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000
FXUS63 KFGF 252340
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WINDS ARE DYING OFF AS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS
SOME CIRRUS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATER. OVERALL A NICE QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY RESULTING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WHERE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER.
MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL APPROACH OR BE COLDER
THAN FREEZING. ON SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS (SOUTH WIND) AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A 35-40 KNOT 850MB JET TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD BY THE TIME THIS FEATURE ARRIVES EAST OF THE VALLEY FOR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH ISOLD OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (WITH VERY LIGHT QPF).

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...OVERALL THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE QUIET.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
LATE THURS/THURS NIGHT...WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR KEEPING
THURS/FRI NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP FROM THE SOUTH-SE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL GET A
LITTLE GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THIS POINT JUST WENT WITH
A LITTLE CIRRUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON






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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WILL ISSUE A VFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY
MAINLY FOR KBIS AND KJMS. WILL CARRY A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...HOWEVER WESTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KFGF 251945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY RESULTING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WHERE MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER.
MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY WILL APPROACH OR BE COLDER
THAN FREEZING. ON SUNDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS (SOUTH WIND) AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL MOST LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A 35-40 KNOT 850MB JET TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD BY THE TIME THIS FEATURE ARRIVES EAST OF THE VALLEY FOR
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MONDAY-TUESDAY...REGION WILL BE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH ISOLD OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (WITH VERY LIGHT QPF).

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...OVERALL THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE QUIET.
SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
LATE THURS/THURS NIGHT...WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR KEEPING
THURS/FRI NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO OVER 20 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RRV BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251800
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS WELL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251800
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC...THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS WELL ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251732
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR TODAY...ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BEHIND SHORT WAVE...BUT
THIS BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE AT
850 MB IN ERN ND THIS AFTN. MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THEN EAST SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST LOOK FOR A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT RANGE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS ARENT HAVING THE BEST TIME DEPICTING
FROM GLASGOW MT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NE SD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALL AREAS TODAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING TODAY AND A
FAVORABLE WEST WIND DID UP TEMPS A TAD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH 60-65 REASONABLE...WITH 55-60 EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHILE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS 850
MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. SOME WEAK LIFT AND DECENT 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE RRV/NW MN SUN AFTN-EVE SHOULD BRING A LOW RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISK OF THUNDER MORE OVER NRN MN
SO MOVED THUNDER THREAT A BIT EAST BASED ON MODEL PROGGED 850 MB
SHOWWALTERS SUN AFTN-EVE. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY AT 850 MB IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH FOCUS MORE SO IN ERN MN/WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS THREAT FOR THUNDER SHIFTS EAST...KEPT A LOW RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 06Z MON BEFORE
DRYING IT OUT. VERY MINOR EVENT REGARDLESS. AFTER THIS...A PRETTY
POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MONTANA/SASK
BORDER AT 06Z MON TO NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 06Z TUES. WEAK SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND THUS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEAK AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT WITH BEST CHC IN THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW. AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
QUITE LOW. BUT DEFINITELY A BRISK AND COOLER MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84
HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY FASTER THROUGH DAY 8
THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY FRI. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS ON TUE. WED AND THU TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE
OR SO. ON FRI TEMPS DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO OVER 20 KTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RRV BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY...BECOMING
GUSTY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FOR TODAY...ENJOY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BEHIND SHORT WAVE...BUT
THIS BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE AT
850 MB IN ERN ND THIS AFTN. MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THEN EAST SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST LOOK FOR A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT RANGE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS ARENT HAVING THE BEST TIME DEPICTING
FROM GLASGOW MT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NE SD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALL AREAS TODAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING TODAY AND A
FAVORABLE WEST WIND DID UP TEMPS A TAD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH 60-65 REASONABLE...WITH 55-60 EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHILE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS 850
MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. SOME WEAK LIFT AND DECENT 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE RRV/NW MN SUN AFTN-EVE SHOULD BRING A LOW RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISK OF THUNDER MORE OVER NRN MN
SO MOVED THUNDER THREAT A BIT EAST BASED ON MODEL PROGGED 850 MB
SHOWWALTERS SUN AFTN-EVE. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY AT 850 MB IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH FOCUS MORE SO IN ERN MN/WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS THREAT FOR THUNDER SHIFTS EAST...KEPT A LOW RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 06Z MON BEFORE
DRYING IT OUT. VERY MINOR EVENT REGARDLESS. AFTER THIS...A PRETTY
POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MONTANA/SASK
BORDER AT 06Z MON TO NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 06Z TUES. WEAK SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND THUS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEAK AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT WITH BEST CHC IN THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW. AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
QUITE LOW. BUT DEFINITELY A BRISK AND COOLER MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84
HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY FASTER THROUGH DAY 8
THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY FRI. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS ON TUE. WED AND THU TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE
OR SO. ON FRI TEMPS DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE AREA...A TAD STRONGER
WIND GUSTS PSBL IN THE NRN RRV. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET AND THEN TURN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF MID CLOUDS NR WILLISTON TO
WAHPETON THINNING OUT SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS THINNING OUT TOO.
THIS LEAVES THE TAF SITES GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY-TONIGHT. I THREW
IN SCT250 TO ACCOUNT FOR LONELY CIRRUS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





