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000
FXUS63 KFGF 241816
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
116 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

12Z NCEP MODELS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR STILL FOCUS A NARROW RIBBON OF
700 J/KG AND SHOWWALTERS -3C ALONG WITH NON-SUPERCELL TSTM
PARAMETERS OF GREATER THAN 2 IN AN AXIS FROM ROLLA THROUGH DEVILS
LAKE TO BTWN VALLEY CITY-FARGO TO JUST WEST OF WAHPETON. HOWEVER
CURRENT SPC MESO PAGE HAS NR 1000 MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN SOUTHEAST
SASK AND STORMS ARE IN THAT AREA WITH SOME CAPE INTO FAR NW ND AND
A FEW ECHOES INTO THAT AREA. LATEST HRRR INDICATE STORMS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST ALONG AXIS MENTIONED
ABOVE IN THAT 21Z-01Z PERIOD. OTHER THAN THAT AREA OF SOLID RAIN
IN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF IN
FAR WRN MN DURING THE AFTN. TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH UPR 30S-LOW
40S EAST AND 50S WEST. REPORT OF WET SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN IN OTTER
TAIL COUNTY MN JUST BEFORE NOON IN POCKET OF HEAVIER PCPN. DONT
THINK THIS WILL LAST LONG UNLIKE LAST EVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM  CDT THU APR 24 2014

EXPECT LINGERING IFR CIGS AT GFK...BJI AND TVF TO SLOWLY RISE TO
MVFR CIGS THIS EARLY AFTN. EXPECT PREDOMINANT CONDS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING TO BE MVFR CIGS WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS UP OR
DOWN. LOW CONFIDENCE THE CLEARING WE ARE SEEING AT FAR WILL REACH
GFK AND CERTAINLY NOT OUR MN TAF SITES. DVL...WHICH IS
CLEAR...SHOULD CU UP AND SEE A THREAT FOR TSTMS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN. WITH FAR STILL OVC...DO NOT EXPECT CLEARING WILL ALLOW IT TO
HEAT SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTMS TO GENERATE ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD
ADVECT IN FROM WEST. WILL NOT MENTION TS AT FAR AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241752
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE AFFECTED ZONES AS A RESULT.

FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
AT ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD ENTER NORTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU
COUNTY BY 3 PM CDT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR
ANY FURTHER UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER ROLETTE COUNTY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER TO
EXTEND THE AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE OBS/TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED FOG GRIDS TO AREAS INSTEAD OF PATCHY OVER
THIS AREA. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF FOG WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM BRANDON
MB TO REGINA SK...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SO REMOVED POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH
AND EAST...AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED...ORIENTATED
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THEN BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MY WEST AND MUCH OF MY
CENTRAL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRYER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
TO WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUED CLOUDY EAST ALONG TO EAST
OF THE SFC TROUGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY...WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT ARE
30KTS OR LESS SO DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY MAGNITUDES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CLOSED OFF...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MID TO LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODELS
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE A BIT WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I94 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ND.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE LOW
PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KEPT
THINGS DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL...AND RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND IN GENERAL HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
WHERE WE COULD.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITH COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HERE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

THE LEADING IMPULSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL
AND WINDY DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DURING THIS TIME NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THUS WE EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THE LAST FEW RUNS YET THERE STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL...THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KMOT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND BRIEF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL GENERATE A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WIND
MAGNITUDES DO NOT WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...NH





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1032 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

LATEST RAP/HRRR INDICATE SFC TROUGH AND CLEARING AXIS TO REMAIN
MAYBE A TAD WEST OF WHERE IT WAS EARLIER THOUGHT. 21-00Z PERIOD
RAP HAS AREA OF SHOWWALTERS OF -2/-3C AND 700 J/KG MU CAPE IN AN
AXIS FROM ROLLA THROUGH DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO LISBON-
HANKINSON. IT IS THIS REGION WHERE ENOUGH SUN WILL BREAK OUT AND
ON WESTERN EDGE OF COLD POOL WITH 500 MB TROUGH FOR SCT TRW FORMATION.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AS PARAMTERS
FAVOR THEM. WILL NEEDD MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE IN SUN AREA FOR INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED.

