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000
FXUS63 KFGF 312114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT DROPPING SOUTH THRU WRN ND...WITH A
NARROW BAND OF JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT EAST TO AREAS JSUT SOUTH
OF MINOT TO ABOUT HARVEY-CARRINGTON BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE VERY
DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH. AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WELL THUS LIMITING ANY -SN TO
ONLY THE FAR FAR SOUTHWEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR MUCH THERE. OTHERWISE
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
NRN FCST AREA THIS EVE AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTH WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST LOWS 10-15 BELOW
SEEMS GOOD WHILE ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE SOUTH WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN WCNTRL MN. TEMPS COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND WILL LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE -25 TO -35F RANGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE NRN VALLEY IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM SO WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADV AND HAVE IT
TAKE EFFECT AT ISSUANCE FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN FCST AREA WHERE IT
WILL TAKE EFFECT AT 03Z.

EXPECT A PRETTY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTH WITH ANY CLOUDS
CLEARING THE SOUTH. MAIN BRUNT OF COLD ADVECTION TO OUR EAST BUT
WITH COLD START AND LIGHT WINDS TEMP RECOVERY WILL BE A BIT
SLOWED. HOWEVER LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER MORE
THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE. NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD SUN NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE ND IN THE AFTN AND EXIT IN THE EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR -SN WITH THIS FEATURE. 12Z NAM WAS
OVERLY STRONG AND PREFER THE DRIER SOLNS FROM GFS/ECMWF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WHICH WAS LOOKING STRONGER
IS NOW ALMOST NON-EXISTANT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THUS LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY LEFT LOW POPS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH FCST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR RNOAML
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ACTIVE
STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRINGS
INCREASING THICKNESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IN TURN
INCREASES PRECIP CHCS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...PWATS AND
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN THE 90TH PERCENTILES OR 2 TO 3
TIMES THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTING CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH CIRRUS OR SKC THE NEXT 24HRS. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENING THIS EVENING...STILL SUSTAINED IN THE
VALLEY 12 TO 18 KTS OVERNIGHT...SLOWING TO UNDER 10KTS BY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA MOVING SOUTHEAST...WITH BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT DROPPING SOUTH THRU WRN ND...WITH A
NARROW BAND OF JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT EAST TO AREAS JSUT SOUTH
OF MINOT TO ABOUT HARVEY-CARRINGTON BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE VERY
DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH. AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AS WELL THUS LIMITING ANY -SN TO
ONLY THE FAR FAR SOUTHWEST AND MAY NOT OCCUR MUCH THERE. OTHERWISE
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
NRN FCST AREA THIS EVE AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTH WHERE
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST LOWS 10-15 BELOW
SEEMS GOOD WHILE ZERO TO 5 BELOW IN THE SOUTH WITH A FEW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE IN WCNTRL MN. TEMPS COMBINED WITH A BRISK NORTH-
NORTHEAST WIND WILL LOWER WIND CHILLS INTO THE -25 TO -35F RANGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE NRN VALLEY IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM SO WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADV AND HAVE IT
TAKE EFFECT AT ISSUANCE FOR ALL BUT FAR ERN FCST AREA WHERE IT
WILL TAKE EFFECT AT 03Z.

EXPECT A PRETTY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTH WITH ANY CLOUDS
CLEARING THE SOUTH. MAIN BRUNT OF COLD ADVECTION TO OUR EAST BUT
WITH COLD START AND LIGHT WINDS TEMP RECOVERY WILL BE A BIT
SLOWED. HOWEVER LACK OF SNOW COVER WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER MORE
THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE. NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD SUN NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE ND IN THE AFTN AND EXIT IN THE EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR -SN WITH THIS FEATURE. 12Z NAM WAS
OVERLY STRONG AND PREFER THE DRIER SOLNS FROM GFS/ECMWF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WHICH WAS LOOKING STRONGER
IS NOW ALMOST NON-EXISTANT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
THUS LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY LEFT LOW POPS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH FCST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR RNOAML
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ACTIVE
STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AMPLIFIES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND BRINGS
INCREASING THICKNESSES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IN TURN
INCREASES PRECIP CHCS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...PWATS AND
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT IN THE 90TH PERCENTILES OR 2 TO 3
TIMES THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTING CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH CIRRUS OR SKC THE NEXT 24HRS. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENING THIS EVENING...STILL SUSTAINED IN THE
VALLEY 12 TO 18 KTS OVERNIGHT...SLOWING TO UNDER 10KTS BY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK





