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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 241257
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
657 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS UNTIL AROUND 14Z.
AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS...THERE WERE SOME BANDS OF MVFR CIGS LINGERING
THIS MORNING. EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA AND WILL BE SCT-BKN
OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 241234
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS STILL GUSTY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN ND
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL NOON. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z WITH EXCEPTION OF BJI...WHICH SHOULD
BECOME VFR CLOSER TO 00Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST...AND SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULANCE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z WHEN THE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WINDS FOR TODAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN SE SASKATCHEWAN AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E LATER IN
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE THE SFC LOW DEEPENING WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE RESULT WILL BE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SO
CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST TOWARD
THE DVL BASIN. AS THE LOW DEPARTS NE ACROSS ERN ONTARIO AND THE
SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND VISIBILITY NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW A MILE IN OPEN COUNTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE REGION...BUT MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS KEEP
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AND ADJUSTED POP AND WX GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. GENERAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
DVL BASIN WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE COULD
BE A BAND OF WAA INDUCED LIGHT SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT BY SAT. THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING/PLACEMENT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL BLENDED SOLUTIONS. MODELS WARM TEMPS
UP BY FRIDAY A BIT MORE THAN RECENT RUNS...AND WE COULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL IF WAVE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WOULD BE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SOME SNOW...THEN SOME WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 240938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 240938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240638
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY CHANGE
WAS IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING THE JAMES VALLEY TO HAVE FLURRIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS WITH CLOUDS REMAINING FOR MOST/ALL OF THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...KBIS
THROUGH AROUND 11Z...AND KJMS AROUND 15Z-18Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR
CIGS IN FAR WESTERN ND AND KEPT A MENTION OF SCT-BKN015 AT
KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BE SCT-BKN OVER TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. LATE AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO NW ND AFT 00Z
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240603
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE UP THIS EVENING BUT NOT INCREASING VERY MUCH.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED GRANT COUNTY TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER.
AREA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EAST OVER TIME. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING WAS OVER
SOUTHERN MAN BUT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
MON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ002-003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 240342
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AS
ALL STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAVEN FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06 UTC SOUTH CENTRAL AND
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MVFR STRATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL IMPACT KMOT THROUGH 05 UTC...KBIS THROUGH
12-14 UTC AND KJMS INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 240326
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW FREEZING PRECIP SHIFTING EAST
SOUTH EAST. ADDED ANOTHER 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH TO THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY MON
MORNING.

DECREASED TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR MON MORNING AND INCREASED
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO IN THE FAR EAST. TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER WIND ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-053.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-005-
     006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 240105
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER MO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE LIKELY
EASTERN ZONES. PUSHED BACK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AFTER 9 PM AS WINDS
HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH SO FAR.

