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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO REFINE POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06UTC
TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 12UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 240624
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO REFINE POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 06UTC
TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WERE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 12UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240415
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND
WILL LEAVE THIS MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ON
THU. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER BY TUE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH SO WON/T INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT
SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 240233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 240233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW IN COVERAGE THROUGH 230 UTC
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN...IT HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR.
SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. SEE SPC MCD 1452 FOR DETAILS REGARDING TRENDS
THROUGH 345 UTC AS STORMS PROPAGATE EAST. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH STORMS NOW EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AROUND 07-09 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 240007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
707 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING...AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
540 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. STILL MONITORING
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MONTANA OVER
THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE 20 UTC HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
MONTANA SURFACE BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BY 03-04 UTC...CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
BY 08-09 UTC SUSTAINED BY A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 85 AS THE MONTANA CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00
UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
03-04 UTC...AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 08-09 UTC. SEE
TAFS FOR TIMING AND THREAT DETAILS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 232021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 232021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS KEEPING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A
SHARP RIDGE WAS IN PLACE FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND EASTERN MT/WY. BEST SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPES OVER THE
FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE/DEVELOP INTO NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA DURING THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ONGOING CONVECTION DAYBREAK THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE WEST AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE ROCKIES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT
RANGE WILL HAVE MOVED/DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PLENTY OF SHEAR...CAPE
(ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE)...AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL
POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE STATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD
BE THE RULE. ANY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE POPS UP IN MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 232001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SOME CELLULAR CU FORMING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE
SCATTERED VFR DECK LIKELY TO FORM VCNTY KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...TRENDING SE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING ABV 10KT LATER IN TAF PERIOD THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB






000
FXUS63 KFGF 232001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CUMULUS FIELD FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FA WHILE A STEADY STREAM OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE WESTERN FA. THINK THE CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT THERE WILL BE A STEADY
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN KEEPING AT LEAST THE WEST
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKS LIKE TSTMS SHOULD FIRE OUT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF ND TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TREND EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INSERT SOME LOW TSTM CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT IN CASE ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHES OUR FAR WEST. PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
WITH STEADY WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP THESE TSTMS GOING OUT
WEST THRU THE NIGHT. QUESTION THEN IS HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO
THE WEST AFFECTS THE FA ON THU. AT THIS POINT SINCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET HOLDS TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL
MAINTAIN TSTM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH AS THEY WERE. DO NOT HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THU NIGHT CHANCES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST ON
KEEPING SOMETHING LINGERING IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO EASTERN ND. PRETTY HARD TO
ELIMINATE PCPN CHANCES FOR ANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ABOVE MENTIONED SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST MN
ON FRIDAY. HIGHER DEW POINT VALUES POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BRING MORE TSTMS TO THESE AREAS. SPC DAY3
OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR MOST OF OUR FA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN FA
ON SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN ND/HIGHWAY 10 IN MN.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN FAMOUS AGREEMENT
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
REGION PROPAGATING TO THE EAST DURING SUNDAY TAKING ANY PCPN OUT
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SUNNY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LONG WAVE RANGE WILL
STAY IN PLACE FROM MONTANA THROUGH DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HINT OF A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW BY DAY 7...MAYBE TOO FAST BUT
MAINTAINED ALLBLEND LOW POPS AS THE PERIOD ENDS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SOME CELLULAR CU FORMING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE
SCATTERED VFR DECK LIKELY TO FORM VCNTY KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...TRENDING SE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING ABV 10KT LATER IN TAF PERIOD THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NAM/HRRR/GEM MODELS DO NOT INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDER THERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF LATE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL LOOKING
LESS LIKELY NOW. WILL CONCENTRATE ON CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NAM/HRRR/GEM MODELS DO NOT INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDER THERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF LATE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL LOOKING
LESS LIKELY NOW. WILL CONCENTRATE ON CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NAM/HRRR/GEM MODELS DO NOT INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDER THERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF LATE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL LOOKING
LESS LIKELY NOW. WILL CONCENTRATE ON CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NAM/HRRR/GEM MODELS DO NOT INDICATE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDER THERE. STILL LOOKING LIKE CHANCES OF LATE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL LOOKING
LESS LIKELY NOW. WILL CONCENTRATE ON CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN THE LATER AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

LINGERING AREA OF MVFR CIGS EXTENDED FROM NEAR TIOGA AND STANLEY
AIRPORTS TO KMOT TO HEAR HARVEY AIRPORTS. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z-03Z. CHANCE OF TSRA AFT 03Z AT KISN...VCTS AT KDIK AFT
05Z...AND CHC -TSRA AFT 05Z AT KMOT/KBIS...AFT 06Z AT KJMS. STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AT KISN/KDIK/KMOT...BUT TOO FAR OUT IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ANY MORE SPECIFIC PARAMETERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231746
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BENSON COUNTY
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. THEREFORE WILL NOT
EXTEND THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ANY LONGER BUT WILL MONITOR. THE
THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE KDVL REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN A BIT
SO WILL LOWER HIGHS THERE A FEW DEGREES TOO. REST OF FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SOME CELLULAR CU FORMING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE
SCATTERED VFR DECK LIKELY TO FORM VCNTY KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...TRENDING SE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE
INCREASING ABV 10KT LATER IN TAF PERIOD THURSDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 231508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF MINOT AND BETWEEN THE HARVEY AND BOTTINEAU
AREA. MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS ADDED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH GOOD
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TODAY.

