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000
FXUS63 KBIS 280633
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER FOR THIS UPDATE.

COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE
WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT THROUGH UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WAS EXPANDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AT 03 UTC
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE FAR EAST
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. LATEST 02 UTC RAP SHOWS THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THIS AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT SO THINK TEMPERATURES HERE MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING GREATLY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE. IN GENERAL...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE TEENS OUT WEST...WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING THEM
CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. OVERALL A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MORE BASED ON THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR TO POTENTIALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF KISN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING AT KISN NOW AND EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO KJMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF MFVR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280633
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER FOR THIS UPDATE.

COLDEST AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE
WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...INCREASED OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT THROUGH UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WAS EXPANDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AT 03 UTC
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE FAR EAST
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. LATEST 02 UTC RAP SHOWS THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THIS AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT SO THINK TEMPERATURES HERE MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING GREATLY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE. IN GENERAL...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE TEENS OUT WEST...WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING THEM
CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. OVERALL A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MORE BASED ON THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR TO POTENTIALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF KISN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BEGINNING AT KISN NOW AND EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT INTO KJMS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF MFVR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 280549
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280549
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280549
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280549
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280333
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AT 03 UTC
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OVER THE FAR EAST
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR ZERO. LATEST 02 UTC RAP SHOWS THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVING INTO THIS AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT SO THINK TEMPERATURES HERE MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
LEVELING OFF. IN THE WEST TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING GREATLY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE. IN GENERAL...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE TEENS OUT WEST...WE SHOULD SEE SOME COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING THEM
CLOSE TO FORECAST LOWS. OVERALL A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TONIGHT. DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A LITTLE MORE BASED ON THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. NAM GUIDANCE LOOKS
WAY OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE GFS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A BIT TOO DRY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS AND
HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR CLOUDINESS UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
ARRIVES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 280330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 280330
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS (I.E. FOSSTON) ARE NEAR FORECASTED MIN
TEMPS AND WILL ADJUST THESE ISOLD AREAS COLDER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. IF ANYTHING...MIN
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN INCREASING
CIRRUS...WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 280004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. NAM GUIDANCE LOOKS
WAY OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE GFS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A BIT TOO DRY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS AND
HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR CLOUDINESS UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
ARRIVES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 280004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN VFR CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. NAM GUIDANCE LOOKS
WAY OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE GFS GUIDANCE MAY BE
A BIT TOO DRY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH INCREASING VFR CLOUDS AND
HOLD OFF ON ANY MVFR CLOUDINESS UNTIL AFTER THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
ARRIVES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 272332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 272332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12
KNOTS...GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KBIS 272122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 272122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KFGF 272058
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO
PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL THAT MUCH GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS.

ON SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DEEPER LAYERED SATURATION AND Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE IMPLYING SOME LIFT. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
MINOR QPF IN THE EAST BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ALL THOUGH...PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCH AT
MOST. TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM FRIDAY...AND COULD REACH 20 IN
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WE WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR THERMAL FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD
WARM WELL INTO THE 20S EVEN PERHAPS GETTING TO 30 IF THERE IS MORE
SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AS A 500 MB SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA.  ALSO
IN THE MIX IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE GATHERING
STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN UPPER
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA.  THE RESULT IS
FOR THIS NORTHERN SYSTEM TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH FROM REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

A SHARP COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -25C
TO -30C MOVE OVERHEAD.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION BY FRIDAY AS THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE ZONAL.  12Z GFS A BIT WARMER THAN 12Z ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 271851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 271851
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A CATEGORY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271845
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UP
A FEW DEGREES...OTHERWISE THAT IS ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.  SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO ERN ND SATURDAY
MORNING.  A BIT LOWER CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.  WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST NR 10 KTS THIS AFTN AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NR 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271609
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. AS A RESULT...ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES
EXPIRE FOR THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271555
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 271239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 271238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270938
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST MAY REBOUND EVEN FURTHER WITH A
MINIMAL SNOWPACK. A COLD WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. IT WILL SIMPLY BRING A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A POTENTIAL WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS COMMENCES THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE
TROUGH AXIS TO PROPAGATE EAST TO BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD...WITH WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WARM UP TO
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. OVERALL...LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO
SPEAK OF AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KFGF 270928
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND 25 THOUSAND FT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270928
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE ACROSS MIDWEST
TODAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD TRANSITIONAL INTO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE S-SW LATER TODAY. SOME CI MAY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD BUT
OVERALL SOLAR SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS
MOST AREAS.

WILL SEE A BIT MORE MIXING TONIGHT ADDED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
TO HOLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO MOST
AREAS.

WEAK TROUGH CROSSES FA ON SATURDAY AND MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS AROUND
HOWEVER WITH WARMER START AND LACK OF DEEP SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW MODERATION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS EAST
OF TROUGH ACROSS MN HOWEVER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BLO AVERAGE BUT
WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE DURING EXTENDED FORECAST BLOCK.
MILDER WEEKEND TEMPS WILL STILL BE EVIDENT AS PERIOD BEGINS
MONDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PINCHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MIDWEST AND LOW OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING JUST AS STRONG
WINDS IN ITS WAKE...FOR TUESDAY. PCPN SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. THE INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER MIGHTY HIGH WILL
BE FELT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND COLD...LESS IN THE WAY OF
WIND...WITH SUB 500 THICKNESSES AND -20 TO -30 850 MB TEMPS
PROVIDING WELL BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE READINGS ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND 25 THOUSAND FT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>005-
     007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE....NO CHANGES
REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270628
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE....NO CHANGES
REQUIRED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WIND CHILLS WEE FROM 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FRI. NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NE BORDER TO THE CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WERE RUNNING FROM 15 TO 28 BELOW AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 35 BELOW BY
MORNING. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND 25 THOUSAND FT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KFGF 270547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WIND CHILLS WEE FROM 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FRI. NO CHANGES AT THIS
UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NE BORDER TO THE CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WERE RUNNING FROM 15 TO 28 BELOW AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 35 BELOW BY
MORNING. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CLEAR SKY FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR FRI WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS AROUND 25 THOUSAND FT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270400
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MAN/SOUTHERN SASK
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NE BORDER TO THE CENTRAL SASK/ALTA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO WESTERN IA BY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT.

