[top]
000
FXUS63 KFGF 211157
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR TIMING...BUT THE MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE
WAS TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. COOPERSTOWN HAS BEEN HANGING ON
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT IS THE ONLY SITE THAT STRONG
ANYMORE AS EVERYWHERE ELSE HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED.
WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY BUT WITH RAIN PICKING UP AGAIN WILL
KEEP THE FLOOD PRODUCTS WE HAVE GOING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER SD...AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CWA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE IS A BIT
MORE SCATTERED BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN GET WET AT SOME POINT
TODAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
CONTINUED TO HAVE DECREASING POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HANGING ON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
HIGHER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
READINGS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND
LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE IMPULSES
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY IN THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING. SOME DROPS IN VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. THINK THAT THE CEILINGS WILL
COME UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SITES IN THE MVFR RANGE.
SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT FOR
NOW JUST HAVE KDVL GOING TO VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG THE
PEMBINA RIVER. WALHALLA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NECHE CONTINUES TO RISE QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT
MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...WHERE STAGES MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WAHPETON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE
CREST INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THESE THREE POINTS.
AREAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WALSH...PEMBINA...AND PARTS OF CAVALIER COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
[top]
000
FXUS63 KBIS 211140
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
GRADIENT FLOW HAS DECREASED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A SURFACE
LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MODIFIED HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
000
FXUS63 KBIS 210914
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION.
CURRENTLY...LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...CENTERED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. RAIN IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH MOST OBS REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN RATHER THAN MODERATE OR HEAVY. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVER MY EAST BUT AM STILL SEEING GUSTY WINDS AT ROLLA
AND RUGBY TO OVER 40 MPH. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS
IS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND NORTH IF I94 WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
100KT JET STREAK SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS TODAY...WILL ALL HELP TO NUDGE THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SEVERAL MORE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES DECREASE NORTH LATER
TODAY...WITH THIS TREND (DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH WITH FURTHER
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERIODIC ENERGY TRAVERSING THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...CONTINUED TO BROAD
BRUSH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY AND TARGET WHICH DAY WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IF ANY SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPS AT ALL. AS A RESULT...SIDED WITH THE SPC AND THINK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z FOR
KMOT-KISN...ALONG WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ALL TERMINALS.
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...NH
000
FXUS63 KFGF 210845
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WV LOOP HAS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ROTATE OVER SD...AND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL
BEGIN TO RELAX BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH 15Z AND THINK THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH CWA ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE IS A BIT
MORE SCATTERED BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN GET WET AT SOME POINT
TODAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGH POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TODAY WITH DIMINISHING PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA.
CONTINUED TO HAVE DECREASING POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE HANGING ON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
HIGHER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THAT AREA WITH LOWER
READINGS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND
LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND 40
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RECOVERY ON
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GETS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL OR SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE IMPULSES
IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AND
ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT WALHALLA AND NECHE ALONG THE
PEMBINA RIVER. WALHALLA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT IN
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
NECHE CONTINUES TO RISE QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT
MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...WHERE STAGES MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS...ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WAHPETON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE
CREST INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR
THESE THREE POINTS.
AREAL FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WALSH...PEMBINA...AND PARTS OF CAVALIER COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE OCCURRED. INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUND
MAY LEAD TO SOME OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF THE REGION.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF PEMBINA COUNTY
AS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED FLOODWATERS TO
APPROACH THE TOP OF THE SPILLWAY AT THE RENWICK DAM. RIVER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-038-054.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-
027>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
000
FXUS63 KBIS 210609
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO TRIM THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH WINDS DECREASING ALONG TO WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
OTHERWISE THE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH RAIN CONTINUING
MOST AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT WINDS
SOUTHWEST TO DROP SOON. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE
WEST. WILL KEEP IT GOING IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DID
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 7 AM BASED MAINLY ON RAP ANALYSIS KEEPING 40-45 KNOT WINDS
AT 925MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TAF
SITES...KJMS...THROUGH THIS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-036-037.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KBIS 210308
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXPECT WINDS
SOUTHWEST TO DROP SOON. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY IN THE
WEST. WILL KEEP IT GOING IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DID
EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 7 AM BASED MAINLY ON RAP ANALYSIS KEEPING 40-45 KNOT WINDS
AT 925MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 210255
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
POINT. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS DECREASING ACROSS THE
EASTERN FA...BUT THIS WAS HANDLED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE...AND
THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL AGAIN FILL IN BY LATER TONIGHT. THE
STEADIER RAINS MAY COME TO AN END...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STILL
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITHIN EACH 6 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS ARE
ALSO ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING.
MADE SOME CALLS AROUND THE REGION IN AN ATTEMPT TO SEE IF THERE
ARE ANY AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS (OTHER THAN WHERE THE CURRENT
AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED). REPORTS INDICATE THAT EVEN WHERE
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED...NO PROBLEMS OTHER THAN MINOR PONDING
EXIST. ONE THOUGHT IS THAT MOST AREAS HAVE BEEN WITHOUT SNOWCOVER
FOR SOME TIME...AND MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOAK INTO
THE GROUND. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE CURRENT AREAL FLOOD
WARNING...SNOWCOVER LASTED LONGER...AND THE SOIL IS MORE SATURATED
WHICH IS CAUSING MUCH MORE RUNOFF (PLUS THIS AREA GOT A LOT MORE
RAIN). THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS WATER MAY STILL BE RUNNING OFF AND COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
PROBLEMS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
CONTINUING TO WATCH WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA...AND SO FAR THEY ARE
REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
CONSIDERING THERE IS NO STRONG MECHANISM TO MIX THE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. LAV GUIDANCE IS DOING WELL WITH CURRENT WIND SPEEDS...AND
INDICATES 30-40MPH WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THE RAP INDICATES WINDS ALOFT (925MB)
REMAIN AOA 35 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z TUE. WILL EXTENT THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL 15Z TUE.
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH AN AREA
OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND WILL NOT ADJUST POPS TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS ACROSS THE SE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.
FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE RED
RIVER BASIN AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...
ONE INCH TO ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FELL OVER BUFFALO
RIVER BASIN AND THE RED RIVER BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF WAHPETON.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEW FORECASTS PUSHING THE CREST INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR THESE THREE
POINTS.
THREE TO FIVE INCHES TOTAL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SITES ALONG THE FOREST AND PARK RIVERS ARE RISING
RAPIDLY. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF AREAL FLOODING TO RUN OFF INTO
THESE RIVERS...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT WALHALLA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING.
A WARNING FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...SPEICHER
000
FXUS63 KBIS 210034
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
QUICK UPDATE JUST TO FRESHEN UP GRIDS NOT UPDATED WITH THE
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH NEXT UPDATE MAY NEED TO LOOK INTO EXTENDING EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 210009
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
CONTINUING TO WATCH WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA...AND SO FAR THEY ARE
REMAINING WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
CONSIDERING THERE IS NO STRONG MECHANISM TO MIX THE WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. LAV GUIDANCE IS DOING WELL WITH CURRENT WIND SPEEDS...AND
INDICATES 30-40MPH WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THE RAP INDICATES WINDS ALOFT (925MB)
REMAIN AOA 35 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z TUE. WILL EXTENT THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FA UNTIL 15Z TUE.
