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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12Z NAM SHOWS STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS (50 KTS)
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY 00Z-06Z AND AT THIS TIME THE INVERSION
WILL BE SETTING UP. DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING WINDS TO MIX
ARE IN THE 35KT RANGE...A TAD HIGHER UP AROUND HALLOCK-PEMBINA.
THUS FORSEE WINDY CONDITIONS BUT JUST BLO ADVISORY LEVELS.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SMALL AREA AROUND PEMBINA-HALLOCK. FULL SUN
TODAY AND TEMPS APPEAR OK. &&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND. ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP AROUND 2500 FEET AGL. THIS WILL LIMIT
MIXING. STILL...WITH MIN TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY DESPITE
MIXING ISSUE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 35KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211050
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS THROUGH 20Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KISN/KDIK BETWEEN 06Z-09Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
INTO KMOT/KBIS 12Z WEDNESDAY. A VCSH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WAS INCLUDED AT KISN/KMOT/KBIS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TODAY THEN PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THE GFS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE WED SYSTEM...SO WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM/ECMWF THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A WINDY DAY IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE 35KT TO MIX FROM ABOUT 900MB IN THE
19-23Z TIMEFRAME...AND WINDS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY LEVELS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM NICELY WITH NEARLY FULL INSOLATION.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY/BREEZY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING. THERE WILL SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH LATE...WITH
SHOWALTERS AROUND 3C AND EVEN SOME 850MB CAPE AROUND 600 J/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AT LEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTH
AND WEST AFTER 9Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...A BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN AND A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR
BY AFTERNOON INTO THE VALLEY...THEN MOVE EAST AROUND 00Z THU.
THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN ND...MOVING INTO WESTERN MN INTO WED EVENING. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.20 AND STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT SHOWERS BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...THE RAIN SHOWER BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE MN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z THU...THEN OUT OF THE FA BY 12Z THU.

FOR THU...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA AND LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT
84 HOURS. THE ECMWF UPPER AIR WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT DAY
7...TIMING OF SURFACE FEATURES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT DAY 7
HOWEVER THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS FARTHER NORTH. WILL BLEND THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.

COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY INCREASE ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON FRI AND SAT AND
ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN AND MON FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTH INTO MANITOBA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF LEADING SHORTWAVES BETWEEN
MONTANA AND WYOMING GENERATING LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS. MAIN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WAS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHERN OREGON.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHALLOWER/WEAKER NAM AND MUCH HIGHER/STRONGER
GFS. HENCE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOLLOW THE SAME SCENARIO. WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY/UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...USUALLY
MORE DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN/SUSTAIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PAST
EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN TAKEN A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER NAM AND
STRONGER GFS VERIFIES BETTER THAN TAKING EITHER SOLUTION. THUS
EXPECT THE STRONGEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. WINDS TAPER OFF
QUICKLY FARTHER WEST. ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING EAST THEREAFTER. MOST LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AREA...BUT WILL ALERT THE DAY/EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED STRIKE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE EVENING
TIME PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER AND DELAYED
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
70S EAST CENTRAL AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FRO THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOWER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ON WEDNESDAY...TROF WITH BASE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER
THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONGEST LIFT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...BROAD RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS HINTING AT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT TEMPERATURES AVERAGING +7 TO +12 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
THAN 24HR AGO AS A SOUTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUE. FORECAST PARAMETERS IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS THUS
NO UPDATES WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ON TRACK
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT TEMPERATURES AVERAGING +7 TO +12 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT
THAN 24HR AGO AS A SOUTHEAST WIND TO 10 MPH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUE. FORECAST PARAMETERS IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS THUS
NO UPDATES WARRANTED. WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ON TRACK
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOWERED MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FAR NE
WHERE READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW BECOMING WINDY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KTS PSBL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210233
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND BLENDED TO THE OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 202327
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID/LATE AM BECOMING WINDY BY NOON WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH A
RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT EXPECTED WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KBIS/KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202033
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OVER NORTHERN MN WILL ALL BUT BAUDETTE AND
WASKISH IN THE CLOUDS AT MID AFTN. THESE WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY AREA WIDE TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ENSURE A FAST DROP IN TEMPS
EAST OF THE RED RIVER. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WEST OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. CLEAR SKY TUESDAY AS WELL
BUT WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH TO OUR WEST
LOOK FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND SET UP OVER ERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. 35 KTS TO MIX AT 925 MB
SO LOOKING PRETTY WINDY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS...MOST FAVORED IN THESE EVENTS THE NRN VALLEY FROM
CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR. WIND TO STAY UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS
UP FROM THE SOUTH AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST WITH CONTINUED CHC OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING EAST A LITTLE WED NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP
APPEARS TO REMAIN FROM ERN SD INTO WRN MN IN NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT DO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THIS
BAND...BUT DOES APPEAR A BIT BETTER FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. GOING WITH HPC...PRECIP AMTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY WITH TEMPS STILL MILD.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE AS 500MB RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...15 TO 20 DEGREES NEAR 70 IN SPOTS...WILL
GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A FROPA FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER 50S.
SLIGHT CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM APPEARING TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS S CANADA AND DRAG A FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WOULD DROP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR END OF OCT NORMALS


