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000
FXUS63 KFGF 301138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

No significant changes made this update period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

forecast concerns will be severe potential tonight and rain
duration. Models still differ on surface low position however high
resolution models supporting farther north solution. Otherwise
overall message similar with severe potential tonight.

Today will start out sunny with increasing southerly flow/moisture
flux during the afternoon. Surface low to organize over the
northern high plains and will be location of convective
initiation. Farther south solution would have convection
also developing along E-W boundary along the ND/SD border area
where the northern solution keeps convection farther west. With
model differences there is some uncertainty as to when convection
will reach our FA so did not make significant changes to pops.
Should be sufficient solar along with warm advection to get
temperatures a few degrees warmer than Sunday highs.

Main action will be tonight as surface low and related convection
shifts east into the region. Bulk shear not overly impressive and
best upper support lags back into the western/central dakotas.
However strong low level forcing and sufficient cape/instability
for severe storm threat. Slight risk area expanded north and
justified with some model showing farther north solution.

Surface low will reside over the northern fa on Tuesday. Dry
slotting will limit best rain chances to the northern fa. As a
result coolest temperatures will be across the north with
temperatures close to average across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Low becomes stacked Tuesday night across the northern valley
region so only a slow eastward propagation expected. This will
slowly shift wrap around rain band slowly east overnight to the
valley region.

low will pull out Wednesday with best rain chances over the ne fa.
Cooler column and clouds will hold temperatures well blo average.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as sfc low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

With exception of BJI which has localized FG, VFR conditions
expected atleast through mid afternoon. Any lower cigs there after
will be associated with TSRA. At this time still some uncertainty
on arrival time.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300453
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Minimal changes made with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 954 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Added a slight chance of showers in far SE ND late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. HRRR and HopWRF tipped the scales to mentioning
something down near the SD border. NAM/GFS have some FGEN in that
area...but limited CAPEs. Just enough to produce a shower or two
on the ND side.

UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A quiet evening is expected across the forecast area. The latest
HRRR model hints at showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along the
ND/SD border late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The latest NAM
also hints at this although MU-CAPE values supporting elevated
convection stay to the south and west through 12z...except in the
devils lake basin. Will continue with a dry forecast tonight for
now and consider the new NAM and HRRR runs for next update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Main forecast challenge will be severe potential for areas along
and south of the Interstate 94 corridor on Monday afternoon and
Monday evening. As for tonight, the cumulus field is already
showing signs of thinning. There are a few showers left from
Mahnomen to Detroit Lakes, but these should not last too much
longer. Drier air continues to move in from the west, with the dew
point at KDVL already at 41F. With the drier air moving in, not
expecting fog formation tonight. Monday will start out nice, but
storms will increase over the central or western Dakotas by
afternoon. SPC day 2 outlook has areas along and south of the
Interstate 94 corridor in a marginal risk, with Sargent County ND
in a slight risk. This event still a day away, so confidence not
great at the moment in timing or placement of the tstm
development. There is a lot of variation yet in the models, with
the ECMWF slower than the American models. Thinking that storms
will fire over the western or central Dakotas in the afternoon and
move eastward and affect this FA during the late afternoon or
evening. Models do show good agreement in another widespread pcpn
event, with a good one to two inches for most of the FA. Models
also agree on showing most of the pcpn rotating northward later
Monday night, with drying working into portions of far southeast
ND.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

On Tuesday the dry slot remains over southeast ND and portions of
west central MN, with the main pcpn band along and north of
highway 200. As the sfc low lifts NE Tue night into Wed, the pcpn
will slowly turn to lighter wraparound bands.

For Wed night through Sunday...Surface high will be dropping into
northern valley behind an upper ridge that should dry things out
Wed night and keep it dry on Thursday...with slightly cooler
temperatures generally in the 60s...with lower 70s in southeastern
ND. Return flow then sets up Thu night with a frontal system
moving into the area early Fri morning, bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Sat morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A shower or two may exist south of KFAR around sunrise. There is a
low probablity that any showers would make it as far north as
KFAR. Most should stay closer to the SD border.