FARTHER EAST VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD AND TEMPS
MUCH LOWER AND THAN APPEARS TO RUN FROM CAVALIER THROUGH GRAND
FORKS TO JUST EAST OF FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS.

IN THE MEANTIME AREA OF RAIN SPREADING NORTH UP THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND EASTWARD SO WET DAY IN SORE FOR NW MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH WIDE VARIETY OF CIGS
ACROSS THE FA. SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT DVL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY RAIN AREA TODAY EXPECTED TO BE FROM VALLEY EAST
AND WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SOME DRYING WILL BE WORKING INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BREAK OUT
CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON TSRA TO
VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER








000
FXUS63 KBIS 241529
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1029 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER ROLETTE COUNTY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER TO
EXTEND THE AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE OBS/TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED FOG GRIDS TO AREAS INSTEAD OF PATCHY OVER
THIS AREA. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF FOG WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM BRANDON
MB TO REGINA SK...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SO REMOVED POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH
AND EAST...AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED...ORIENTATED
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THEN BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MY WEST AND MUCH OF MY
CENTRAL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRYER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
TO WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUED CLOUDY EAST ALONG TO EAST
OF THE SFC TROUGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY...WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT ARE
30KTS OR LESS SO DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY MAGNITUDES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CLOSED OFF...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MID TO LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODELS
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE A BIT WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I94 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ND.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE LOW
PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KEPT
THINGS DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL...AND RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND IN GENERAL HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
WHERE WE COULD.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITH COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HERE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

THE LEADING IMPULSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL
AND WINDY DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DURING THIS TIME NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THUS WE EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THE LAST FEW RUNS YET THERE STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL...THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MORNING FOG EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST...INCLUDING KBIS-KMOT-KJMS.
LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KJMS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY AROUND
14-15Z. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP AT KMOT-KISN-KJMS AND
POSSIBLY KBIS THURSDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR KJMS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE VERY
POSSIBLE OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL GENERATE A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WIND
MAGNITUDES DO NOT WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...NH





000
FXUS63 KFGF 241150
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM ADJUSTED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING RAIN BAND. FARTHER WEST DROPPED
POPS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON RADAR AND CLOUD TRENDS.
INCLUDED FOG MENTION OVER THE DVL BASIN WITH SOME DENSE FOG OVER
THE FAR NW FA. AT THIS POINT DENSE FOG OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA SO HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH WIDE VARIETY OF CIGS
ACROSS THE FA. SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT DVL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY RAIN AREA TODAY EXPECTED TO BE FROM VALLEY EAST
AND WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS. SOME DRYING WILL BE WORKING INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BREAK OUT
CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON TSRA TO
VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED FOG GRIDS TO AREAS INSTEAD OF PATCHY OVER
THIS AREA. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF FOG WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM BRANDON
MB TO REGINA SK...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SO REMOVED POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH
AND EAST...AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED...ORIENTATED
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THEN BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MY WEST AND MUCH OF MY
CENTRAL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRYER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
TO WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUED CLOUDY EAST ALONG TO EAST
OF THE SFC TROUGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY...WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT ARE
30KTS OR LESS SO DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY MAGNITUDES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CLOSED OFF...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MID TO LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODELS
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE A BIT WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I94 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ND.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE LOW
PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KEPT
THINGS DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL...AND RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND IN GENERAL HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
WHERE WE COULD.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITH COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HERE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

