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000
FXUS63 KBIS 060835
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND POSSIBLE SMOKY/HAZY
CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM FIRES FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FIRES.

CURRENTLY...AT UPPER LEVELS...TWO LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOWS
WERE CUT OFF OR NEARLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OF THE WESTERLIES -
ONE OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A
BROAD FLATTENED RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS CENTERED
OVER ALBERTA. SWIFT CURRENT HAD EARLIER REPORTED VISIBILITY DOWN TO
2-3 MILES...BUT WAS BACK UP TO 9 MILES. GLASGOW AND WOLF POINT IN
MONTANA WERE DOWN TO 6 AND 5 MILES IN SMOKE...WITH FORECASTERS IN
GLASGOW FIELDING SOME PHONE CALLS REGARDING RESIDENTS SMELLING
SMOKE.

ALSO CHECKED THE NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECAST REGARDING SURFACE
SMOKE...AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE SMOKE TODAY IN NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE TO WESTERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW GOOD MIXING FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND H800...AND TAP INTO A VERY DRY LAYER ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW A QUICK DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY DESPITE COOLER
CONDITIONS (WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND UPPER 70S IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA). NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE REACHED FOR 3
HOURS OR MORE. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTH MAY NOT
CORRESPOND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
OFF WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.

SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS
MONTANA. HAVE KEPT A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY.

TONIGHT THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING INTO THE
STATE...WITH THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY BRINGING A MUCH QUIETER DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. QUIET AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFOREMENTIONED LOW SETS UP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER ON
MONDAY BRINGING THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM. SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CLOSING OFF AND ABSORBING THE INITIAL LOW. SYSTEM
THEN DEEPENS AS MEANDERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
LOW MAY START ITS GRADUAL DEPARTURE ON THURSDAY THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS
ARRIVED AT KISN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS
TO BEGIN INCREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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000
FXUS63 KFGF 060820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISSUE TODAY IS COLD FRONT TIMING AND TEMPS. ALSO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES IN WCNTRL MN.  SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT SLICING THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA TO ABOUT BRANDON THEN
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO STANLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND ENTER DVL BASIN NR 12Z AND THEN INTO THE GRAND
FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA NR 15Z AND THEN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN
NR 20Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
TODAY COMING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND
OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL A
PARTLY SUNNY TYPE DAY. MUCH COOLER TODAY NE ND WHERE HIGHS TODAY
BARELY REACHING 70...BUT FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL WILL SEE A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK SLIM
BUT STILL NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION NR THE
FRONT IN PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN (FFM-BJI) THIS AFTN SO LEFT IN
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BECOMING CLEAR
TONIGHT THEN SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
KTS. TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN RETURN
FLOW AND A TAD WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ONE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERY PERIODS IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS COOLING TO BELOW AVERAGE BY
MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH
APPROACHING WSHFT WITH COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY WINDS BLO 10KTS HOWEVER AT 925 MB 35-40KT FROM
THE SW OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FA SO ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT FAR-
TVF AND BJI PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NW/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF E ND. COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST OVER SE ND INTO WC MN...WITH COOLER
TEMPS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...EXPECT RH TO FALL TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 060820
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