STEADY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...WITH AN AREA
OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE VALLEY. WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW...AND WILL NOT ADJUST POPS TOO
MUCH. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS ACROSS THE SE FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.
FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PERIODS OF RAINFALL. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW...LIKELY
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. WINDS STRONGEST AT KDVL...WITH
KGFK AND KTVF ALSO GUSTY. KBJI AND KFAR ARE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST WIND SPEEDS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
BY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-
026-028-038-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB
000
FXUS63 KBIS 202239
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
539 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPDATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WILL EXTEND THE
WIND ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94.
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST TO 48KTS RECORDED AT ROLLA. CURRENT GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED BACK TO AROUND 40-42 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF WIND AT 925 MB
THROUGH MID EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALSO 850 KNOT WINDS
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF...WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER SOUTH TO ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND
KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...HOLDING OFF ON
A HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 202233
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WATCHING WINDS ACROSS THE NW FA VERY CLOSELY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS AN AREA FROM ROLLA TO LANGDON WHERE THE AWOS SITES HAVE BEEN
FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (BOTH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS). THE RAP INDICATES THE ADIABATIC LAYER WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND 925MB WINDS WILL INCREASE. THE LAV
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
WINDS...AND INDICATES 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA
AT 00Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL MONITOR IT CLOSELY. THE RAP AND LAV GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY WARBLES SOUTHWARD...AND WILL
EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE COOPERSTOWN AND VALLEY CITY
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.
FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT KDVL BUT KGFK/KTVF WILL STILL
SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY EAST-NE WINDS. KBJI AND KFAR WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FOR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TOUGH TO CALL BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS
WET. WILL STICK WITH STEADY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS. CLOUD HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE INCREASING A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026-028-038-054.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...WJB
000
FXUS63 KFGF 202049
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERY SEVERE FLOODING SITUATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. KMVX 88D STORM PRECIP TOTALS EITHER VIA LEGACY STP OR THE
NEW DUAL POL ARE WOEFULLY UNDERDONE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. SENT OUT A LONG LIST OF RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH POCKET OF 4-6 INCHES OR MORE FROM HOMME
DAM NEAR PARK RIVER ND UP THROUGH CRYSTAL TO MOUNTAIN ND TO
WALHALLA. LOTS OF CREEK FLOODING AND OVERLAND FLOODING THERE AND
UPDATED AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN...THOUGH A BIT DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD MEAN RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER AS THE
NIGHT GOES ALONG. SOME THUNDER IN DRY SLOT FROM LITTLE FALLS TO ST
CLOUD AND SOME ISOLD THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS EVE. OTHERWISE JUST RAIN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OR A BIT MORE
THRU TONIGHT ISOLD 1 INCH MORE IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
AREAS HAVE HAD THE LEAST AND CAN TAKE IT. WILL MAINTAIN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH AS ISSUED EARLIER.
FOR WINDS EXPANDED WIND ADV TO ROSEAU COUNTY AS ROX AWOS CONTINUES
TO SEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THRU 03Z BEFORE THEY DIMINISH.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPR LOW AND SFC LOW STACKED SOUTH OF SISSETON
AND THIS LOW WILL BE STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE LIGHTER RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY....BUT FOCUS MORE ON THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
MOVING SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WED NIGH INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
COMING IN. FOR THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MOST OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS THE FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ACTIVE
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FA FOR BASICALLY THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE SHOWING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST FLOW ERODING SOME OF THIS PCPN
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST FA. THEREFORE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD PROBABLY BE OVER THE WESTERN FA WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT KDVL BUT KGFK/KTVF WILL STILL
SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY EAST-NE WINDS. KBJI AND KFAR WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FOR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TOUGH TO CALL BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS
WET. WILL STICK WITH STEADY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS. CLOUD HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE INCREASING A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON AND ITS SOUTHERN VALLEY MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EITHER INSUFFICIENT OR RUNOFF DUBIOUS TO
FORCE THESE POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE DURING THIS EVENT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004-005-007.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...WJB
000
FXUS63 KBIS 202030
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACTS OF THE
ONGOING RAINFALL EVENT.
OVERALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE 12 UTC GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS.
CURRENTLY THE STACKED LOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. WRAP AROUND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DOWNTREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...DID MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE WEST AND NORTH. THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THESE AREAS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 40-45 KTS AT THE TOP OF A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AS
DEPICTED BY THE 12 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT RAINS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER IA/WI/IL AND THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN THE VERY HIGH/LIKELY
CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL LESSEN
TO SCATTERED IN NATURE BY WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST...A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES. THUS NO PRECIPITATION
MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SETTING UP A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL MEAN PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL RESULT IN BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALLOWING PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD. A PROLONGED LOW LEVEL JET AT H925-H850
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND ENERGY NORTHWARD UP THE PLAINS.
THUS PERIODIC EPISODES OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC
AREAS OF CONCERN...SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
AND FORECAST CAPE DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD SUGGEST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN...KMOT AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
DID MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CALLS TO AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS REVEAL THAT
FOR THE MOST PART...COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROAD IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE...OVERLAND FLOOD CONCERNS
COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...REPORTS HAVE BEEN
COMING IN OF WATER ENTERING BASEMENTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
SATURATED GROUND. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE SOURIS RIVER AT TOWNER IS EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AGAIN...THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE IS
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY POSSIBLY APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KBIS 201843
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
143 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ONCE AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 18 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERMINE HOW THE GROUND IS TAKING THE CURRENT RAINFALL TO SEE
IF THE FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO BE CONTINUED OR UPGRADED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. THE FORECAST WAS BLENDED TO
THE 15 UTC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 13 UTC HRRR/RAP/LAMP TO CAPTURE THE
NEAR TERM TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL RE-EVALUATE IF PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD
WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GROUND HAS
SHOWN A LARGE CAPACITY TO HANDLE THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR WIND
ADVISORY/FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT NOW IS FOCUSED
UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEMS TROWAL...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING BACK WEST AS EMBEDDED ENERGY PIVOTS BACK WEST
AROUND THE LOW. DECENT AERIAL COVERAGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH EARLIER HAD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MUCAPE 250-500 J/KG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MY WEST AND NORTH.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...SOMETIMES HIGHER TO NEAR 45 MPH.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...THEN
RETROGRADES BACK SOUTHWEST TO OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO
WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW CONCERNING THIS AND THE
FLOOD WATCH.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED WEST AND NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO MY WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL IF WE CAN MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER 00Z.
