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000
FXUS63 KFGF 221850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS BARNES COUNTY AND WILL EXTEND THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 22Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL INCREASE BY 22Z...THUS MIXING THE
LOWER LEVELS AND IMPROVING VSBY (JUST LIKE WHAT OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF THIS LOCATION).

MOST ROADWAYS ARE MORE WET THAN ICY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRIZZLE
CONTINUING. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MIGHT OCCUR
(DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVELS SATURATE)...BUT EITHER
WAY (MORE SNOW ON TOP OF LITTLE ICE OR LITTLE SNOW ON TOP OF MORE
ICE) HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED AND WINTER WX ADVISORY WARRANTED.
UPDATED THE WSW TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER HIGH ATTM...AND NOT SURE HOW MUCH
COOLING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR NEAR THE SFC (AT LEAST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE VALLEY). SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE...BUT MOST AREAS UP TO AN INCH SEEMS REASONABLE (MAYBE 2-3
IF SNOW BEGINS SOONER THAN EXPECTED). WEST OF THE VALLEY...THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST FA...BUT
LIKELY WILL BE WEST OF THIS FA WITH MOSTLY RAIN...THEN SNOW THIS
EVENING WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW (VALLEY CITY SOUTHWARD).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIST AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW GENERALLY AFT 00Z.
OTHERWISE...STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT
SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO FLUCTUATE AND SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND
IS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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000
FXUS63 KBIS 221821
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH IMPACTS ON TRAVEL TODAY. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE
ANTICIPATED TROWAL INDUCED SNOW BAND STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA NOW. A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF FOSTER SOUTH
THROUGH LAMOURE AND DICKEY BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW LATER. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHEAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WEST ALSO GOOD FOR THIS UPDATE. DID ADD GRANT COUNTY
WHICH HAS BEEN RECEIVING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND MAY GET
GRAZED WITH THE WRAP AROUND SNOW TONIGHT.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE WSW.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING.

DEFORMATION ZONE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTRIBUTING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS EXPECTED. REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AXIS OF DILATATION WELL...STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE THERE.

MODELS YESTERDAY ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE UNSATURATED ATMOSPHERE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING AND CONTINUES THERE.
MY COUNTIES BORDERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. WE MADE A FEW CALLS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THOSE REPORTS AND IN COLLABORATION
WITH WFO GRAND FORKS OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ENDED AT 00Z AS MODELS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
WELL SATURATED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z WITH VIS STILL 1/4
MILE OR LESS MANY LOCATIONS. WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE RE EXTENDED...OR PORTIONS OF IT.

NEXT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS A TROWAL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WRAPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND WILL MAKE THAT
DECISION BEFORE 3PM CST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY...SNOW WEST...AND
DEVELOPING SNOW SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KISN-KDIK WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING
SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST SPREADING EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040>044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221610
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ATTEMPTING TO PORTRAY THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DIFFICULT. THE
MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WITH
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN (WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING).

THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ALOFT...AND ANTICIPATE THE DRIZZLY TYPE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE 700MB-
500MB RH (DRY LAYER) ALIGNS WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY (WHERE
TEMPS <-12C). THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SATURATION ALOFT TO
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...UP THROUGH A LINE FROM
AROUND COOPERSTOWN TO BEMIDJI. THE NORTHERN FA MAY NEVER SATURATE
ALOFT...BUT SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IT WILL BY 12Z TUE AND WILL
GO WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW. IN THE FORECAST...WENT WITH
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE DRY LAYER
ALOFT...AND INTRODUCED SNOW/RAIN WHERE SATURATION ALOFT SHOULD
OCCUR. OVERALL...DID LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS).

EARLIER ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THIS EASTWARD IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SFC
TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 19Z...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AREA (WHICH REMAINS IN A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP) FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221610
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ATTEMPTING TO PORTRAY THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DIFFICULT. THE
MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN FA...WITH
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN (WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING).

THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY ALOFT...AND ANTICIPATE THE DRIZZLY TYPE
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE 700MB-
500MB RH (DRY LAYER) ALIGNS WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY (WHERE
TEMPS <-12C). THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SATURATION ALOFT TO
OCCUR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...UP THROUGH A LINE FROM
AROUND COOPERSTOWN TO BEMIDJI. THE NORTHERN FA MAY NEVER SATURATE
ALOFT...BUT SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST IT WILL BY 12Z TUE AND WILL
GO WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW. IN THE FORECAST...WENT WITH
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THE DRY LAYER
ALOFT...AND INTRODUCED SNOW/RAIN WHERE SATURATION ALOFT SHOULD
OCCUR. OVERALL...DID LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS).

EARLIER ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAINLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WITH DRIZZLY TYPE WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THIS EASTWARD IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT SFC
TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.

EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 19Z...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AREA (WHICH REMAINS IN A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP) FOR
POSSIBLE EXPANSION INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING.

DEFORMATION ZONE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTRIBUTING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS EXPECTED. REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AXIS OF DILATATION WELL...STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE THERE.

MODELS YESTERDAY ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE UNSATURATED ATMOSPHERE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING AND CONTINUES THERE.
MY COUNTIES BORDERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. WE MADE A FEW CALLS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THOSE REPORTS AND IN COLLABORATION
WITH WFO GRAND FORKS OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ENDED AT 00Z AS MODELS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
WELL SATURATED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z WITH VIS STILL 1/4
MILE OR LESS MANY LOCATIONS. WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE RE EXTENDED...OR PORTIONS OF IT.

NEXT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS A TROWAL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WRAPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND WILL MAKE THAT
DECISION BEFORE 3PM CST TODAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KISN-KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND VSBYS
LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING.

DEFORMATION ZONE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTRIBUTING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS EXPECTED. REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AXIS OF DILATATION WELL...STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE THERE.

MODELS YESTERDAY ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE UNSATURATED ATMOSPHERE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING AND CONTINUES THERE.
MY COUNTIES BORDERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. WE MADE A FEW CALLS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THOSE REPORTS AND IN COLLABORATION
WITH WFO GRAND FORKS OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ENDED AT 00Z AS MODELS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
WELL SATURATED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z WITH VIS STILL 1/4
MILE OR LESS MANY LOCATIONS. WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE RE EXTENDED...OR PORTIONS OF IT.

NEXT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS A TROWAL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WRAPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND WILL MAKE THAT
DECISION BEFORE 3PM CST TODAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KISN-KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND VSBYS
LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING.

DEFORMATION ZONE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTRIBUTING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS EXPECTED. REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AXIS OF DILATATION WELL...STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE THERE.