THE LEADING IMPULSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL
AND WINDY DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DURING THIS TIME NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THUS WE EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THE LAST FEW RUNS YET THERE STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL...THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MORNING FOG EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST...INCLUDING KBIS-KMOT-KJMS.
LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KJMS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY AROUND
14-15Z. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP AT KMOT-KISN-KJMS AND
POSSIBLY KBIS THURSDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR KJMS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE VERY
POSSIBLE OVER THESE SAME LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL GENERATE A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WIND
MAGNITUDES DO NOT WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240908
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH
AND EAST...AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED...ORIENTATED
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THEN BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MY WEST AND MUCH OF MY
CENTRAL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRYER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
TO WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUED CLOUDY EAST ALONG TO EAST
OF THE SFC TROUGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY...WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT ARE
30KTS OR LESS SO DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY MAGNITUDES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CLOSED OFF...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MID TO LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODELS
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE A BIT WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I94 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ND.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE LOW
PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KEPT
THINGS DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL...AND RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND IN GENERAL HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
WHERE WE COULD.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITH COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HERE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

THE LEADING IMPULSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL
AND WINDY DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DURING THIS TIME NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THUS WE EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THE LAST FEW RUNS YET THERE STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL...THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MORNING FOG EXPECTED CENTRAL AND EAST...INCLUDING KBIS-KMOT-KJMS.
MVFR-IFR STRATUS AT KJMS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BY 12-13Z. CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL RE-DEVELOP AT KMOT-KISN-KJMS AND POSSIBLY KBIS
THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
KJMS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE OVER THESE
SAME LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION A VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL GENERATE A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WIND
MAGNITUDES DO NOT WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...NH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 240835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MANY CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT AND INTO THE LONG TERM AS ACTIVE
AND AT TIMES COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES. CONSIDERING ACTIVE PATTERN
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

INTERESTING DAY AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES...RAIN...THUNDERSTORM AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ALL CONTRIBUTING TO CHALLENGING
FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CANADA
HAS DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER ELEVATED BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS FA ALONG WITH
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WARM ADVECTION. GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS ALL SUPPORT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED FROM
VALLEY EAST THIS MORNING. PCPN AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED TROUGH DRYING WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY AND COULD SEE SOME SOLAR
THERE WHICH WOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE WHERE
AREAS IN THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 40S. IN THE MEAN TIME
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WILL PROPAGATE SE REACHING FA
AT PRIME HEATING. WITH COLD POOL WILL SEE SOME PRETTY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND AROUND 400J/KG OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE OVER FA AT
SAME TIME PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO EVEN WITH DRYING
ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND A HALF INCH
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER
AND SURFACE LOW OVER FA CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPIN-
UPS UNDER STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAINLY EITHER
SIDE OF THE VALLEY UNTIL LOSS OF HEATING. BEST LIFT TONIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE AHEAD OF SHARP SHEAR AXIS. WITH COLUMN COLD
ENOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ANY PCPN CONFINED TO THE NE
FA CLOSER TO DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD WITH GFS THE COLDEST. AT ANY
RATE LOOKS TO BE A RESPECTABLE NE-SW ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FA WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ON SATURDAY BAND OF WARM ADVECTION LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
FA AS NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST.

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS
NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
POPS AS BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS SETS UP.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN
CANADA...WITH AN INTENSE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MEANDERING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES FOR MID-WEEK. A MAIN SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA POTENTIALLY INHIBITING PRECIP FARTHER
EAST FOR AT LEAST SOME TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THE AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE ENDS UP DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST. THERMAL FIELDS VARY
SOMEWHAT AMONG MODELS...BUT KEPT THE IDEA OF PRIMARILY RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME MIXED SNOW AT NIGHT. TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL TODAY OR FROM
THE BJI-PKD AREA TO DVL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240651
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
151 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF FOG THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST AND NORTH THROUGH 10Z
WITH RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER OR NEAR THESE
LOCATIONS.

OTHER EDITS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE CONSISTED OF ADJUSTING
HOURLY WEATHER ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR
TERM MODEL TRENDS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS THAT CORRESPOND WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND WHERE THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST
AND OB SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AND CLEARED THEM OUT SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...GUSTY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ALLOW THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 4 PM CDT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA (FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS) AND EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...AND STARK COUNTIES (FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS) UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA COULD
SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GETS DRY
SLOTTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY THURSDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW (COLDER TEMPS ALOFT) WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONCE AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE GFS
WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON
THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING`S
MODEL RUN THE MODELS WERE BUILDING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MORE
PROMINENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...KEEPS A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS AND A LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR COLORADO. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS - POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS - WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS A STACKED SYSTEM BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THESE RAINS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS TO BEGIN
GREEN-UP IN THE GRASSLANDS...WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES WARMING FOR
GRASS GROWTH.

DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS MOST FAVORED AT KMOT AND KJMS...LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHERE THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT KMOT-KISN-KJMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH/RPK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ON RADAR HAS DIMINISHED AND SHIFTED
EAST. TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW FELL AROUND BJI THIS EVENING IN
A POCKET OF COOLER AIR IN THE EASTERN ZONES. HAS SINCE SWITCHED BACK
TO RAIN. WINDS STILL RELATIVELY STRONG AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A RAIN SNOW MIX HAS BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN BECKER, HUBBARD AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS FELL BELOW 35 OR 36 DEGREES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS MARGINALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH MOST
OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL ADD
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND KEPT THE SAME OR INCREASED TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED WHERE MOST OF THE RAIN FELL TODAY OR FROM
THE BJI-PKD AREA TO DVL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND THU
UNTIL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 240246
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LATE EVENING UPDATE FOR MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT POPS TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AREAS THAT CORRESPOND WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND WHERE THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST
AND OB SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AND CLEARED THEM OUT SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...GUSTY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ALLOW THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 4 PM CDT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA (FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS) AND EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...AND STARK COUNTIES (FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS) UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA COULD
SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GETS DRY
SLOTTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY THURSDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW (COLDER TEMPS ALOFT) WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONCE AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE GFS
WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON
THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING`S
MODEL RUN THE MODELS WERE BUILDING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MORE
PROMINENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...KEEPS A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS AND A LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR COLORADO. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS - POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS - WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS A STACKED SYSTEM BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THESE RAINS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS TO BEGIN
GREEN-UP IN THE GRASSLANDS...WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES WARMING FOR
GRASS GROWTH.

DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KMOT/KJMS BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS MOST FAVORED AT KMOT...WHICH RECEIVED
NEARLY A HALF INCH OF RAIN. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT
KMOT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240212
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A RAIN SNOW MIX HAS BEEN REPORTED IN EASTERN BECKER, HUBBARD AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS FELL BELOW 35 OR 36 DEGREES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS MARGINALLY SUPPORT SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH MOST
OF THE SOUNDING BELOW FREEZING BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL ADD
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND KEPT THE SAME OR INCREASED TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXISTS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WAS FALLING WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDED FROM DVL TO PKD. CIGS WERE
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER EASTERN ND EARLY THU MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BANDS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NW-SE
BAND OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE, SHOULD
SHUT DOWN THE HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED FOR THU.

WINDS WERE STILL UP EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT. TWEAKED
WINDS FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXISTS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WAS FALLING WHICH GENERALLY EXTENDED FROM DVL TO PKD. CIGS WERE
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FT OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
OVER EASTERN ND EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 232357
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO CANCEL WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST
AND OB SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS OVERNIGHT AND CLEARED THEM OUT SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...GUSTY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ALLOW THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 4 PM CDT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA (FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS) AND EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...AND STARK COUNTIES (FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS) UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA COULD
SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GETS DRY
SLOTTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY THURSDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW (COLDER TEMPS ALOFT) WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONCE AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE GFS
WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON
THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING`S
MODEL RUN THE MODELS WERE BUILDING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MORE
PROMINENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...KEEPS A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS AND A LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR COLORADO. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS - POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS - WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS A STACKED SYSTEM BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THESE RAINS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS TO BEGIN
GREEN-UP IN THE GRASSLANDS...WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES WARMING FOR
GRASS GROWTH.

DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KMOT/KJMS BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
OVERNIGHT LIGHT FOG IS MOST FAVORED AT KMOT...WHICH RECEIVED
NEARLY A HALF INCH OF RAIN. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY RE-DEVELOP AT
KMOT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232053
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...GUSTY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL ALLOW THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 4 PM CDT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA (FOR GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS) AND EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY NORTH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO INCLUDE GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...AND STARK COUNTIES (FOR GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS) UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA COULD
SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GETS DRY
SLOTTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

BY THURSDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW (COLDER TEMPS ALOFT) WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES
TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH.
ONCE AGAIN...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS WERE USED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE GFS
WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON
THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING`S
MODEL RUN THE MODELS WERE BUILDING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MORE
PROMINENTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...KEEPS A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH ALONG
OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOW CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE
LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS AND A LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR COLORADO. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHES
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING...LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE ON SATURDAY. NORTH DAKOTA WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS - POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSHOWERS - WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS A STACKED SYSTEM BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW...AND KEEPING LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THESE RAINS COULD BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS TO BEGIN
GREEN-UP IN THE GRASSLANDS...WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES WARMING FOR
GRASS GROWTH.

DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT.
AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>003-010-
011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-023-025-031>033-037-040-041-043-044-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM









000
FXUS63 KFGF 232000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CANDO TO GRAND FORKS/FARGO TO
FERGUS FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.
CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POCKETS.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS SECOND BAND. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KBIS 231804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY IN TIME (BY 3
HOURS) AND SPACE (3 COUNTIES TO THE NORTHWEST) AS WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGER THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE ALSO BEEN TOO FAST WITH PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW/BOUNDARY
THOUGH THE CWA. THE UPDATED WIND HEADLINES AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A
BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES
FOR THIS UPDATE.

THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF
THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS.

ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM
UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT.
AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AND WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>003-010-
011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-023-025-037-040-041-043-044-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
LIMITED. AT THE SAME TIME...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE TO THE WEST (THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS) AS FORCING
AGAIN INCREASES. THE MAIN UPDATE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z AS THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEAKENS (SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROPAGATING VERY
SLOW). THUS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MAKE
MUCH MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
(UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST)...850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA...AND
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL INITIATE AND MOVE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FA. UPDATES POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THINKING ABOVE.

THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...INCLUDING
THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CANDO TO GRAND FORKS/FARGO TO
FERGUS FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.
CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POCKETS.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS SECOND BAND. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...ROGERS





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231500
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT BAND OF
SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS FORCING WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z AS THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WEAKENS (SINCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROPAGATING VERY
SLOW). THUS...DO NOT EXPECT THIS CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS TO MAKE
MUCH MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
(UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST)...850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA...AND
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL INITIATE AND MOVE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FA. UPDATES POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THINKING ABOVE.

THE OTHER ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...INCLUDING
THE WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY WITH TIMING OF RAIN AREA
LIFTING SLOWLY NE. SO FAR CIGS WITHIN THE RAIN REMAINING VFR WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 3-4MILES AT TIMES. BIT QUESTION IS HOW THIS RAIN WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. I COULD POSSIBLY BE TO
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST BUT TOUGH. UPDATES LATER THIS
MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. SE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WINDY
BY NOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 231457
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE CENTER OF A SURFACE CYCLONE/TROUGH HAS NOW ENTERED
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE COME DOWN A
BIT OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES
FOR THIS UPDATE.

THE 12Z HRRR PROGS RAIN SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN THE 16Z-21Z PERIOD AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH.
RAPID CITY RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS OF
THIS WRITING. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS.

ALSO MODIFIED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER GRIDS TO GO FROM
UNCERTAINTY WORDING TO COVERAGE WORDING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN UPDATE CHALLENGES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE ADJUSTING POPS AS
RAIN BAND LIFTS SLOWLY NE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE WITH DRIER AIR AS
DEW POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAIN ARE STILL IN THE 20S. BAND
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE AROUND 10-15KTS. AS A RESULT BACKED OFF ON
POPS FARTHER NORTHEAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO START AND
DECREASES WITH TIME IN THIS HALF OF THE FORECAST AS EVOLUTION OF
500MB FLOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE OMEGA TYPE BLOCK THAT
SETS UP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ORIENTED SUNDAY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY NW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN EXPECT COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY EASTERLY SFC FLOW IMPEDING APPROACHING PRECIP
SHIELD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EC BREAKS RIDGE DOWN WITH MERGER OF 500MB
TROUGHS BY A RETROGRESSION OF HUDSON BAY LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE OVERALL 500MB FLOW WITH NO MERGER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