ONE THING OF INTEREST VIA THE 00Z GFS/EC...AND THE 00Z/06Z
NAM...IS THE COOLING ALOFT NEAR 850MB TO FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WEST AND CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE GFS
MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB...AS WELL AS A WARM LAYER
FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. THE 06Z NAM IS NOT AS WARM...AND IS
SUBFREEZING OVER MY SOUTHWEST FROM 850MB AND UP...AND ALSO
ADVERTISES A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS ALL RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT FALL OUT OF MY CHAIR IF A FLAKE
OR TWO ACTUALLY REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOUTH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KISN...KMOT AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR NOW...HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABLE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE SOIL. THIS IS LIMITING RUNOFF GENERATION WITH
MANY POINTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND JAMES BASINS HAVING LOWERED
FORECAST STAGES AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...RK
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 201811
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AT MIDDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. A BREAK IN THE RAIN NOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN (OR AT LEAST A LESSENING) AND THAT WILL MOVE
IN THIS AFTN FROM THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA HEAVIEST
CAVALIER-PEMBINA COUNTY REGION WITH ISOLD 4-6 EASTERN CAVALIER-W
PEMBINA AND NORTH CENTRAL WALSH COUNTIES WHERE AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
LOWERED TEMPS ALL AREAS A BIT TODAY WITH MINIMAL RISE EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS STILL HALLOCK AREA AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF
WIND ADV STILL IN NORTHEAST ND SO WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AS THE LOW ROTATES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
TODAY WITH MORE EXPECTED TOMORROW. EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES SEEM THAT THEY COULD SEE THE MOST AS MODELS SHOW
THE 700MB DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING OVER THE AREA. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SOME OVERLAND FLOODING IN WESTERN PEMBINA
COUNTY...SO ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE OVERLAND FLOOD PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE THERE HAS NOT BEEN TIME TO SOAK IN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY HAD HALF AN INCH OR SO. DUE TO THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. GFS HAS SOME WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AT 900MB THAT COULD MIX
DOWN AND MAKE KDVL AREA VERY GUSTY...BUT THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS MORNING
AS THE SFC LOW HEADS EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. WILL
KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AND HAVE EXTENDED IT A BIT
INTO THIS EVENING AS IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR WINDS TO DIE OFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL IT WILL SINK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT VERY HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PRECIP BANDS AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
THAT AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
MORE SUN AND GET A BIT WARMER. THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AT KDVL BUT KGFK/KTVF WILL STILL
SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY EAST-NE WINDS. KBJI AND KFAR WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LOWER FOR WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
LOW. EXACT VSBYS AND CEILINGS TOUGH TO CALL BUT IT DEFINITELY LOOKS
WET. WILL STICK WITH STEADY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN THOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY BREAKS. CLOUD HEIGHTS SEEM TO BE INCREASING A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PEMBINA RIVER AT
WALHALLA. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE
FORECASTS BASED ON FUTURE PRECIP AS WELL AS PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PEMBINA COUNTY...WITH SOME
REPORTS OF OVERLAND FLOODING NEAR MOUNTAIN ND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AND SURROUNDING TRIBUTARIES MAY REACH
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THESE
FORECASTS...AND THE RIVER RESPONSES WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE RAINFALL RUNS OFF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
000
FXUS63 KBIS 201511
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS WELL ON TRACK. THE FORECAST WAS BLENDED TO
THE 15 UTC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 13 UTC HRRR/RAP/LAMP TO CAPTURE THE
NEAR TERM TRENDS. NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY OR THE FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL RE-EVALUATE IF PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD
WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GROUND HAS
SHOWN A LARGE CAPACITY TO HANDLE THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR WIND
ADVISORY/FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT NOW IS FOCUSED
UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEMS TROWAL...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING BACK WEST AS EMBEDDED ENERGY PIVOTS BACK WEST
AROUND THE LOW. DECENT AERIAL COVERAGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH EARLIER HAD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MUCAPE 250-500 J/KG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MY WEST AND NORTH.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...SOMETIMES HIGHER TO NEAR 45 MPH.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...THEN
RETROGRADES BACK SOUTHWEST TO OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO
WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW CONCERNING THIS AND THE
FLOOD WATCH.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED WEST AND NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO MY WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL IF WE CAN MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER 00Z.
ONE THING OF INTEREST VIA THE 00Z GFS/EC...AND THE 00Z/06Z
NAM...IS THE COOLING ALOFT NEAR 850MB TO FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WEST AND CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE GFS
MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB...AS WELL AS A WARM LAYER
FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. THE 06Z NAM IS NOT AS WARM...AND IS
SUBFREEZING OVER MY SOUTHWEST FROM 850MB AND UP...AND ALSO
ADVERTISES A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS ALL RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT FALL OUT OF MY CHAIR IF A FLAKE
OR TWO ACTUALLY REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOUTH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR NOW...HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABLE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE SOIL. THIS IS LIMITING RUNOFF GENERATION WITH
MANY POINTS ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND JAMES BASINS HAVING LOWERED
FORECAST STAGES AS A RESULT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...RK
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 201208
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MAIN CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN TO GO WITH AN AREAL
FLOOD WATCH. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS COMING IN SHOW THAT THE RADAR
HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL IN SPOTS. GIVEN THAT WE ALREADY
HAVE SOME REPORTS OF RURAL ROADS IN PEMBINA COUNTY UNDER DUE TO
OVERLAND FLOODING AND THE FACT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR MORE ON
TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THROUGH TOMORROW...WILL GO WITH A
WATCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ALSO EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY TO 06Z AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS PICKING UP THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AS THE LOW ROTATES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
TODAY WITH MORE EXPECTED TOMORROW. EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES SEEM THAT THEY COULD SEE THE MOST AS MODELS SHOW
THE 700MB DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING OVER THE AREA. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SOME OVERLAND FLOODING IN WESTERN PEMBINA
COUNTY...SO ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE OVERLAND FLOOD PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE THERE HAS NOT BEEN TIME TO SOAK IN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY HAD HALF AN INCH OR SO. DUE TO THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. GFS HAS SOME WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AT 900MB THAT COULD MIX
DOWN AND MAKE KDVL AREA VERY GUSTY...BUT THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS MORNING
AS THE SFC LOW HEADS EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. WILL
KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AND HAVE EXTENDED IT A BIT
INTO THIS EVENING AS IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR WINDS TO DIE OFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL IT WILL SINK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT VERY HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PRECIP BANDS AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
THAT AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
MORE SUN AND GET A BIT WARMER. THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH RAIN ON AND OFF. HARD TO TELL JUST WHEN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL COME INTO THE TAF SITES AND TAKE CONDITIONS LOWER. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. THINK THAT THE RAIN AND 700-1500 FT
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER WINDS
AROUND KDVL OF 25 TO 35 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PEMBINA RIVER AT
WALHALLA. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE
FORECASTS BASED ON FUTURE PRECIP AS WELL AS PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PEMBINA COUNTY...WITH SOME
REPORTS OF OVERLAND FLOODING NEAR MOUNTAIN ND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AND SURROUNDING TRIBUTARIES MAY REACH
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THESE
FORECASTS...AND THE RIVER RESPONSES WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE RAINFALL RUNS OFF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
000
FXUS63 KBIS 201155
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
655 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NO SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR WIND
ADVISORY/FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT NOW IS FOCUSED
UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEMS TROWAL...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING BACK WEST AS EMBEDDED ENERGY PIVOTS BACK WEST
AROUND THE LOW. DECENT AERIAL COVERAGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH EARLIER HAD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MUCAPE 250-500 J/KG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MY WEST AND NORTH.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...SOMETIMES HIGHER TO NEAR 45 MPH.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...THEN
RETROGRADES BACK SOUTHWEST TO OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO
WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW CONCERNING THIS AND THE
FLOOD WATCH.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED WEST AND NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO MY WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL IF WE CAN MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER 00Z.