000
FXUS63 KBIS 251355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
746 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BEHIND SHORT WAVE...BUT
THIS BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE AT
850 MB IN ERN ND THIS AFTN. MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THEN EAST SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST LOOK FOR A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT RANGE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS ARENT HAVING THE BEST TIME DEPICTING
FROM GLASGOW MT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NE SD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALL AREAS TODAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING TODAY AND A
FAVORABLE WEST WIND DID UP TEMPS A TAD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH 60-65 REASONABLE...WITH 55-60 EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHILE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS 850
MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. SOME WEAK LIFT AND DECENT 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE RRV/NW MN SUN AFTN-EVE SHOULD BRING A LOW RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISK OF THUNDER MORE OVER NRN MN
SO MOVED THUNDER THREAT A BIT EAST BASED ON MODEL PROGGED 850 MB
SHOWWALTERS SUN AFTN-EVE. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY AT 850 MB IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH FOCUS MORE SO IN ERN MN/WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS THREAT FOR THUNDER SHIFTS EAST...KEPT A LOW RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 06Z MON BEFORE
DRYING IT OUT. VERY MINOR EVENT REGARDLESS. AFTER THIS...A PRETTY
POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MONTANA/SASK
BORDER AT 06Z MON TO NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 06Z TUES. WEAK SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND THUS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEAK AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT WITH BEST CHC IN THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW. AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
QUITE LOW. BUT DEFINITELY A BRISK AND COOLER MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84
HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY FASTER THROUGH DAY 8
THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY FRI. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS ON TUE. WED AND THU TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE
OR SO. ON FRI TEMPS DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE AREA...A TAD STRONGER
WIND GUSTS PSBL IN THE NRN RRV. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET AND THEN TURN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. BAND OF MID CLOUDS NR WILLINSTON TO
WAHPETON THINNING OUT SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS THINNING OUT TOO.
THIS LEAVES THE TAF SITES GENERALLY CLEAR TODAY-TONIGHT. I THREW
IN SCT250 TO ACCOUNT FOR LONELY CIRRUS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 250900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT BEHIND SHORT WAVE...BUT
THIS BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL BY MIDDAY WITH WARMING TAKING PLACE AT
850 MB IN ERN ND THIS AFTN. MAIN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FCST AREA TODAY MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THEN EAST SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST LOOK FOR A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT RANGE. THERE IS A RIBBON OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MODELS ARENT HAVING THE BEST TIME DEPICTING
FROM GLASGOW MT INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NE SD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING SO SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALL AREAS TODAY. WITH COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING TODAY AND A
FAVORABLE WEST WIND DID UP TEMPS A TAD IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH 60-65 REASONABLE...WITH 55-60 EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA WHILE RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN ERN ND. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON SUNDAY AS 850
MB WARM ADVECTION OCCURS. SOME WEAK LIFT AND DECENT 850 MB THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE RRV/NW MN SUN AFTN-EVE SHOULD BRING A LOW RISK
OF A FEW SHOWERS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISK OF THUNDER MORE OVER NRN MN
SO MOVED THUNDER THREAT A BIT EAST BASED ON MODEL PROGGED 850 MB
SHOWWALTERS SUN AFTN-EVE. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY AT 850 MB IS
PRETTY WEAK WITH FOCUS MORE SO IN ERN MN/WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z MON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS THREAT FOR THUNDER SHIFTS EAST...KEPT A LOW RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN FCST AREA THRU 06Z MON BEFORE
DRYING IT OUT. VERY MINOR EVENT REGARDLESS. AFTER THIS...A PRETTY
POTENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MONTANA/SASK
BORDER AT 06Z MON TO NEAR GRAND FORKS BY 06Z TUES. WEAK SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK AND THUS
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEAK AS WELL. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
FOR SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY AFTN-NIGHT WITH BEST CHC IN THE COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW. AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN
QUITE LOW. BUT DEFINITELY A BRISK AND COOLER MON NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LONG WAVE PATTERN HAD A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLAT RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT 84
HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY FASTER THROUGH DAY 8
THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS AMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY FRI. WILL PREFER THE
SLOWER ECMWF.