ALSO ROADS WERE ICING UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
RADAR/SURFACE OBS INDICATED FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING FROM
GRIGGS, TRAILL, AND STEELE COUNTIES NORTHWARD. LIGHT SNOW HAVE MOVED
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST MN THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW FALLING LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WINDS. MAY BE PROBLEM FOR MON ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
ZONES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240041
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND KEPT IT GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE ADVISORY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BE DROPPED BY 03 UTC...AS NEARLY ALL STATIONS ARE
CONTINUING TO TREND DOWNWARD IN GUSTS. ALSO...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL IN A HIGH POP...LOW QPF SCENARIO
IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED OCCASIONAL
IFR VISIBILITIES AS OF 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AT KISN AND KDIK. HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS/KMOT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IMPACTED BY THE STRATUS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 232258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 232258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING MORE AND MORE REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING ICY
ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. 700MB-500MB DRY LAYER ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERCOOLED
SATURATED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...SO EXPECT A SWITCH TO -SN
EVENTUALLY (I.E. THE PROBABILITY FOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST). ALSO DELAYED THE START OF THE
WIND ADVISORY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022-023.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232046
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN/PCPN TYPE AND WINDS TONIGHT AND
THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
HAD FALLEN TO 19F AT LANGDON AND CANDO BUT WERE STILL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S FROM KGFK-KFAR AND EASTWARD INTO MN. GETTING A FEW
REPORTS OF MIST/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
SO WILL ADD A FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONGEST
BELT OF SFC WINDS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
GUSTS ARE UP IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50KT. LOOKING UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FA NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN CRITERIA YET. WITH ALL THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DARKNESS APPROACHING AS WELL AS NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL ABOUT MEETING CRITERIA HERE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT...SO EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE CLOSE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO CHANGE CURRENT HEADLINES AND WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT WATCH HOW THINGS DEVELOP. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES JUST
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 MAY PICK
UP A DUSTING AND NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY BLSN. WINDS STAY UP INTO
MONDAY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA TUE AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. 12Z MODEL
RUNS HAVE THROWN MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO THIS WITH THE AMERICAN
MODELS WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM STRONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/GEM AS THEY MATCH CONTINUITY
OF 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. CLIPPER SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA WED MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING THE WED NIGHT-SUNDAY
PERIOD IN DROPPING COLD DOME SOUTHWARD AND CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 925 MB WILL HANG FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
NORTH OR SOUTH AT TIMES BUT PROVIDE A LIKELY TRACK FOR DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  ONCE SUCH DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD DEPENDENT ON
SNOW COVER AND IF WE GAIN SNOWCOVER THIS WEEK BLENDED MODEL TEMPS
WILL BE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-
     039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231841
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED BACK POPS AGAIN ESPECIALLY SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE
PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE DROPPING OFF A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A
PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT 18Z. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND END TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ALSO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. VFR ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST MN BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS WITH
IT. STILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID 40S UP AND DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO 30F AT KDVL AND 27F AT LANGDON
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWEST. HAVE SEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIST OR LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA BUT SINCE IT WILL BE SO BRIEF
AND LIGHT WILL NOT MENTION. MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS EXPECTED. EXPECT A DUSTING OF
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO POSSIBLY AROUND AN INCH ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS I94
BUT WILL NOT BE MUCH DOWN THERE. STILL EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD WEST TO EAST BUT WITH LESS SNOW DO NOT EXPECT BLSN. WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