Added thunderstorms for Monday night in all TAFs. Expecting a
large area of thunderstorms extending NW to SE generally by
evening. There will likely be MVFR or even IFR cigs beyond this
TAF period, first at KDVL and then moving east.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300244
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
944 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A few radar echoes are straddling a line from near Heart Butte
Dam east over to Moffit. Confidence in these showers reaching the
ground is low, given the dry boundary layer in place. However, did
elect to put some chance precipitation probabilities over these
area for a sprinkle or two based on observations and latest HRRR
iterations. Other than that, the forecast looks to be on track
with no major updates needed. Blended the vastest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to
progress across the far south central early sunday evening. Some
uncertainty on how long these will last. The latest HRRR continues
some weak convection across the south most of the night. Will keep
a slight chance going as in the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm potential on Memorial Day Monday and Monday evening
is the focus of the short term forecast.

First of all, weak convection is occurring across southwest ND
this afternoon in association with a weak shortwave trough. Recent
convection-allowing model guidance continues to support the slow
east-northeast propagation of these weak cells into the evening,
when boundary layer cooling causes increasing CIN for surface-
based parcels near the time that the shortwave exits the area. We
then carried low-end PoPs for showers and thunderstorms overnight
in parts of western and central ND in respect to slowly increasing
MUCAPE values and weak, transient signals in various convection-
allowing model simulations for such activity. However, the low-
level jet is forecast to be weak, with 850-MB winds peaking near
25 kt, and broad mid-level height rises also suggest the odds of
convection occurring before daybreak may be minimal.

On Memorial Day Monday, a strong shortwave trough will approach
the state, causing a surface low to develop over western SD. The
concomitant increase in low-level warm and moisture advection is
expected to yield increasing instability, especially in southwest
and south central ND where surface dewpoints are forecast to rise
into the 55-60 F range per a consensus of 12 UTC guidance. Height
falls will commence over western ND by midday and by that time it
is possible the boundary layer will be uncapped, perhaps allowing
for convection to deepen and expand rather early in the day before
return flow has had adequate time to sufficiently moisten and thus
destabilize the air mass. Moreover, anvil blowoff from early-day
convection could stunt downstream warming, also reducing CAPE and
perhaps marginalizing subsequent severe potential, or at the very
least reducing its real extent. Forecast soundings taken in the
pre-convective environment do favor around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/KM, and 0-6-km bulk wind shear
of 30 t0 40 kt, even in the models that do develop convection by
midday. That is sufficient for organized/severe storms posing a
large hail and damaging wind threat where bouyancy is greatest.
Guidance does suggest potential for greater MLCAPE exceeding 2000
J/kg in far south central ND if the boundary layer is allowed to
warm and moisten long enough into the afternoon, again favoring a
greater severe weather threat if storms hold off long enough.

The 12 UTC GFS and NAM, and to a lesser extent 12 UTC ECMWF, favor
an early evolution to storms. However, convection-allowing model
guidance shows disparity in possible timing, as the NCEP-run WRF-
ARW develops storms the quickest and takes them the furthest east
by 21 UTC, while the NCEP WRF-NMM and 4 km NAM Nest are both
slower with deep convective onset, favoring a greater risk of
severe weather, especially in south central ND. The NSSL WRF-ARW
is a medium-ground solution. All of this goes to show that there
is rather considerable uncertainty in the details of the severe
potential. Thus, at this juncture, the only area where we included
an explicit mention of severe thunderstorms within the gridded
and point-and-click forecast is Grant, Sioux, southern Morton,
and Emmons Counties. It`s in that area where calibrated severe
thunderstorm probabilities from the 09 UTC SREF are maximized at
noteworthy values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Cool and potentially wet weather on Tuesday will transition to
warm and mainly dry weather by late week and next weekend.

A 500-MB low is forecast to cross ND on Tuesday, and a shield of
showers and weak thunderstorms will follow the low, with a focus
to its west and north where large-scale forcing will be greatest.
The 00 and 12 UTC NAM solutions are further north than the ECMWF
and GFS simulations with that low. Given the clustering of those
latter two global models, which typically verify better with the
500-MB height fields (even with dynamic waves) at 48+ hours, the
official forecast was weighted toward those ECMWF and GFS ideas.
That means we are carrying 60+ percent PoPs Tuesday over western
and north central ND,and a bit lower PoPs over south central ND in
closer proximity to a potential dry slot. Clouds and showers will
generally keep instability at bay and so severe storms are not
expected. However, in closer proximity to the dry slot tied to the
mid-level low, the 12 UTC guidance suggests 0-3-km SBCAPE may
exceed 150 J/kg, suggesting a non-zero risk of funnels/weak cold
core tornadoes in parts of central ND given ambient/environmental
vorticity. Having said that, those situations are notoriously
difficult to predict, especially beyond 12 hours, and taken at
face value neither the GFS or NAM suggest VGP values great enough
to suggest this threat is anywhere near great enough for any
mention in public hazardous weather outlooks at this time.

