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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES FROM STANLEY TO BEULAH...BUT STANLEY OBSERVATIONS NOT
INDICATING ANY LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE. AN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND APPROACH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES REMAINS FROM AROUND TIOGA
AND STANLEY SOUTH TO AROUND BEULAH AND GLEN ULLIN. A LOOK AT
WEATHER CAMS NEAR SUNSET INDICATED MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOTHING
MORE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE
FAR WEST. LOWERED SKY COVER EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

NO OBSERVATIONS FROM KISN AND USING SURROUNDING OBS AT
CROSBY/TIOGA/STANLEY/WATFORD CITY TO ISSUE A TAF BUT WITH NO
SCHEDULED AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AT KISN.

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND PRESUMED MIX OF MVFR AND VFR AT KISN...WITH
VFR CIGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KJMS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND
ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. HAVE VCSH AT KISN BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING EASTWARD FROM MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV






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000
FXUS63 KFGF 170451
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AS A RESULT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARD...TO NEAR ZERO PERCENT MOST PLACES.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMP AND OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS APPEAR IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND WE WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LOCAL VARIATIONS AND THE
COLDEST READINGS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES
CLEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THOUGH SO THIS COULD HELP TEMPS WARM
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM THU...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY. THERMAL FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME
AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/AND
OR ACCUMULATING SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SAT MORNING OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY AND TEMPS WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ACTIVE PERIOD AS JETSTREAM...STORM TRACK TARGETS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE ACROSS ON S MANITOBA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHC OF RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES WITH LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WAA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 170238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW REFLECTIVITIES REMAINS FROM AROUND TIOGA
AND STANLEY SOUTH TO AROUND BEULAH AND GLEN ULLIN. A LOOK AT
WEATHER CAMS NEAR SUNSET INDICATED MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOTHING
MORE. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THIS AREA AND
WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO
THE FAR WEST TOWARD MORNING AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS OVER THE
FAR WEST. LOWERED SKY COVER EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CEILING AT KDIK AND MVFR-LOW VFR CEILING AT KISN THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CEILINGS IN KMOT...KBIS...AND CLEAR SKIES JUST
EAST OF HERE TO KJMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DRY EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INHIBIT MVFR CEILINGS AT
KMOT AND KBIS...AND ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO LOW VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES.
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM NEAR KISN TO JUST WEST OF
MINOT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AT THIS TIME THINK
THAT IF ANY SNOW WOULD FALL AT KISN OR KDIK...VISIBILITIES WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AERODROMES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 170225
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
ANTICIPATE LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AS A RESULT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARD...TO NEAR ZERO PERCENT MOST PLACES.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMP AND OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS APPEAR IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND WE WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LOCAL VARIATIONS AND THE
COLDEST READINGS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES
CLEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THOUGH SO THIS COULD HELP TEMPS WARM
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM THU...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY. THERMAL FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME
AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/AND
OR ACCUMULATING SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SAT MORNING OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY AND TEMPS WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ACTIVE PERIOD AS JETSTREAM...STORM TRACK TARGETS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE ACROSS ON S MANITOBA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHC OF RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES WITH LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WAA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB







000
FXUS63 KFGF 162336
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND WE WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LOCAL VARIATIONS AND THE
COLDEST READINGS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES
CLEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THOUGH SO THIS COULD HELP TEMPS WARM
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM THU...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY. THERMAL FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME
AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/AND
OR ACCUMULATING SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SAT MORNING OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY AND TEMPS WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ACTIVE PERIOD AS JETSTREAM...STORM TRACK TARGETS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE ACROSS ON S MANITOBA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHC OF RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES WITH LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WAA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...TG
HYDROLOGY...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 162250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS/WEATHER. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW REMAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE BAND SLIDING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FROM ROLLA DOWN TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. BAND HAS
WEAKENED IN INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SO INTERPOLATED AN
AREA OF FLURRIES SOUTHWEST...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS ARE INDICATING
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE...LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KISN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CEILINGS IN KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KMOT AND KBIS...AND ESPECIALLY KJMS TONIGHT. MVFR TO
LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM NEAR KISN TO JUST
WEST OF MINOT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST...AND COULD
MOVE INTO KISN AND KDIK THIS EVENING...THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVER THESE AERODROMES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 162025
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
AND POSSIBLY SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. WET ROADS COULD FREEZE QUICKLY
TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST...MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...EXPECT REBOUNDING
TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PROPAGATES ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY...THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF CLOSE OFF A POTENT LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNOW. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...PREICPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE COMING DAYS. IN LIGHT OF MOIST
SOILS...HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...AYD