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS ON TUE. WED AND THU TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE
OR SO. ON FRI TEMPS DECREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250836
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 250546
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS...MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG A MID-UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK. LATEST MODELS HAVE THIS AREA LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS KEPT CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A BIT LONGER
UNTIL CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATER ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 250425
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION HAS YET TO REACH THE FAR SE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES ON TRACK SO EXPECT THE SE TO
CATCH UP WITH COOLING. LOWERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. CURRENT OBS
SHOWING A FEW SITES AT 24 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR 20Z OBS AND IF WE
GET MORE IN THE 25 TO 26 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY ISSUE
ADVISORY...OTHERWISE HOLD OFF. HAVE HIRES NMM IN FOR WIND GRID
GUIDANCE AND THEY SEEM REASONABLE. NEXT ISSUE FOR SHORT TERM WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND HAVE USED A FCST BLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (26 KTS
SUSTAINED) AROUND TIME OF FCST ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED. VORT OVER MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER PAC NW.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS REGION BY 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME
BUT CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS 2 TO
3 DEG AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AFT
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTERING DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AND SHOULD SEE A DRY AND COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH CWA SAT NIGHT AND COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN
COOLER IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUN AND MON...WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A WAVE
ENTERING DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO 60S ON SUN...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
RIVER IN THE AFTN. 12Z NAM DID HAVE NEG SHOWALTERS WITH GFS VALUES
AROUND ZERO...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTN.
MODELS DEPICTION OF SFC PATTERN STILL QUITE VARIABLE BUT APPEARS
WE COULD BE IN DRY SLOT MONDAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND IN THE NW MON
AFTN. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO
AROUND -2 C...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST PART
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK AS HIGHS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY...KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE COOL AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR/CAVU.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 250238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THESE CLOUDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO EASTERN MONTANA. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 250233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION HAS YET TO REACH THE FAR SE FA WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES ON TRACK SO EXPECT THE SE TO
CATCH UP WITH COOLING. LOWERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. CURRENT OBS
SHOWING A FEW SITES AT 24 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR 20Z OBS AND IF WE
GET MORE IN THE 25 TO 26 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY ISSUE
ADVISORY...OTHERWISE HOLD OFF. HAVE HIRES NMM IN FOR WIND GRID
GUIDANCE AND THEY SEEM REASONABLE. NEXT ISSUE FOR SHORT TERM WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND HAVE USED A FCST BLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (26 KTS
SUSTAINED) AROUND TIME OF FCST ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED. VORT OVER MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER PAC NW.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS REGION BY 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME
BUT CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS 2 TO
3 DEG AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AFT
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTERING DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AND SHOULD SEE A DRY AND COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH CWA SAT NIGHT AND COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN
COOLER IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUN AND MON...WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A WAVE
ENTERING DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO 60S ON SUN...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
RIVER IN THE AFTN. 12Z NAM DID HAVE NEG SHOWALTERS WITH GFS VALUES
AROUND ZERO...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTN.
MODELS DEPICTION OF SFC PATTERN STILL QUITE VARIABLE BUT APPEARS
WE COULD BE IN DRY SLOT MONDAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND IN THE NW MON
AFTN. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO
AROUND -2 C...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST PART
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK AS HIGHS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY...KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE COOL AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR...CAVU/CAVOK.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 242324
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
624 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. CURRENT OBS
SHOWING A FEW SITES AT 24 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR 20Z OBS AND IF WE
GET MORE IN THE 25 TO 26 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY ISSUE
ADVISORY...OTHERWISE HOLD OFF. HAVE HIRES NMM IN FOR WIND GRID
GUIDANCE AND THEY SEEM REASONABLE. NEXT ISSUE FOR SHORT TERM WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND HAVE USED A FCST BLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (26 KTS
SUSTAINED) AROUND TIME OF FCST ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED. VORT OVER MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER PAC NW.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS REGION BY 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME
BUT CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS 2 TO
3 DEG AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AFT
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTERING DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AND SHOULD SEE A DRY AND COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH CWA SAT NIGHT AND COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN
COOLER IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUN AND MON...WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A WAVE
ENTERING DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO 60S ON SUN...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
RIVER IN THE AFTN. 12Z NAM DID HAVE NEG SHOWALTERS WITH GFS VALUES
AROUND ZERO...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTN.
MODELS DEPICTION OF SFC PATTERN STILL QUITE VARIABLE BUT APPEARS
WE COULD BE IN DRY SLOT MONDAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND IN THE NW MON
AFTN. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO
AROUND -2 C...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST PART
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK AS HIGHS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY...KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE COOL AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR...CAVU/CAVOK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 242308
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS GENERATING A SOLID MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL OVER EASTERN
MONTANA TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AND BECOME NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE JET STREAK WEAKENS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT...ADJUSTED THE FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KBIS 241952
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUIET SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THE WINDY REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THUS...A CALMER BUT COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWED THE WARMER EDGE OF THE
12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST SO FAR THIS
MONTH....WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