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000
FXUS63 KBIS 312052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MAIN ISSUED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. THEN WIND CHILLS BECOME A CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL WHERE UP TO 3
INCHES MAY FALL BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THIS EVENING THEN SNOW WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG AN H300 JET REGION WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS FOLLOW
THE JET DYNAMICS AND FORM A SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. BELIEVE THERE
WILL ANOTHER 3 INCH BAND OF SNOW FROM BOWMAN NORTHEAST TO BISMARCK.
THE MOST RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER WILL BE FOUND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE
THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK THIS EVENING SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH SUPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT
TO ICE. THUS THERE WILL BE GOOD SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE LIMITED QPF
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS 25
TO 30 BELOW EXTENDING FROM BOTTINEAU COUNTY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
STUTSMAN COUNTY. TOWNS INCLUDED IN THIS AREA INCLUDE
BOTTINEAU...RUGBY... HARVEY AND JAMESTOWN.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL END. SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE BOT COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR THE EARLY AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO
BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THOUGHTS AS THIS WILL BE A BRIEF/MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AND AFTERNOON
IN THE CENTRAL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BASICALLY
PUTS A CAP ON RISING TEMPERATURES. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIGHT
WITH AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FOR TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION REMAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE MAIN SNOW AXIS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE NAM/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A WEAKER SCENARIO BUT
HAVE THIS AREA FARTHER EAST AS WELL. QPF TODAY VERSUS THE LAST FEW
RUNS HAVE LOWERED QUITE A BIT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW MORE
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS FURTHER SOUTH.
BOTH MODELS DEPICT DECENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THIS
PERIOD AND SNOW WOULD BE THE LIKELY CANDIDATE IN THE NORTH. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN/AROUND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT
KISN-KDIK-KMOT THIS AFTERNOON...AND KDIK-KBIS TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR MOST AREA AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 312052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MAIN ISSUED THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SPREADING
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT WIDESPREAD. THEN WIND CHILLS BECOME A CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL WHERE UP TO 3
INCHES MAY FALL BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THIS EVENING THEN SNOW WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG AN H300 JET REGION WHICH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS FOLLOW
THE JET DYNAMICS AND FORM A SNOW BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. BELIEVE THERE
WILL ANOTHER 3 INCH BAND OF SNOW FROM BOWMAN NORTHEAST TO BISMARCK.
THE MOST RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER WILL BE FOUND SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE
THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM DICKINSON TO BISMARCK THIS EVENING SHOW A
FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH SUPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT
TO ICE. THUS THERE WILL BE GOOD SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE LIMITED QPF
THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING...WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS 25
TO 30 BELOW EXTENDING FROM BOTTINEAU COUNTY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
STUTSMAN COUNTY. TOWNS INCLUDED IN THIS AREA INCLUDE
BOTTINEAU...RUGBY... HARVEY AND JAMESTOWN.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL END. SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE BOT COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR THE EARLY AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND
THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO
BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
THOUGHTS AS THIS WILL BE A BRIEF/MINOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING IN THE WEST AND AFTERNOON
IN THE CENTRAL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AGAIN TAKES CONTROL. PER
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND BASICALLY
PUTS A CAP ON RISING TEMPERATURES. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL REMAINS LIGHT
WITH AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