000
FXUS63 KFGF 162013
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND WE WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT WINTER WX
ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THERE COULD BE LOCAL VARIATIONS AND THE
COLDEST READINGS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES
CLEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE THOUGH SO THIS COULD HELP TEMPS WARM
A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM THU...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW NORTH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE VALLEY. THERMAL FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SINCE SOME
AREAS IN THE NORTH COULD BE BORDERLINE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/AND
OR ACCUMULATING SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE SAT MORNING OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY AND TEMPS WARMING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND
DRY...AND WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ACTIVE PERIOD AS JETSTREAM...STORM TRACK TARGETS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE ACROSS ON S MANITOBA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
A CHC OF RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO NW MN. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTENSIFIES WITH LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WAA SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
HELPING SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
HAS LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS DOWN INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM






000
FXUS63 KFGF 161743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPS ARE WARMING A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WITH
SUNSHINE...SO WILL INCREASE TEMPS SOME HERE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR THIS AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WHERE CIGS
HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITH SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
EASTERLY AIR TURNING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND NO STRATUS DECK TO
THE NORTH TO ADVECT IN...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. GUSTY
ENE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK HAVE
VIRTUALLY ENDED RUNOFF.  WE ARE DOWN TO SIX FORECAST POINTS AT OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  THESE INCLUDE THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AS WELL AS ALVARADO ON THE SNAKE RIVER AND THE
HALLOCK ON THE TWO RIVERS.  THE ONLY LOCATIONS STILL RISING ARE
DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.

COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODERATION IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.  TODAY`S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO ONE
THIRD INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION...AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DK
HYDROLOGY...WJB







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161515
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1015 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPDATE MAINLY FOR POP/WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE DROPPED
POPS DOWN INTO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AT KBIS/KJMS.
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 161506
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH A BAND OF SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE HEAVIEST BAND SHOULD BE IN THIS AREA.
THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD GET A BAND OF 2-5 INCHES THOUGH...MAINLY
CONFINED TO GRANT/SOUTHEAST OTTERTAIL AND SOUTHERN WADENA
COUNTIES. SO THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY HERE IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 161200
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED POPS AS THE BAND THAT DROPPED ABOUT AN INCH IN FARGO
BEGINS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE BAND BROUGHT 2-3 INCHES IN PARTS OF
WADENA AND OTTERTAIL COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
DEFORMATION BAND CLOSELY. STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT IF THERE IS A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH THERE
COULD BE MORE THAN SIX INCHES IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
GIVEN THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

KFAR VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES VIS WITH THE SNOW
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
VIS GOING BACK TO MVFR LEVELS AS SNOW DISSIPATES. KEPT SNOW
MENTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND KEPT THEM VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. KDVL...KFAR AND KBJI WILL BE MVFR OR EVEN LOWER AT
TIMES WITH SNOW BANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND CIGS WILL COME UP BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 161143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN TO
CONTINUE FROM KMOT THROUGH KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. OTHER SITES
WILL BE MVFR FOR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER
21Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 160917
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
417 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN KMOT IN CIGS AND
VSBYS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR OTHER TAF SITES TO BECOME MVFR/IFR
IN CIGS...WITH KJMS TO SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AS WELL. GUSTY EAST WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 15Z...AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
AROUND/AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JV





000
FXUS63 KFGF 160831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SNOW CHANCES TODAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE PERIOD.