MODELS PORTRAY A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. HAVE INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES AS A
RESULT OF THE WAA. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
ALLOW FOR LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
MAINLY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE MID TO LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LIMITED
PREVENTING MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. WHILE
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...MIXING LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT...CAA WILL COMMENCE AND WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING MAINLY WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID
50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT MORE
OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS SEASONAL/COOL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD









000
FXUS63 KFGF 241931
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
231 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR AFTN CONTINUES TO BE WINDS. CURRENT OBS
SHOWING A FEW SITES AT 24 KT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS...STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MONITOR 20Z OBS AND IF WE
GET MORE IN THE 25 TO 26 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY ISSUE
ADVISORY...OTHERWISE HOLD OFF. HAVE HIRES NMM IN FOR WIND GRID
GUIDANCE AND THEY SEEM REASONABLE. NEXT ISSUE FOR SHORT TERM WILL
BE TEMPERATURES AND HAVE USED A FCST BLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (26 KTS
SUSTAINED) AROUND TIME OF FCST ISSUANCE. WILL MONITOR AND ISSUE IF
NEEDED. VORT OVER MANITOBA LAKES WILL CONTINUE INTO ONTARIO AND
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER PAC NW.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS REGION BY 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME
BUT CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS 2 TO
3 DEG AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AFT
MIDNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE ENTERING DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN AND SHOULD SEE A DRY AND COOL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SFC RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH CWA SAT NIGHT AND COOLEST TEMPS WILL
BE ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OR EVEN
COOLER IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM. UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z
SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SUN AND MON...WILL TRANSITION TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A WAVE
ENTERING DAKOTAS SUN AFTN. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO 60S ON SUN...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
RIVER IN THE AFTN. 12Z NAM DID HAVE NEG SHOWALTERS WITH GFS VALUES
AROUND ZERO...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE LATE AFTN.
MODELS DEPICTION OF SFC PATTERN STILL QUITE VARIABLE BUT APPEARS
WE COULD BE IN DRY SLOT MONDAY WITH SOME WRAP AROUND IN THE NW MON
AFTN. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND KEEP POPS ALONG
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS
GOING MAINLY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO
AROUND -2 C...SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN DURING THE COOLEST PART
OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THIS WEEK AS HIGHS DIP
INTO THE 40S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY...KEEPING SMALL
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO HELP
REINFORCE COOL AIR AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOL AND DRY AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...AND SHOULD PICK UP WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO BELOW 15 KTS AT SUNSET
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AGAIN NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND 25-30 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241751
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE WINDS.
UPSTREAM OBS STILL SUPPORT WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND HAVE USED HIRES NMM MODEL DATA FOR HOURLY WINDS
THROUGH 03Z. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS IN TOWNER/PEMBINA/CAVALIER
COUNTIES RISE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTN.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS THE 12Z SOUNDINGS DO MIX DOWN A BIT HIGHER
WINDS BUT SO FAR OBS ARE ABOUT WHAT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO SHORT TERM AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
TRENDS. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPARENT ON WV LOOP OVER SRN
MANITOBA...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY IMPACT TEMPS...HOWEVER
MAINLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HWY TWO CORRIDOR STARTING THE DAY
CLEAR AND MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
EARLY MORNING SKY COVER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