FOR TUESDAY...IT APPEARS THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION REMAINS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED THE MAIN SNOW AXIS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE NAM/ECMWF ALSO INDICATE A WEAKER SCENARIO BUT
HAVE THIS AREA FARTHER EAST AS WELL. QPF TODAY VERSUS THE LAST FEW
RUNS HAVE LOWERED QUITE A BIT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW MORE
LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN COMMENCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS FURTHER SOUTH.
BOTH MODELS DEPICT DECENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING DURING THIS
PERIOD AND SNOW WOULD BE THE LIKELY CANDIDATE IN THE NORTH. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN/AROUND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW FROM
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT
KISN-KDIK-KMOT THIS AFTERNOON...AND KDIK-KBIS TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA SUNDAY
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR MOST AREA AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER AT KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-022-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STRATOCU SOUTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS MOVING EASTWARD AND THICKEST
IN DVL BASIN AS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE OTHER THAN SOME VERY LOW POPS
IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST DRY. TEMPS STEADY IN MOST SPOTS
NOW THAT THE AFTERNOON IS ARRIVING. WIND CHILLS NR -25F IN NE ND
ATTM AND THIS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVE/TONIGHT IN NE
ND/NRN RRV  SO A WIND CHILL ADV PROBABLY NEEDED NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTING CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH CIRRUS OR SKC THE NEXT 24HRS. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENING THIS EVENING...STILL SUSTAINED IN THE
VALLEY 12 TO 18 KTS OVERNIGHT...SLOWING TO UNDER 10KTS BY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 311900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STRATOCU SOUTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS MOVING EASTWARD AND THICKEST
IN DVL BASIN AS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE OTHER THAN SOME VERY LOW POPS
IN THE FAR WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST DRY. TEMPS STEADY IN MOST SPOTS
NOW THAT THE AFTERNOON IS ARRIVING. WIND CHILLS NR -25F IN NE ND
ATTM AND THIS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVE/TONIGHT IN NE
ND/NRN RRV  SO A WIND CHILL ADV PROBABLY NEEDED NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTING CLOUDS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH CIRRUS OR SKC THE NEXT 24HRS. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WEAKENING THIS EVENING...STILL SUSTAINED IN THE
VALLEY 12 TO 18 KTS OVERNIGHT...SLOWING TO UNDER 10KTS BY MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CAUSING SOME MAJOR
REVISIONS IN THE SKY GRIDS AS A BIG CLEAR HOLE HAS OPENED UP
SOUTH CENTRAL AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE NAM SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS POTENTIAL FOR CREATING
SNOW. MODELS STILL HAVE MODEST QPF AMOUNTS. (THE LATEST HRRR QPF
THROUGH 04Z HAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25). BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES OVERALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION FOR THE 18Z FORECAST INCLUDES IFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST A A LARGE SNOW
REGION MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CAUSING SOME MAJOR
REVISIONS IN THE SKY GRIDS AS A BIG CLEAR HOLE HAS OPENED UP
SOUTH CENTRAL AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE NAM SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS POTENTIAL FOR CREATING
SNOW. MODELS STILL HAVE MODEST QPF AMOUNTS. (THE LATEST HRRR QPF
THROUGH 04Z HAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25). BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES OVERALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION FOR THE 18Z FORECAST INCLUDES IFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST A A LARGE SNOW
REGION MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CAUSING SOME MAJOR
REVISIONS IN THE SKY GRIDS AS A BIG CLEAR HOLE HAS OPENED UP
SOUTH CENTRAL AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE NAM SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS POTENTIAL FOR CREATING
SNOW. MODELS STILL HAVE MODEST QPF AMOUNTS. (THE LATEST HRRR QPF
THROUGH 04Z HAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25). BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES OVERALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION FOR THE 18Z FORECAST INCLUDES IFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST A A LARGE SNOW
REGION MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CAUSING SOME MAJOR
REVISIONS IN THE SKY GRIDS AS A BIG CLEAR HOLE HAS OPENED UP
SOUTH CENTRAL AS DRY NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE NAM SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS POTENTIAL FOR CREATING
SNOW. MODELS STILL HAVE MODEST QPF AMOUNTS. (THE LATEST HRRR QPF
THROUGH 04Z HAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25). BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES OVERALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION FOR THE 18Z FORECAST INCLUDES IFR
CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SNOW. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST A A LARGE SNOW
REGION MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
12Z NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311610
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 005 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SNOW OVER NW/NCNTRL ND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
ENCOUNTERING DEW PTS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THUS IT IS
DRYING UP ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
RUGBY-DEVILS LAKE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE SYSTEM ON COURSE AS FCST
TO GO AROUND THE EDGE OF A BUILDING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND THUS LIMITED IMPACTS FOR OUR FCST AREA. DID ADD SOME FLURRIES
TO WCNTRL MN AND PARTS OF SE ND AS SOME STRATOCU GIVING SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311610
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 005 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