MODELS YESTERDAY ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE UNSATURATED ATMOSPHERE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING AND CONTINUES THERE.
MY COUNTIES BORDERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. WE MADE A FEW CALLS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THOSE REPORTS AND IN COLLABORATION
WITH WFO GRAND FORKS OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ENDED AT 00Z AS MODELS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
WELL SATURATED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z WITH VIS STILL 1/4
MILE OR LESS MANY LOCATIONS. WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE RE EXTENDED...OR PORTIONS OF IT.

NEXT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS A TROWAL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WRAPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND WILL MAKE THAT
DECISION BEFORE 3PM CST TODAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KISN-KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND VSBYS
LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 221605
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING.

DEFORMATION ZONE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTRIBUTING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS EXPECTED. REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AXIS OF DILATATION WELL...STRETCHED
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BACK NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE THERE.

MODELS YESTERDAY ACCURATELY PREDICTED THE UNSATURATED ATMOSPHERE
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ONGOING AND CONTINUES THERE.
MY COUNTIES BORDERING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ARE ON THE EDGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATE AIR ALOFT TO THE WEST. WE MADE A FEW CALLS TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AND BASED ON THOSE REPORTS AND IN COLLABORATION
WITH WFO GRAND FORKS OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. ENDED AT 00Z AS MODELS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE
WELL SATURATED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z WITH VIS STILL 1/4
MILE OR LESS MANY LOCATIONS. WILL REEVALUATE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
IN CASE IT NEEDS TO BE RE EXTENDED...OR PORTIONS OF IT.

NEXT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER MY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AS A TROWAL BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND WRAPS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AND WILL MAKE THAT
DECISION BEFORE 3PM CST TODAY.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KISN-KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND VSBYS
LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-
013-023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
845 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. GETTING
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DRIZZLE...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
SOME SIDEWALKS AND ROADS (ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ROADS) ARE ICY. INCOMING
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FORCING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A DRY LAYER ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
WHEN/IF THE SFC TEMPERATURE WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. MOST GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION MAY BE STRONGER THAN
WHAT MODELS INDICATE. MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION IS THAT IF IT DOES GET
ABOVE FREEZING...IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BACK BELOW FREEZING
THIS EVENING. NOT SURE WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL DELAY SNOW MENTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRIZZLY THROUGH
TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
845 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. GETTING
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DRIZZLE...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
SOME SIDEWALKS AND ROADS (ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ROADS) ARE ICY. INCOMING
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FORCING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A DRY LAYER ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
WHEN/IF THE SFC TEMPERATURE WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING. MOST GUIDANCE
SAYS NO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION MAY BE STRONGER THAN
WHAT MODELS INDICATE. MOST LOGICAL SOLUTION IS THAT IF IT DOES GET
ABOVE FREEZING...IT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND BACK BELOW FREEZING
THIS EVENING. NOT SURE WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT WILL DELAY SNOW MENTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRIZZLY THROUGH
TODAY...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-054.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KFGF 221305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







000
FXUS63 KFGF 221305
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM BARNES DOWN
THROUGH SARGENT COUNTIES AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE VSBYS WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING. IN
AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING...THE WET ROAD
SURFACES WITH THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MAKING FOR ICY
ROADS. REPORTS FROM VALLEY CITY AND ALSO PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A GLAZE OF ICE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS UNDER IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VSBY...WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ038-049-
     052.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221254
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS. ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE FOG IS NOT DENSE...BUT...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ADDED DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES AS THE 06 UTC
NAM/GFS...00 UTC GEM AND 10-11 UTC RAP RUNS ALL HIGHLIGHT THIS
AREA FOR THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TODAY INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW. MVFR/IFR IN SNOW WEST
SPREADING EAST.  WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 221013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KBIS 221013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
413 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL INCLUDE FOG AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO DEVELOPING SNOW IN THE WEST
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING SNOW.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA -
OVER WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 500 FEET AND FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES FROM 1/2 MILE TO 5 MILES. AT UPPER LEVELS A BROAD
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS STATES. WATER
VAPOR SAT LOOP INDICATES A SMALL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INDICATIVE OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE AND A MINOR UPPER LOW. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS
INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE IN LIGHT RETURNS FROM NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. DICKINSON REPORTED "UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION" THIS PAST
HOUR...WHICH COULD BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INDUCE THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY. THUS THE MAIN ENERGY...UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LIFT...AND BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ND/SD
BORDER. SINCE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS MUCH SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

EXPECT DEVELOPING SNOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 INCH IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT WILLISTON. ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 2 1/2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WATFORD CITY TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...IN EFFECT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY GOING BECAUSE OF THE BLOWING SNOW
HAZARD REDUCING VISIBILITIES...DESPITE THE LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. WILL ALSO KEEP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RUNNING FOR THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
SNOW FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DIMINISHING SNOW ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY FILLS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAVEL ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER...FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND IN ISENTROPIC
LIFT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES
TREND BELOW NORMAL A AS ABROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ENVELOPS THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KFGF 220946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG AT TIMES AT TAF SITES
WITH VSBYS 3-6SM. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KTS TURNING MORE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTN. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIP
BUT DOES APPEAR IF ANY FALLS AT GFK/TVF/BJI/FAR IT WILL BE RAIN
MONDAY OR AT WORST RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IT WILL BE LIGHT. BEST CHC OF

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220946
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOCUSES ON THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP EVENT
EARLY THIS WEEK.

SFC LOW OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO S IOWA
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS EVENT POORLY...SO CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM/LESSER IMPACTS.

THE REGION REMAINS SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME PATCHES
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE
SLOWLY RISEN OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S.

EARLY THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH OVER SD/NE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OVER THE AREA AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. DID CONTINUE HIGH POPS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE
LOW LEVELS. POP TRENDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DURING THE
DAY...PENDING HOW ORGANIZED PRECIP BECOMES. PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 0C UP TO ABOVE 900 MB...MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECEAST...BUT WITH SFC TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...MAY BE
CONTENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE VALLEY.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 0.50 INCHES.