WIND CHILLS WERE RUNNING FROM 15 TO 28 BELOW AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
WITH FALLING TEMPS. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25 TO 35 BELOW BY
MORNING. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT LOW TEMP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 270337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 270101
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

TWEAKED LOWS UP IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. ALSO
WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS DON`T CHANGE MUCH
WITH CHANGES.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER 8 PM FOR MOST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY EXCLUDING THE WOODS IN THE EAST AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA AND A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM CANADA ON FRI. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPPES





000
FXUS63 KBIS 262358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 262358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 262358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 262109
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT
BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE
5-7 KT WIND IN ERN ND/RRV WHILE EASTERN FCST AREA GOES
LIGHT/VARIABLE. TONIGHT WILL SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE COLDEST 925 MB WINDS SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA. BUT ENOUGH COOLING AND WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE -25F TO -35F RANGE IN ERN ND/RRV
SO ANOTHER WC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. COORD WITH
ABR/MPX/BIS/DLH. NO ISSUANCE IN FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AS
DLH/MPX/ABR NOT ISSUING ONE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS.

A BIT WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SUNSHINE AS WARMER 850MB/925MB
AIR DROPS SOUTH. SHOULD REACH THE TEENS FOR HIGHS. NOT AS COLD FRI
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A MILDER DAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND SAT AFTN AND THEN PUSHES EAST SAT EVE.
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN 850 MB MOISTURE INTO NW MN AHD OF
TROUGH SAT MID AFTN-EVE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES EAST. ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WARRANT A LOW POP FOR -SN IN PARTS OF NW MN...MAINLY
BDE-BJI-PKD AREAS. COOLING BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
SUN AND A FAVORABLE WEST WIND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS LOWER 20S
IN MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN
AND WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLN FOR THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS TRANSITORY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER IOWA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK NW ACROSS ND INTO SRN
SASK. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
RAPIDLY...WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING BREEZY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S OUT OF CANADA BY
EARLY TUES MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG COLD AIR
PUSH WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND DROPPING
TEMPS BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261856
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1256 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NEEDED TO RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIN STRATOCU ALSO FORMED IN
SRN VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT EARLY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...QUIET AND COLD
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OVER THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN QUITE FRIGID SO WILL
KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261611
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. WIND CHILLS CLIMBING BUT STILL IN ADVISORY RANGE
IN MANY AREAS....BUT WILL BE OUT OF ALL AREAS 17Z-18Z PERIOD. WILL
DROP ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OVER THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN QUITE FRIGID SO WILL
KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
OVER THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN QUITE FRIGID SO WILL
KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 12Z PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO UPDATED NEEDED FOR THIS TIME AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW WITH NW WINDS GIVING WIND CHILL VALUES 25 TO 40
BELOW. AS A RESULT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK








000
FXUS63 KFGF 261236
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

NO UPDATED NEEDED FOR THIS TIME AS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
10 TO 20 BELOW WITH NW WINDS GIVING WIND CHILL VALUES 25 TO 40
BELOW. AS A RESULT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKC COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH LIGHT NW TO W WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 261001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KBIS 261001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 261001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...PRESSURE RISES AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A STEADY NORTHERLY WIND. COMBINED WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILLS FROM THE MID 20S BELOW TO 30S BELOW
BEING OBSERVED AT ALL SITES THIS EARLY MORNING. THUS WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ON TRACK.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CLEAR SKY AND MAINTAIN
COLD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE...LOWS SUBZERO). LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 30-35 BELOW NORTH AND EAST. THUS
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE ISSUE LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES MAINTAIN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE 06Z PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260943
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE LATEST ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK TO THE SE TODAY UNDER THE
500MB NW FLOW ALOFT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...REMAINS COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH WIND
CHILL HEADLINES SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. TODAYS -20 TO -25C 925MB
TEMPS ARE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIRMASS TO IMPACT THE FA. CLEAR
SKIES IN THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TEMP RECOVERY
DUE TO INCREASING SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY. LIGHT WEST SFC WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER SOLAR AND NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS REBOUNDING 20 DEGREES OR SO FROM MORNING
LOWS. SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE COOLEST READINGS WHERE
THE FRESHEST SNOW IS ALONG THE SHEYENNE AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEYS.

TONIGHT CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
TEENS BELOW WITH WEST SFC WINDS 5 TO 10KTS CREATING WIND CHILLS
RANGING IN HEADLINE CRITERIA.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY 7 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER...INTO THE LOW TEENS...AS
925MB TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMP FALL OFF TO BE OFFSET
BY SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FROPA
SATURDAY AFTN...CURRENTLY DRY AS SATURATION AN ISSUE IN THE LOW
LAYERS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THOUGH TIME FRAME WILL NEED TO
MONITORED FOR -SN POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF MINOR SHORTWAVES. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWITCH FLOW OVER TO WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT AGAIN. EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
AND WILL REFINE LATER. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND
TEMPS WILL BE AGAIN ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG







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