INITIAL BAND OF SNOW OVER NW/NCNTRL ND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
ENCOUNTERING DEW PTS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THUS IT IS
DRYING UP ALTHOUGH A FEW FLAKES WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO
RUGBY-DEVILS LAKE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE SYSTEM ON COURSE AS FCST
TO GO AROUND THE EDGE OF A BUILDING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND THUS LIMITED IMPACTS FOR OUR FCST AREA. DID ADD SOME FLURRIES
TO WCNTRL MN AND PARTS OF SE ND AS SOME STRATOCU GIVING SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI








000
FXUS63 KBIS 311551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST BUFKIT MODEL ANALYSIS FOR THE NAM SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ITS POTENTIAL FOR CREATING
SNOW. MODELS STILL HAVE MODEST QPF AMOUNTS. (THE LATEST HRRR QPF
THROUGH 04Z HAS BETWEEN 0.15-0.25). BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
INCHES OVERALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL LOOK GOOD.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAR NORTH AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
SOUTHWEST INCLUDING KDIK SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 15 UTC.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KFGF 311303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311303
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO KEEP TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE RAP...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MID OR HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAR NORTH AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
SOUTHWEST INCLUDING KDIK SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 15 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 311237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DID EXTEND THE MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH 15 UTC ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. UPDATED
TEXT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAR NORTH AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE DAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
SOUTHWEST INCLUDING KDIK SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 15 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY/TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT DOES
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTERACTS WITH THE
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE. 00 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW. BY 6AM A LIGHT SNOW BAND SHOULD BEGIN
OVERSPREADING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF/NAM/SREF/GFS ALL
HAVE THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES LIMITING SOLAR INSULATION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY TONIGHT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL NEAR 20
BELOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY WITH A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 18 UTC SUNDAY.
LIGHT SNOWS FROM THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALL BUT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18 UTC...BUT DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS REMNANTS MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY BUT COLD SUNDAY.
WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD...OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY MORNING...UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH A 120KT JET INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND BRINGS VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ALL
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW IN A FAVORED
POSITION TO BRING LIGHT SNOWS TO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AMOUNTS HERE ARE DEFINITELY SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA AND AS A
FIRST GUESS HAVE GONE WITH HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. TAKING THE GFS OUT OF THE
BLEND WOULD YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS...MAYBE 1-2 INCHES IN THIS SAME
GENERAL AREA...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR...BUT STILL SUB-ADVISORY
SNOWS.

ANOTHER IMPULSE QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS TIME THERE IS A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IMPULSES
WILL INTERACT WITH OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOWS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE THE SMALLEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. IN GENERAL...WE ARE TALKING SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HINTS
AT SOME INDIRECT JET CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE TWO STRONG JETLETS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL.

ONE LAST IMPULSE KEEPS A LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE AREA AND PUTS AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WE THEN WARM UP QUICKLY THURSDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DIVES QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST. WE TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WE MAY NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT POSSIBLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310941
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF COLDER AIR AND
LOW END SNOW CHANCES.

A MARKED CHANGE FROM TEMPS YESTERDAY IS UNDERWAY WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A 1045 MB SFC
HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW. WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST TEMPS FALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 25
KTS...EFFECTIVE MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY MAV GUIDANCE AT GRAND FORKS/FARGO IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. IT
STILL APPEARS THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SKIRT PARTS
OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO FAR SE ND/WC MN LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WITH DRY NNE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO FULLY SATURATE
THE DRY LOW- LEVEL LAYER. DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FAVORS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN AN INCH...ON THE HIGH END.