Thereafter, we have strong confidence in a reshuffling of the flow
aloft with the main feature of interest a stout ridge aloft that`s
expected to become established over the Great Basin late this week
and next weekend. This favors a warming and drying trend over the
area, with highs expected to reach the 80s Friday through Sunday
based on the 12 UTC multi-model consensus. Northwest flow aloft on
the downstream side of the ridge suggests a mainly dry regime, and
around 50% of the CIPS analog cases derived using the GFS ensemble
support below-normal precipitation in that time period. That said,
the past few GFS and ECMWF runs have shown modest agreement with a
weak northwest-flow shortwave trough passage around Friday, which
could yield a low chance of showers and thunderstorms near then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Main hazard to aviation will be thunderstorms on Monday. An
active period for thunderstorms is expected to develop across west
and central North Dakota along and north of a warm front forecast
to be in northern South Dakota Monday afternoon. Numerous
thunderstorms are forecast to develop after 16-18z and continue
into Monday evening. Expect mainly VFR but can not rule out local
IFR Thunderstorms.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292352
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to
progress across the far south central early sunday evening. Some
uncertainty on how long these will last. The latest HRRR continues
some weak convection across the south most of the night. Will keep
a slight chance going as in the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm potential on Memorial Day Monday and Monday evening
is the focus of the short term forecast.

First of all, weak convection is occurring across southwest ND
this afternoon in association with a weak shortwave trough. Recent
convection-allowing model guidance continues to support the slow
east-northeast propagation of these weak cells into the evening,
when boundary layer cooling causes increasing CIN for surface-
based parcels near the time that the shortwave exits the area. We
then carried low-end PoPs for showers and thunderstorms overnight
in parts of western and central ND in respect to slowly increasing
MUCAPE values and weak, transient signals in various convection-
allowing model simulations for such activity. However, the low-
level jet is forecast to be weak, with 850-MB winds peaking near
25 kt, and broad mid-level height rises also suggest the odds of
convection occurring before daybreak may be minimal.

On Memorial Day Monday, a strong shortwave trough will approach
the state, causing a surface low to develop over western SD. The
concomitant increase in low-level warm and moisture advection is
expected to yield increasing instability, especially in southwest
and south central ND where surface dewpoints are forecast to rise
into the 55-60 F range per a consensus of 12 UTC guidance. Height
falls will commence over western ND by midday and by that time it
is possible the boundary layer will be uncapped, perhaps allowing
for convection to deepen and expand rather early in the day before
return flow has had adequate time to sufficiently moisten and thus
destabilize the air mass. Moreover, anvil blowoff from early-day
convection could stunt downstream warming, also reducing CAPE and
perhaps marginalizing subsequent severe potential, or at the very
least reducing its real extent. Forecast soundings taken in the
pre-convective environment do favor around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/KM, and 0-6-km bulk wind shear
of 30 t0 40 kt, even in the models that do develop convection by
midday. That is sufficient for organized/severe storms posing a
large hail and damaging wind threat where bouyancy is greatest.
Guidance does suggest potential for greater MLCAPE exceeding 2000
J/kg in far south central ND if the boundary layer is allowed to
warm and moisten long enough into the afternoon, again favoring a
greater severe weather threat if storms hold off long enough.