DETAILS OF VSBY AND CIGS ARE A CHALLENGE THRU MONDAY MORNING.  WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  STRONGEST WINDS IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECTING TOO SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WORKS INTO DEVILS LAKE REGION MID MONDAY
MORNING.  DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES MAINLY AT
DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT VSBYS HIGHLY
VARIABLE...WITH UNRESTRICTED AT TIMES AND DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL VERY LIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231551
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TRIMMED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEW NAM IS TRENDING
LOWER. ALSO TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW COVER
SOUTHWEST IS TOO CRUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA AT 15Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW KISN-KMOT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231514
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR FA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOTS OF
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN REGARD TO PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE AND ALSO WINDS
AND TEMPS. AS OF THIS MORNING LOTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. KDVL STILL AT 37F AND HERE IN GRAND FORKS
THE TEMP AT 41F. REGIONAL RADARS NOT PICKING UP TOO MUCH BUT
THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THRU KFAR NOW AND EVEN HAD
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN KGFK. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE PCPN TYPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO MENTION JUST LIQUID TYPE. SO SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING MOVING EAST OF KFAR. OTHERWISE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
FA UNTIL AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN MORE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO VERY LITTLE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200. WITH LESS FALLING SNOW...BLSN ALSO TOUGHER TO GET. THE TEMPS
IN THE 40S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE ALSO SHRUNK THE SNOW PACK
OR CRUSTED IT. THEREFORE ALSO REMOVED THE BLSN MENTIONED TODAY AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REMOVE IT FOR
TONIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 231514
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR FA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOTS OF
ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN REGARD TO PCPN AMOUNTS/TYPE AND ALSO WINDS
AND TEMPS. AS OF THIS MORNING LOTS OF WARM AIR IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. KDVL STILL AT 37F AND HERE IN GRAND FORKS
THE TEMP AT 41F. REGIONAL RADARS NOT PICKING UP TOO MUCH BUT
THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THRU KFAR NOW AND EVEN HAD
A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN KGFK. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE PCPN TYPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR TO MENTION JUST LIQUID TYPE. SO SOME SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS THRU THE MORNING MOVING EAST OF KFAR. OTHERWISE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH COLD AIR OR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR NORTHWEST
FA UNTIL AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON EXPECTED SNOW
AMOUNTS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE
HAVE ALSO DROPPED SNOW AMOUNTS EVEN MORE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
PROBABLY ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO VERY LITTLE ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
200. WITH LESS FALLING SNOW...BLSN ALSO TOUGHER TO GET. THE TEMPS
IN THE 40S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE ALSO SHRUNK THE SNOW PACK
OR CRUSTED IT. THEREFORE ALSO REMOVED THE BLSN MENTIONED TODAY AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REMOVE IT FOR
TONIGHT TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN
DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
IN THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF
BOWBELLS AND MOHALL. COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATUS HAS DROPPED SOUTH TO COVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO
EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAISED SKY COVER TO
CLOUDY MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER THE
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AT 12Z WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE THIS MORNING. MVFR LEVEL CIGS AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS MORNING TO KBIS/KJMS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT
A LULL BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS PATCHY
FOG IN ALL AREAS AND WILL KEEP MENTION UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
611 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GETTING A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT
A LULL BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS PATCHY
FOG IN ALL AREAS AND WILL KEEP MENTION UNTIL AROUND 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BEFORE
RETURNING THE MVFR RANGE. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
BLOWING SNOW NEAR ANY SNOW BAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT...POTENTIALLY A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230945
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW.

AT 3 AM CST...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE WEST WINDS HAD INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS TO 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE FREEZING THERE. IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WINDS HAD TURNED WEST TO SOUTHWEST...AND AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHED TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING -
AND FORTUNATELY THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY
RECEIVED RAIN RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. PRECIPITATION TYPE BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ACT QUICKLY
TO COOL ALL LOW/MID LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. THUS THESE WINDS
ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE
RISES...H850 WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
AFFECT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THUS HAVE ADDED
COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE UNDER A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION
- AND THE RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION - IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS THE BLOWING
SNOW IN THE WORDING OF THE WIND ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
DONE.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...BEGINNING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND
FINALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH
THE VALID END TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LATER
SHIFTS CAN TAKE WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR. IN GENERAL...THE BATTLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MODERATIONS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WARMER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AS OUR SHORT
TERM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW OVER THE FAR EAST THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC BUT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OVER. A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HERE WITH A
WEAKER SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MOST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE SHARPENS AS IT DROPS INTO A
MEAN EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLUTION WHICH
RESULTED IN INCREASING POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HPC WWD DEPICTS
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO JAMESTOWN WITH
2-3 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO OUR SNOW
AMOUNTS UTILIZING HPC QPF WITH A BLEND OF NON-GFS QPF. WILL ADD A
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. BUT WITH THE
CONTINUED RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY...TOO EARLY FOR ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE COULD GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW IF THE STRONGER
NON-GFS SOLUTION DOES VERIFY.

AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST..THE 23 NOV 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE ALL SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST
ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THIS
SCENARIO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT WE ARE GETTING TOO FAR OUT
TO DO MUCH OTHER THAN CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE SOLUTIONS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
IMPACT FROM BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO
STRONG.