THE QUESTION TONIGHT CONCERNING TEMPS WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C IN
THE NORTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CLEARING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. THUS...KEPT THE COLDEST LOW TEMPS UP
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH WARMER READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH. THESE TEMPS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER...THOUGH. WITH WINDS REMAINING AT LEAST IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE...WIND CHILLS MAY BE AN ISSUE...AND RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -25F WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION.

SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE VERY
COLD...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD. DID CONTINUE TO TREND ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY WITH
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO
OCCUR OVER NW MN...AND HAVE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...A QUICK DROP-OFF MAY OCCUR AREA-WIDE DURING THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SE ND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS VERY WEAK.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. THERE
WILL BE SOME MODERATING TEMPS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND POSSIBLY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FRIDAY DRY
THOUGH WITH TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH AS THE GENERAL W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH KGFK AND
KTVF HAVE BRIEFLY GONE UP TO VFR. THINK THIS WILL FILL BACK IN AS
THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME CLEARING IN THE WINNIPEG AREA TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT
MOVES BUT FOR NOW THINK WE WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKING UP OF STRATUS BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH WESTERN ND.
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE 4000-7000 FT RANGE BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERED CIGS A BIT AT KDVL AND KFAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SNOW BAND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ENTER
FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AND CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ENTER
FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AND CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310544
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CLEAR SPOT IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IS STILL FILLING IN AND TEMPS ARE STILL FALLING INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH KGFK AND
KTVF HAVE BRIEFLY GONE UP TO VFR. THINK THIS WILL FILL BACK IN AS
THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SOME CLEARING IN THE WINNIPEG AREA TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT
MOVES BUT FOR NOW THINK WE WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKING UP OF STRATUS BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE MOVING IN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH WESTERN ND.
WILL KEEP VFR CIGS IN THE 4000-7000 FT RANGE BUT EVENTUALLY
LOWERED CIGS A BIT AT KDVL AND KFAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SNOW BAND. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310353
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310353
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310353
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310353
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE CLOUDY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR TOMORROW...PUT IN SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OUTSIDE
THE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BASED ON A FEW SPITS SHOWING UP IN
CANADA AND TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310318
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310318
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310318
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310318
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO PUSH LEADING EDGE OF
LOW CLOUD COVER A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POUR IN. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS
UPSTREAM IN THE TEENS AND 20S...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRETTY
SLOW FALL FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH GOT QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE COOLER AS THEY
DID NOT GET AS WARM...AND ANY LINGER SNOW OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS
WILL TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DRY AIR UNDER THE SFC TROUGH AXIS HAS KEPT KFAR AND KGFK VFR...BUT
SAT LOOP SHOWS THE LOWER CIGS COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING KDVL CURRENTLY WAS LAGGING
BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT. THINK THAT ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MVFR BY 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE STRATUS COMES INTO
THE REGION. THE KTVF AND POSSIBLY KBJI COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN WARM AIR ADVECTION STRATUS AND THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE COMING UP TO THE 4000-10000 FT
RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO CENTRAL ND.
NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES...SO KEPT EVERYWHERE DRY FOR NOW. BUT DID DROP KDVL BACK
DOWN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP COMES CLOSE TO THAT
AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR FORECAST UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS COLD AIR POURS
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN...AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 302152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS NOW (18Z) EAST OF THE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KTVF AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE NORTH...AND
BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE GUSTY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 302152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

JET STREAM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
JET WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT. NEXT JET SEGMENT MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MON AND WILL TEMPER THE COLD AIR. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SD SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. NEXT
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN/HUDSON BAY. TROUGH WILL
ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND SAT AND SEND COLD AIR
ACROSS THE BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES. THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR -SN CHANCES
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A WARMUP
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY WITHOUT ANY DETAILS WILL BE -SN
ON TUESDAY...THEN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS NOW (18Z) EAST OF THE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KTVF AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE NORTH...AND
BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE GUSTY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST AT SUNRISE
TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. PATH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE E IN DICKINSON TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BY LATE MORNING LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST AT SUNRISE
TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. PATH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE E IN DICKINSON TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BY LATE MORNING LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND. SURFACE MIXING RATIOS
INCREASING WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AND GOOD PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE
TROUGH. TWEAKED TEMPS UP MAINLY ON THE ND SIDE A BIT WITH SUNSHINE.
ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASED TEMPS IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