TONIGHT THERE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/DEFORMATION THAT MODELS FOCUS ACROSS SE ND. WITH CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP OFF MUCH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIP TYPE WILL STILL BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW HAVE TRENDED FROM RA/SN TO LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH LOW-LEVELS
ALREADY SATURATED...AND ONLY SLOW COOLING OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE...THIS TRANSITION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EVERYTHING
CONSIDERED...DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY PRECIP RATES...BUT LOCATIONS
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP BANDS WHERE MORE SNOW DOES OCCUR
COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERALL...IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS FOR THE REGION...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON TUESDAY WITH WHAT MODEST 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION THERE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL ND...BEHIND THE
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THAT SAID...WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER TUES NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER AIR FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MAY BRUSH CANADIAN BORDER AREAS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER WED/WED
NIGHT...BUT VERY MINOR.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THU NIGHT-FRI.  PREFER THE
FARTHER SOUTH SOLN OF EMCWF/GEM VS NRN SOLN OF GFS DUE TO STRONG JET
LIKELY TO HELP DIG THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
SHOW...JUST LIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SLIGHT POPS THOUGH...MAINLY SOTUEHRN HALF OF FCST AREA.  AFTER THIS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL LATE
DECEMBER VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG AT TIMES AT TAF SITES
WITH VSBYS 3-6SM. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KTS TURNING MORE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTN. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIP
BUT DOES APPEAR IF ANY FALLS AT GFK/TVF/BJI/FAR IT WILL BE RAIN
MONDAY OR AT WORST RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IT WILL BE LIGHT. BEST CHC OF

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE








000
FXUS63 KBIS 220646
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY AREA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAD PULLED STRATUS AND FOG WESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS HAD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
EXPECT COLD AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN GRADUALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MID
30S IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME...BUT REPORTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING INDICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. GLASGOW MONTANA
BEGAN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 05Z OR 11 PM CST. THUS THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS
TIMING...SUCH THAT BY 3-4AM CST OR 2-3 AM MST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
FALLING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AROUND BEACH OR BOWMAN/HETTINGER.
REGARDING THE SPARSE COVERAGE...LATEST DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS INDICATED
THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON THE BOWMAN RADAR FROM BAKER MT TO
HETTINGER. THINKING THAT WITH TIME THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THUS PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTHWEST...CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THEN THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 4-5 AM CST WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220646
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY AREA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAD PULLED STRATUS AND FOG WESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS HAD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
EXPECT COLD AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN GRADUALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MID
30S IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME...BUT REPORTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING INDICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. GLASGOW MONTANA
BEGAN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 05Z OR 11 PM CST. THUS THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS
TIMING...SUCH THAT BY 3-4AM CST OR 2-3 AM MST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
FALLING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AROUND BEACH OR BOWMAN/HETTINGER.
REGARDING THE SPARSE COVERAGE...LATEST DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS INDICATED
THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON THE BOWMAN RADAR FROM BAKER MT TO
HETTINGER. THINKING THAT WITH TIME THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THUS PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTHWEST...CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THEN THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 4-5 AM CST WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220646
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY AREA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAD PULLED STRATUS AND FOG WESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS HAD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
EXPECT COLD AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN GRADUALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MID
30S IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME...BUT REPORTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING INDICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. GLASGOW MONTANA
BEGAN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 05Z OR 11 PM CST. THUS THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS
TIMING...SUCH THAT BY 3-4AM CST OR 2-3 AM MST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
FALLING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AROUND BEACH OR BOWMAN/HETTINGER.
REGARDING THE SPARSE COVERAGE...LATEST DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS INDICATED
THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON THE BOWMAN RADAR FROM BAKER MT TO
HETTINGER. THINKING THAT WITH TIME THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THUS PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTHWEST...CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THEN THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 4-5 AM CST WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220646
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WILLISTON/WATFORD CITY AREA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAD PULLED STRATUS AND FOG WESTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS HAD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
EXPECT COLD AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING IN GRADUALLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH MID
30S IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME...BUT REPORTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING INDICATED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. GLASGOW MONTANA
BEGAN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 05Z OR 11 PM CST. THUS THE ONSET OF
LIGHT SNOW IS LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS
TIMING...SUCH THAT BY 3-4AM CST OR 2-3 AM MST LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
FALLING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AROUND BEACH OR BOWMAN/HETTINGER.
REGARDING THE SPARSE COVERAGE...LATEST DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS INDICATED
THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND LIGHT RETURNS SEEN ON THE BOWMAN RADAR FROM BAKER MT TO
HETTINGER. THINKING THAT WITH TIME THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THUS PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN SOUTHWEST...CHANGING TO
LIGHT SNOW. NORTHWEST SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE CHANGING QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW. FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST...THEN THE FREEZING RAIN
THREAT WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 4-5 AM CST WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE ALL SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST
WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220606
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1206 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS IN PLACE BUT TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. ONLY FOG OF
CONSEQUENCE IS LANGDON AREA. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH. EXPECT LITTLE
PRECIP PRIOR TO 12Z EXCEPT SOME MIST.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