TAF FORECASTS WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY WITH TIMING OF RAIN AREA
LIFTING SLOWLY NE. SO FAR CIGS WITHIN THE RAIN REMAINING VFR WITH
VSBY DOWN TO 3-4MILES AT TIMES. BIT QUESTION IS HOW THIS RAIN WILL
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER AIR. I COULD POSSIBLY BE TO
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FORECAST BUT TOUGH. UPDATES LATER THIS
MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE. SE WIND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WINDY
BY NOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN THE WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRIDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230944
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (NON-
SEVERE) MOST LOCATIONS.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. POTENT EMBEDDED
S/WV LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT RABID THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 60KT LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING TO INCREASE PWATS FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LAST EVENING UP TO 0.75"-1.00" NOW. FORCING STRONG WITH
STEEP THERMAL UPGLIDE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ND LIFTING NORTH WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY HAD SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW MORE JUST WEST OF WILLISTON OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (10C/KM)
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO
INDICATING 100-300 CAPE WEST. NEAR TERM HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THIS
PLUME OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED
STRONG FORCING. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT WANTED TO MAKE
SURE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AM.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SLIGHT CH. OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT 06-12Z AS ALL OF
WEST AND CENTRAL ND BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH BUFKIT INDICATING 30 TO
NEAR 35 KTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AS THE MIXING HEIGHT ELEVATES AFTER
DAYBREAK. OPTED TO START IT NOW AS HAVE ALREADY HAD GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SHOWERS AS THEY MIX
SOME OF THE LLJ WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH
ADVANCES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH A WIND ADV. THERE AS
WELL. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON THURSDAY WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW...THUS BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. USED A COMPROMISE HERE KEEPING THE FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DRY...AND A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE NORTH. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO
KEPT A MENTION OF LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS HERE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE IN FOR A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN CLOSING OFF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN INITIAL WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF/GEM IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE. A GFS
SOLUTION KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW THUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL AS ALL RAIN. A ECMWF /GEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COLDER EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER
30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS/VIS GENERALLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003-011-020>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025-037-048-051.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230833
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS UPCOMING PCPN EVENT AND TEMPERATURES.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND USED A
BLEND.

RAIN BAND GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SW FA AS UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES. GFS CURRENTLY A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DEEPER
MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE FA SO TRIMMED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NE FA WHICH WILL TAKE LONGEST TO MOISTEN UP. OTHERWISE CURRENT
POPS GOOD AS RAIN BAND LIFTS NE DURING THE DAY IN BROAD ZONE OF
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER SHALLOW TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WITH UP TO 35KTS THROUGH LAYER.
AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SW THIRD OF FA AND
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE WITH UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES SO TRIMMED T MENTION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH
AND STILL THIS MARGINAL AT BEST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE
HALF OF FA IN FAVORED ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. SOME DRYING WORKS INTO THE WESTERN
FA LATE TONIGHT SO CHANCE POPS REASONABLE IN THIS AREA.

ALL MODELS BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE
VALLEY. FROM VALLEY EAST RAIN BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AS LOW EXITS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL PCPN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT. FAR NE CORNER OF FA THE
EXCEPTION AND COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WHERE
AS ECMWF AND NAM WARMER. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PHASE OF ANY PCPN WHICH OCCURS. WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN PLAINS STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH EXITING DIFFUSE DEFZONE BAND OF RASN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE CANADIAN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL CREATE IDEAL DIURNAL COOLING AND SAT AM TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. FOG
DEVELOPMENT SAT MORNING MAY LIMIT TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. COOL DRY
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH AND A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISS VALLEY LIMITING
PROGRESSION OF NEXT 500MB TROUGH. THUS DELAYING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN
INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY LONGER. THIS BLOCKING WILL KEEP THE
SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN
THE MORNING. RAIN COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE AT
TIMES...BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3000 FT. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST BAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WENT A BIT MORE BULLISH ON RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP...BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230658
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY...TRYING
TO FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION...BUT LARGELY KEPT IT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST ADDING THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BASED ON LATEST NAM/RAP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. BASED
IN PART OF THE 23/01Z RAP AND THE 23/00Z NAM...HAVE SLOWED THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND
BOOSTED POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO FOLLOWED THE RAP
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGS TO TRIM BACK THE ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FAR WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

SYSTEM 1...