ISSUE TODAY IS COLD FRONT TIMING AND TEMPS. ALSO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES IN WCNTRL MN.  SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT SLICING THRU CENTRAL MANITOBA TO ABOUT BRANDON THEN
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO STANLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND ENTER DVL BASIN NR 12Z AND THEN INTO THE GRAND
FORKS-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA NR 15Z AND THEN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN
NR 20Z. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
TODAY COMING UP AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A BAND
OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL IN ALL A
PARTLY SUNNY TYPE DAY. MUCH COOLER TODAY NE ND WHERE HIGHS TODAY
BARELY REACHING 70...BUT FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL WILL SEE A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES THEY LOOK SLIM
BUT STILL NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ISOLD HIGH BASED CONVECTION NR THE
FRONT IN PARTS OF WCNTRL-NCNTRL MN (FFM-BJI) THIS AFTN SO LEFT IN
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BECOMING CLEAR
TONIGHT THEN SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
KTS. TEMPS MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THEN RETURN
FLOW AND A TAD WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ONE UPPER LOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND ANOTHER NORTHERN
BRANCH UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SHOWERY PERIODS IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS COOLING TO BELOW AVERAGE BY
MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH
APPROACHING WSHFT WITH COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY WINDS BLO 10KTS HOWEVER AT 925 MB 35-40KT FROM
THE SW OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FA SO ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT FAR-
TVF AND BJI PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NW/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF E ND. COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST OVER SE ND INTO WC MN...WITH COOLER
TEMPS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...EXPECT RH TO FALL TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060538
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING LIKE WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...BUT DO NOT BEGIN INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL SOME AREAS IN SASKATCHEWAN WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY - LIKELY DUE TO SMOKE FROM LARGE FIRES IN NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. SWIFT CURRENT HAD BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
OF 2-3 MILES BUT NOT SEEING OTHER SURROUNDING STATIONS WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
OTHERWISE BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SHOWERS /AND A LONE
STORM THAT OCCURRED IN WILLIAMS COUNTY EARLIER/ ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION. THAT IS IN
LINE WITH OUR LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. THE MAIN QUESTION
GOING FORWARD WILL BE WHAT /IF ANY/ SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER-
NIGHT. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO REALITY...AND
THE 18 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC NAM ARE AT ODDS OVER SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THAT PROVIDED LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR US TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
GOING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER.
THE ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE LOWS
BY 2-4 F IN MOST AREAS BASED ON MID-EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

FINALLY...ONE OTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH FOR
LATER FORECAST RELEASES IS HOW THICK SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES MAY
BE FRIDAY. OBSERVATIONS IN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA. THUS...IT/S POSSIBLE THICKER LOW-LEVEL SMOKE MAY
IMPACT PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THE SMOKE WILL BE
SENSIBLE VIA SMELL FRIDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS
ARRIVED AT KISN...WHICH HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT WINDS
TO BEGIN INCREASING A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 060430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EARLIER THINKING CONTINUES. ANY RETURNS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER. WITH LACK OF ANY CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE DO NOT SEE
ENOUGH REASONING TO ADD POPS SO WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN LOW...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF SO ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING CREST OF RIDGE OVER
WESTERN ND AND ADJACENT S CANADA REMAIN NORTH OF INL BORDER AREA.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE NORTHERN FA AFT MIDNIGHT HOWEVER UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. WITH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAINLY
CI WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH
APPROACHING WSHFT WITH COLD FRONT FROM NW-SE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY WINDS BLO 10KTS HOWEVER AT 925 MB 35-40KT FROM
THE SW OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FA SO ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT FAR-
TVF AND BJI PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SHOWERS /AND A LONE
STORM THAT OCCURRED IN WILLIAMS COUNTY EARLIER/ ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION. THAT IS IN
LINE WITH OUR LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. THE MAIN QUESTION
GOING FORWARD WILL BE WHAT /IF ANY/ SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER-
NIGHT. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO REALITY...AND
THE 18 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC NAM ARE AT ODDS OVER SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THAT PROVIDED LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR US TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
GOING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER.
THE ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE LOWS
BY 2-4 F IN MOST AREAS BASED ON MID-EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

FINALLY...ONE OTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH FOR
LATER FORECAST RELEASES IS HOW THICK SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES MAY
BE FRIDAY. OBSERVATIONS IN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA. THUS...IT/S POSSIBLE THICKER LOW-LEVEL SMOKE MAY
IMPACT PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THE SMOKE WILL BE
SENSIBLE VIA SMELL FRIDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MOST OF THE CUMULUS AND ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED SHOWERS /AND A LONE
STORM THAT OCCURRED IN WILLIAMS COUNTY EARLIER/ ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZATION. THAT IS IN
LINE WITH OUR LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. THE MAIN QUESTION
GOING FORWARD WILL BE WHAT /IF ANY/ SHOWER POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER-
NIGHT. RECENT OPERATIONAL HRRR SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO REALITY...AND
THE 18 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC NAM ARE AT ODDS OVER SHOWER POTENTIAL.
THAT PROVIDED LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR US TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
GOING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER.
THE ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE LOWS
BY 2-4 F IN MOST AREAS BASED ON MID-EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