IFR CIGS THRU THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG AT TIMES AT TAF SITES
WITH VSBYS 3-6SM. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 KTS TURNING MORE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTN. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY ON PRECIP
BUT DOES APPEAR IF ANY FALLS AT GFK/TVF/BJI/FAR IT WILL BE RAIN
MONDAY OR AT WORST RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IT WILL BE LIGHT. BEST CHC OF
ANY -SN WILL BE MON NIGHT.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND
VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220335
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF AND 2 MILES COVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY MINOT AFB SHOWING SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 9 PM CST. WILL DELAY THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY SOME SHOULD SHOW UP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE AT LEAST MINOT AFB IS SHOWING
SOME. STILL RAINING SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. STILL WAITING FOR COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WEST WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND
VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220112
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FCST REMAINS COMPLEX. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. UNTIL THEN
THE CONTINUED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG. THOUGH
FOG IS LESS THAN THIS TIME LAST EVENING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
CANDO-LANDGON AREAS AND LIKELY IN THE HILLS BTWN PARK RAPIDS AND
DETROIT LAKES. DID BLEND WITH WFO ABR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND
SLOW THEN DOWN FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANY PRECIP HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER 09Z IN THE SOUTH...IF THAT. TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY SO EXPECT MOST AREAS HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FARGO-
LISBON EAST TO BE 32F OR HIGHER THRU THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SO ANY ISSUES MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PD. VSBYS IN FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE OK IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH POCKETS OF UNRESTRICTED
VSBY. THOUGH AREAS OF BLO 1SM VSBY REMAIN IN DVL BASIN NORTH OF
DEVILS LAKE. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
DAYTIME AND THRU IN RAN/SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220112
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FCST REMAINS COMPLEX. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. UNTIL THEN
THE CONTINUED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG. THOUGH
FOG IS LESS THAN THIS TIME LAST EVENING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
CANDO-LANDGON AREAS AND LIKELY IN THE HILLS BTWN PARK RAPIDS AND
DETROIT LAKES. DID BLEND WITH WFO ABR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND
SLOW THEN DOWN FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANY PRECIP HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER 09Z IN THE SOUTH...IF THAT. TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY SO EXPECT MOST AREAS HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FARGO-
LISBON EAST TO BE 32F OR HIGHER THRU THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SO ANY ISSUES MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PD. VSBYS IN FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE OK IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH POCKETS OF UNRESTRICTED
VSBY. THOUGH AREAS OF BLO 1SM VSBY REMAIN IN DVL BASIN NORTH OF
DEVILS LAKE. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
DAYTIME AND THRU IN RAN/SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 220112
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FCST REMAINS COMPLEX. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. UNTIL THEN
THE CONTINUED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG. THOUGH
FOG IS LESS THAN THIS TIME LAST EVENING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
CANDO-LANDGON AREAS AND LIKELY IN THE HILLS BTWN PARK RAPIDS AND
DETROIT LAKES. DID BLEND WITH WFO ABR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND
SLOW THEN DOWN FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANY PRECIP HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER 09Z IN THE SOUTH...IF THAT. TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY SO EXPECT MOST AREAS HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FARGO-
LISBON EAST TO BE 32F OR HIGHER THRU THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SO ANY ISSUES MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PD. VSBYS IN FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE OK IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH POCKETS OF UNRESTRICTED
VSBY. THOUGH AREAS OF BLO 1SM VSBY REMAIN IN DVL BASIN NORTH OF
DEVILS LAKE. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
DAYTIME AND THRU IN RAN/SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 220112
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FCST REMAINS COMPLEX. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT ALL UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA. UNTIL THEN
THE CONTINUED POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG. THOUGH
FOG IS LESS THAN THIS TIME LAST EVENING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
CANDO-LANDGON AREAS AND LIKELY IN THE HILLS BTWN PARK RAPIDS AND
DETROIT LAKES. DID BLEND WITH WFO ABR UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND
SLOW THEN DOWN FOR LATER TONIGHT AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE
ANY PRECIP HOLDING OFF TIL AFTER 09Z IN THE SOUTH...IF THAT. TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY SO EXPECT MOST AREAS HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-FARGO-
LISBON EAST TO BE 32F OR HIGHER THRU THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SO ANY ISSUES MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PD. VSBYS IN FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE OK IN THE 3-5SM RANGE WITH POCKETS OF UNRESTRICTED
VSBY. THOUGH AREAS OF BLO 1SM VSBY REMAIN IN DVL BASIN NORTH OF
DEVILS LAKE. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
DAYTIME AND THRU IN RAN/SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 220045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING AS RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
THIS EVENING.LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS THERE. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS THE FORECAST IS OK SO FAR. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 06Z/11PM MST SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INVOLVE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CENTRAL AND EAST AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING WEST. THEN
AFTER 06Z/MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT WINGSPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL STATEWIDE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT
KDIK WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AND VSBYS 1 MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 212112
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIODS OF VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CIGS...AND BETWEEN 02Z-06Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF -FZRA OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z.
PREDOMINATELY VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 212112
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
PLENTIFUL...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEST THIS EVENING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AND INCREASING WIND INTO MONDAY...AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST...AND MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SOUTHEAST DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...INCOMING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL 150KT
+ UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ORIENTATED ALONG THE
SURFACE LOW`S WARM FRONT...FROM NORTH OF GLASGOW MT SOUTHEAST
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEST THANKS TO A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SFC LOW.

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS THE
HRRR...NAM...AND RAP ALL INDICATE...STRATUS AND FOG NOW OVER THE
JAMES VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR
THE JAMES VALLEY OR OTHER AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...MODELS
HINTING RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST. WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST AND EVEN REDEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS A
DEFORMATION ZONE AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE IMPACT THE AREA.
WITH CAA SNOW RATIOS WILL SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH 15-25KTS OF WIND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW...OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY STARTING 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER WESTERN IOWA MONDAY...WRAPPING A
TROWAL BACK NORTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THIS AREA
FOR NOW AND LET THE MID CREW DIGEST NEWER MODEL DATA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PLACEMENTS WITH MODELS NOT 100 PERCENT IN
AGREEMENT JUST YET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

WINTER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN
PLAINS...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TRACKING... THE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST...BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. OTHER AREAS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
THOUGH...ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIODS OF VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CIGS...AND BETWEEN 02Z-06Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER
TO ALL SNOW. PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF -FZRA OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z.
PREDOMINATELY VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 212102
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 212102
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211823
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211806
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE MID MORNING UPDATE. LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY EXPAND WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TRACK TO ENTER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. VIS AT KJMS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED SO NO HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MY EAST ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS
EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLES THE STRATUS RATHER WELL SO WAS
UTILIZED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE JAMES VALLEY.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...MODELS HINTING
RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST IN ADDITION TO
THE LIKELY/DEF POPS WEST. WE LOOK DRY ALOFT OVER MY EAST SO OPTED
TO MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE
BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND
BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA
OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. PREDOMINATELY
VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211649
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MY EAST ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS
EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLES THE STRATUS RATHER WELL SO WAS
UTILIZED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE JAMES VALLEY.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...MODELS HINTING
RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST IN ADDITION TO
THE LIKELY/DEF POPS WEST. WE LOOK DRY ALOFT OVER MY EAST SO OPTED
TO MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE
BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING NORTH
AND WEST AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND BETWEEN
01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA
OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 04Z. PREDOMINATELY VLIFR-
IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211649
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MY EAST ALONG WITH MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG. STRATUS
EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HANDLES THE STRATUS RATHER WELL SO WAS
UTILIZED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR VISIBILITIES IN CASE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE JAMES VALLEY.