ONE THING OF INTEREST VIA THE 00Z GFS/EC...AND THE 00Z/06Z
NAM...IS THE COOLING ALOFT NEAR 850MB TO FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WEST AND CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE GFS
MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB...AS WELL AS A WARM LAYER
FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. THE 06Z NAM IS NOT AS WARM...AND IS
SUBFREEZING OVER MY SOUTHWEST FROM 850MB AND UP...AND ALSO
ADVERTISES A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS ALL RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT FALL OUT OF MY CHAIR IF A FLAKE
OR TWO ACTUALLY REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOUTH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE/REDEVELOP OVER ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE RIVER POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE THANKS TO THE
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALL THE FORECASTS ARE VERY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO USERS ARE ASKED TO CHECK BACK
FREQUENTLY FOR UPDATES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR OVERLAND
FLOODING AND LOCAL RISES ON SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE/LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...NH
000
FXUS63 KBIS 200932
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
TO WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS/CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND/WITHIN
THE LARGE LOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RIGHT NOW IS FOCUSED
UNDERNEATH THE SYSTEMS TROWAL...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION GROWING IN AERIAL COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MOVING BACK WEST AS EMBEDDED ENERGY PIVOTS BACK WEST
AROUND THE LOW. DECENT AERIAL COVERAGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH EARLIER HAD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MUCAPE 250-500 J/KG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MY WEST AND NORTH.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA...SOMETIMES HIGHER TO NEAR 45 MPH.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...THEN
RETROGRADES BACK SOUTHWEST TO OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED ENERGY ROTATING WITHIN THE LOW AND
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO
WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW CONCERNING THIS AND THE
FLOOD WATCH.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED WEST AND NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE TODAY/THIS
EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY CONFINED TO MY WEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL IF WE CAN MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER 00Z.
ONE THING OF INTEREST VIA THE 00Z GFS/EC...AND THE 00Z/06Z
NAM...IS THE COOLING ALOFT NEAR 850MB TO FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WEST AND CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE GFS
MAINTAINS A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-850MB...AS WELL AS A WARM LAYER
FROM 850MB TO THE SURFACE. THE 06Z NAM IS NOT AS WARM...AND IS
SUBFREEZING OVER MY SOUTHWEST FROM 850MB AND UP...AND ALSO
ADVERTISES A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS ALL RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT FALL OUT OF MY CHAIR IF A FLAKE
OR TWO ACTUALLY REACHED THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
RIVER AND OVERLAND FLOODING CONCERNS. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR DETAILS. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MOST LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH SOUTH WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE/REDEVELOP OVER ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE RIVER POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH ACTION STAGE OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE THANKS TO THE
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALL THE FORECASTS ARE VERY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO USERS ARE ASKED TO CHECK BACK
FREQUENTLY FOR UPDATES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR OVERLAND
FLOODING AND LOCAL RISES ON SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...NH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
000
FXUS63 KFGF 200839
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PRECIP AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SD WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA AS THE LOW ROTATES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH
TODAY WITH MORE EXPECTED TOMORROW. EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS POINT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES SEEM THAT THEY COULD SEE THE MOST AS MODELS SHOW
THE 700MB DEFORMATION BAND PIVOTING OVER THE AREA. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SOME OVERLAND FLOODING IN WESTERN PEMBINA
COUNTY...SO ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THAT REGION. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ENOUGH RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE OVERLAND FLOOD PROBLEMS IN
AREAS WHERE THERE HAS NOT BEEN TIME TO SOAK IN. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY HAD HALF AN INCH OR SO. DUE TO THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THE RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE TIME BEING.
THE SFC LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. GFS HAS SOME WINDS NEAR 50 KTS AT 900MB THAT COULD MIX
DOWN AND MAKE KDVL AREA VERY GUSTY...BUT THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG. SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER ON THIS MORNING
AS THE SFC LOW HEADS EAST AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. WILL
KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW AND HAVE EXTENDED IT A BIT
INTO THIS EVENING AS IT MAY TAKE A BIT FOR WINDS TO DIE OFF.
THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL IT WILL SINK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT VERY HIGH POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PRECIP BANDS AT LEAST OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO KEPT POPS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
THAT AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW 60...WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE
MORE SUN AND GET A BIT WARMER. THE DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SFC RIDGE NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR NORTH. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 06Z...REACHING GFK BY 09Z. SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AND
EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS
DURING THE DAY AT MOST SITES. GFK...TVF AND ESPECIALLY DVL WILL SEE
WINDY CONDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT DVL AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PEMBINA RIVER AT
WALHALLA. RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN RIVER LEVELS RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE
PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THESE
FORECASTS BASED ON FUTURE PRECIP AS WELL AS PLACEMENT AND
MAGNITUDE OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PEMBINA COUNTY...WITH SOME
REPORTS OF OVERLAND FLOODING NEAR MOUNTAIN ND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL OVERLAND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AND SURROUNDING TRIBUTARIES MAY REACH
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THESE
FORECASTS...AND THE RIVER RESPONSES WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OF THE RAINFALL RUNS OFF.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-
054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
000
FXUS63 KBIS 200634
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
134 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
OVERALL CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE WERE MINIMAL
WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. DID ADD THE MENTION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MY SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW
CELLS/LIGHTNING STRIKES POPPING UP THE LAST HOUR OR SO OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
ALSO WILL ADD ADAMS AND HETTINGER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MCLEAN AND MERCER COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO
THE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY IN TIME TO 06Z
TUESDAY (1AM MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING). WINDS GUSTING TO
OVER 40 MPH NOW AT HETTINGER AND AT A FEW RAWS SITES IN WESTERN
MCLEAN COUNTY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED NEAR
MANDAN WITH LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN LINTON...MOBRIDGE...AND ASHLEY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE MAX PRESSURE FALLS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WESTBOUND RETROGRESSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTH
AND HAVE DECIDED TO ADD ROLETTE...MCHENRY...AND PIERCE COUNTIES TO
THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...AS RAP BOUNDARY WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND
30KT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES IN THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH A LULL
CONTINUING FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS TO PIVOT AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR EVENING
UPDATES.
ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE GRIDDED EVENING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASED THEM AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RAP/HRRR
MODEL DATA...SHOW MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
BANDS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALL EMANATING AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ONE LARGE RAIN SHIELD PIVOTING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...FROM KBIS TO KJMS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW NEAR ASHLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RETROGRADE WEST OVERNIGHT AS MAX PRESSURE FALLS
ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE MORE SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
NEBRASKA WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS DISCUSSED
BELOW. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
IN THIS UPDATE.
THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WITH A CLOSE METWATCH ON EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS WILL ALSO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
RETROGRADING THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE PROPAGATING AGAIN EAST ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS. THIS PLACES THE
LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE FAVORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN- UP TORNADO/LAND SPOUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCUR.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...DID ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 00 UTC TO 15 UTC MONDAY. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45 KTS TO MIX IN THE 900-875 MB LAYER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHS WITH THE RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW.
FOR TOMORROW...AS ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA PIVOTS AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/12Z
MODELS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS CONSENSUS
INDICATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP FLOODING ISSUES THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE
CREEK NEAR MENOKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW...AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH H700 REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...WARMING GRADUALLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. KISN/KDIK/KMOT AERODROMES WILL
EXPERIENCE THE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE A RESPITE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AT KJMS AND THEN SPREAD
WEST TO KBIS BY 10-12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL COMMENCE AT KBIS AND KJMS. A THUNDERSTORM THIS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING...HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER/MBRFC THIS EVENING...AND WILL
DO THE FOLLOWING...
1) APPLE CREEK AT MENOKEN HAS NOT RESPONDED TO THE RAPID RISE
THAT WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALREADY. THIS HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE RIVER FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST A HARE BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE...WILL ISSUE AN RVS THIS EVENING WITH LATER
SHIFTS RE-EVALUATING...ESPECIALLY WITH MONDAYS RAINFALL.
2) WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK NEAR
WILLISTON. BELIEVE WE CAN ADD SOME VALUE/LEAD TIME HERE WITH
PROJECTIONS MAINTAINING A STEADY RISE WELL INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS COMING
MONDAY...HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT RISING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE.
3) A FEW MORE RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT ENOUGH TIME REMAINS TO
MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY OTHER PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH MBRFC...AND WILL
BRIEF THE ONCOMING SHIFT OF THESE DECISIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...KS/AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 200446
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
EARLY MORNING UPDATE FOCUSES ON POP TRENDS. AREA OF SHOWERS/WEAK
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. ALSO
RAIN SHOWERS MOVED MORE INTO SOUTHERN VALLEY THEN EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND ADDED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TO RANSOM/SARGENT/RICHLAND COUNTIES. MINOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH. BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN. GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN. NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR NORTH. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 06Z...REACHING GFK BY 09Z. SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE 10Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AND
EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS
DURING THE DAY AT MOST SITES. GFK...TVF AND ESPECIALY DVL WILL SEE
WINDY CONDS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT DVL AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER POINTS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS WITHIN THE REGION HAVE
RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE IT FALLS COULD CAUSE AREA
RIVERS TO RISE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN
THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL RUNOFF. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FUTURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. THE FORECASTS GIVEN FOR EACH
RIVER POINT ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST PROBABLE SITUATION. RIVER POINT
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WATCH (FFAFGF).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...TG
000
FXUS63 KFGF 200244
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR 10 PM UPDATE WILL BE WIND HEADLINES ISSUED
AROUND 830 PM. WINDS ACROSS NORTH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE IN AND
OUT OF CRITERIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS IN TOWNER COUNTY AND IN VICINITY OF RAIN SHOWERS.
RUC SOUNDINGS DID SHOW 40 TO 45 KTS AROUND H850 LEVEL...WITH RAIN
ABLE TO PULL SOME OF THESE HIGHERS WINDS TO THE SFC. AS GUST
SPREADS BEGAN TO INCREASE ELECTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY AS
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS ENCROACHES ON THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AS SFC LOW WOBBLES ALONG
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD...SO KEPT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. MAY SEE WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BUT EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING.
FOR POPS...CUT BACK ON POPS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN 06Z AND
10Z...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS AGAIN AS ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN
MN LIFTS INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 10Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.
HRRR HAS HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON ACTIVITY AND WAS USED FOR TIMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FOCUS ON SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON TWEAKING POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG A LINE OF WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS AND FILL IN MOST OF MY NORTH EAST. SHOWERS OVER
MY NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THETA E ADVECTION SHIFTS MORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. ONE ISSUE IN THIS AREA WILL BE WINDS...AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND H850 WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS ARE HELPING MIX SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SFC...BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT ONE KNOT UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 KTS TO 40 KTS. WILL
KEEP LOWER POPS BUT STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND
(MY SW ZONES) AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND SFC LOW IS MINIMAL. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS MORE ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN MN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. WILL
BE HARDEST AREA TO NAIL DOWN TIMING ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH. BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN. GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN. NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
HAVE ADDED BRIEF PERIOD OF TSTMS TO BJI AND TVF AS LINE OF STORMS
INITIATING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH. NOT SURE OF TSTMS WILL MAKE IT OVER TO GFK BUT
SHOWERS WILL. REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR FAR AS STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WELL TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO INCREASE NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER DVL AS SHOWERS ARE CREATING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30+ KT
RANGE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS ARE INSTABILITY DECREASES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER POINTS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS WITHIN THE REGION HAVE
RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD...BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE IT FALLS COULD CAUSE AREA
RIVERS TO RISE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN
THAT HAS OCCURRED WILL RUNOFF. ALSO...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FUTURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. THE FORECASTS GIVEN FOR EACH
RIVER POINT ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST PROBABLE SITUATION. RIVER POINT
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SITES THAT MAY RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WATCH (FFAFGF).
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014-015-054.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...TG
000
FXUS63 KBIS 200143
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
843 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3HR PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED NEAR
MANDAN WITH LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN LINTON...MOBRIDGE...AND ASHLEY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE MAX PRESSURE FALLS
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WESTBOUND RETROGRESSION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT IN THE WEST AND NORTH
AND HAVE DECIDED TO ADD ROLETTE...MCHENRY...AND PIERCE COUNTIES TO
THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY...AS RAP BOUNDARY WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND
30KT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES IN THE WEST AND NORTH...WITH A LULL
CONTINUING FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. EXPECT
MORE SHOWERS TO PIVOT AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM FOR EVENING
UPDATES.
ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE GRIDDED EVENING FORECAST WAS TO LOWER
POPS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASED THEM AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RAP/HRRR
MODEL DATA...SHOW MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
BANDS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALL EMANATING AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ONE LARGE RAIN SHIELD PIVOTING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...FROM KBIS TO KJMS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW NEAR ASHLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RETROGRADE WEST OVERNIGHT AS MAX PRESSURE FALLS
ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE MORE SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
NEBRASKA WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS DISCUSSED
BELOW. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
IN THIS UPDATE.
THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WITH A CLOSE METWATCH ON EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS WILL ALSO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
RETROGRADING THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE PROPAGATING AGAIN EAST ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS. THIS PLACES THE
LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE FAVORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN- UP TORNADO/LAND SPOUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCUR.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...DID ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 00 UTC TO 15 UTC MONDAY. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45 KTS TO MIX IN THE 900-875 MB LAYER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHS WITH THE RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW.
FOR TOMORROW...AS ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA PIVOTS AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/12Z
MODELS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS CONSENSUS
INDICATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP FLOODING ISSUES THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE
CREEK NEAR MENOKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW...AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH H700 REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...WARMING GRADUALLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. KISN/KDIK/KMOT AERODROMES WILL
EXPERIENCE THE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE A RESPITE IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR VCSH THROUGH 06Z. MORE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT KJMS AND THEN SPREAD WEST TO KBIS BY 10Z
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COMMENCE AT
KBIS AND KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TWO MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING...HAVE COORDINATED WITH THE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER/MBRFC THIS EVENING...AND WILL
DO THE FOLLOWING...
1) APPLE CREEK AT MENOKEN HAS NOT RESPONDED TO THE RAPID RISE
THAT WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALREADY. THIS HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE RIVER FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST A HARE BELOW
MINOR FLOOD STAGE...WILL ISSUE AN RVS THIS EVENING WITH LATER
SHIFTS RE-EVALUATING...ESPECIALLY WITH MONDAYS RAINFALL.
2) WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK NEAR
WILLISTON. BELIEVE WE CAN ADD SOME VALUE/LEAD TIME HERE WITH
PROJECTIONS MAINTAINING A STEADY RISE WELL INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS COMING
MONDAY...HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT CURRENT RISING
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE.
3) A FEW MORE RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT ENOUGH TIME REMAINS TO
MONITOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY OTHER PRODUCTS PER COORDINATION WITH MBRFC...AND WILL
BRIEF THE ONCOMING SHIFT OF THESE DECISIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017-018-031>033-040-043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 192344
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FOCUS ON SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE ON TWEAKING POPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. A WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG A LINE OF WEAK
SFC CONVERGENCE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS AND FILL IN MOST OF MY NORTH EAST. SHOWERS OVER
MY NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THETA E ADVECTION SHIFTS MORE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE STATE. ONE ISSUE IN THIS AREA WILL BE WINDS...AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND H850 WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS ARE HELPING MIX SOME GUSTY WINDS TO SFC...BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT ONE KNOT UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 KTS TO 40 KTS. WILL
KEEP LOWER POPS BUT STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ND
(MY SW ZONES) AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND SFC LOW IS MINIMAL. WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS MORE ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN MN LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. WILL
BE HARDEST AREA TO NAIL DOWN TIMING ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH. BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN. GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN. NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
HAVE ADDED BRIEF PERIOD OF TSTMS TO BJI AND TVF AS LINE OF STORMS
INITIATING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH. NOT SURE OF TSTMS WILL MAKE IT OVER TO GFK BUT
SHOWERS WILL. REMOVED MENTION OF TSTMS FOR FAR AS STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WELL TO THE EAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO INCREASE NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER DVL AS SHOWERS ARE CREATING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30+ KT
RANGE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TRANSITION OVER TO MAINLY SHOWERS LATER
THIS EVENING AS SUN SETS ARE INSTABILITY DECREASES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
800 AM HAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SAW FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN DOES FALL...IT MAY
PUSH SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN BACK ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. NCRFC MODEL INPUTS BRING SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AND RATE OF RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE RIVER POINTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH RESPECT TO
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF RISES...AND HAVE BEEN COVERED BY A FLOOD
WATCH. THE NEW RIVER POINT FORECASTS ALSO BRING EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO AND CROOKSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SINCE THE FORECAST
DOES NOT BRING LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...ISSUED A NEW RIVER FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE POINTS AS
WELL. WILL MONITOR RIVER STAGES CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS AS REQUIRED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS
000
FXUS63 KBIS 192245
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH RAP/HRRR
MODEL DATA...SHOW MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
BANDS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALL EMANATING AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ONE LARGE RAIN SHIELD PIVOTING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...FROM KBIS TO KJMS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW NEAR ASHLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RETROGRADE WEST OVERNIGHT AS MAX PRESSURE FALLS
ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HELP TO CIRCULATE MORE SHOWERS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
NEBRASKA WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AS DISCUSSED
BELOW. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
IN THIS UPDATE.
THE WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...WITH A CLOSE METWATCH ON EVENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOCAL RIVERS/STREAMS WILL ALSO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
RETROGRADING THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE PROPAGATING AGAIN EAST ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS. THIS PLACES THE
LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE FAVORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN- UP TORNADO/LAND SPOUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCUR.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...DID ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 00 UTC TO 15 UTC MONDAY. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45 KTS TO MIX IN THE 900-875 MB LAYER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHS WITH THE RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW.
FOR TOMORROW...AS ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA PIVOTS AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/12Z
MODELS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS CONSENSUS
INDICATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP FLOODING ISSUES THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE
CREEK NEAR MENOKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW...AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH H700 REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...WARMING GRADUALLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. KISN/KDIK/KMOT AERODROMES WILL
EXPERIENCE THE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MONDAY.
KBIS/KJMS WILL SEE A RESPITE IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR VCSH THROUGH 06Z. MORE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT KJMS AND THEN SPREAD WEST TO KBIS BY 10Z
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COMMENCE AT
KBIS AND KJMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AS MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. THE
JAMES RIVER NEAR GRACE CITY MAY RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY. THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN MAY MAKE AN IN BANK RISE
TO JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEAVER CREEK
NEAR LINTON AND THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN MAY RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE LITTLE MUDDY RIVER NEAR WILLISTON MAY
RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THESE FORECASTS ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR OVERLAND FLOODING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>004-
009>011-017-018-031>033-040-043.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 192031
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
TRICKY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION PCPN EVENT. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON THE SFC LOW WAS STILL
JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT ARCHING UP JUST NORTH OF KFAR
AND THEN OVER TOWARD KPKD. TEMPS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED UP INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. THIS IS GIVING SOME SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESO PAGE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS
AREA AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY LOW THOUGH. DID HAVE A FEW CELLS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO THAT PRETTY MUCH FELL APART
AS THEY MOVED NORTHWARD. MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 00Z MON WITH A BIT WEAKER
COMPONENT TRYING TO TURN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. THEREFORE THE
BETTER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. THERE
IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AND
NORTHERN IOWA. CONVECTION HAS FIRED DOWN IN THIS WATCH AREA BUT SO
FAR NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TRY TO LIFT SOME
OF THE CONVECTION WHICH FIRES DOWN ACROSS THIS WATCH AREA NORTH/NW
BY MID EVENING AND THEN WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN UP THRU THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT LIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAY SEVERE STORMS
BUT STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
FOR MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
VERY MUCH. THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CONTINUAL PARADE OF PCPN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. WITH THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST SD
THE MAIN PCPN BANDS WILL PROBABLY STAY WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY.