FINALLY...ONE OTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH FOR
LATER FORECAST RELEASES IS HOW THICK SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES MAY
BE FRIDAY. OBSERVATIONS IN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS 4SM FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA. THUS...IT/S POSSIBLE THICKER LOW-LEVEL SMOKE MAY
IMPACT PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THE SMOKE WILL BE
SENSIBLE VIA SMELL FRIDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR SMOKE AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 060236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN LOW...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF SO ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING CREST OF RIDGE OVER
WESTERN ND AND ADJACENT S CANADA REMAIN NORTH OF INL BORDER AREA.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE NORTHERN FA AFT MIDNIGHT HOWEVER UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. WITH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAINLY
CI WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH WSHFT AS CFP MOVES
INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH WSHFT
TRENDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 060236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN LOW...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WINDS HAVE
DROPPED OFF SO ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING CREST OF RIDGE OVER
WESTERN ND AND ADJACENT S CANADA REMAIN NORTH OF INL BORDER AREA.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DROP SOME SHOWERS
INTO THE NORTHERN FA AFT MIDNIGHT HOWEVER UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS OVERDONE. WITH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER MAINLY
CI WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH WSHFT AS CFP MOVES
INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH WSHFT
TRENDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060055
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 060055
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 8 PM CDT
/01 UTC/...AS WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND
10 MPH. HUMIDITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT AS OF 0050 UTC AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE A SLOW RISE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 052330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH WSHFT AS CFP MOVES
INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH WSHFT
TRENDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 052330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SO FAR HIGH BASED CU OVER NW MN NOT DOING MUCH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE NE FA. OTHERWISE WILL BE WATCHING
BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD T CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO N CENTRAL
ND ND TO SEE HOW THAT HOLDS TOGETHER. ADJUSTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH WSHFT AS CFP MOVES
INTO THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE WITH WSHFT
TRENDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052251
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID EVENING IN NORTHWEST ND. A HIGH-BASED SHOWER
DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON NEAR 2230 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH
THE ENTLN TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOT HAS NOT YET SHOWN ANY IN-CLOUD OR
CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MLCAPE
/UP TO 250 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS/ IN THAT AREA SUGGEST A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC SHOWS CUMULUS ALL ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MT SO IT
IS PLAUSIBLE MORE THAN JUST THAT INITIAL SHOWER MAY FORM. THAT
BEING SAID...RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE WITH EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THAT MODEL/S RECENT AND LONGER-TERM BIASES.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EAST CENTRAL
ND FOR NOW GIVEN LATE-AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND ONGOING FIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 052006
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER...AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WITH A VERY
WARM AIR MASS OVERHEAD...MANY SPOTS HAVE REACHED THE 80S TO LOW
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SO
WILL KEEP RED FLAG HEADLINES GOING. A FEW OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE NORTHERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
WV COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THINK THAT ANYTHING WILL BE
VERY ELEVATED AN NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND...BUT INCLUDED SOME
LOW POPS IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING IN CASE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS POP UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND A HIGH START POINT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S.