AS THEY HAVE BEEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDS
LATER IN THE DAY. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS SRN SASK NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
BUT WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDS AND ADDRESS POTENTIAL ADVISORY IF
NEEDED. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...AND SHOULD PICK UP WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO BELOW 15 KTS AT SUNSET
AND SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
TRENDS. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPARENT ON WV LOOP OVER SRN
MANITOBA...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY IMPACT TEMPS...HOWEVER
MAINLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HWY TWO CORRIDOR STARTING THE DAY
CLEAR AND MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
EARLY MORNING SKY COVER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
AS THEY HAVE BEEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDS
LATER IN THE DAY. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS SRN SASK NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
BUT WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDS AND ADDRESS POTENTIAL ADVISORY IF
NEEDED. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT MAY BRUSH AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AT 15
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
TRENDS. A VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPARENT ON WV LOOP OVER SRN
MANITOBA...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY IMPACT TEMPS...HOWEVER
MAINLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HWY TWO CORRIDOR STARTING THE DAY
CLEAR AND MAY BE THE WARMEST PART OF THE CWA TODAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
EARLY MORNING SKY COVER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
AS THEY HAVE BEEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDS
LATER IN THE DAY. SO FAR WINDS ACROSS SRN SASK NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
BUT WILL MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDS AND ADDRESS POTENTIAL ADVISORY IF
NEEDED. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT MAY BRUSH AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AT 15
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 241433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12 UTC TAF CYCLE. STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 30-35 KTS AT KISN/KMOT AND 25-30 KTS AT
KBIS/KDIK/KJMS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 241203
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
703 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 10 THOUSAND FT MAY BRUSH AREAS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH WEST WINDS AT 15
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 241121
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND WAS MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING OVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE AND JET WAS NOSING INTO WESTERN ND. JET WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST FRI AND FRI NIGHT WHILE SHORT WAVE WILL INTENSIFY
OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL INTENSIFY AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SAT NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY 84 HOURS. UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE
PROGRESSIVE.

A WINDY DAY EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 KNOTS TO MIX DOWN AS ADIABATIC LAYER IS
FORECAST FROM SURFACE TO AROUND 850 HPA. SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. RESPECTABLE WARM ADVECTION FORECAST FOR
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL SHIFT PRECIP MORE TO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES.  AN 500 MB TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY.  SFC LOW AND MOST OF THE PRECIP JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY THEN AS IT MOVES EAST SYSTEM DOES WRAP UP
SOME AND SENDS COLDER AIR BRIEFLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS.  COLDER AIR GETS SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ALONG THE BORDER WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  ECMWF MODELS REMAINS A TAD STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THESE THAN THE GFS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND WITH COOLER AIR HAD TO THROW IN SOME
MIX OF RA/SN AT TIMES IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA AT
TIMES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 240833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS WINDS...AND ELEVATED OR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION FOR THOSE DETAILS.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND SUNRISE...AND SWEEPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING/AROUND NOON. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 MPH OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TO 25 TO NEAR 30
MPH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