The 12 UTC GFS and NAM, and to a lesser extent 12 UTC ECMWF, favor
an early evolution to storms. However, convection-allowing model
guidance shows disparity in possible timing, as the NCEP-run WRF-
ARW develops storms the quickest and takes them the furthest east
by 21 UTC, while the NCEP WRF-NMM and 4 km NAM Nest are both
slower with deep convective onset, favoring a greater risk of
severe weather, especially in south central ND. The NSSL WRF-ARW
is a medium-ground solution. All of this goes to show that there
is rather considerable uncertainty in the details of the severe
potential. Thus, at this juncture, the only area where we included
an explicit mention of severe thunderstorms within the gridded
and point-and-click forecast is Grant, Sioux, southern Morton,
and Emmons Counties. It`s in that area where calibrated severe
thunderstorm probabilities from the 09 UTC SREF are maximized at
noteworthy values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Cool and potentially wet weather on Tuesday will transition to
warm and mainly dry weather by late week and next weekend.

A 500-MB low is forecast to cross ND on Tuesday, and a shield of
showers and weak thunderstorms will follow the low, with a focus
to its west and north where large-scale forcing will be greatest.
The 00 and 12 UTC NAM solutions are further north than the ECMWF
and GFS simulations with that low. Given the clustering of those
latter two global models, which typically verify better with the
500-MB height fields (even with dynamic waves) at 48+ hours, the
official forecast was weighted toward those ECMWF and GFS ideas.
That means we are carrying 60+ percent PoPs Tuesday over western
and north central ND,and a bit lower PoPs over south central ND in
closer proximity to a potential dry slot. Clouds and showers will
generally keep instability at bay and so severe storms are not
expected. However, in closer proximity to the dry slot tied to the
mid-level low, the 12 UTC guidance suggests 0-3-km SBCAPE may
exceed 150 J/kg, suggesting a non-zero risk of funnels/weak cold
core tornadoes in parts of central ND given ambient/environmental
vorticity. Having said that, those situations are notoriously
difficult to predict, especially beyond 12 hours, and taken at
face value neither the GFS or NAM suggest VGP values great enough
to suggest this threat is anywhere near great enough for any
mention in public hazardous weather outlooks at this time.

Thereafter, we have strong confidence in a reshuffling of the flow
aloft with the main feature of interest a stout ridge aloft that`s
expected to become established over the Great Basin late this week
and next weekend. This favors a warming and drying trend over the
area, with highs expected to reach the 80s Friday through Sunday
based on the 12 UTC multi-model consensus. Northwest flow aloft on
the downstream side of the ridge suggests a mainly dry regime, and
around 50% of the CIPS analog cases derived using the GFS ensemble
support below-normal precipitation in that time period. That said,
the past few GFS and ECMWF runs have shown modest agreement with a
weak northwest-flow shortwave trough passage around Friday, which
could yield a low chance of showers and thunderstorms near then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Main hazard to aviation will be thunderstorms on Monday. An
active period for thunderstorms is expected to develop across west
and central North Dakota along and north of a warm front forecast
to be in northern South Dakota Monday afternoon. Numerous
thunderstorms are forecast to develop after 16-18z and continue
into Monday evening. Expect mainly VFR but can not rule out local
IFR Thunderstorms.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291758
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The thicker cumulus is now along the Red River Valley into
northwest Minnesota and is pushing east. With more sun behind
these thicker clouds, some instability has formed with some weak
CAPE. However drier air is already pushing in from the west with
the steady northwest winds, with dew points dropping across the
western FA. Therefore think the shower activity may be done west
of the Red River, but will last into the afternoon to the east. As
the afternoon goes on expect more sun from west to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

forecast challenges continue to be rain chances and temperatures.

remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east
today. Deformation zone rain band currently east of the valley
should exit the region by noon. will likely see some redevelopment
this afternoon from far northern valley into nw MN along weak
convergence zone and impulse tracking along international border.
convective parameters marginal but cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms. Clearing will spread into the SW half today as
column dries. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high
temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more
solar.

Any lingering shra should diminish with loss of heating this
evening. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler than recent nights.

Dry conditions should hold for most of the day Monday. Early solar
and warm advection should result in warmest temperatures of the
holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Convection developing over the western Dakotas vcnty surface low
and attached boundaries Monday afternoon will propagate east into
the region Monday night. Best potential looks to be across the
south half region in vcnty of boundary/SD surface low and favored
convective parameters. Cannot rule out a few strong storms.

Tuesday will continue to be active as upper low reaches the region
by evening. With potential for surface low position over the
forecast area and enough instability/cape may set up for another
weak tornadic event??