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL HELP KNOCK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DIG DOWN INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS
WILL MOSTLY HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH FIRST BUT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD AGAIN
SEE 80S ON FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR
AS PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION LOW AND SHORT LIVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIG IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
QUIET WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT WEEK SHALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS UP AND MORE MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO THE
PLAINS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
LIFT NORTH MON NI+GHT INTO TUE...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
COOLING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES....WITH TEMPS DECLINING FROM AROUND 70 TO MORE
SEASONAL MID 60S BE WED/THU.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH FOR TOMORROW. SOME
GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MIN RHS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS IN E ND AND VALLEY AREAS OF NW MN
WITH 20 TO 25 MIN RHS IN THE MN TREES. THESE LOW RHS COMBINED WITH
WEST TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30MPH ARE CREATING RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND AS
TEMPS DECREASE MIN RHS WILL INCREASE. MAX RHS HOWEVER OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FOR
FRIDAY WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH. MIN RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...CREATING
ANOTHER NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR E ND AND THE RRV AREAS OF
MINNESOTA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 052004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 051728
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ND COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN
MORE MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S BEFORE NOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTING TO 30KTS
AND ABOVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER IS AN ISSUE...SO SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW. AT THIS POINT JUST HAVE ABOVE 90 IN THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL SEE IF WE NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP SOME
MORE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POPS/WX TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. BLEND OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY GETTING TO 90
DEGREES. CONSIDERING CAVALIER IS ALREADY 75 THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH FOR TOMORROW. SOME
GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH THIS UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CRITICAL. INCREASING MAX TEMPS AND DECREASING
MIN RHS...DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 WITH GUSTS HIGHER ALONG WITH THE DRY
FUELS ARE CREATING THE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 051728
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ND COUNTIES...THERE HAS BEEN
MORE MIXING THAN ANTICIPATED AND TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S BEFORE NOON. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN GUSTING TO 30KTS
AND ABOVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER IS AN ISSUE...SO SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW. AT THIS POINT JUST HAVE ABOVE 90 IN THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL SEE IF WE NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP SOME
MORE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POPS/WX TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. BLEND OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY GETTING TO 90
DEGREES. CONSIDERING CAVALIER IS ALREADY 75 THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HRS BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH FOR TOMORROW. SOME
GUSTY W WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH THIS UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CRITICAL. INCREASING MAX TEMPS AND DECREASING
MIN RHS...DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 WITH GUSTS HIGHER ALONG WITH THE DRY
FUELS ARE CREATING THE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER
FIRE WEATHER...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1128 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS.
INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS IN
THE LOW 80S WERE ALREADY OCCURRING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 051426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POPS/WX TO REMOVE REMAINDER OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. BLEND OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY GETTING TO 90
DEGREES. CONSIDERING CAVALIER IS ALREADY 75 THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SO BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KDVL AND KGFK THIS
MORNING...WITH 40KTS SHOWING UP IN THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
ABOUT 1000 FT. SHEAR DECREASES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND
SPEEDS END UP TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 051149
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR CLOUD AND SHOWER TRENDS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO EXIT HUBBARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT KDVL AND KGFK THIS
MORNING...WITH 40KTS SHOWING UP IN THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
ABOUT 1000 FT. SHEAR DECREASES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND
SPEEDS END UP TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KBIS AND
KJMS UNTIL 13Z-14Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35KT AT
2000FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051134
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
634 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KBIS AND
KJMS UNTIL 13Z-14Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 35KT AT
2000FT AGL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 051133
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE
FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050930 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
430 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F


THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050858 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND
SPEEDS END UP TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA THIS MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (300 J/KG OF CAPE) HAS LED TO
SOME HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHERN MOST CELL IS LOCATED
IN CLEARWATER COUNTY AND MOVING SSE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE DONE BY SUNRISE. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR ON TRACK FOR
TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT 20C AT 850 MB IN THE FAR NORTH SUPPORTING
NEARLY 90F AT THE SURFACE TODAY. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM TONIGHT
UNDER THE PLUME OF WARM AIR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH LOW PROBABILITY...LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TOWARD
SLIGHTLY SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE NAM. MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT IT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING
SKIES TO CLEAR AND TEMPS TO DIP BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S OR SO
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE UPPER BLOCKING
PATTERN TO CONTINUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMER AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS IT GETS
UNDERCUT A BIT BY THE SRN JET STREAM. HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY TUESDAY...AND EXPECT THE SFC LOW TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NE
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER UPPER RIDGE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT FARTHER SOUTH...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT
RUNS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AND
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE RH VALUES IN SOME AREAS COULD DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF WIND
SPEEDS END UP TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050850 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECTED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE TOPS THE SHORT TERM
HIGHLIGHT.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. GIVEN THESE WIND SPEEDS AND
WITH VERY WARM/DRY AIR IN PLACE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F


THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050828
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
328 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECTED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT WILLISTON THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE TOPS THE SHORT TERM
HIGHLIGHT.

DESPITE VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BETWEEN 13 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL EXCEED 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 5TH AT THE MAJOR CITIES:

  CITY            FORECAST HIGH       RECORD HIGH/YEAR     NORMAL HIGH
WILLISTON             90F               89F/1934               65F
MINOT                 90F               98F/1926               64F
DICKINSON             88F               94F/1926               63F
BISMARCK              87F               97F/1926               65F
JAMESTOWN             87F               96F/1926               65F


THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
OF CANADA. H850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C TO 22C ALONG WITH A BROAD
5700M/(1000-500MB THICKNESS RIDGE) WILL BE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS OUTLINED ABOVE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO
FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTH FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY WHICH IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN PUSHING INTO FAR
WESTERN ALBERTA AND EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR
NORTH...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR LESS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. INSTABILITY FRIDAY IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BUT ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CIN
IS PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS WARM FRIDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN.