SNOW HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND DOWN TOWARDS FARGO AND FERGUS FALLS. THINK
THE RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE BAND...AND THINK THIS
WILL STICK AROUND AND DROP AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS FURTHER SOUTH.
FOR LATER TODAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PLAINS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD TO THE IA/MN BORDER...WITH OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
THE GEM KEEPS MOST OF THE SNOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT THE
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL BRING SOME 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS TO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STATUS QUO
AND KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE ADVISORY GOING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS TO ADD IN A BRIEF PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW MENTION FOR WHEN PRECIP IS FALLING IN OUR
SOUTHEAST...AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG TODAY AT
TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TAKES OFF INTO WI AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL STAY
UP AND KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...WITH LOWS STAYING
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AIR
MASS WILL STILL BE PRETTY COLD HOWEVER...SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SASK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE A WEAK REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING BY
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THINK THAT ANYTHING IT PRODUCES WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. MODELS
DIVERGE ON BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP THROUGH IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE GEM HAVE PRECIP MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE MUCH SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A BIT
OF A BLEND...BUT GIVEN THE WAY SATURATION HAS TAKEN ITS
TIME...LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE SLOWER SOLUTION. JUST KEPT SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN THE EAST WITH NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE WEST FOR NOW.


SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. ON SATURDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WARM AIR ADVECTION-INDUCED
PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT PROPENSITY FOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING. SUNDAY/MONDAY LOOK DRY...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TURNING THE FLOW ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT...
MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER ONE
MORE RELATIVELY COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES)...MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EAST ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN SD BY 12Z WED
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 15 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS BEST SHOT OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN
FARGO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TIL ABOUT LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE KEPT VFR CIGS BUT COULD BE ISOLD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DVL
BASIN INTO GFK-BJI AREAS. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE
LEADS TO ME TO KEEP IT MOSTLY LOW END VFR THRU WED AFTN BEFORE
CLEARING MOVES SOUTH.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS...COOL DAYTIME HIGHS AND DIMINISHING SNOW PACK ARE
PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. ISSUED LAST FORECASTS FOR
SABIN...DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS WITH HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY
SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. THE
SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO HAS POKED ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY A
TENTH OF A FOOT OVER THE PAST 4 TO 5 HOURS...BUT HAS BEGUN TO
STABILIZE AND FULLY EXPECT IT TO BEGIN FALLING SOON GIVEN UPSTREAM
FLOW NEAR WARREN.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY/S STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...ROGERS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160600
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN...TO NEAR
GLASGOW MONTANA...TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
OVER THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING BORDER. BOWMAN
RADAR SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES -
SHOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA.

MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CROSBY/STANLEY TO
MINOT TO JUST NORTH OF JAMESTOWN. MINOT HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES
- BUT AUTOMATED OBS REPORTING ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION. WEB
CAMS AT MINOT AIR FORCE BASE INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION IS CONSISTENT WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATING THIS BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...REACHING INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA. HAVE RAISED PRECIP CHANCES IN
THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECTING ONLY AN
INCH OR SO OF SNOW THERE WITH PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TO NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS.

WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
SATURATED BY THEN. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN KMOT IN CIGS AND
VSYBS IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR OTHER TAF SITES TO BECOME MVFR/IFR
IN CIGS...WITH KJMS TO SEE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AS WELL. GUSTY EAST WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 15Z...AND FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
AROUND/AFT 18Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 160455
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREA OF PRECIP ON RADAR TRYING ITS BEST TO SATURATE IN THE MINOT
TO CARRINGTON TO JAMESTOWN AREA AND AND OBS INDICATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND...MORE SO IN THE MINOT AREA. AS UPPER
WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH RADAR SHOWING INCREASING ECHOES IN WRN
SD EXPECT SNOW AREA TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN.
SO KEPT IDEA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT IN FAR SE ND/WCNTRL MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO ERN SD BY 12Z WED
AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL 15 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS BEST SHOT OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS REMAIN IN
FARGO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TIL ABOUT LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE KEPT VFR CIGS BUT COULD BE ISOLD MVFR CIGS AT TIMES DVL
BASIN INTO GFK-BJI AREAS. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND LOW CONFIDENCE
LEADS TO ME TO KEEP IT MOSTLY LOW END VFR THRU WED AFTN BEFORE
CLEARING MOVES SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON
ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
ONLY SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 160242
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AND
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TO NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS.

WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
SATURATED BY THEN. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 160018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COORDINATED WITH WFO BIS AND IDEA WAS TO GREATLY BACK OFF ON POPS
THIS EVENING AS VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH RETURN FLOW OUT OF DRY HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL DRY UP MOST IF NOT ALL THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE BAND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN SASK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND THRU 06Z. DEW PTS WILL RISE
BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN THE RRV THIS EVE BEFORE REACHING
20S OVERNIGHT. MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES INTO CNTRL-ERN SD BY 12Z WED. MOST OF THE FORCING FOR LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS CONCENTRATES IN FAR NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN AT 12Z
SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA PER ADVISORY AREA. 12Z GEM
WAS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH MAIN SNOW MORE SO WATERTOWN-WILMAR-ST
CLOUD LINE VERSUS MORE ALONG A SISSETON-ELBOW LAKE-BRAINERD AXIS.
RESULT OF DRIER AIR WILL GO DRY IN ERN ND THRU 06Z AND THEN KEEP
HIGHER POPS AFTER 06Z IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN. 23Z RAP FOCUSES
MOST SNOWFALL JUST A BIT SOUTH OF WHERE IT DID EARLIER MORE SO
MILBANK SD INTO MORRIS MN TO LITTLE FALLS AGAIN SKIRTING FAR SOUTH
WITH ANY SIG SNOWFALL AND JUST VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TOWARD FARGO
AND LITTLE TO NOTHING NORTH OF FARGO. TRIMMED POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD IN THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS INCREASE AS LOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH IN MANITOBA-NW ONTARIO TO HAVE A STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED 15
TO 22 KTS AND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS IN PLACES. PER MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY VFR CIGS THRU WED IN DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI
AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN FARGO LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED MIDDAY. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PSBL DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI AS
WELL BUT FEEL IT SHOULD STAY MORE ON THE LOW END VFR RANGE. DID
HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO BJI 15Z WED BUT THAT IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MORE DATA COMES IN.

&&

HYDRO...THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A
DAMPER ON ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS
FOR SABIN DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENTS OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
ONLY SITES STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER.
STILL ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...VG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 152356
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING A SWATH OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM MINOT TO HARVEY...JAMESTOWN TO LISBON. NONE OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE
TOO DRY (TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 10-20 DEGREES). THINK THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DUE TO BOTH WET BULBING EFFECTS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...STILL THINK SATURATION IS A FEW HOURS OFF FROM
NOW. AS A RESULT...UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD POP FORECAST TO COME
MORE IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA MOVING OVER
NORTH DAKOTA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-94 AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A CATEGORY. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL MAINLY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA (KDIK) AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND INTO KBIS AND KJMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS/TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 152031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THINKING IS THE INITIAL SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL EXERT ITS
INFLUENCE...WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR
LESS. HEADLINES ARE NOT WARRANTED...HOWEVER SOME AREAS WILL HAVE A
SLICK MORNING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CLOSED 500MB LOW BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

LATEST 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT BOTH
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM FRIDAY 18 UTC THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. LATEST 12 UTC OF THE
NH-GEM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. THE 12 UTC NH-GEM SHOWS A DEEPER
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA 12
UTC SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CLOSED LOW
WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE I BELIEVE OVER TIME
THE NH-GEM WILL COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE NH-GEM FORECAST FOR NOW HAS MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN AND SWITCH TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BACK TO RAIN LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN COOLER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOW THIS DIFFERENCE PLAYS OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RECEIVES AS FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...MM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 152015
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY SNOW EVENT LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LESS QPF THROUGH THE EVENT.