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 202010
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. A LARGE H500
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INLAND.
GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE H850
TEMPS CLOSE TO +20C ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS OVER 40 DEGREES WERE
OBSERVED BUT THESE WERE AIDED BY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MIXING FROM
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 MPH OR SO SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. FOLLOWED
THE PREFERRED GUIDANCE OF BCALLBLEND FOR TUESDAY MIN`S WHICH GAVE
LOW IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE LONG TERM LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET...WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE ONLY RIPPLE IN THE FORECAST IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH AND THE MAJORITY OF THE THERMODYNAMICS
SOUTH...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST (NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW) AND SOUTHEAST (ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY).

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH READINGS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201755
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1255 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDS DISSIPATING CAVALIER-HALLOCK-THIEF RIVER FALLS AREA ATTM
AND SUNSHINE WEST OF THIS LINE...CLOUDS NORTHEAST. TEMPS RISING A
BIT FASTER THAN PROGGED IN SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS SO UPPED HIGHS
JUST A TAD IN SUNNY AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT SOME UPPER 40S STILL IN
LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION...BUT UPSTREAM SHOWS BREAKS OCCURRING IN
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA SO FEEL THAT AREA TOO WILL SCATTER OUT LATER
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH BJI AND TVF ONLY TAF SITES WITH CIGS...MVFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE...SCT OUT AROUND 20Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND SKC OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTINESS EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING
ONCE INVERSION BURNS OFF NEAR 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201727
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AT 17Z. DEVELOPING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WEST IN MONTANA. A DRY SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 201519
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

BEST COLD ADVECTION TODAY OVER MINNESOTA AND BEST PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA. HAVE SEEN CLOUDS FROM MANITOBA TRYING TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE FAR NRN RRV AND FAR NW MN BUT ALSO TENDING TO SCATTER OUT
SOME AS WELL. SO WHILE DO THINK SOME CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH A BIT
MORE INTO THE RRV TODAY THEY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AROUND GRAND
FORKS AND THICKEST NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WITH UPPER 40S PROB THE BEST IT CAN
BE DONE WITH MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SUNNY AND VERY MILD TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 201135
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 201123
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A BAND OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA...AND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY NW MN TAF SITES. ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...THE COULD
LINGER ALL DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KBIS 200809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE POCKET OF STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIEST AIR ALOFT ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS WILL SLIDE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY PROVIDING
FOR A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...A
COUPLE OF LEADING WEAK SHORTWAVES NOW IN EASTERN IDAHO WILL SHIFT
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING ANY CHANGE IN
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TONIGHT WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND H85 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
OVERALL LOWER TODAY. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MIXING
WITH THE NAM SHOWING LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS BEING ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GFS HIGHER...BUT STILL SHY FROM MIXING TO 850MB.
WITH A WARMER LOW LEVEL COLUMN IN PLACE BUT LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
VERSUS SUNDAY...THE END RESULT GIVES AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING IN THE WEST...AND A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
THE EAST CENTRAL...WHEN COMPARING TO SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
STILL AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR POP DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL JET TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE EC/GEM WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IN GENERAL MODELS SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL-EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE.
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
50S MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING A MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. BACK TO THE WEST...HAVE
KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MONITOR BUT HAVE LEFT THIS AREA
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND
MILD. THIS IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NO AVIATION HAZARDS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...KS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 200758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200758
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH NO PREFERENCE.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS A BAND OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF NW MN AND
PERHAPS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND AREAS THAT REMAIN CLOUDY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 40S..WITH AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AROUND 60.
THEREFORE...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE CLOUDS TODAY AND SEE HOW
FAR SOUTH THEY PROGRESS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z...AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

FOR TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND IT COULD GUST TO
AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEARLY
FULL INSOLATION AND TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TUE NIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY
AS A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS WITH AROUND 50KT AT 925MB IN THE VALLEY.
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...COULD STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND IT WILL REMAIN MILD.

ON WED/WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYERED SATURATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH SOME WEAK 850MB CAPE AND SHOWALTERS SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...SHIFTING INTO THE VALLEY AND THE EAST BY
WED NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THOUGH...AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADDING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS CLEARING OUT...THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND KNOCK BACK TEMPS INTO THE 50S IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.  THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
TIMING...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW WHICH ARE FAIRLY LOW SUNDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH SEEMS MAINLY AFFECT THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY 8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LIMITED DUE TO TRANSMISSION PROBLEMS...HOWEVER
ENOUGH LOCAL SITES AROUND WITH DEWPOINTS BEING REPORTED IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...HAVE OPTED TO
LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES PER LATEST HRRR. OTHERWISE QUIET
NIGHT AHEAD. THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPS SOME PATCHY FOG JUST EAST OF
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AND DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES...VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS













000
FXUS63 KFGF 200451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

POPULATED WITH OBSERVATIONS DATABASE AND ADJUSTED TO FIT FORECAST
OTRW NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ESTF ISSUANCE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT
633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS












000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 200316
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1016 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND
TO OBSERVED TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 200241 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...EWENS










000
FXUS63 KFGF 200238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 200238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
938 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF FGF CWFA EXCEPT FOR THE LOW REGION.
THE RAP WANTS TO MOVE AREA OF LOWER CIGS INTO CWFA BUT HAS BACKED
OFF ON WESTWARD EXPANSION FROM EARLIER RUNS. RAP 925 MB - 850 MB
GTE 90% RH DEPICTS THE LOW CLOUDS WELL...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. NEWEST WRINKLE IS THE HRRR AND RAP
GENERATING AREAS OF BR/FG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL NOT ADD ATTM AS NEAR
SFC AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY...SO EXPECT THAT ANY BR/FG WOULD BE
ISOLD AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192356
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

INHERITED FORECAST DOING WELL. ONLY TWEAK IS TO THE TIMING OF THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA IN THE 06Z - 12Z TIME PERIOD.
THE RAP 925MB-850MB RH DEPICTS THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO WELL...SO HAVE USED THIS AS GUIDANCE. OTRW NO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND S/B LESS THAN 6 KTS MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT. CAVU FORECAST EXCEPT KBJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN THE 06Z TIME FRAME...BCMG MVFR AFTER 09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 192335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...ZH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST









000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST









000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST









000
FXUS63 KFGF 192034 CCA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST









000
FXUS63 KFGF 192032
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK CLOUD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KFGF 192032
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES...SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISHING WITH NIGHTDFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW PUSHING FROM FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A WEAK CLOUD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND
NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN POLAR AIR
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH LESSER WINDS WE CAN EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WARMER
DEEP LAYER THERMAL RIDGE WILL PUSH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND STEADILY BUILDING WARM AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RATCHET WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE TROGF THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA SHOULD SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TAP WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENED H5 RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL NOAM WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS DRY AND BIT
COOLER OVER THE COMING LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE LONG TERM SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL
TRANSIT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH
09Z.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191910
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KBIS 191910
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
210 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BROAD REX BLOCK ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH THE NORTH COMPONENT OF
THE REX BLOCK THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA TODAY. TO THE WEST AN EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A QUIET AND MILD WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST PROBLEM
THEN BECOMES TEMPERATURES AS WEATHER WILL BE NIL. PAST FEW CYCLES
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL COOL BIAS TO 24H LOW TEMP FORECASTS SO WILL
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TRENDED TOWARDS CONSRAW FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY WITH THE H500 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S WEST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND
70 EAST. SREFBC HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS OF LATE SO
USED THIS FOR MONDAY THEN ADDED A FEW DEGREES AS THE WARM ADVECTION
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BUT MARGINALLY LESS MIXING...SHOULD BALANCE OUT
WITH A WARMER TEMPS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. LOOKING AT HIGHS 65
TO 75 TUESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A
TAD SLOWER...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAINLY IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KFGF 191752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
WITH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTH AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL TRANSIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...GUST






000
FXUS63 KFGF 191752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
FAIR SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PASSING BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EARLY EVENING. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH
WITH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN LATER TODAY. THE SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY HEAD OFF INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD BY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING PRECIP FROM THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH A FAIRLY WARM AIR MASS
MOVING IN WITH THE SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS ALREADY CLEARED OUT...HIGHS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD
DROP DOWN BELOW 40 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS EVEN WITH THE FAIRLY
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. KEPT
HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS OF AN AFFECT
BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STAYING OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT SFC TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS
THANKS TO THE WINDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MORE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS BRING IN SOME 850MB
TEMPS OF NEAR 15 C...BUT KEPT THINGS A BIT COOLER IN THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
HELP KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...EXPECT TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...THE
QUIET OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST
AREAS...AND NO MAJOR STORMS IN SIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTH AND
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED VFR CIGS WILL TRANSIT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL MN FROM 00Z THROUGH 09Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...GUST







000
FXUS63 KBIS 191714
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY WHERE
GOOD MIXING WILL MAX OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 191714
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY WHERE
GOOD MIXING WILL MAX OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS LITTLE TO DO TO IMPROVE THE CURRENT VERY NICE WEATHER AND
FORECAST. JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WEST WINDS IN THE
WEST TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE OTHER
THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT. THE COLD FRONT WAS LINING UP ALONG THE 3HR
PRESSURE FALLS FROM KMOT SOUTH TO KBIS AS SURFACE WINDS WERE
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND MOVE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE
FRONT PER SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS AND FORECAST RH TIME-HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS WILL YIELD A SUNNY FORECAST TODAY. MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO
AROUND 850MB WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
65F TO 70F. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...EXCEPT OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 MPH. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE AS A H7-H5 RIDGE
SLIDES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 34F TO 42F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE. MAIN
ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING
IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

AFTER THE MID WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ADVERTISES A FAST-MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA







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