WILL BE MONITORING LATEST MODEL RUNS...AS IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT SEVERE WORDING
MAY BE NEEDED. SEE LATER UPDATES TODAY FOR ANY CHANGES REGARDING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS. SEE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR REFERENCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231458
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN VALLEY
CITY AND LISBON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
BENSON COUNTY ND. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST BENSON AND EDDY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
TOO. BEEFED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT MORE FOR THE MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231458
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN VALLEY
CITY AND LISBON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
BENSON COUNTY ND. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST BENSON AND EDDY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
TOO. BEEFED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT MORE FOR THE MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231458
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN VALLEY
CITY AND LISBON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
BENSON COUNTY ND. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST BENSON AND EDDY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
TOO. BEEFED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT MORE FOR THE MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231458
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS NOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN VALLEY
CITY AND LISBON. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
BENSON COUNTY ND. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHWEST BENSON AND EDDY COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
TOO. BEEFED UP CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT MORE FOR THE MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 231337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
837 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE REACHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA NOW. THESE
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN OVERALL COVERAGE SO DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO
LAST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. THEREFORE ADDED THEM TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR ONLY ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
837 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE REACHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA NOW. THESE
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN OVERALL COVERAGE SO DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO
LAST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. THEREFORE ADDED THEM TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR ONLY ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
837 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE REACHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA NOW. THESE
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN OVERALL COVERAGE SO DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO
LAST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. THEREFORE ADDED THEM TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR ONLY ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
837 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE REACHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FA NOW. THESE
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN OVERALL COVERAGE SO DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO
LAST FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. THEREFORE ADDED THEM TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR ONLY ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST
OF THE FA...AND HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OR DECREASING IN AREA AS
THEY BUMP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST
OF THE FA...AND HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OR DECREASING IN AREA AS
THEY BUMP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST
OF THE FA...AND HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OR DECREASING IN AREA AS
THEY BUMP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 231148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCE CAUSING SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SLOWLY PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST WEST
OF THE FA...AND HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OR DECREASING IN AREA AS
THEY BUMP INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE DRY FORECAST AS A RESULT. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KBIS 231144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 231144
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL NOW MOVING
INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. REFINED THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EARLY MORNING TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED A VCTS TO KJMS EARLY.
VERY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KMOT WHERE SCT/BKN 2 HUNDRED FOOT
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST GUESS IS
THIS PATCH OF IFR WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SCAT THUNDERSTORMS KISN-KDIK-KBIS-KMOT AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

-SHRA / -TSRA WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF MINOT. THESE WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE -TSRA ARE FORECAST IN THE WEST
AFTER 00Z/24TH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION BETWEEN WILLISTON AND BISMARCK
EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN
PICKING UP ON THIS AND THE LATEST RUNS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THAT THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING STORMS AS THEY PUSH
EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

FOLLOWING THAT IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT...MORE SIGNIFICANT...
WAVE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE H5 LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON THE
NORTH DAKOTA SIDE...AND WEAKEN STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE BORDER
FROM MONTANA. THIS AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND IS BEATEN DOWN BY SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING THERMAL RIDGE...THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WA/OR COAST AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE DOWNSTREAM H500
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS AND RAMS DOWN THE RIDGE...A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE
WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE NAM PROBABLY
THE FASTEST. THE ECMWF IS BETWEEN AND PROBABLY THE BEST FOR TIMING
THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 7 PM THURSDAY. NARROW BUT
STRONG THERMAL RIDGE AT H850 AND FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW/SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO NEAR MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTS PROGRESSION INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY COOLER BUT STILL
REASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD BE
THE RULE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA.
WHILE THE STATE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
CANT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INSTABILITY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST AND RIDGE POPS UP IN
MONTANA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH GENERALLY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

-SHRA / -TSRA WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SOUTH OF MINOT. THESE WILL EXPAND THIS MORNING THEN MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE FOR THE AFTERNOON. MORE -TSRA ARE FORECAST IN THE WEST
AFTER 00Z/24TH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF
DVL. WILL ADD SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT AT DVL. ALSO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230835
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THERE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE DRY SURFACE HIGH AND SHORTWAVES
RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO THIS REGION. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR DETAILS. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS TODAY WILL BE DRY...WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE JUST NORTH OF MONTANA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. A SFC TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP
CHANCES. THE BEST THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE
ISOLD).