THIS KEEPS A BROAD STEADY RAIN OVER THE AREA BUT NOT THINKING IT
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE LOW WILL FINALLY START TO KICK EAST ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DRY WEATHER BY WED BUT WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCES HANGING AROUND DUE TO THE OTHER SLOWER EXITING PCPN
SOLUTIONS.
12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING WCNTRL MN
WED NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
MOVES SOUTH. BUT FAST ON ITS HEELS WILL BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THIS
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...AND THUS A BIT
LESS PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL JUST PAST NEXT WEEKEND WHEREAS GFS HAS
MORE PRECIP NEXT SAT-SUN. GEM WOULD SEEM TO FOLLOW A BIT MORE GFS
SOLN. NET RESULT USING AN ALL BLEND SOLN IS TO THROW IN 30-50 POPS
NEXT SAT-SUN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
EXPECT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR-LOW END MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO SEE HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE DRY SLOT WILL GET INTO WESTERN MN AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA
SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INTO FARGO
AREA LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO COULD LEAD TO SOME EVE TSTMS. REST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AS FOR PRECIP DO
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP AT GFK-TVF-BJI IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT BATCH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. BUT TIMING THE PRECIP BREAK ALWAYS SUSPECT. DVL REGION
MOST PRONE TO REMAIN IN IFR AND RAIN THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF NO RAIN IS PSBL THERE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LESS
CERTAIN. WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT MOST SITES...BUT MAY TURN
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AT FARGO AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH AS SFC LOW
WOBBLES TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BTWN BIS/ABR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT
800 AM HAS RANGED FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY TWO INCHES IN ISOLATED
AREAS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SAW FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN DOES FALL...IT MAY
PUSH SOME FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED RIVER BASIN BACK ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. NCRFC MODEL INPUTS BRING SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AND RATE OF RAINFALL.
SOME OF THE RIVER POINTS HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH RESPECT TO
ANTICIPATED TIMING OF RISES...AND HAVE BEEN COVERED BY A FLOOD
WATCH. THE NEW RIVER POINT FORECASTS ALSO BRING EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO AND CROOKSTON ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SINCE THE FORECAST
DOES NOT BRING LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR
DAYS...ISSUED A NEW RIVER FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE POINTS AS
WELL. WILL MONITOR RIVER STAGES CLOSELY AND WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS AS REQUIRED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...HOPKINS
000
FXUS63 KBIS 192031
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OVERALL...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
RETROGRADING THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA WEST THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE PROPAGATING AGAIN EAST ON
MONDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GFS/GEM/ECMWF AND 15 UTC SREF FOR ALL FIELDS. THIS PLACES THE
LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL GENERALLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER IS ALLOWING SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SURFACE LOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA...HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE FAVORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN- UP TORNADO/LAND SPOUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCUR.
ALSO FOR TONIGHT...DID ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM 00 UTC TO 15 UTC MONDAY. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45 KTS TO MIX IN THE 900-875 MB LAYER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHS WITH THE RETROGRADING SURFACE LOW.
FOR TOMORROW...AS ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA PIVOTS AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BY TUESDAY MORNING...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO
THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/12Z
MODELS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA BORDER...AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS CONSENSUS
INDICATES A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OVER A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND WHAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP FLOODING ISSUES THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL
STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY
THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE
CREEK NEAR MENOKEN.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS STACKED OVER THE SURFACE LOW...AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE THROUGH H700 REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING
20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S...WARMING GRADUALLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL IMPACT
THE AREA WITH STRATUS...FOG...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
18 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND
STRATUS FOR KBIS...KMOT AND KDIK. FOR KJMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS POSSIBLE. FOR KISN...BECOMING MVFR IN RAIN
AND STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS
POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KMOT AND KISN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DID ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR PINGREE AS MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. THE
JAMES RIVER NEAR GRACE CITY MAY RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY. THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN MAY MAKE AN IN BANK RISE
TO JUST SHY OF FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEAVER CREEK
NEAR LINTON AND THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN MAY RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY. THE LITTLE MUDDY RIVER NEAR WILLISTON MAY
RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THESE FORECASTS ARE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR OVERLAND FLOODING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
/9 AM MDT/ MONDAY FOR NDZ001>004-009>011-017-018-031>033-040-043.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KBIS 191812
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS WELL ON TRACK AS
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST. STARTING TO
GET A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...AND WILL BE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR DESTABILIZATION FOR
POTENTIAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEING SO CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE LOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR THIS PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEAK SPIN-
UP TORNADO/LAND SPOUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SHOULD SUFFICIENT
NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. THE FAR WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID INCREASE WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW.
IN REGARDS TO HYDRO...DID ISSUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PIPESTEM
CREEK NEAR PINGREE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
BASED UPON THE 13 UTC RAP/HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...DID LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
THE MAIN BAND OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE VERY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN
DESTABILIZATION...WILL LEAVE THE SEVERE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW REGARDING HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS TO
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
.UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATE TO REFINE POPS TODAY...AS RAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENDED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALLOWED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM CDT AS HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT FELL IN STUTSMAN COUNTY...WITH A SMALL
AREA OF 3 TO 4 INCHES BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVER REPORTS.
THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN IS FORECAST TO RISE TODAY AND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT AND FUTURE RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING THE
LEVEL TO HIT FLOOD STAGE BUT WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT/CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITUATED BETWEEN THE BLACK HILLS AND
PIERRE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A
CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND BEYOND AS THE STRONG S/WV IMPULSE NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA CLOSES OFF AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP BACK EAST/FEED INTO THE LOW PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
UP TO TWO INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
(POSSIBLE MORE NORTH)...WE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ALREADY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
MEASURED SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE PAST
24-48 HOURS...OR FROM BOWMAN TO BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. WHILE ALL
BUT THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL IS IN THE WPC DAY 1 (06Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE...THE MOST PRONE AREA IS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST WHERE
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DECREASES ELSEWHERE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VERY STRONG FORCING EXPECTED. WITH
MODELS FLUCTUATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FELT IT TO BE SAFER
TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WATCH IN CASE OF FURTHER
POSITION CHANGES OF THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/00Z
MODELS IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW LYING
AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE
FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT COOL TEMPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL IMPACT
THE AREA WITH STRATUS...FOG...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND
STRATUS FOR KBIS...KMOT AND KDIK. FOR KJMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO MVFR. FOR
KISN...VFR BECOMING MVFR IN RAIN AND STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK...KMOT AND
KISN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY ..