CHANGES COME TO THE FORECAST TO START THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MEANDERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LOITERS AROUND THE AREA AND ENDS UP
MERGING WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM THAT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES AT KBIS
AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35KT
AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. MINOT THE WARM SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THIS HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR 2M RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BCCONSMOS BLEND SHOWS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA AND HAVE COLLABORATED THESE THOUGHTS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 16KT...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT
KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS UPDATE. MINOT THE WARM SPOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THIS HOUR AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPING
WINDS OCCUR AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL
HRRR 2M RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BCCONSMOS BLEND SHOWS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA AND HAVE COLLABORATED THESE THOUGHTS WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT 16KT...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DESPITE MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AT
KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 14Z-16Z THURSDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
35KT AT 1500FT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THICKEST CLOUD COVER...WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND AN ISOLATED LTG
STRIKE REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE FAR EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MINOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THICKEST CLOUD COVER...WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND AN ISOLATED LTG
STRIKE REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF A
DRY FORECAST OVER THE FAR EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MINOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050248
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONCE AGAIN...NO REAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. CUMULUS
QUICKLY DWINDLED ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ITS STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEGAN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE...LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AS OF MID EVENING. TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY BE
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE IN LOCALIZED AREAS LIKE MINOT...WHERE HIGHS
TODAY WERE WARMER AND THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND TRAJECTORY THAT
AIDED TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ALSO HOLD THEM UP TONIGHT...BUT THE
GOING FORECAST IS A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
936 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MINOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAVU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. LATE AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...MAINLY AROUND DICKINSON AND IN
THE BOTTINEAU AREA AS OF 0005 UTC. HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NOTE TO THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40-50 F AT THE SURFACE. THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO
RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...WHICH APPEAR MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
SIMULATING SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE HAVE STAYED
THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY OVER CENTRAL ND /INCLUDING AT KBIS AND
KMOT/ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT AT 1500 FT AGL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAVU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST ON TRACK NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CAVU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES...SOME THIN SMOKE ALOFT...AND LIGHT WEST
NORTHWEST BLAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BLAYER
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BLAYER WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA...AND THE GFS GOES NUTS WITH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT THIS ALSO...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SEEMS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THAT
SHOWERS WERE UNABLE TO GET GOING EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL
ND...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
MORE MILD THAN THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKING
IN...STAYING IN THE 40S AND 50S.

TOMORROW...THE RIDGE WILL BE COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
SOME VERY WARM AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 16 TO 20
C RANGE AND LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS IN THE WESTERN PART OF ND THINK
WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE 80S TOMORROW. WILL KEEP
THE HOT FORECAST WE HAVE GOING WITH THE NORTHERN VALLEY SEEING
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. THINK AT THIS POINT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY BUT NOT TOO WINDY...AS 850MB WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KTS AT
THE MAX. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE A GOOD GRADIENT WITH 80S IN THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S IN THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS
BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP AND THE NAM EVEN HAS SOME CAPE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
IT SHOULD BE BACK TO QUIET CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SUPER WARM WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MINOR COOLDOWN SATURDAY /STILL NEAR NORMAL/ AS A
COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM CANADA. LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EVENING WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S... WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING
THE HIGH 60S ON SUNDAY AS WINDS SWAP THROUGH THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY IMPLIES MILD AND STABLE WEATHER. FOLLOWING THIS LOGIC AND
WITH OUR LOW DEWPOINTS... EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THE INITIAL
OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THIS PERIOD. ON MONDAY... AS WE REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE... HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE OF
THE BLOCK BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON TUESDAY... THE WESTERN LOW WILL
SWOOP UP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND THE MIXTURE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S BY WED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE RIDGE
ENDS UP CUTTING OVER OR MORPHING INTO A REX BLOCK... WE MAY STAY
DRY... AS THE LOW WOULD MORE LIKELY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES...SOME THIN SMOKE ALOFT...AND LIGHT WEST
NORTHWEST BLAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BLAYER
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BLAYER WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY...AND WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...RH MAY FALL TO NEAR OR UNDER 20 PERCENT
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH (SOME HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IF WIND SPEEDS AT THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ARE MORE PREDOMINANT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST/HEEREN
AVIATION...GUST
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE EDGING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FURTHER AID IN PRODUCING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

A VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY YIELD
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT.
THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE MAIN ISSUE IN REACHING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS...WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. RECENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE THE DRY TREND FOR NORTH DAKOTA. EVEN IF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DO FORM...A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD LIKELY EVAPORATE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.