Shra will continue tuesday night as upper low drifts across the
forecast area.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as SFC low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

MVFR cigs AT BJI will climb into VFR range be mid afternoon and some
clearing across MN side of valley expected overnight tonight.  Will
see some showers approaching DVL near end of 18Z TAF period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291152
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Added fog to the southwest FA through mid morning. No other
changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

forecast challenges continue to be rain chances and temperatures.

remnants of upper low over Mn will continue to propagate east
today. Deformation zone rain band currently east of the valley
should exit the region by noon. will likely see some redevelopment
this afternoon from far northern valley into nw MN along weak
convergence zone and impulse tracking along international border.
convective parameters marginal but cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms. Clearing will spread into the SW half today as
column dries. More cloud cover over the NE will likely hold high
temperatures in the 60s with warmer reading to the SW with more
solar.

Any lingering shra should diminish with loss of heating this
evening. With less cloud cover temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler than recent nights.

Dry conditions should hold for most of the day Monday. Early solar
and warm advection should result in warmest temperatures of the
holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Convection developing over the western Dakotas vcnty surface low
and attached boundaries Monday afternoon will propagate east into
the region Monday night. Best potential looks to be across the
south half region in vcnty of boundary/SD surface low and favored
convective parameters. Cannot rule out a few strong storms.

Tuesday will continue to be active as upper low reaches the region
by evening. With potential for surface low position over the
forecast area and enough instability/cape may set up for another
weak tornadic event??

Shra will continue tuesday night as upper low drifts across the
forecast area.

Wednesday to Saturday night...Models have become consistent
with robust short wave trough moving across the northern plains to
start the extended period. Stacked low pressure system centered over
the valley will bring a cool...damp start to June with clouds and
showers lingering into the afternoon especially in NW MN...highs in
the 60s. Thursday and first half of Friday will be dry as 500mb
ridging and NW flow aloft bring weak high pressure to the
Northern Plains. The next CHC for convection arrives Friday PM
into Saturday as SFC low and upper support track across northern
Manitoba dragging a boundary across the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

CIGS MVFR-IFR across all but the far southwest which has cleared
off allowing for patchy dense fog. Expect cigs to slowly lift
through the morning with most areas VFR by afternoon. The
remainder of the period should be VFR.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291127
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Other than to blend to observed trends through 11 UTC, the
forecast remains on track with no changes required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A mostly sunny Sunday after morning fog highlights the short term
forecast.

In a similar setup to the past couple of mornings, areas of fog
will continue to develop across much of western and central North
Dakota towards sunrise this morning, burning off by 14 UTC.
Thereafter, a mostly sunny Sunday is expected as a dry airmass is
advected into the area in the wake of the Saturday disturbance.
Isolated thunderstorms developing across southeast Montana this
afternoon may survive into southwest and far south central North
Dakota this evening and into the tonight with a modest low level
jet. Given limited moisture, severe weather is not expected.
Overall, a blend of the 00 UTC guidance suites were favored for
all fields.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm potential on Memorial Day highlights the extended
forecast.

The trend for widespread thunderstorms on Memorial Day Monday
continues amongst the 00 UTC guidance suites. An upper level wave
across the Pacific Northwest today is forecast to propagate into
eastern Montana and close off on Monday. Low level moisture
transport ahead of this system is expected to yield dew points in
the mid to upper 50s across the southwest and south central. SPC
in their Day 2 Convective Outlook has maintained a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for these areas, and has shrunk the
already small slight risk that was highlighted across southern
North Dakota. This is plausible given greater moisture/instability
focused across South Dakota and possible cloud cover impacts from
convection that is expected to already be ongoing Monday morning
across eastern Montana. Never the less, given the strength of the
wave, widespread thunderstorms are favored Monday afternoon and
evening across the area. WPC has maintained in their QPF forecast
the potential for one to two inches across the northwest and far
north central into Tuesday associated with the pivot point and
wrap around moisture as the upper level low moves into central
North Dakota on Tuesday. A stretch of less active weather is
possible mid to late next week as a possible intermountain west
upper level ridge is favored.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Areas of IFR/LIFR fog across western and central North Dakota will
burn off by 14-15 UTC. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected for
the 12 UTC TAF cycle. Looking ahead, widespread
thunderstorms are expected across North Dakota Monday and Monday
night.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290243
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