FOR TONIGHT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL
OF UPPER FORCING AS MAIN WAVE JUST CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARDS
MORNING AS WAVE APPROACHES H7 LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER E
CENTRAL SD WITH FAVORED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF LOW. SO EXPECT NW-SE ORIENTED SNOW BAND TO
BECOME MORE E-W FROM EASTERN SD-WEST CENTRAL MN WITH COMMON ND
BORDER AREA ON NORTHERN FRINGE. OVERALL STILL LOOKING AT GENERAL
1-3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. MIXING AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
DROP OVERNIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/ Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTS
DUE EAST FROM E SD INTO S MN. THIS WILL PUT FAR SE FA ON NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FRINGE OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW RATIOS AND IF WE
CAN GET TO OR ABOVE MELTING WILL HAVE A BEARING ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL EAST MID AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH COLDER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM AND DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITH NEW SNOW FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER COLUMN
AND MID APRIL SOLAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN SPITE OF FRESH
SNOW.

REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EASTER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
THICKNESSES AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND 850MB WAA BEGINS
SATURDAY IN WHICH NWP INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF WAA PCPN
FROM WEST TO EAST TO CROSS THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE MORE RIDGING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR WITH SE WINDS TODAY SOME GUSTS IN E ND AND RRV THIS AFTN. WILL
SEE LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -SN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE DVL AREA AND MOVE INTO THE VALLEY WITH LOWER CIGS AND
LONGER DURATION OF -SN IMPACTING FAR MORE THAN OTHER TAF SITES.
GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT FAR INTO TOMORROW WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT OTHER
SITES.
&&

.HYDRO...THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS
OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY SITES
STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MNZ030>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK
HYDRO...VG






000
FXUS63 KBIS 151814
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
114 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MIDDAY UPDATE MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...A GENERAL RAIN/SNOW MIX...BEFORE
TURNING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME WIDE
VARIATIONS AMONG MODEL QPF FIELDS...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING STILL
FAVORS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...AMOUNTS EXPECTED DO NOT WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KBIS...WHERE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST AT KDIK
BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW...OTHERWISE SNOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK AROUND 10Z-11Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SE
TO E/NE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151737
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1237 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TRIMMED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AS LACK OF
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL OFFSET SOLAR AND HOLD TEMPERATURES
DOWN. ALSO TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE DVL BASIN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY`S UPDATES WILL BE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. AFTER
RECORD BREAKING LOWS READINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING. WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION STILL THINK CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHABLE SO NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING ANY LIGHT PCPN INTO THE FA. WILL
WAIT TIL SOME OF THE MAIN MODELS COME IN BUT MAY TRIM BACK PCPN
MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR WITH SE WINDS TODAY SOME GUSTS IN E ND AND RRV THIS AFTN. WILL
SEE LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. -SN WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT IN THE DVL AREA AND MOVE INTO THE VALLEY WITH LOWER CIGS AND
LONGER DURATION OF -SN IMPACTING FAR MORE THAN OTHER TAF SITES.
GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS AT FAR INTO TOMORROW WITH 20 TO 30 KTS AT OTHER
SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE COLD NIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. WAS ABLE TO ISSUE LAST FORECASTS FOR SABIN
DILWORTH AND GRAFTON. THE REMAINING POINTS IN HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS
OR FLOOD STATEMENTS ARE ALL AT OR NORTH OF GRAND FORKS. ONLY SITES
STILL RISING ARE DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ON THE RED RIVER. STILL
ANTICIPATE THE COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION COMING BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 151435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORNING UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND AFTERNOON POPS. HAVE EXPANDED THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL
RUNS...INCLUDING RAP/HRRR. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY`S UPDATES WILL BE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND WHEN -SN WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATER TODAY. AFTER
RECORD BREAKING LOWS READINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING. WITH INCREASED
MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION STILL THINK CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHABLE SO NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING ANY LIGHT PCPN INTO THE FA. WILL
WAIT TIL SOME OF THE MAIN MODELS COME IN BUT MAY TRIM BACK PCPN
MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY
INTRODUCED IT AT KDVL AND KFAR AS ITS EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25
KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. A CREST IS
EXPECTED AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT
PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR







000
FXUS63 KFGF 151212 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

OBSERVING RECORD COLD THIS MORNING. SO FAR...GRAND FORKS (NWS
OFFICE) HAS DROPPED TO 11 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12
DEGREES SET IN 2000 AND FARGO HAS DROPPED TO 13 DEGREES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET IN 1935. MORNING LOWS
ARE EVEN COLDER ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH 7 AM READINGS OF 1 ABOVE
AT FLAG ISLAND AND 2 ABOVE AT BEMIDJI. COULD SQUEAK OUT ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SUNSHINE BEGINS TO
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED HOURLY CURVE TO BETTER MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY
INTRODUCED IT AT KDVL AND KFAR AS ITS EASTWARD EXTENT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25
KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE MINNESOTA TRIBS...THE HALLOCK GAGE SEEMS TO BE WORKING
AGAIN. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS CRESTING IN MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...WHILE THE SNAKE RIVER AT ALVARADO REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

ON THE MAINSTEM RED...OSLO AND GRAND FORKS CONTINUE TO FALL. STAGES
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. A CREST IS
EXPECTED AT DRAYTON IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE MID/LATE WEEK...AND AT
PEMBINA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...ROGERS
HYDROLOGY...JR







000
FXUS63 KBIS 151150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED OTHER THAN
POPULATING GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST PER IR IMAGERY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AFT 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV







000
FXUS63 KFGF 150855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIP TIMING...LOCATION AND AMOUNTS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CIRRUS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CRASHING ONTO THE WASHINGTON
COASTLINE. LIGHT SFC WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 925 HPA WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WEST OF THE VALLEY...SO SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR
NORTHWEST THROUGH 00 UTC. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...700 HPA LOW ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTHEAST SD BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE AND MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL MN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 TO 700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL LOW...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER
WEAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290 K SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI...BUT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS LOOK TO PICK UP 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
LATE SEASON SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WIND
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO
WI...SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE
WHEN AND WHERE ONCE NEIGHBORING OFFICES DEAL WITH THEIR CURRENT
WINTER STORM WATCH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT SFC TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECIP WILL
FALL AS SNOW GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT WARMER NEAR SFC
LAYER MAY INITIALLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON
ROADWAYS. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAST OF THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE STORY
FOR THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...AND
LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WAY BELOW MID-
APRIL NORMALS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GEM IS AN OUTLIER AND HAS THE
SYSTEM AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE A SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND MOVING INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WITH IT. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS GOES DOWNHILL FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE GFS HAS RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND STICK WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS TO DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS OR SO DVL BASIN AND THEN RRV TUESDAY
MIDDAY-AFTN. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TUES AFTN-
EVE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO DVL BASIN
BY 06Z WED BUT DUE TO UNCERTAIN TIMING LEFT PRECIP OUT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE







000
FXUS63 KBIS 150853
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WYOMING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES
AREA...KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. MIDDLE AND
HIGH CLOUDS WERE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

TODAY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARDS NEBRASKA...THEN HEADS
EAST ACROSS IOWA TO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE...THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD
BE AT THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING...SHOULD BE
CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND OVER WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...AND HINTING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

TONIGHT THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...AND KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES THERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTHEAST TRACK...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD EXPAND FARTHER ACROSS ALL OF THE STATE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE...AND WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOW OVER THE STATE...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES FROM MINOT TO BISMARCK
AND EAST...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WEST OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGHOUT THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW. TONIGHT WINDS BECOME EASTERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 25
MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S...AND CONTINUED COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MODELS ARE IN LIMITED AGREEMENT...BUT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURS THURSDAY WITH 100KT 250MB
JET STREAK DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN ND WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN GFS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE AT 06Z SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COLDER.
PATTERN TURNS DRY AND WARMER FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES BUILDING BROAD RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND SLOWLY BRINGING IT TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S SATURDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND APPROACH 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT
SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE AT OR
APPROACH MVFR CIGS AFT 02Z. EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON OR AFTER 00Z AT FIRST IN THE KMOT VICINITY - THEN DEVELOP
QUICKLY OVER ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV









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