THIS WEEKEND...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED EARLY LAST
WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...AT LEAST FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW BY MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS IT CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND DEPICTS
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.

WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING AT KISN LATE TONIGHT AND
KJMS TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. A WARM AND DRY DAY CONTINUES
TO UNFOLD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
WERE SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF BOTTINEAU
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ANY
PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SCATTERED AT 10KFT...STREAMING SOUTHEAST
FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 700MB RH FIELD CAPTURES THIS FIELD
AND SHIFTS IT TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THEN EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING AT KISN LATE TONIGHT AND
KJMS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041807
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
107 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. A WARM AND DRY DAY CONTINUES
TO UNFOLD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
WERE SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF BOTTINEAU
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ANY
PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SCATTERED AT 10KFT...STREAMING SOUTHEAST
FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 700MB RH FIELD CAPTURES THIS FIELD
AND SHIFTS IT TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THEN EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING AT KISN LATE TONIGHT AND
KJMS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES...SOME THIN SMOKE ALOFT...AND LIGHT WEST
NORTHWEST BLAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BLAYER
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BLAYER WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR SKIES...SOME THIN SMOKE ALOFT...AND LIGHT WEST
NORTHWEST BLAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL TRANSIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BLAYER
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BLAYER WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041456
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
WERE SHOWING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF BOTTINEAU
COUNTY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ANY
PRECIPITATION ALOFT IS LIKELY EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SCATTERED AT 10KFT...STREAMING SOUTHEAST
FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 700MB RH FIELD CAPTURES THIS FIELD
AND SHIFTS IT TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THEN EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041421
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041146
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE OTHER THAN FRESHENING UP HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S EAST TO LOW 70S WEST. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...INCHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS STATES. STRONG
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. NAM CAPE IS
RUNNING AROUND 200-400 J/KG...WITH HIGH BASES OF ABOUT 9 KFT IN
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AROUND 4 AM. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT LIKELIHOOD REMAINS LOW. WILL LEAVE
OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CENTRAL
MANITOBA. THESE WINDS WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT FORTUNATELY THE WINDS
WON`T BE TOO STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

BY THURSDAY EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND PROVIDING
ONE OF THE WARMEST NIGHTS WE`VE HAD IN A WHILE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA LOW WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO ONTARIO.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
RIGHT NOW. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE MORNING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE SD
BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WILL LIKELY SURGE INTO THE 80S...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED MAINLY AN ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION
FOR TIMING.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST REGION LIFTING
INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER EAST. BEST PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND MAY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DID
GO WITH SOME PCPN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE...MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SCATTERED AT 10KFT...STREAMING SOUTHEAST
FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 700MB RH FIELD CAPTURES THIS FIELD
AND SHIFTS IT TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THEN EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041123
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SCATTERED AT 10KFT...STREAMING SOUTHEAST
FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH/SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS 700MB RH FIELD CAPTURES THIS FIELD
AND SHIFTS IT TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THEN EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DOWN
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SOME SMOKE FROM A
WILDFIRE IN NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA MAY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
STATE...BRINGING HAZY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 70S. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE DAKOTAS.

ON THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND FLATTENS...EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH 80S FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NORTHWEST MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH SOME LOWER 90S. WILLISTON
IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET
IN 1934. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION AND POPS CONTINUES IN THE
GRIDDED DATA. CONCUR WITH THIS TREND AS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEP
HINTING AT LESS PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...AND
THE GFS IS GENERALLY DRIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH WHERE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS AGAIN...WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MONTANA AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SOME PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TRANSITION INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
COOLING TO AROUND 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL POSSIBLY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH




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