MODELS DO DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AS PACIFIC FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD.
THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. THE EC/GEM SHUNT THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH AS THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR DROPS SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER COLD BUT DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-
036-037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230923
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
323 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE UPCOMING WIND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ANY LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF/NAM
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OF LATE...AND HANDLE THE NEXT CLIPPER ON TUE
NIGHT BETTER THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME MORNING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN NEAR
30 MPH IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL START THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE DVL
BASIN AT 18Z...THEN INTO THE VALLEY AT 21Z. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
THERE IS NO BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND...ANY BLOWING SNOW WILL
HAVE TO RESULT FROM WHAT FALLS. MODELS CONTINUE TO LOWER THE QPF
AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS...TO PERHAPS AN INCH OR 1.5 NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS UNDER 1 INCH.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME VSBY REDUCTION WHERE IT IS SNOWING
AND WINDS ARE STRONG...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD VSBY
ISSUES OF 1/2SM...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVY. WE WILL
MONITOR TODAY THOUGH IF MORE SNOW FALLS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT IN
THE DVL BASIN AND NORTH VALLEY. IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPS ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N/NW.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON...THEN
OUT OF THE AREAS BY 00Z TUE. TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND NOT GET OUT OF
THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ON MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD. IF SKIES CLEAR MORE
THAN EXPECTED...THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD GET EVEN COLDER THAN PROGGED.

ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW TO
SE. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE NW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE REST OF THE REGION TUE NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
DVL-GFK-BJI...WHERE 2-4 INCHES COULD FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TUE NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND VSBY ISSUES WITH
FALLING/BLOWING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. WE WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL OVERALL BUT GFS
IS OUTLIER ATTM WITH ECMWF AND GEM SOLNS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
THUS...WENT WITH AN ECMWF/GEM BLEND FOR THIS PACKAGE.

OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS A REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
CONTINUING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTH...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN TIER THRU THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED...AND TEMPS TO
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND
LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230654
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN NEAR REGINA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINED JUST NORTH OF THE MONTANA
BORDER. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN. WINDS IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES F. MEANWHILE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. ATTEMPTING
TO FORECAST THE HOUR BY HOUR TEMPERATURES IN THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. TO MAKE THINGS MORE COMPLICATED...AN AREA OF RADAR
RETURNS WITH PRESUMED LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA
APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN AS WELL. LIKELY RAIN OVER THE
BULK OF THE RADAR RETURN AREA...HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA
MAY BE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES ALREADY
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR.

OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE...AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230654
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
UPDATE.

VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN NEAR REGINA. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD AND REMAINED JUST NORTH OF THE MONTANA
BORDER. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN. WINDS IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE WESTERLY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES F. MEANWHILE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. ATTEMPTING
TO FORECAST THE HOUR BY HOUR TEMPERATURES IN THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING. TO MAKE THINGS MORE COMPLICATED...AN AREA OF RADAR
RETURNS WITH PRESUMED LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS THIS AREA
APPROACHES...TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN AS WELL. LIKELY RAIN OVER THE
BULK OF THE RADAR RETURN AREA...HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AREA
MAY BE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES ALREADY
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR.

OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE...AND AWAIT THE COLD FRONT AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM KBIS TO KJMS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AT KISN AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE AT KISN AROUND 09Z...AND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WITH MVFR CIGS SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230607
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS UPDATES CONTINUE TO BE WORKING OUT...IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
WENT INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DID TAKE OUT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE MIXED PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UPDATED THE SPS TO
MENTION THE MAIN CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230607
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS UPDATES CONTINUE TO BE WORKING OUT...IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
WENT INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DID TAKE OUT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE MIXED PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UPDATED THE SPS TO
MENTION THE MAIN CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE RAIN
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE HAS MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
COMPLICATING THE MATTER IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TENDED TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES IN ADVANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MODEL QPF REMAINING LOW FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS.
DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG










000
FXUS63 KFGF 230339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS
OUR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
THAT THIS AREA HAS A DECENT SNOWPACK WITH MELTING TODAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NOT ANY 1/4SM VSBYS...AND THE 1/2SM VSBYS ARE
LIMITED TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG









000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE 635PM UPDATE IS ACTUALLY COMING TRUE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE THING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH IS IF RAIN CAN FALL IN AREAS WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS AN AREA OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM LANGDON TO CAVALIER TO GRAFTON...WHERE
THE CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE HEADED TOWARD. HOWEVER...AS THIS
RAIN WENT OVER HARVEY ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WHERE REPORTED...SO IT
MAY NOT EVEN BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY (AND STILL THINK TEMPS WILL RISE A BIT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO). THE NEXT BATCH OF POSSIBLE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SHOULD AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230035
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 230035
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEATURE WITHIN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF RAIN SEEN ON RADAR. DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO 40% FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD. RAP INDICATES 925MB
TEMPS INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND WITH ALL SITES CURRENTLY AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING WILL GO ALL LIQUID FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN
FACT...WHEREVER MODELS INDICATE QPF TONIGHT THEY ALSO INCREASE
925MB TEMPS...SO FEEL THAT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS VERY
MINIMAL. THINKING THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP WILL BE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION PRECIP LATER TOMORROW...BUT
EVEN THAT THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. DID ADJUST THE GRIDS TO DECREASE
THE MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WADENA AREA. HRRR/RAP HANDLING THESE CIGS BEST...AND FOLLOWING
THEIR LEAD MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS...AND EXPANDED THE
PATCHY FOG MENTION. NOT SURE HOW DENSE FOG WILL BECOME...AND WILL
MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD/FOG APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AFFECTING SITES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THUS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
KFAR/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI SITES THIS EVENING...WITH A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 230008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR...WITH OTHER LIGHT ECHOES SHOWN BY AREA RADARS
IN EASTERN MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SUPPORT A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN MONTANA EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. HAVE GENERALLY DECEASED POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHWEST...AND TRIED TO SURROUND THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
IN THE CENTRAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN A TRACE TO 0.01...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING...WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING THIS EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SLOW TEMPERATURE DECLINE...SO CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING / TONIGHT. MODEL QPF IS LIGHT...SO AGAIN THINKING IS
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM KMOT AND KBIS TO
PERHAPS KJMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER MVFR
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW KEPT THAT OUT OF THE TAFS
SINCE THE CHANCES APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. WINDS WILL TURN WEST /
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA










000
FXUS63 KBIS 222142
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SHORT TERM CHALLENGE INVOLVES WINTER WEATHER AND WINDS. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS ALBERTA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS THE FOCUS FOR
RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WILL SOME SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE WEST. TONIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
CHANCES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY
NORTH. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING WINDS. DEBATED THE MERITS OF A
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE 1 OR
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER DECIDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY
AS SUFFICIENT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. WILL BREAK OFF THE NORTHERN
PORTION...ALONG HIGHWAY 2 AND NORTH AND MENTION SOME SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SUNDAY WILL
BE BLUSTERY WITH SNOW LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE 25
TO 45 MPH. WAS CONCERNED ABOUT A 9-11 MB PRESSURE RISE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. COULD GET SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM CROSBY TO MINOT TO ROLLA. SUNDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST CENTRAL AND MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED FOR MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...NOW TRENDING BACK COLDER AS BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC
IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES.

REMOVED SNOW MENTION FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WHEN
MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THIS REPEATS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES DO
REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOME WEAK WAA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.

TRENDED THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY COLDER WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHWEST VERSUS ZONAL.