TWEAKED WINDS A BIT...HIGHER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS NOW (18Z) EAST OF THE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KTVF AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE NORTH...AND
BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE GUSTY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301902
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ND. SURFACE MIXING RATIOS
INCREASING WITH THE SOUTH WINDS AND GOOD PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF THE
TROUGH. TWEAKED TEMPS UP MAINLY ON THE ND SIDE A BIT WITH SUNSHINE.
ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASED TEMPS IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

TWEAKED WINDS A BIT...HIGHER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS NOW (18Z) EAST OF THE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS KTVF AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE KBJI AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE NORTH...AND
BRINGING BACK MVFR CIGS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE GUSTY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

COOL AIR STRATUS LEADING EDGE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOURIS RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOWING
UP AT ESTEVAN. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
BURKE..WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING TO MID 20S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1156 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

COOL AIR STRATUS LEADING EDGE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SOURIS RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOWING
UP AT ESTEVAN. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
BURKE..WARD AND RENVILLE COUNTIES AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING TO MID 20S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301606
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASED TEMPS IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

TWEAKED WINDS A BIT...HIGHER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK





000
FXUS63 KFGF 301606
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET WAS NOSING INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. FOG LOOP INDICATED
CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASED TEMPS IN THE EAST FOR TODAY.

TWEAKED WINDS A BIT...HIGHER IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED SKY
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN MODERATE
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S WHICH IS QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. UPDATE TO CLOUDS
THE ONLY CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH AROUND 14-15 UTC.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH AROUND 14-15 UTC.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 301240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF MVFR-IFR CLOUDS FROM BOTTINEAU TO HARVEY AND WISHEK WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MADE SOME MINOR SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND BUMPED UP SOUTHERLY
WINDS JUST A LITTLE THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH AROUND 14-15 UTC.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE NORTH IS LIKELY PRODUCING A DUSTING
OR SO...WITH VSBYS BRIEFLY GOING DOWN TO ABOUT 2-3SM. THIS BAND IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...THEN ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BY NOON. ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
WILL BE UNDER 1 INCH WHERE IT DOES SNOW...AND HAVE LOWERED ACCUMS.
HAVE INCREASED SOUTH WINDS A BIT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY...AND COULD LINGER
EVEN INTO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND GUST
TO AROUND 25KT AFTER FROPA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH NORTH. THE HRRR IS
DOING A REASONABLE JOB DEPICTING THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS IN
THE 925MB MOISTURE FIELD. THE HRRR HAS THE AREA OF STRATUS
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 AM.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
HAVE THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY ABOUT 11 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAVORED FOR
A NICE QUICK WARM UP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND A WARM FRONT
NEARBY THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOW
50S. THE NORTH SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
EARLIER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK WITH A NUMBER OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. THEN POSSIBLY A
RETURN TO MORE MILD CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN PERIOD
AND USED A MODEL BLEND WITH WPC QPF FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...00 UTC FRIDAY MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WHILE THE GEM HAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF.
HOWEVER A BLEND STILL YIELDS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE...CLOSE TO WPC
FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A 120KT UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING
INTO MONTANA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THIS SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE
EXPANDED CATEGORICAL POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT TAPERING QUICKLY TO LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION FROM AROUND SHERWOOD TO RUGBY AND CARRINGTON.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW...BUT WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OR LESS. THIS SYSTEM IS QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES WHICH INDUCES SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION TUESDAY. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD
SNOWS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
CATEGORY SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER WOULD
RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT THIS FAR OUT THINGS CAN
CERTAINLY CHANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE GFS/GEM SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HOWEVER KEEPS A QUASI ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION LONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER IMPULSE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING US
ONE LAST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS BEFORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WE MIGHT BREAK THE COLD AND ACTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR THINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS WITH EACH SYSTEM BUT
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BEGIN TO ADD UP. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST SYSTEM AND INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SNOWS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300933
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TODAY IN NW MN...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT IN THE
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS FORECAST WITH REGARD TO
COLD AIR THAT WILL OVERSPREAD REGION SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING IN
EXTREME NE ND INTO NW MN NEAR AN UPPER JET STREAK...AND MID LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF LAKE OF THE
WOODS/NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE COULD BE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO THE TEENS SOUTH.