POPS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SOUTHWEST AND A MIX NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE TREND OF
STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING WEST AND NORTH. ALSO...MODELS HINTING
RATHER STRONGLY AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER MY EAST IN ADDITION TO
THE LIKELY/DEF POPS WEST. WE LOOK DRY ALOFT OVER MY EAST SO OPTED
TO MENTION FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG UNTIL WE
BECOME SATURATED OVERNIGHT.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

VLIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING NORTH
AND WEST AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KBIS AND KMOT LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND BETWEEN
01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFTER 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA
OR -IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 04Z. PREDOMINATELY VLIFR-
IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE KDVL AND LANGDON
AREAS. TEMPS TOOK A NOSE DIVE IN THOSE AREAS WHILE EVERYWHERE
ELSE STAYED IN THE LOW 30S. FLOW HAS REMAINED SOUTHERLY AND THERE
IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANYTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TODAY
TOO. THE LOWEST VSBYS REMAIN ALONG THE CLEAR/CLOUDY LINE ALMOST
EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY...LANGDON TO KDVL TO KJMS AND
SOUTH FROM THERE. SEVERAL SITES ALONG THIS LINE ARE AGAIN DOWN TO
ABOUT A QUARTER MILE VSBY. THE LOWEST VSBYS SEEM ISOLATED AT THIS
POINT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WHILE LONGER TO SEE IF THEY
IMPROVE...OTHERWISE MAY CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN. THERE
ARE STILL SOME REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
WHICH SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 18Z OR SO. REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY AND FOGGY WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
932 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE KDVL AND LANGDON
AREAS. TEMPS TOOK A NOSE DIVE IN THOSE AREAS WHILE EVERYWHERE
ELSE STAYED IN THE LOW 30S. FLOW HAS REMAINED SOUTHERLY AND THERE
IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANYTHING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TODAY
TOO. THE LOWEST VSBYS REMAIN ALONG THE CLEAR/CLOUDY LINE ALMOST
EXACTLY WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY...LANGDON TO KDVL TO KJMS AND
SOUTH FROM THERE. SEVERAL SITES ALONG THIS LINE ARE AGAIN DOWN TO
ABOUT A QUARTER MILE VSBY. THE LOWEST VSBYS SEEM ISOLATED AT THIS
POINT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A WHILE LONGER TO SEE IF THEY
IMPROVE...OTHERWISE MAY CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN. THERE
ARE STILL SOME REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
WHICH SHOULD MOVE EAST BY 18Z OR SO. REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY AND FOGGY WITH FAIRLY STEADY TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE SE FA OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE SE FA OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 211259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE SE FA OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 211259
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

TRIMMED POPS ACROSS THE SE FA OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

DVL BROKE OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER STRATUS LOOKS
TO OOZING BACK TO THE WEST SO THIS SITE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY AND KEPT TAF SITE
CIGS IN IFR/OR LOW MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWER VSBYS
SPOTTY WITH MOST SITES FROM 3-5 MILES IN BR. COULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH
THE INCOMING 06 UTC GUIDANCE. THUS...BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST
TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT 6 AM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG FROM ROLLA AND
RUGBY TO THE KJMS AREA. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST AND BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN AT KISN/KDIK AFT 18Z WITH VFR CIGS...AND
BETWEEN 01Z-04Z EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AT KMOT/KBIS AFT 00Z COULD BE IN THE FORM OF -FZRA OR
-IP BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 02Z-03Z AND MVFR CIGS. KJMS
MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS AFT 08Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KBIS 211033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RUGBY AND HARVEY
AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CST. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE
REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EAST OF THIS LINE AND REMAIN VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER
NOON CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT ADDED MENTION
OF -SN AFT 03Z. MORE CERTAIN ABOUT LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE KDIK
AREA AFT 20Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV









000
FXUS63 KBIS 211033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS LINGERING FOG IN THE JAMESTOWN
AREA...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG REFORMING IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MINOT AREA.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING STRATUS AND
FOG. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US
ROCKIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REACH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING IS ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

THIS EVENING THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE WILLISTON AREA TO LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE BULK OF THE SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

SNOWFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IMPACTING EARLY CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARS TO BE THE 03 UTC
SREF...FOLLOWED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENT. THE FIRST IS WITH
A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EVENT
WITH AN SPS FOR...AND LET THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THEIR MASS FIELDS. THEREAFTER...THE STORM
SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...WITH
FAVORABLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS COMING WEEK WITH A
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RUGBY AND HARVEY
AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CST. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE
REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EAST OF THIS LINE AND REMAIN VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER
NOON CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT ADDED MENTION
OF -SN AFT 03Z. MORE CERTAIN ABOUT LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE KDIK
AREA AFT 20Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV








000
FXUS63 KFGF 210932
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING IN CNTRL ND
JUST ABOUT DVL TO JMS AND HRRR INDICATES IT LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST. 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST IN THAT AREA NOW AND TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 15Z SUN. DVL AIRPORT ONLY SPOT WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR...BUT ALSO ALONG THE CLEAR-CLOUD LINE THAT IS
WHERE THE FOG WAS THICKEST FRI NIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210932
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND UPCOMING PRE CHRISTMAS
SNOW EVENT AND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE RISING AS MODELS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND WILL USE MODEL BLEND AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW AMOUNTS.

AREA OF MAINLY -SN ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT WAVE AND ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND WILL MONITOR
FOR MORNING POPS. ONCE THIS MOVES THROUGH THIS AM REMAINDER OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CIGS. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER START MOST OF
THE FA WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 32F.

WAVE WILL DROP INTO DEEPENING TROUGH TONIGHT CLOSING OFF OVER
SD/NE REGION BY MORNING. SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH FROM SD SURFACE
LOW GRADUALLY TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. LOWERING
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FA SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE TOWARDS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.

STACKED LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SE MONDAY ALLOWING SFC INVERTED TROUGH
TO SHIFT INTO THE FA. VIA OMEGA FIELDS AND 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY AND RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
HIGHEST POPS ASSOCIATED IN ZONE OF 850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT BANDING SNOW POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GREAT.
ALSO FROM THE 290K SURFACE FULL SATURATION LOOKS SPOTTY. BASED ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECT CLOSE TO A 10:1 SNOW RATIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

LIFT LOOKS MAXIMIZED MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE THE FAVORED PERIOD
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORTUNATELY WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
SERIOUS ISSUE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME DRIFTING IN OPEN AREAS.

LOW BEGINS TO FILL TUESDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DIMINISHES DURING
THE DAY. STILL EXPECT -SN DURING DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION WEAK
AND MIXED LAYER VERY SHALLOW SO WINDS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.

CONSIDERING HEADLINES...BASED ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NATIONAL
GUIDANCE FEEL THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW. WITH WIND ALSO NOT APPEARING AS A SERIOUS ISSUE DO NOT
FEEL WATCH WARRANTED AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH FUTURE ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THEREAFTER HAVE MAINTAINED A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS...WITH PRECIP
SUPPRESSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AMPLIFYING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE ANY OF THESE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...THEY
WOULD BE RATHER MINOR. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C BY
NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING TO AN END OUR RECENT STRING OF NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING IN CNTRL ND
JUST ABOUT DVL TO JMS AND HRRR INDICATES IT LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST. 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST IN THAT AREA NOW AND TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 15Z SUN. DVL AIRPORT ONLY SPOT WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR...BUT ALSO ALONG THE CLEAR-CLOUD LINE THAT IS
WHERE THE FOG WAS THICKEST FRI NIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210626
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH CENTRAL...FROM
BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO RUGBY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT MAY BE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THIS AREA BY
AROUND 2 AM CST.