As sunset approaches the convection is quickly subsiding. Updated
the pops to end the precipiation shortly after midnight. Kept the
mention of patchy fog where rain fell this afternoon and evening,
which is mainly northwest through portions of the south central.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

This update will refine the chances for thunderstorms along a
line in central north dakota moving east Saturday evening. Severe
weather is not expected with this line however abundant lightning
and brief heavy rain is expected.

added some fog across the northwest and portions of the south
central after midnight as the CONSShort guidance suggested this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Currently...an upper level low was over British Columbia with a
trough extending southeastward into Montana...and a leading vort
energy impulse moving east across western North Dakota. A line of
showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature is forecast
to continue moving east across the state tonight. Meanwhile another
weaker upper level low was over the Red River Valley from Sioux
Falls to near Fargo...with a line of instability with higher CAPE
farther west from near Devils Lake south across the James River
Valley. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms was associated
with this feature, which was moving westward very slowly or was
stationary as the upper low lifts north/northeastward tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms should end from west to east
across our area tonight...and a mid level ridge moves east across
North Dakota through Sunday. A mild and dry day Sunday with mostly
sunny skies is in store for us.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Sunday night an upper level closed low that is currently over
British Columbia develops into a longwave trough as it moves east
into the Canadian and US Rockies. As this occurs a low level jet
develops over the plains along with a southerly return flow as
surface low pressure develops over the Rockies...bringing a return
to higher dewpoints in the 50s/60s to North Dakota on Monday. A few
leading upper level impulses...with increasing instability aided by
the developing low level jet...will warrant keeping a chance of
showers and thunderstorms developing Sunday night mainly in the west
and south central portions of North Dakota.

Monday the upper level closed low/trough moves southeast across
Montana, and a leading shortwave moves east/northeastward across
North Dakota...providing support aloft for widespread showers and
thunderstorms - along with increasing CAPE and bulk shear. This
environment gives us fairly high confidence for severe weather -
especially in the southwest and south central parts of North Dakota.

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the upper low moving east across North
Dakota Tuesday into Wednesday morning, then lifting northeast into
western Ontario Wednesday afternoon. This will keep a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across our area Tuesday and Tuesday night,
then mainly a chance in central North Dakota on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday should be dry with a northwest flow
over North Dakota as an upper level ridge builds over the west coast
and Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main hazards to aviation will be thunderstorms moving through
central North Dakota Saturday evening impacting KBIS-KJMS
primarily between 00-05z. After 06z some fog will be expected to
form over the northwest impacting KISN between 08-14z with vsbys
3br. Otherwise vfr.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 282357
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Lightning has diminished to only a flash or two every 5 minutes.
This indicates the storms weakening...which given the environment
and loss of heating (with increase cloud cover) makes sense. The
non-supercell tornado parameter has also decreased with low level
CAPE weakening...along with the surface convergence (which was
already weak to begin with).

Rain showers across the northern valley will continue for a few
more hours (given latest hrrr/rap runs)...and increased PoPs to
near 100% since it is raining and is fairly widespread across this
area. Showers are very slow moving given weakly sheared
environment...but rain rates are minimal and would be surprised
if any rainfall amounts over an inch or two more were to happen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main forecast challenge will be pcpn chances through the entire
short term forecast. As for late this afternoon and tonight,
visible satellite imagery shows more convective elements to the
clouds along and west of the Red River Valley. This is supported
by the radar, with individual convective cells mainly west of the
Red River Valley. A little more stratiform pcpn is on the MN side
of the river. There was a decent area of stratiform rain working
into central Minnesota, from KSTC to KAXN, but this also appears
to be weakening. Will end up carrying some ISO to SCT pcpn chances
into the evening for most areas. There is a convective line over
the western Dakotas that the models try to bring into the KDVL to
KJMS corridor late tonight. Will keep some pcpn chances in this
area late tonight to cover this potential. If anyone gets any
clearing tonight, the light winds may bring some patchy fog.
Confidence too low at this point to mention, but will pass along
to the next shift to watch. Starting to look like Sunday morning
will start off dry for most areas. By afternoon there may be more
ISO to SCT pcpn chances, but mainly east of the Red River Valley.
These should die off again Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Monday looks like a fairly decent day for the most part. SPC day 3
outlook has portions of the western and central Dakotas in a
slight risk. Models show a sfc low and boundaries in this area by
00Z Tue. Therefore looking at storms firing out west, and working
eastward during the evening and overnight time frame. These could
be strong storms, but will have some time to watch this. By
Tuesday the sfc low is still in this FA, so once again could be
quite a bit of pcpn around.