A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH -
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SYSTEM 2...

DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND
CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND
THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 20 KTS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED
BY A LATE MORNING LULL AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO MORE
WESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230441
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS A LACK OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME SPOTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S. WITH RADAR RETURNS STILL HANGING SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...KEPT
POPS DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT RAMPED THEM UP QUICKLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ECHOES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD BUT STRONGER SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME QPF INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. WENT DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WITH AN
ISOLATED MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN
THE MORNING. RAIN COULD BRING VIS DOWN TO THE 2-5SM RANGE AT
TIMES...BUT THINK THAT CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3000 FT. MODELS
SHOW A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST BAND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WENT A BIT MORE BULLISH ON RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP...BLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230244
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS OVERNIGHT. BASED
IN PART OF THE 23/01Z RAP AND THE 23/00Z NAM...HAVE SLOWED THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND
BOOSTED POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO FOLLOWED THE RAP
SHOWALTER INDEX PROGS TO TRIM BACK THE ISOLATED THUNDER OVERNIGHT
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FAR WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

SYSTEM 1...

A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH -
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SYSTEM 2...

DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND
CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND
THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 20 KTS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY A
LATE MORNING LULL AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230242
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP COMING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ECHOES HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM SD BUT STRONGER SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER
SOUTH AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME QPF INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z. WENT DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
THEN START RAMPING UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WITH AN
ISOLATED MENTION AROUND MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS MORNING. TEMPS AND WINDS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CIGS OF AROUND 4000-7000 FT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RAIN SLIGHTLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO KDVL AS THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN AREAS WITH
RAIN. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. THE BAND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KDVL BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW WITH MORE PREVAILING RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 222347
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BUT NOTHING BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS BEEN SEEN ON KABR AND SFC OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CIGS OF AROUND 4000-7000 FT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND RAIN SLIGHTLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS CONFINED TO KDVL AS THAT AREA
HAS THE BEST SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS IN AREAS WITH
RAIN. THE STEADY RAIN BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. THE BAND WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KDVL BY
AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. WILL
INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW WITH MORE PREVAILING RAIN IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
35 KTS BY MID MORNING. THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...JR








000
FXUS63 KBIS 222335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE. SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING THEN SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FAR WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

SYSTEM 1...

A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH -
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SYSTEM 2...

DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND
CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND
THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING OVER 20 KTS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY A
LATE MORNING LULL AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING POORLY WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS (TOO HIGH). AS A RESULT...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT RECOVERY SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST
AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP OVER THE STATE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MAIN BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVEYOR BELT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO MINOT AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHERMORE...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL FORCING COULD GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN...MARGINAL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WARRANT
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS UPDATE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO VIGOROUS SYSTEMS WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

SYSTEM 1...

A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMES RIVER BASIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WEST WINDS BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS EXPECTING EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE/BOUNDARY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS - BETTER CHANCES NORTH -
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS - MAINLY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

SYSTEM 2...

DURING THIS TIME THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS BLOCK MAINLY KEEPS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE US ROCKIES AND
CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE COLDER AND WETTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UTILIZED A STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED AND
THIS IS DEPICTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MAINLY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY (MAINLY OVER KJMS BETWEEN 06Z-12Z).
HOWEVER...VFR VSBYS SHOULD BE PREVALENT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
AREA WIDE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 222031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM DT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO.  LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST BREEZE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  -RA MENTION FOR ALL BUT KBJI
BY THAT TIME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...WJB







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