THE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED EAST OF MINOT AND JAMESTOWN AT
MIDNIGHT...BUT HRRR MODEL INDICATES LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING.
LESS CERTAIN FOR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS BISMARCK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RUGBY AND HARVEY
AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CST. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE
REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EAST OF THIS LINE AND REMAIN VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER
NOON CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT ADDED MENTION
OF -SN AFT 03Z. MORE CERTAIN ABOUT LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE KDIK
AREA AFT 20Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210626
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS THE PRECIPITATION NORTH CENTRAL...FROM
BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO RUGBY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN...BUT MAY BE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THIS AREA BY
AROUND 2 AM CST.

THE LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED EAST OF MINOT AND JAMESTOWN AT
MIDNIGHT...BUT HRRR MODEL INDICATES LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RETURNING.
LESS CERTAIN FOR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS BISMARCK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

AT MIDNIGHT CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
FROM BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE RUGBY AND HARVEY
AREAS THROUGH 2 AM CST. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE
REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP EAST OF THIS LINE AND REMAIN VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER
NOON CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT ADDED MENTION
OF -SN AFT 03Z. MORE CERTAIN ABOUT LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE KDIK
AREA AFT 20Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS SPREADING THRU NW MN NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAIN SNOW AREA NOW ROSEAU TO BAGLEY....JUST ENTERING BEMIDJI.
OTHERWISE MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS AROUND GRAND FORKS AND
WEST SOUTH OF DVL FROM ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER IN NW ND. THIS
SEEMS TO BE LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAS...GETTING THE LIGHT FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIST. SO KEPT
THAT GOING AS WELL. TEMPS RISING A BIT WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND.
KEPT THEM STEADY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING IN CNTRL ND
JUST ABOUT DVL TO JMS AND HRRR INDICATES IT LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST. 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST IN THAT AREA NOW AND TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 15Z SUN. DVL AIRPORT ONLY SPOT WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR...BUT ALSO ALONG THE CLEAR-CLOUD LINE THAT IS
WHERE THE FOG WAS THICKEST FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS SPREADING THRU NW MN NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAIN SNOW AREA NOW ROSEAU TO BAGLEY....JUST ENTERING BEMIDJI.
OTHERWISE MORE CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS AROUND GRAND FORKS AND
WEST SOUTH OF DVL FROM ACTIVITY THAT WAS EARLIER IN NW ND. THIS
SEEMS TO BE LIGHT SNOW AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SNOW
AREAS...GETTING THE LIGHT FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR MIST. SO KEPT
THAT GOING AS WELL. TEMPS RISING A BIT WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND.
KEPT THEM STEADY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL KEEP IFR CIGS IN THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CLEARING IN CNTRL ND
JUST ABOUT DVL TO JMS AND HRRR INDICATES IT LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
FURTHER EAST. 925 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST IN THAT AREA NOW AND TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY 15Z SUN. DVL AIRPORT ONLY SPOT WHERE BRIEF
CLEARING MAY OCCUR...BUT ALSO ALONG THE CLEAR-CLOUD LINE THAT IS
WHERE THE FOG WAS THICKEST FRI NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

NOT TOO UNEXPECTED AND HAS PREDICTED BY HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...BAND
OF SNOW INTENSIFED OVER PARTS OF THE NRN RRV AS IT SPREADS INTO NW
MN. UPPED POPS FOR NW MN TO ACCOUNT FOR UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE KEPT THE AREAS OF FOG AND ZL. NEXT ISSUE IS SEEING NEW
CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS NR COOPERSTOWN IN ADDITION TO STUFF
EAST OF MINOT. THAT WAS FZRA AT MINOT BUT FARTHER EAST A BIT
COOLER ALOFT SO MORE -SN. BUT WILL KEEP FZDZ AS WELL AS ENOUGH
WARM AIR ALOFT TO GIVE A MIX.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

NOT TOO UNEXPECTED AND HAS PREDICTED BY HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...BAND
OF SNOW INTENSIFED OVER PARTS OF THE NRN RRV AS IT SPREADS INTO NW
MN. UPPED POPS FOR NW MN TO ACCOUNT FOR UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE KEPT THE AREAS OF FOG AND ZL. NEXT ISSUE IS SEEING NEW
CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS NR COOPERSTOWN IN ADDITION TO STUFF
EAST OF MINOT. THAT WAS FZRA AT MINOT BUT FARTHER EAST A BIT
COOLER ALOFT SO MORE -SN. BUT WILL KEEP FZDZ AS WELL AS ENOUGH
WARM AIR ALOFT TO GIVE A MIX.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KFGF 210350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

NOT TOO UNEXPECTED AND HAS PREDICTED BY HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...BAND
OF SNOW INTENSIFED OVER PARTS OF THE NRN RRV AS IT SPREADS INTO NW
MN. UPPED POPS FOR NW MN TO ACCOUNT FOR UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE KEPT THE AREAS OF FOG AND ZL. NEXT ISSUE IS SEEING NEW
CONVECTIVE LOOKING SHOWERS NR COOPERSTOWN IN ADDITION TO STUFF
EAST OF MINOT. THAT WAS FZRA AT MINOT BUT FARTHER EAST A BIT
COOLER ALOFT SO MORE -SN. BUT WILL KEEP FZDZ AS WELL AS ENOUGH
WARM AIR ALOFT TO GIVE A MIX.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210314
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 900 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG
WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THIS LINE AND VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER 2
PM CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210314
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 900 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG
WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THIS LINE AND VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER 2
PM CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210314
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 900 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG
WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THIS LINE AND VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER 2
PM CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 210314
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING IS THE FREEZING RAIN AT NORTH CENTRAL. AS
THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO COLDER AIR IT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BASED ON MAT TEMP ALOFT FORECAST. WILL RAISE THE
CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING. SO
FAR WILL HANDLE THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 900 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
BETWEEN MINOT AND RUGBY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG
WILL AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION FROM A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. IFR
CONDITIONS EAST OF THIS LINE AND VFR WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD BRING A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT KISN AFTER 2
PM CST. LEFT VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 210119
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
719 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING EAST A BIT FASTER THAN FCST TIMING SO
UPDATED TO SPEED UP LIGHT PRECIP BAND MOVING EAST. LOOKS REAL
LIGHT AND SO FAR NOTHING AT AWOS SITES AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULD
EXPECT A BIT OF MIST OR LIGHT SNOW.   OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. FOG VSBYS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES...BUT
THINK MOST TAF SITES TO STAY IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 630 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS WILL
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE RESUMING IFR
AS THE STRATUS FILLS BACK IN. A BAND OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE THROUGH MINOT BETWEEN 01-03Z...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALITY KMOT WILL RETURN TO IFR IN FOG AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR KISN-KDIK-KBIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SNOW AT KISN. AFTER 2 PM CST. LEFT
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 630 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS WILL
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE RESUMING IFR
AS THE STRATUS FILLS BACK IN. A BAND OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE THROUGH MINOT BETWEEN 01-03Z...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALITY KMOT WILL RETURN TO IFR IN FOG AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR KISN-KDIK-KBIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SNOW AT KISN. AFTER 2 PM CST. LEFT
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 630 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS WILL
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE RESUMING IFR
AS THE STRATUS FILLS BACK IN. A BAND OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE THROUGH MINOT BETWEEN 01-03Z...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALITY KMOT WILL RETURN TO IFR IN FOG AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR KISN-KDIK-KBIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SNOW AT KISN. AFTER 2 PM CST. LEFT
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 210056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

