFR AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF SD AND
INTO CENTRAL MN AND EDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 250005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MN WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST.
SURROUNDING THE IFR AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF SD AND
INTO CENTRAL MN AND EDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 250005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT AREA RADARS INDICATED ONLY PRECIP WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
RED RIVER AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. MAY TWEAK POPS ON THE NEXT
UPDATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN MN WAS MOVING NORTH AND EAST.
SURROUNDING THE IFR AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF SD AND
INTO CENTRAL MN AND EDGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 242341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 25 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. LOW VFR AND
MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 242341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 25 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. LOW VFR AND
MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 242341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 25 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. LOW VFR AND
MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 242341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECT AN COMPLETE RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...BUT MORESO AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 25 00 UTC TAF PERIOD. LOW VFR AND
MVFR CEILING JUST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS AND KJMS BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOG. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES OF KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 242014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KFAR. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KFAR THIS EVENING...CIGS AND VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY)...SO THE RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...TJG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 242014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES MAINLY RAIN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING SURFACE LOW TO
SE BY MN. NAM LOOKS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH A FARTHER SE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND DRIER FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS FOR NEAR TERM PCPN TRENDS.

RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT NORTHWARD HOWEVER AS FORCING
WITH UPPER LOW APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND LIFT NORTHWARD. LIMITED POPS TO GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP.

RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FA TOMORROW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG SOME
FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY WENT STRICTLY WITH RAIN.

RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF THE FA BY MORNING. CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER GOOD PART OF
THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY HOWEVER WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
AND WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MILD COLUMN IN PLACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS.

NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER IN EXITING THE ROCKIES SO WILL NOW GO WITH A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO SAGGING COLD FRONT.

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
INDICATING MORE OR LESS ZONAL TYPE FLOW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...BUT
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KFAR. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KFAR THIS EVENING...CIGS AND VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY)...SO THE RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...TJG



000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND YET ANOTHER
DELAY IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA REGARDING THE CURRENT COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
US...CONTINUES TO BE FRUSTRATING AND CHALLENGING IN THE FORECAST
PROCESS.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WAS OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING...WITH THE STRONG IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW
GENERATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER IN BRINGING THE
COLORADO/WYOMING LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE/SD/MN THROUGH MONDAY...AS
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAICS WITH THE
SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PRECIP AROUND
THE BLACK HILLS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO/WY LOW. THIS SCENARIO OF
THE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW ENOUGH
ENERGY/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NORTH DAKOTA FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A RAINY DAY SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
RIDGING APPEARS TO TAKE CONTROL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM/NAM ARE SIMILAR/CONSISTENT WITH TAKING
THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW MENTIONED...AND TRACKING IT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PROMOTING MAINLY A DRY FORECAST.
THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BROAD
RIDGING TAKES CONTROL WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REACHES FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ALL
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 241743
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST RAISING HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES
AS CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATING SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OF SIOUX COUNTY. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWERED DEWPOINT/RH VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
USING SHORT TERM MODELS AND TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWER RH
AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN TIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. WITH THE
LATEST (00 UTC) RUNS THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THANKFULLY THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TODAY/TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH
INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WITH TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IS A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA HIGH AND DRY. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT MANY ALTERATIONS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT...SO THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYS IN PRECIPITATION ONSET FROM PAST FORECASTS
RESULTED IN REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES MODEL SUITE AND
THE 00 UTC GFS. THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO MOVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
ALSO REDUCES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL...BUT TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 241743
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST RAISING HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES
AS CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATING SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OF SIOUX COUNTY. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWERED DEWPOINT/RH VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
USING SHORT TERM MODELS AND TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWER RH
AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN TIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. WITH THE
LATEST (00 UTC) RUNS THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THANKFULLY THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TODAY/TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH
INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WITH TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IS A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA HIGH AND DRY. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT MANY ALTERATIONS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT...SO THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYS IN PRECIPITATION ONSET FROM PAST FORECASTS
RESULTED IN REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES MODEL SUITE AND
THE 00 UTC GFS. THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO MOVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
ALSO REDUCES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL...BUT TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 241743
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST RAISING HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES
AS CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATING SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OF SIOUX COUNTY. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWERED DEWPOINT/RH VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
USING SHORT TERM MODELS AND TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWER RH
AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN TIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. WITH THE
LATEST (00 UTC) RUNS THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THANKFULLY THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TODAY/TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH
INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WITH TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IS A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA HIGH AND DRY. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT MANY ALTERATIONS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT...SO THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYS IN PRECIPITATION ONSET FROM PAST FORECASTS
RESULTED IN REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES MODEL SUITE AND
THE 00 UTC GFS. THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO MOVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
ALSO REDUCES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL...BUT TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 241743
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST TOWARDS BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVING
NORTH/NORTHWEST. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST RAISING HOURLY PRECIP CHANCES
AS CURRENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATING SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OF SIOUX COUNTY. OTHERWISE
ONLY MINOR HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. LOWERED DEWPOINT/RH VALUES IN THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
USING SHORT TERM MODELS AND TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF LOWER RH
AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE NORTHERN TIER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK BASED ON THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. WITH THE
LATEST (00 UTC) RUNS THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THANKFULLY THEY ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP TODAY/TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTH AND MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED AS THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING (SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW) REMAINS SOUTH
INTO NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
PROPAGATE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO RECEIVE SOME WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIPITATION...WITH TOTALS
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS IS A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAVE NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA HIGH AND DRY. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT MANY ALTERATIONS
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT...SO THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND LOCATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DELAYS IN PRECIPITATION ONSET FROM PAST FORECASTS
RESULTED IN REDUCTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES MODEL SUITE AND
THE 00 UTC GFS. THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN...HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO MOVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FORECAST
ALSO REDUCES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY IS NOW FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH.