For Tue night through Sat...500 mb low west of cwa tue afternoon
is progged to open and move east of the region as the extended
period begins...resulting in diminishing pops and sky cover for
wed. northwest flow and cooler air should keep high temps only in
the 60s for wed. high pressure and return flow will result in
quick moderation in time for thu with near average temps
returning by fri. the next wave is likely to approach toward the
weekend...resulting in higher pops returning fri night into sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Expect most sites to become at least MVFR tonight given the
relatively high low level moisture combined with minimal mixing
(winds). Fog and LIFR/IFR conditions are possible...but likelihoodof
occurrence rather low.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB/Godon
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281752
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Current forecast for precip chances looks on track. Noted convection
beginning in southwestern North Dakota from a Beach to
Marmarth/Bowman line as per the short term high res models. Current
surface based CAPE indicates CAPE values from 500-1000 J/Kg over
southern and eastern North Dakota...with low clouds in the northern
areas of the state inhibiting surface heating. Wind shear remains
weak with marginal mid level lapse rates. Thinking has not changed
regarding sub-severe nature of expected convection...but potential
remains for some stronger updrafts that might produce some small
hail that might reach the ground.

Regarding temperatures...temps a bit slower to rise in the north
beneath the low clouds than we had forecast, but not by much. Mainly
blended current temps with afternoon forecast using a blend of high
res models.

UPDATE Issued at 947 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

We made some minor adjustments to PoPs through the late morning to
reflect the ongoing generally dry conditions. We still expect that
to change by afternoon, when shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase. Forecast soundings, including from the most recent RAP,
support up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE developing over western ND ahead
of the shortwave trough moving through eastern MT this morning. We
expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop as that wave
moves eastward, likely reaching the Highway 83 corridor by 23-01
UTC per recent convection-allowing model guidance. Deep-layer
shear will be weak, so we expect storms to be sub-severe, but cold
air aloft with 500 MB temperatures near -16 C suggests stronger
updrafts could produce small hail.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The 06-10 UTC high resolution suites are well in support of the
previous forecast for today highlighted by morning fog and
followed by afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially
across the west. The forecast was blended to observed trends
through 11 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Stratus across the north and into portions of central North Dakota
this morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing
west in the afternoon moving into central ND late afternoon into
the evening highlight the short term period.

The latest fog/stratus loop and surface observations show a wide
swath of stratus north through portions of central North Dakota
early this morning. Where the stratus has lowered enough to reach
ground level, patchy fog is being reported with visibilities
mainly between 3 and 6 miles. Have followed the HRRR and RAP13
for initialization and sky forecast. Low level northeast winds
continue to advect in the lower clouds from southern Canada. A
good proxy for the southern most extent should be near and along a
line from Dickinson into Bismarck and Jamestown. These clouds will
slowly lift through the morning with an overall mostly cloudy sky
dominating.

The water vapor imagery shows our next pair of shortwaves, one
located near Phillips, Montana, and the second scooting through
the Idaho panhandle. These shortwaves and an associated surface
cold front will be the catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
initiation in the west between 18z and 21z today, then shifting
toward central North Dakota between 00z and 06z Sunday. Most
unstable cape across the west this afternoon on the order of
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear remains weak
between 20 and 25kt. Cape quickly fades between 03z and 06z as the
precipiation shifts into central North Dakota.

The far southern James River Valley will get clipped by a few
showers or thunderstorms through the morning, which are emanating
around an upper low in northeast Nebraska. Current local and
regional radar shows isolated showers in LaMoure and Dickey
counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main highlight is the severe thunderstorm potential Monday, mainly
over far southwest into portions of south central North Dakota.
SPC continues to advertise a slight risk in this area.