SEEING SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION AT
TIOGA AND STANLEY WITH A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION. REFINED THIS
AREA IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL..AND RAISED POPS T
40 AS IT MOVES TOWARD MINOT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
CONTINUES MOVEMENT EAST OUT OF JAMESTOWN. WILL WATCH FOR THIS
TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

AT 630 PM CST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS WILL
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE RESUMING IFR
AS THE STRATUS FILLS BACK IN. A BAND OF SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE THROUGH MINOT BETWEEN 01-03Z...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALITY KMOT WILL RETURN TO IFR IN FOG AFTER 06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR KISN-KDIK-KBIS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SNOW AT KISN. AFTER 2 PM CST. LEFT
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 202136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KJMS WILL IMPROVE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT CENTRAL AND
EAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING KBIS-KJMS-KMOT. FARTHER WEST KISN AND
KDIK SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MIXED PRECIPITATION EAST FOR KJMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
KMOT THIS EVENING. DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ONLY TRACE LIQUID EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 202136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT EASTERN
HALF ALONG TO EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...THEN THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL S/WV IMPULSE OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. BAND OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT...WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING
INTO...WHERE WE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EITHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS EATING AWAY AT THE STRATUS
AND FOG CENTRAL INTO EAST...HIGH RES MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WHERE IT IS AT NOW OVER MY EASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN EXPANDING WEST TO THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO WORK ITS WAY EAST TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL
THERMAL UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT. ALREADY PLENTY
OF MOISTURE SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/DEF WEST. THIS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FORECAST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS/SREF AS THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
DEPICT A REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE 12 UTC NAM APPEARED TO BE TOO
SLOW...TOO MOIST AND BROUGHT THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
18 UTC NAM THAT JUST CAME IN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING A BIT QUICKER AND
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
PRECIP TRANSITION TIMES AND AMOUNTS...

RECENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AND THEREFORE PRECIP TYPES SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONE AND LIMITED TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUPY THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIP TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE...REGARDLESS OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO LACK OF ICE (NO SNOW ALOFT). AS MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST MOVES IN AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TAKES
HOLD...THE COLUMN SHOULD EVENTUALLY SATURATE AND SNOW WOULD LIKELY
FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD
AIR SHOULD TAKE HOLD AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EVENTUALLY ACCUMULATING AROUND 3
INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A LOCAL MINIMUM OF SNOWFALL AS
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PIVOT ALONG THE RED RIVER (KEEPING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY).
IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 35 MPH MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...COINCIDENT WITH A 10 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KJMS WILL IMPROVE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT CENTRAL AND
EAST TONIGHT...INCLUDING KBIS-KJMS-KMOT. FARTHER WEST KISN AND
KDIK SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THERE REMAINS A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MIXED PRECIPITATION EAST FOR KJMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
KMOT THIS EVENING. DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ONLY TRACE LIQUID EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 202110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 202110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE PCPN MOVING THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MON/TUE SNOWFALL. AS OF MID AFTERNOON
FOG STILL COVERED THE ENTIRE FA WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
STILL UP AROUND CANDO/LANGDON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT PCPN FROM BOTTINEAU DOWN THRU KJMS MOVING TO THE EAST
AT ABOUT 20KTS. KBIS DID GET A TRACE OF FZDZ AS THIS MOVED THRU
THEM AND NOW K06D IS REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THINK THIS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT FZDZ POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT
MOVES THRU TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THINK IT WILL STAY A THIN BAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THRU ND AND BE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE IS ALSO SOME
COMMA HEAD PCPN MOVING INTO FAR NW ND NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. THEREFORE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODELS SHOW THE THIN BAND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO
NW MN LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THERE. SINCE FOG STILL REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE FA WILL
MENTION THAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TOO. NOT SURE ABOUT DENSE FOG AND
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR THAT. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH WEST/SW WINDS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH
TO THAT DIRECTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE FOG/STRATUS HERE. NOT
SURE IF FOG WILL SCOUR OUT ON SUNDAY EITHER SO BUMPED UP SKY
AMOUNTS THEN TOO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BY 00Z TUE THE SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION
SETTING UP A DECENT SNOW BAND OVER EASTERN ND/EXTREME NW MN...IN
AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS MAINLY STAYS THE SET UP INTO MON NIGHT OR
EARLY TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS IS USING THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAM WITH THE OTHER MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT. LOOKING AT
RAW SNOWFALL FROM THE ECMWF/NAM WOULD BRING UP TO 6 INCHES OVER
EASTERN ND/FAR NW MN. AT THIS TIME WPC SHOWS ABOUT 4-6 INCHES FROM
EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NW MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOWIER WEATHER.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE IS PCPN AMOUNTS
AND WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN
PLACEMENT OF PCPN BAND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART PUTTING IT EAST OF
THE RED RIVER. LOOKING FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS MAX
TEMPS ALOFT RANGE FROM -4C TO -7C...AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER BY CHRISTMAS DAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. STAYED WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS NOT SEEING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE AIRMASS. OTHERWISE...VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE AND
SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN AREAS...BUT OVERALL TREND IS TO REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE IFR CATEGORY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 202001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
201 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SOUTHWEST WIND HAVE LIFTED MOST AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TRIMMED OFF A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST WIND SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MY EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 20Z AND MONITOR IN CASE ANOTHER EXTENSION BECOMES NEEDED.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT. DID HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
ZR HERE IN BISMARCK LESS THAN AN HOUR AGO...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH THE BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ORIENTATED ALONG
A NORTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

REMOVED KIDDER COUNTY FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH 20Z. SEE NO SIGNS OF VISIBILITIES IMPROVING UNTIL THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK PUSHES FARTHER EAST NOW THROUGH 20Z ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH A
BAND OF THE RADAR ECHOS STRETCHING FROM CROSBY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH GRANT COUNTY. CALLED SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND THUS FAR NO
REPORTS. STILL WORTH A MENTION SINCE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ZR/SLEET
UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.