AND NOW FOR ROGERS LAST DISCUSSION AT FGF...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THEN BEING INGESTED INTO LARGER HUDSON BAY LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SKIRTS THE NORTHWEST ANGLE BEFORE
DIVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. MAJORITY OF PRECIP REMAINS TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ITS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS SAT/SAT
NIGHT WITH DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. MON/TUES LOOK
MOSTLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF
DVL. WILL ADD SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT AT DVL. ALSO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 230612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...AND RADAR IS NOW SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS THAT AREA...AND
REMOVED POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE CONVECTION THAT WAS THERE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE 06Z TAF RELEASE...WORKING ON THE PHILOSOPHY THAT AMENDMENTS
WILL BE SENT IF ANY OF THE ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR HEADED FOR A
TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 230612
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
112 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...AND RADAR IS NOW SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS THAT AREA...AND
REMOVED POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE CONVECTION THAT WAS THERE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. COVERAGE WILL BE SUCH THAT THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE 06Z TAF RELEASE...WORKING ON THE PHILOSOPHY THAT AMENDMENTS
WILL BE SENT IF ANY OF THE ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR HEADED FOR A
TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JPM




000
FXUS63 KFGF 230443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF RAIN FELL OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR LATE TUE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF
DVL. WILL ADD SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT AT DVL. ALSO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KFGF 230443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF RAIN FELL OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY YESTERDAY. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR LATE TUE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WED WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER FOG LOOP INDICATED SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF
DVL. WILL ADD SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 THOUSAND FT AT DVL. ALSO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 230233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 230233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 230233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 230233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOG LOOP INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER WITH STORM IN
WESTERN ND, BLOW OFF SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT
OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 230232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 230232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA
WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE
WORKS EAST. NEXT WAVE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IF
CONVECTION MAKES IT TO OUR AREA IT SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW
POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 222357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 222357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BECOMES MORE SO AS RIDGE
AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOW IN THE FIFTIES.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE FIFTIES. WILL LOOK AT TEMPS AT NEXT
UPDATE. TWEAKED WINDS UP A BIT FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VISIBLE LOOP/SURFACE OBS SHOW FEW CUMULUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. CUMULUS SHOULD REFORM WED BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KBIS 222324
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM  CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MID-EVENING. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222324
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN AREA
OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. FURTHER NORTH...STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THOUGH INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF...THUS SEVERE THREAT IS
MUCH LOWER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM  CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MID-EVENING. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 222126
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 425 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR 4 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA: BILLINGS...SLOPE
BOWMAN...AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES. WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM
MDT.

RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.



.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV











000
FXUS63 KFGF 222044
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH LITTLE MIXING AND GOOD
CLEARING WILL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS IN S MANITOBA SO SOME MIXING EXISTS AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...EVEN WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORM BUT PASS ALONG THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
SHIFT.

SFC HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS FEWER CU
THAN TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY A NEAR PERFECT NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMER DAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING POP CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN FA AS PWATS/INSTABILITY ADVECT IN WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENING POTENT SHORT WAVE.
INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AS UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS ABOVE THE ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN BORDER THRU FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD RATHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE MORE TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND THE GEM IN BETWEEN. WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SOME 20-40 POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF LATE SUNDAY AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF HAS
THE UPPER LOW COMING THROUGH. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND TEMPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS WE SETTLE INTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
VARIABILITY. KDVL AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID DAY TOMORROW TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 222016
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 222016
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 222016
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 222016
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE HIGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE FRONT RANGE. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
THEN A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FARTHER NORTH JUST WEST OF THE
STATE LINE...AND WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
MONTANA/WYOMING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HAS A CHANCE TO SET OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 55 TO 60 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NEAR 90 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON THURSDAY AND TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GFS/NAM MODELS HAVE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SPC HAS PLACED THOSE
AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z SUITE
SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SHOWALTER AVERAGE OF -5C
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 AND 8.5 C/KM...SUPPORTING
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXACT TIMING OF
WHEN/WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND.

PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ABOVE AVERAGE ON
THURSDAY....UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE TEMPERATURE RANGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 221756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SATELLITE PIC LOOP INDICATES REMNANT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM NEAR
LEMMON SD TO EASTERN STARK COUNTY WAS DISSIPATING. EXPECTING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS. STILL KEPT A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT HELD
OFF THE MENTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING QUICKLY THIS PAST HOUR. WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SATELLITE PIC LOOP INDICATES REMNANT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS FROM NEAR
LEMMON SD TO EASTERN STARK COUNTY WAS DISSIPATING. EXPECTING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS. STILL KEPT A
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT HELD
OFF THE MENTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING QUICKLY THIS PAST HOUR. WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER CENTRAL ND. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD BECOME EAST/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z. STILL HAVE VCTS IN KDIK AND
KISN FROM AROUND 21Z-02Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221740
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGES NEED... DID TWEAK THE TEMPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NORTH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8 KTS THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
VARIABILITY. KDVL AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID DAY TOMORROW TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221500
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING QUICKLY THIS PAST HOUR. WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221500
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING QUICKLY THIS PAST HOUR. WINDS A BIT
LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST HOUR AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY WINDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL ALLOW REMAINING FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT AFTER CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO
MAJOR ISSUES. REMOVED SLIVER OF 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA AT 12 UTC AS PRECIP HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY/TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
THERMAL CU IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE 4000 KFT AGL OR HIGHER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTVF AND KBJI.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 221200 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL ALLOW REMAINING FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT AFTER CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO
MAJOR ISSUES. REMOVED SLIVER OF 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA AT 12 UTC AS PRECIP HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY/TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
THERMAL CU IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE 4000 KFT AGL OR HIGHER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTVF AND KBJI.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221200 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL ALLOW REMAINING FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT AFTER CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT REVEALED NO
MAJOR ISSUES. REMOVED SLIVER OF 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA AT 12 UTC AS PRECIP HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO THE MN
ARROWHEAD. ALSO UPDATED SKY/TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
THERMAL CU IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE 4000 KFT AGL OR HIGHER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KTVF AND KBJI.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...ROGERS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221149
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FOG THROUGH 9 AM CDT. CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING WILL BE FOG LEFTOVER FROM RAIN COOLED AIR.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN FOG AT KDIK PRIOR TO 12Z.
THE FOG WILL END BY 14Z MOST AREAS. THEN VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
451 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FORECAST ISSUES TODAY ARE PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER COUNTIES.

THE RAINS OF MONDAY...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...HAVE BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSE TO THE DEW POINT LEVELS. PATCHY FOG HAD
FORMED AT TIOGA...WILLIAMS COUNTY...AT DICKINSON...AND AROUND
JAMESTOWN. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WERE ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE STATE.

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
PATCHES ALSO DRYING UP AS LOWER DEW POINT AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN AND
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING NORTH JUST WEST
OF THE STATE LINE. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING. THE COMBINATION...IN SLIGHTLY INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR...COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BOWMAN-HETTINGER AREAS.

ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH COOLER LOWS...IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/OR COASTS WILL BE THE DEFINING FORECAST
FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
BY GFS/ECMWF TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH IDAHO BY
THURSDAY THEN INTO SASK/MANT BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IT THEN MEANDERS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A COOLISH WEATHER PATTERN FOR JULY. AS THIS LOW BEGINS ITS
JOURNEY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA IT WILL FLATTEN AN H500 RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS MEANS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND FORCE A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 90S SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY GOING 30-40 POPS FOR THIS. AFTER
FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING THE REGION ON ITS SOUTHERN SIDE WHICH
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. SPOTTY 20 POPS FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD WITH IFR CIGS AND PATCHES OF FOG WITH IFR
VSBYS WERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. THESE HAVE
FORMED IN PART FROM THE RAIN OF MONDAY AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE TAFS...TO DISSIPATE AS LOWER DEW
POINT AIR WORKS IN AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS BY 15Z.

AN ISOLATED -TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM KDIK THROUGH KISN AFTER 18Z.
OTHERWISE TAFS REFLECT VFR WEATHER...BUT A REFORMING OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JPM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220852
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW WAKE LOW INDUCED HIGH WIND WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT. AFTER INITIAL HIGH WIND REPORT A GFK...
STRONGER WINDS HAVE FAILED TO MATERIALIZE FARTHER EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MN. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING
SFC LOW AROUND 30 MPH...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. OTHER FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING STILL ON
TRACK FROM HEAVIER RAIN LAST EVENING.

LAST OF WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH LAKE OF THE
WOODS/BELTRAMI/CLEARWATER COUNTIES AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12 UTC. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE. SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
FAIR WEATHER THERMAL CU...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE IN
BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WIND. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM TODAYS HIGHS
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES FROM THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND ITS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WILL INCREASE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WESTERN ND
INTO CENTRAL SD ALONG NARROW PLUME OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGING...AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH
EXACT VALUES DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW (FOR
EXAMPLE...IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
THAN FORECASTED).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL AFFECT THE GFK AREA FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO MOVING INTO THE TVF AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AS SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS MOVE THESE WINDS
INTO BJI IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE WILL SEE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS IN STRONGER SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER







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