OF MAIN INTEREST AND A RECENT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA (POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE)...WHICH WOULD CREATE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL. BOTH THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC ARE PLACEMENT...WITH
THE GFS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST GIVING A GOOD SHOT OF SNOWFALL TO
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AND KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER. CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL FLIP FLOPS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THE 12Z GEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN ANY PRODUCTS AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 342 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>035-
040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 222130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS IN MANY AREAS OUTRUNNING HIGH TEMP FCST SO RAISED THEM TO
INCLUDE SOME MID 40S IN GRAND FORKS-FARGO REGION AND EAST TOWARD
PARK RAPIDS. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON IN THE LANGDON BOWL
BUT OTHERWISE DID KEEP FAR NORTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES NOT MUCH SNOW FOR OUR AREA SUN
NIGHT-MON LESS THAN PREV RUNS. BUT WIND IS THERE. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. BUT COULD BE
MIXED AS SFC TEMPS COOL SOME BUT AT THIS POINT SEE NO NEED FOR ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS IN MANY AREAS OUTRUNNING HIGH TEMP FCST SO RAISED THEM TO
INCLUDE SOME MID 40S IN GRAND FORKS-FARGO REGION AND EAST TOWARD
PARK RAPIDS. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON IN THE LANGDON BOWL
BUT OTHERWISE DID KEEP FAR NORTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES NOT MUCH SNOW FOR OUR AREA SUN
NIGHT-MON LESS THAN PREV RUNS. BUT WIND IS THERE. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. BUT COULD BE
MIXED AS SFC TEMPS COOL SOME BUT AT THIS POINT SEE NO NEED FOR ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS IN MANY AREAS OUTRUNNING HIGH TEMP FCST SO RAISED THEM TO
INCLUDE SOME MID 40S IN GRAND FORKS-FARGO REGION AND EAST TOWARD
PARK RAPIDS. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON IN THE LANGDON BOWL
BUT OTHERWISE DID KEEP FAR NORTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES NOT MUCH SNOW FOR OUR AREA SUN
NIGHT-MON LESS THAN PREV RUNS. BUT WIND IS THERE. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. BUT COULD BE
MIXED AS SFC TEMPS COOL SOME BUT AT THIS POINT SEE NO NEED FOR ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS IN MANY AREAS OUTRUNNING HIGH TEMP FCST SO RAISED THEM TO
INCLUDE SOME MID 40S IN GRAND FORKS-FARGO REGION AND EAST TOWARD
PARK RAPIDS. CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HOLDING ON IN THE LANGDON BOWL
BUT OTHERWISE DID KEEP FAR NORTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL SUITE INDICATES NOT MUCH SNOW FOR OUR AREA SUN
NIGHT-MON LESS THAN PREV RUNS. BUT WIND IS THERE. SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT PSBL BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. BUT COULD BE
MIXED AS SFC TEMPS COOL SOME BUT AT THIS POINT SEE NO NEED FOR ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