ALREADY CLEARING OVER MY WEST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDS
REDEVELOP NORTHWEST AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PIVOTS IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. MODIFIED SKY GRIDS FOR THIS...AND ALSO
TRENDED POPS DOWN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS LEAD TO THE
SEEDING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
RESULT IS LIGHT FLURRIES AND GREATLY IMPROVED VISIBILITIES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DENSE FOG. THUS...LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE
ON TIME FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 11 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST...EXTENDED
THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC AND ADDED LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE HRRR...PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PERSISTENT FOG IN THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER TYPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE STATE TODAY WAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. WIDESPREAD FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/4 MILE TO 1 MILE EXTENDED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND ENTER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WARM FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE FOG...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID
LEVEL MIXING. THE HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. AREAS
OF FOG SHOULD PERSIST IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...IMPROVING VISIBILITIES WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT INCREASING CHANCES THIS
MORNING IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 30S. FARTHER EAST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.

TONIGHT THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE THERE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK IMPACTING CHRISTMAS TRAVEL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WHILE IN AGREEMENT ON GENERAL
FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MASS FIELDS AND TIMING RESULT IN NON-TRIVIAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...WEIGHED HEAVILY ON
THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND 03 UTC SREF WHICH RESIDE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHALLENGE IS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MELTING LAYER
ALOFT ABOVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO
EXIST. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL HAVE TO BE
SATURATED FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS ENTERS THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MELTING LAYER WILL REMAIN POST-
SATURATION DUE TO THE WET-BULB EFFECT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF
WINDOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FOR THE
WARM LAYER TO BE AROUND +2 TO +2.5 C AROUND 00-03 UTC FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND MELTED SNOW TO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLING TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. THEREAFTER...ATTENTION TURNS
TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VARIED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION FROM NORTH
DAKOTA ON THE NAM TO IOWA ON THE GFS...WITH THE SREF AND ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. THUS...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA
MONDAY ON ALL SOLUTIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THESE BANDS IS RATHER HIGH UNTIL THE MASS
FIELDS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AT KJMS. KMOT HAS IMPROVED
FROM IFR TO NOW VFR. FARTHER WEST KBIS-KISN AND KDIK SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ERODE EAST AS AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM BRINGS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW. KJMS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL
AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MIXED PRECIPITATION AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ONLY TRACE LIQUID EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 202001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
201 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SOUTHWEST WIND HAVE LIFTED MOST AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

TRIMMED OFF A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST WIND SCOURS
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MY EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 20Z AND MONITOR IN CASE ANOTHER EXTENSION BECOMES NEEDED.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT. DID HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
ZR HERE IN BISMARCK LESS THAN AN HOUR AGO...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH THE BAND OF RADAR RETURNS ORIENTATED ALONG
A NORTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

REMOVED KIDDER COUNTY FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
THROUGH 20Z. SEE NO SIGNS OF VISIBILITIES IMPROVING UNTIL THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK PUSHES FARTHER EAST NOW THROUGH 20Z ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNSURE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND WITH A
BAND OF THE RADAR ECHOS STRETCHING FROM CROSBY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH GRANT COUNTY. CALLED SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND THUS FAR NO
REPORTS. STILL WORTH A MENTION SINCE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE ZR/SLEET
UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.

ALREADY CLEARING OVER MY WEST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDS
REDEVELOP NORTHWEST AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PIVOTS IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. MODIFIED SKY GRIDS FOR THIS...AND ALSO
TRENDED POPS DOWN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS LEAD TO THE
SEEDING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
RESULT IS LIGHT FLURRIES AND GREATLY IMPROVED VISIBILITIES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DENSE FOG. THUS...LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE
ON TIME FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...GIVEN
OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE 11 UTC HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST...EXTENDED
THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH 16 UTC AND ADDED LAMOURE AND
DICKEY COUNTIES. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE HRRR...PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE PERSISTENT FOG IN THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL TODAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WEATHER TYPE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE STATE TODAY WAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. WIDESPREAD FOG
WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/4 MILE TO 1 MILE EXTENDED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND ENTER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WARM FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE FOG...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE WITH SUFFICIENT LOW TO MID
LEVEL MIXING. THE HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. AREAS
OF FOG SHOULD PERSIST IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
AFTERNOON...IMPROVING VISIBILITIES WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT INCREASING CHANCES THIS
MORNING IN THE WEST...EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 30S. FARTHER EAST FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.

TONIGHT THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND EASTWARD. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
THE MAIN WEATHER TYPE THERE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK IMPACTING CHRISTMAS TRAVEL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...WHILE IN AGREEMENT ON GENERAL
FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE MASS FIELDS AND TIMING RESULT IN NON-TRIVIAL IMPACTS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...WEIGHED HEAVILY ON
THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND 03 UTC SREF WHICH RESIDE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR SUNDAY...A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHALLENGE IS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MELTING LAYER
ALOFT ABOVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO
EXIST. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL HAVE TO BE
SATURATED FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS ENTERS THE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE MELTING LAYER WILL REMAIN POST-
SATURATION DUE TO THE WET-BULB EFFECT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF
WINDOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FOR THE
WARM LAYER TO BE AROUND +2 TO +2.5 C AROUND 00-03 UTC FOR A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND MELTED SNOW TO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLING TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03-06 UTC. THEREAFTER...ATTENTION TURNS
TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS SHOW A VARIED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION FROM NORTH
DAKOTA ON THE NAM TO IOWA ON THE GFS...WITH THE SREF AND ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. THUS...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA
MONDAY ON ALL SOLUTIONS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THESE BANDS IS RATHER HIGH UNTIL THE MASS
FIELDS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AT KJMS. KMOT HAS IMPROVED
FROM IFR TO NOW VFR. FARTHER WEST KBIS-KISN AND KDIK SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ERODE EAST AS AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM BRINGS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW. KJMS NOT IMPROVING UNTIL
AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MIXED PRECIPITATION AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE AND ONLY TRACE LIQUID EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH







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