ON SAT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK TO PERHAPS WINDY AT
TIMES...WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING A FEW
DEGREES. IT WILL FEEL COLD GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN MILD...AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN THE NORTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY
SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND WIND CHILLS. IF SNOW FALLS IN THE
SOUTH...WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30MPH COULD PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD/DRY HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
IN...MODELS COULD BE OVERDONE WITH QPF/SNOW SO FEELING THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. IT WILL BE COLD THOUGH WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE IN OTHER AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT...KEEPING TEMPS
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ABSENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN WITH SUCH SYSTEMS...THE PREDICTABILITY (TIMING AND
LOCATION)IS QUITE LOW AT THIS RANGE...WITH POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. HOWEVER...LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS.
THE GFS/ECMWF DO INDICATE A COLDER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPS DOWN TO -20C. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AIR MASS...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND
IN TEMPS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

KDVL REMAINS AT MVFR WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN...AND HAVE STAYED VFR. THINK THE FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING KGFK AND KFAR
TO MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES A BIT AFTER. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR FOR A WHILE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOME MORE MVFR CIGS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 12 KTS AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN JAMES VALLEY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300631
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. INCREASED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN JAMES VALLEY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300541
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL DECK REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND HAS NOT MOVED BACK EAST YET. THINK THAT AS WINDS
SHIFT LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE STRATUS MOVING BACK EAST AND
MORE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO
COME BACK UP LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

KDVL REMAINS AT MVFR WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN...AND HAVE STAYED VFR. THINK THE FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING KGFK AND KFAR
TO MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES A BIT AFTER. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR FOR A WHILE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOME MORE MVFR CIGS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 12 KTS AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300541
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL DECK REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND HAS NOT MOVED BACK EAST YET. THINK THAT AS WINDS
SHIFT LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE STRATUS MOVING BACK EAST AND
MORE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO
COME BACK UP LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

KDVL REMAINS AT MVFR WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN...AND HAVE STAYED VFR. THINK THE FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING KGFK AND KFAR
TO MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES A BIT AFTER. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR FOR A WHILE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOME MORE MVFR CIGS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 12 KTS AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER KDVL AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME SPOTTY STRATUS LINGERS OVER THE
KBJI AREA. THE CENTRAL TAF SITES ARE CLEAR HOWEVER...AND THINK
THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KGFK AND KTVF GOING BACK DOWN
TO MVFR TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL OVERALL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THINK IT
WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MIXED IN AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR TOMORROW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE AGAIN ADDRESSED CLOUD COVER WITH LOW
STRATUS CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ALSO ADDRESSED SOME ADDITIONAL LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO
ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AS CLOUD
COVER MAY AGAIN NEED TO BE INCREASED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 300052
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER KDVL AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME SPOTTY STRATUS LINGERS OVER THE
KBJI AREA. THE CENTRAL TAF SITES ARE CLEAR HOWEVER...AND THINK
THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KGFK AND KTVF GOING BACK DOWN
TO MVFR TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL OVERALL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THINK IT
WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MIXED IN AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300052
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

BAND OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER KDVL AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME SPOTTY STRATUS LINGERS OVER THE
KBJI AREA. THE CENTRAL TAF SITES ARE CLEAR HOWEVER...AND THINK
THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KGFK AND KTVF GOING BACK DOWN
TO MVFR TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL OVERALL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT THINK IT
WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS MIXED IN AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 300033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







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