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
MAY RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WARNINGS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THE RIVERS AND STREAMS RESPOND AS
FORECASTS ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...FOR THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN AND THE BEAVER
CREEK AT LINTON...MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
EVENING. FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER NEAR BREIEN...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR
GRACE CITY...MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...RK
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
000
FXUS63 KFGF 191755
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
STEADY RAIN HAS WORKED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
NOW. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPS DOWN SO
WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A BIT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
OTHERWISE THE SFC LOW REMAINS JUST WEST OF KABR WITH A WARM FRONT
ARCHING UP TO SOUTH OF KFAR AND THEN SOUTHEAST DOWN TOWARD
STAPLES. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT OF COURSE
WHERE THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE BIT OF SUN POKING THROUGH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE SOUTH/SE OF THE FA AND RIDING UP AND
AROUND THE LOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN OVER MOST
OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
EXPECT CONTINUED WIDESPREAD IFR-LOW END MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO SEE HOW FAR
NORTHWEST THE DRY SLOT WILL GET INTO WESTERN MN AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AS OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA
SHOW AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. SOME OF THIS MAY MOVE INTO FARGO
AREA LATER THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO COULD LEAD TO SOME EVE TSTMS. REST
OF THE AREA WILL STAY MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AS FOR PRECIP DO
EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP AT GFK-TVF-BJI IN THE AFTN AND PERHAPS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE NEXT BATCH MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. BUT TIMING THE PRECIP BREAK ALWAYS SUSPECT. DVL REGION
MOST PRONE TO REMAIN IN IFR AND RAIN THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF NO RAIN IS PSBL THERE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LESS
CERTAIN. WINDS WILL BE EAST-NORTHEAST AT MOST SITES...BUT MAY TURN
A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST AT FARGO AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH AS SFC LOW
WOBBLES TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BTWN BIS/ABR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
000
FXUS63 KFGF 191504
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1004 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LOOKS LIKE THE STEADIER RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA NOW AND SHOULD SLOWLY PINWHEEL AROUND THE
FA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH PCPN LEFT NOW CLOSEST TO THE
ACTUAL LOW...WHICH MEANS SOUTHEAST ND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN MAY BE DONE WITH PCPN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHERN MN. IF THUNDER FORMS DOWN IN THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON SOME OF THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...MEANING IT WOULD GET DRAWN UP INTO OUR FA. THIS
WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR MORE ACTIVITY WORKING UP INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
THEN UP AND AROUND INTO OTHER AREAS OF NORTHWEST MN AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER
12Z GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CHALLENGING FORECAST CONCERNING ADVERTISED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED BEST WITH SURFACE FEATURES BUT HAVE A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON TRACK OF CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER E CENTRAL
SD WHICH WOULD AID IN ENHANCING LOW LEVEL FORCING. ECMWF LIFTS LOW
NORTHWARD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH FA WHILE GFS KEEPS LOW
FAIRLY STATIONARY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. AND BOTH SOLUTIONS A
POSSIBILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS
AFTER THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTS THROUGH TODAY.
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ARC OF
CONVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FA. CONVECTION LOOKS STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN LIFTING THROUGH FA. WILL AGAIN SEE A BIG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FROM N-S AS FAR SOUTH STILL CURRENTLY AROUND 70 WITH 50 ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
WITH EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR WEST CENTRAL FA INITIALLY PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST OF FA
HAVING STALLED OUT BUT BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND HAS
WEAKENED SOME. OF MORE CONCERN IS ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SD INTO SOUTHERN FA. LINE IS PROGRESSIVE AT
30-40KTS HOWEVER DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING COULD BE SETTING STAGE FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SD E-W BOUNDARY SETS UP AGAIN ALONG ND AND SD BORDER AREA.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION WHILE PROBABLY NOT SEVERE COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOOD ISSUES. AT THIS POINT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING.
WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS DVL BASIN AS
COULD SEE BORDERLINE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN BANDS ACROSS FA AND NON-SEVERE T POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH HALF
OF FA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ALONG ND/SD/MN BORDER
AREA WITH COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CUT OFF LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE
H2O VALUES REMAINING ABOVE AN INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW.
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SD SURFACE LOW DRIFTS N AND S
THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER AREA. WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CAPE CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER THIS AREA. GFS
QUICKEST IN SHIFTING LOW EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD
GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
COLUMN NOT PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHIFTING THE UPPER
LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS AWAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF
TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW BY NEXT SATURDAY...BUT DID MAINTAIN LOW POPS...AS THE UPPER FLOW
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
CIGS MAINLY IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA AND
EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3
OF FA. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
IFR VSBY IN FOG CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN FA...BJI TAF SITE BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AM. MORE SHRA/TSRA ON TAP
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
000
FXUS63 KBIS 191451
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
BASED UPON THE 13 UTC RAP/HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...DID LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS
THE MAIN BAND OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE SLOWLY RETROGRADES WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IS HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE VERY FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN
DESTABILIZATION...WILL LEAVE THE SEVERE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW REGARDING HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS TO
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
.UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPDATE TO REFINE POPS TODAY...AS RAIN HAS TEMPORARILY ENDED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THERE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALLOWED THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM CDT AS HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT FELL IN STUTSMAN COUNTY...WITH A SMALL
AREA OF 3 TO 4 INCHES BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES AND OBSERVER REPORTS.
THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN IS FORECAST TO RISE TODAY AND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT AND FUTURE RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING THE
LEVEL TO HIT FLOOD STAGE BUT WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT/CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. STRONG EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...VISIBLE ON REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITUATED BETWEEN THE BLACK HILLS AND
PIERRE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A
CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND BEYOND AS THE STRONG S/WV IMPULSE NOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA CLOSES OFF AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP BACK EAST/FEED INTO THE LOW PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
UP TO TWO INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
(POSSIBLE MORE NORTH)...WE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ALREADY 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
MEASURED SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE PAST
24-48 HOURS...OR FROM BOWMAN TO BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. WHILE ALL
BUT THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL IS IN THE WPC DAY 1 (06Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY) SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE...THE MOST PRONE AREA IS ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST WHERE
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL DECREASES ELSEWHERE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH VERY STRONG FORCING EXPECTED. WITH
MODELS FLUCTUATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...FELT IT TO BE SAFER
TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WATCH IN CASE OF FURTHER
POSITION CHANGES OF THE UPPER LOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SUITE OF 19/00Z
MODELS IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REGION. THE CONSENSUS INDICATES A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...IMPACTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION TO FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW LYING
AREAS...WILL BE MONITORING RIVERS CLOSELY THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE
FASTER RESPONDING POINTS SUCH AS APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT COOL TEMPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL IMPACT
THE AREA WITH STRATUS...FOG...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
12 UTC TAF CYCLE. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE RAIN AND
STRATUS FOR KBIS...KMOT AND KDIK. FOR KJMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO MVFR. FOR
KISN...VFR BECOMING MVFR IN RAIN AND STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY ..
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
MAY RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WARNINGS FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THE RIVERS AND STREAMS RESPOND AS
FORECASTS ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...FOR THE APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN AND THE BEAVER
CREEK AT LINTON...MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
EVENING. FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER NEAR BREIEN...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE PIPESTEM CREEK NEAR
PINGREE...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. FOR THE JAMES RIVER NEAR
GRACE CITY...MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...RK
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AYD
| 