THE BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS THAT WERE BRUSHING KTVF AND KBJI THIS
MORNING HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH. THEY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LANGDON ND TO WASKISH MN. DO NOT BELIEVE THESE WILL WORK
BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS SOUTH-SE SFC FLOW TAKES HOLD TODAY.
STARTED THE DAY OUT CLEAR BUT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND ALREADY. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
QUITE SO SURE YET ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL HOLD THEM OFF
UNTIL THE EVENING BUT WILL WATCH WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LEFT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OUT FOR NOW TOO AS ANYTHING FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN AT KBJI BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY FOR
NOW TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221834
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH SOME FOG
AT ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON. BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN READY TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BEEFED OP POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. LOWED MIX TOMES NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 30 AT ROLLA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. RAIN IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST. AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221619
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY....CLOUD BAND HOLDING LANGDON-WASKISH BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF
LIFTING A BIT NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE IN THE FCST AREA AND
SEEING SOME WARMING NOW THAT SOME MIXING OCCURING. MAIN ISSUE IS
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO MINOT-GARRISON AREA. RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES WITH IT. THIS ISNT HANDLED BY MODELS
WELL. KEPT WRN FCST AREA DRY TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH ANYTHING THAT FALL WOULD BE SPRINKLES. KEPT HIGHS AS
IS. TONIGHT LOTS OF QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. MOST MODELS
HAVE AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WOULD
APPEAR BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP (SNOW) UP
IN SASK INTO MANITOBA. WILL HAVE TO PLAY AROUND WITH PTYPES FOR
AFTN PACKAGE. OVERALL THOUGH ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. INCOMING 12Z MODELS NOW WEAKER WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE LESS
SNOWFALL SUN NIGHT WITH SYSTEM IN OUR NRN VALLEY. STILL HAS THE
WIND THOUGH LATER SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SITES
REPORTING SOME. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR BJI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THAT COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT NORTHERN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME VFR OR
PERHAPS MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THREAT AT THIS POINT IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221619
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY....CLOUD BAND HOLDING LANGDON-WASKISH BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF
LIFTING A BIT NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE IN THE FCST AREA AND
SEEING SOME WARMING NOW THAT SOME MIXING OCCURING. MAIN ISSUE IS
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO MINOT-GARRISON AREA. RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES WITH IT. THIS ISNT HANDLED BY MODELS
WELL. KEPT WRN FCST AREA DRY TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH ANYTHING THAT FALL WOULD BE SPRINKLES. KEPT HIGHS AS
IS. TONIGHT LOTS OF QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. MOST MODELS
HAVE AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WOULD
APPEAR BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP (SNOW) UP
IN SASK INTO MANITOBA. WILL HAVE TO PLAY AROUND WITH PTYPES FOR
AFTN PACKAGE. OVERALL THOUGH ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. INCOMING 12Z MODELS NOW WEAKER WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE LESS
SNOWFALL SUN NIGHT WITH SYSTEM IN OUR NRN VALLEY. STILL HAS THE
WIND THOUGH LATER SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SITES
REPORTING SOME. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR BJI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THAT COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT NORTHERN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME VFR OR
PERHAPS MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THREAT AT THIS POINT IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221619
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY....CLOUD BAND HOLDING LANGDON-WASKISH BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF
LIFTING A BIT NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE IN THE FCST AREA AND
SEEING SOME WARMING NOW THAT SOME MIXING OCCURING. MAIN ISSUE IS
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO MINOT-GARRISON AREA. RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES WITH IT. THIS ISNT HANDLED BY MODELS
WELL. KEPT WRN FCST AREA DRY TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH ANYTHING THAT FALL WOULD BE SPRINKLES. KEPT HIGHS AS
IS. TONIGHT LOTS OF QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. MOST MODELS
HAVE AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WOULD
APPEAR BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP (SNOW) UP
IN SASK INTO MANITOBA. WILL HAVE TO PLAY AROUND WITH PTYPES FOR
AFTN PACKAGE. OVERALL THOUGH ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. INCOMING 12Z MODELS NOW WEAKER WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE LESS
SNOWFALL SUN NIGHT WITH SYSTEM IN OUR NRN VALLEY. STILL HAS THE
WIND THOUGH LATER SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SITES
REPORTING SOME. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR BJI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THAT COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT NORTHERN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME VFR OR
PERHAPS MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THREAT AT THIS POINT IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221619
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TODAY....CLOUD BAND HOLDING LANGDON-WASKISH BUT SOME EVIDENCE OF
LIFTING A BIT NORTH. OTHERWISE SUNSHINE IN THE FCST AREA AND
SEEING SOME WARMING NOW THAT SOME MIXING OCCURING. MAIN ISSUE IS
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUD MOVING INTO MINOT-GARRISON AREA. RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT ECHOES WITH IT. THIS ISNT HANDLED BY MODELS
WELL. KEPT WRN FCST AREA DRY TODAY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH ANYTHING THAT FALL WOULD BE SPRINKLES. KEPT HIGHS AS
IS. TONIGHT LOTS OF QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. MOST MODELS
HAVE AREA IN DRY SLOT WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP. WOULD
APPEAR BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG/LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP (SNOW) UP
IN SASK INTO MANITOBA. WILL HAVE TO PLAY AROUND WITH PTYPES FOR
AFTN PACKAGE. OVERALL THOUGH ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. INCOMING 12Z MODELS NOW WEAKER WITH SYSTEM AND HAVE LESS
SNOWFALL SUN NIGHT WITH SYSTEM IN OUR NRN VALLEY. STILL HAS THE
WIND THOUGH LATER SUN NIGHT/MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WE WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME SITES
REPORTING SOME. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE
THE PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT NEAR 30 FOR
SOME AREAS. THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH NEAR A
BOUNDARY...BUT TO THE SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECT SUNSHINE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BEFORE 06Z...THEN INTO MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY
12Z SUN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARM...AND THE TOP/DOWN METHOD
SUGGESTS MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MAIN PTYPE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART.