THEREAFTER...CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/GEM GLOBAL...BUT TIMING OF MIDDLE LEVEL
IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE BROAD WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KDIK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AND BECOME IFR AFT AROUND 03Z IN RAIN AND FOG.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KBIS/KJMS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG AT KBIS/KJMS MAINLY AFT 06Z.
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AT KDIK...AND THIS EVENING AT KBIS/KJMS. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 241724
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SPREADING NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH CURRENT
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
KEEPING BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO SE FA BORDER AREA. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND WEAKEN...MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SE FA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT MENTION ACROSS THE FAR S.
OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST GOOD SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE. VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR
NORTH AND HOW MUCH SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE NORTH TODAY. HRRR/RAP A
BIT DRIER... HOP WRF FROM WFO MPX AND ARW-WRF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE FOR PRECIP INTO SE ND. RADAR AT 12Z SHOWS SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER IN THE ORTONVILLE AREA. THIS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AND LIKELY FIZZLE OUT SOME THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN SD AND MOVE NORTH. SPED UP
POPS JUST A TAD FOR BLENDING WITH WFOS MPX/ABR...BUT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER DAY AND ANOTHER MODEL RUN WHERE NCEP MODELS...ALONG WITH
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DELAY THE PRECIP ARRIVAL
NORTHWARD INTO ERN ND/NW MN. ALL MODELS ALSO ARE MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH MAIN QPF FROM SYSTEM AND HAVE VERY LITTLE TO
NO QPF NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE-GRAND FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS. SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. NE ND/NW MN TO SEE STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND WITH A WARM
START...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PIERRE SD TO ABOUT BROOKINGS SD MOVING
NORTH. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE ND BORDER
MIDDAY AND INTO SE ND/PARTS OF WCNTRL MN THIS AFTN BEFORE DRYING
IT UP. WILL DELAY ONSET OF POPS IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN TIL MORE LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND SFC LOW MOVES
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI THRU IOWA TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT TRACK OF LOW AND
TROUGH IS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG
IN MANITOBA..IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE FARGO-BEMIDJI AND SOUTH AND EAST WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NONE NORTH OF DVL-GFK-TVF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEMS MOVES EAST. TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT THEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT
NR A YORKTON-WINNIPEG-KENORA LINE TO GENERATE A FEW T-STORMS TUES
AFTN/NIGHT. LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT
BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS S MB INTO ONTARIO. BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUSTIFY LOW POPS FIRST OVER NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA MOVING SOUTH BY LATER WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD
EAST THURSDAY FAVORING MORE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF REGION.

BY FRIDAY COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER SUPPRESSING
PCPN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGING BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN 60S AND LOWS IN 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KFAR. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KFAR THIS EVENING...CIGS AND VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY)...SO THE RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TJG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 241724
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1224 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME SPREADING NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH CURRENT
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
KEEPING BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO SE FA BORDER AREA. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND WEAKEN...MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR SE FA. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD/SCT MENTION ACROSS THE FAR S.
OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST GOOD SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE. VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON HOW FAR
NORTH AND HOW MUCH SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE NORTH TODAY. HRRR/RAP A
BIT DRIER... HOP WRF FROM WFO MPX AND ARW-WRF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE FOR PRECIP INTO SE ND. RADAR AT 12Z SHOWS SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER IN THE ORTONVILLE AREA. THIS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AND LIKELY FIZZLE OUT SOME THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN SD AND MOVE NORTH. SPED UP
POPS JUST A TAD FOR BLENDING WITH WFOS MPX/ABR...BUT OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER DAY AND ANOTHER MODEL RUN WHERE NCEP MODELS...ALONG WITH
CANADIAN AND ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DELAY THE PRECIP ARRIVAL
NORTHWARD INTO ERN ND/NW MN. ALL MODELS ALSO ARE MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST WITH MAIN QPF FROM SYSTEM AND HAVE VERY LITTLE TO
NO QPF NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE-GRAND FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS. SO MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...WILL SEE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. NE ND/NW MN TO SEE STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND WITH A WARM
START...EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS A NARROW
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PIERRE SD TO ABOUT BROOKINGS SD MOVING
NORTH. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE ND BORDER
MIDDAY AND INTO SE ND/PARTS OF WCNTRL MN THIS AFTN BEFORE DRYING
IT UP. WILL DELAY ONSET OF POPS IN SE ND/WCNTRL MN TIL MORE LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTN. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND SFC LOW MOVES
FROM WESTERN MISSOURI THRU IOWA TO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT TRACK OF LOW AND
TROUGH IS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG
IN MANITOBA..IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE FARGO-BEMIDJI AND SOUTH AND EAST WITH
VERY LITTLE TO NONE NORTH OF DVL-GFK-TVF.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN MONDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEMS MOVES EAST. TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT THEN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER JUST SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONT
NR A YORKTON-WINNIPEG-KENORA LINE TO GENERATE A FEW T-STORMS TUES
AFTN/NIGHT. LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AT
BEGINNING OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS S MB INTO ONTARIO. BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUSTIFY LOW POPS FIRST OVER NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA MOVING SOUTH BY LATER WEDNESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD
EAST THURSDAY FAVORING MORE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF REGION.

BY FRIDAY COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER SUPPRESSING
PCPN TO CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRINGING BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN 60S AND LOWS IN 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KFAR. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KFAR THIS EVENING...CIGS AND VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL (WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY)...SO THE RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TJG



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