Preceding the potential severe weather will be a dry and pleasant
Sunday with highs in the 70s. A mid level transitory ridge slides
across western and central North Dakota and will keep the area dry
until 00z Monday. Instability increases Sunday night with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing on the heels of a
weak to moderate low level southerly jet in southwest and into
south central North Dakota.

Then, a potent closed upper low which is currently over western
British Columbia, advances into northeast Montana Monday
afternoon. A leading shortwave is forecast to produce showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Monday night. Model
continuity in advertising a high cape and shear environment
results in higher confidence for severe weather.

With the slow movement of the upper low into western North Dakota
Tuesday, another round of showers and thunderstorms, possibly
severe appear to gain momentum again across southern North Dakota.
The upper low finally gets pushed into the southern James River
Valley Tuesday night with drier air nudging from west to east.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday will be under a drier northwest
flow. It is possible that a couple shortwaves embedded within the
flow could create the potential for some showers, but at this
point, areal coverage for any measurable precipitation is scarce.
It looks dry with a warming trend into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

MVFR ceilings will linger into mid/late afternoon for KISN, KJMS and
KMOT. Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop in western
areas, continued development is expected in western and central
areas through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely impact each
of the TAF sites. Gusty winds, reduced visibilities, and lower VFR
ceilings are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms move through
the TAF location.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281747
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Starting to see some shower development now, but no lightning
strikes in the FA yet. There has been some lightning north of
Pembina ND in southern Manitoba and some down near Mobridge SD.
The most activity at the moment is forming along the western edge
of the Red River Valley, where NE winds are turning more straight
N. With the morning sun, some weak CAPE exists in that area, but
pretty NIL bulk shear. Stronger forcing appears to be down around
the Sioux Falls SD area. Forecast calling for SCT shower and
thunderstorm activity for the afternoon/evening, which still looks
good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenge today with be extent of rain with approaching
stacked low. Models in reasonable agreement with main features but
continue to differ on extent of rain fall.

Stacked low over S central Nebraska will propagate NNE into S Mn
by evening. As it does arcing band of rain around low will lift
north into the Fa mainly from afternoon into the evening. Current
boundary(northern extent of inverted trough from southern low)
through the valley is expected to drift slightly west today as
more persistent NE surface flow develops. As broad scale lift
from low approaches could see more persistent pcpn along boundary.
Relatively low convective temperatures and moist layer will result
in quite a bit of cloud cover today holding temperatures down. As
a result convective parameters weak with at best 500 j/kg cape and
only slightly negative lifted index and weak shear. So at this
point not expecting a significant amount of rain fall. Also
ridging into the central Dakotas will limit pcpn potential over
the far western fa.

As upper low continues to lift east tonight pcpn should be ending
from W-E overnight. Dewpoints remain rather consistent so low
temperatures should not be too much different that what we have
been seeing.

Mid level flow will transition into a more zonal pattern on
Sunday. Column eventually dries during the day however with
convective temperatures in the mid 60s and shallow moist layer
will initially start with cloud cover and gradually thinning
clouds during mid/late afternoon. Temperatures should still be
able to recover into the 70s.

Minimum temperatures Sunday night will be a bit cooler with
clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Memorial Day looks should start out clear with advancing clouds
during the afternoon. Temperatures should be able to rise into the
upper 70s most areas with warmer column and solar.

Next upper low will propagate into the region Monday night into
later periods. This will bring increasing chances for pcpn to the
area.

Tuesday to Friday night...Attention will be on 500mb short wave
moving into the FA from the west on Tuesday. Timing and track will
appear to be in better agreement...leading to higher confidence
among model solns. Clouds and PCPN chances increase during the day
Tuesday from west to east with some modest instability working into
the southeastern areas of the FA. System wraps up on Wednesday with
clouds and showers exiting to the east along with north
winds...making the first day of June rather cool with highs in the
60s. Thursday and Friday temps return to the 70s as increasing
heights and NW 500mb flow bring drier weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Cigs remain ifr kdvl with mvfr/vfr to the east but all locations
will eventually reach mvfr as activity rolls northward this aftn
into the eve. Iso to sct nature of convection warrants vcsh
mention that can eventually be modified to include ts as needed.
Nne light winds will transition to nw overnight or sun morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...WJB




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