FOR SUNDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT DEEPER LIFT AND SATURATION
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST BY 00Z MON. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO NE ND BY AFTERNOON...AND PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO
SNOW IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35-40KT TO MIX FROM 900MB AND
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW IN THE WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE
THERE COULD BE AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO 2 IN THE NORTH WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THIS
WILL HINGE ON WHO GETS SNOW SINCE ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
EITHER MELT TODAY AND SUNDAY...OR CRUST OVER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IN THE GRIDS...HWO AND WEATHER
STORY...AND THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THIS THREAT. WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME SORT OF HEADLINES FOR WIND AT LEAST AND CLOSELY MONITOR
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS. TEMPS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH...AND NOT RISE MUCH ON MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS  HINGING ON JUST HOW CLEAR IT GETS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP/FLOP WITH ECMWF/GEM-NH THE STRONGER AND
GFS/NAM/DGEX WEAKER THIS 00Z RUN. LIKE THE ECMWF POSITION OF
SFC/UPPER FEATURES BASED ON 250MB JET CONFIGURATION...WHICH IS
SIMILAR IN GFS/ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ECMWF/GEM-NH/BLEND QPF
18Z TUE - 06Z WED.

AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
QUICKLY END SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDS OF
10 TO 25 MPH WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW.
ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN TRADING PLACES WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF UPPER
FEATURES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD
STILL BE BELOW END OF NOVEMBER MEDIAN VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS NEAR BJI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THAT COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT NORTHERN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME VFR OR
PERHAPS MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT...BUT THREAT AT THIS POINT IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...EWENS/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221619
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY INITIALLY AS RAIN OR SNOW BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN
AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221619
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

NWS RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH.
BELIEVE MOST OF THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN MAY BE SEEN THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL ND SO ADDED
SOME SMALL POPS CENTRAL. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN CANADA BUT
COULD SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN.
CURRENTLY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA AND
DIPPING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR TO START THE MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A WARM DAY TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE SYSTEM
BRINGING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH MAINLY ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. A SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WAS KEEPING THE SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA IN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY REGIME...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE INTO THE FRONT RANGE
OF MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
INTO MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
REACH THE MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
OVER THE STATE...NEARING 50 IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFTING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...REACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLICATED SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
THE WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME.

OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPECTING RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING
CHANGING RATHER QUICKLY TO SNOW - WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE EVENING COULD BE
MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN - DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING. AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED NEAR
RUGBY ON THE 22 NOV 00 UTC GFS. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN FAR SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BY THIS TIME A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY THAT IF THERE IS SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION
HERE AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY...IT COULD FALL AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL
QUICKLY END AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
MAIN HAZARD ON MONDAY WILL BE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...COMBINED WITH SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT
NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW WE WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING
THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/GEM AND THE ECMWF WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE COLD SURGE AND A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER WEST WITH
THE COLD HIGH DROPPING SOUTH AND THUS THE BUILDING RIDGE IS
FLATTER...WHICH RESULTS IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW A
MODEL BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF A LINE FORM ROUGHLY WILLISTON TO BISMARCK.

IT STILL LOOKS RATHER COLD BUT MAINLY DRY ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT
THE WEST COULD RISE INTO THE 20S. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES
TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MORE ACTIVE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND WHICH
GIVES MAINLY 20S FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR LOWS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
BKN TO OVER MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TODAY INITIALLY AS RAIN OR SNOW BUT MORE LIKELY RAIN
AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION SCENARIO WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE...MAINLY KISN-KDIK. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 12Z MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







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