GOOD MIXING ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A RETURN
TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES. COOL FRONT STARTS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA LATE DAY WHICH COMBINED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER
NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THIS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREAD OVER
THE AREA AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGH PUSHES
IN. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER...CLOSER TO
AVERAGE. SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY. RIDGE THEN
TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE CRITICAL WEATHER ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND EXPECTED WINDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

WINDS:
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.

TEMPS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY:
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. THE DRIEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON
(LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES) SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SOUTHEAST...AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT ACROSS ALL/MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FUELS:
LATEST HERBACEOUS FUEL MOISTURE FROM NFDRS MODEL INDICATES DRIEST
GRASSLANDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A BIT MORE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS
ARE DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

SUMMARY:
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 2-3
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
HIGHER RESIDUAL GRASSLAND FUEL MOISTURE IS IN NFDRS MODEL...AND
WHERE THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN MAINLY IN THE LOW AND MEDIUM
CATEGORIES OF LATE.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
TODAY...BUT NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 240533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST...WITH SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS OF 35 TO 45.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARILY SCT-BKN CI TO AFFECT FA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE DVL
BASIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 240302
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED. FORECAST GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WINDS TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER IN 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TEENS C INTO THE REGION.
WITH DECENT MIXING FROM THE WINDS AND THE MILD AIR MASS...LOWS
WILL STAY IN THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA
WILL BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
850MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...AND EVEN WITH
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EAST...TEMPS SHOULD GET VERY MILD AND APPROACH 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THERE SHOULD BE GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB. THE GFS IS GUNG HO
ON WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...WITH AROUND 40 KTS
POSSIBLE WHILE THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW BUT WILL GO CLOSE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MORE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK THAT MIXING
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS BEGIN TO
INDICATE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE SUNDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST. THE ECMWF AND NAM BREAK OUT SOME PRECIP IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE 00Z MONDAY...THOUGH THE GEM IS DRY AND GFS IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS SFC PATTERN DEPICTIONS AS THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SFC LOW
OVER NW WI AT 12Z TUE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
FEATURE. GFS SOLUTION IS MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AND HAS HIGHEST
QPF OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. GFS ALSO MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE ECMWF PUSHES LOW OVER CNTRL GRT
LKS AND ENDS PRECIP TUE NIGHT. CONTINUITY AND UPDATED GRIDS
REPRESENT FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DRY CONDS ON WED...BUT WILL BE
A SYSTEM TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SW OVER NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT WINDS
TO PICK UP AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240243
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 160+ KNOT
JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NOSING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA. AS A RESULT...INCREASED FIRST PERIOD SKY COVER
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY POINT TO GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SHORT TERM
MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE BROAD H500
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST WINDS. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BE
IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY... THEY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SEE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AND MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY. WITH GOOD MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD
SEE HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...TO THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
AN ONWARDS. BEFOREHAND...FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS...OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LEAD WAVES FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE FLOW AND THROUGH OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. OPTED TO INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY DAYTIME WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL UNDER THIS PATTERN. QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL BE SATURATED
ENOUGH AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANY
MOISTURE TO REACH THE SURFACE...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE USAGE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALONG TO BEHIND THE WAVE CAA WILL COMMENCE AND MAY SEE A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING IF WE HAVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION. HIGHS MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE
OCTOBER-ISH...MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNCERTAINTY AS WE PROGRESS
TOWARDS HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT OR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 KTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH. THIS
WILL IMPACT KMOT THE MOST WITH WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS LATEST
WIND FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE
INDICATED.

IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ELEVATED.

REPORTS FROM FIRE MANAGERS INDICATED THAT THE GRASSLANDS ARE
DRY/CURED ENOUGH TO BURN READILY SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA.

HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE LATEST WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...WAA







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