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000
FXUS63 KBIS 020252
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
952 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

High pressure remains situated over the central and eastern
Dakotas with weak low pressure over Montana into the far western
Dakotas. Quasi-zonal upper flow across the northern Rockies and
into the northern plains. Models are having a rough time with weak
impulses moving through the flow. Models are still hinting at qpf
developing over the northern tier zones late tonight. Can`t rule
this out but have reduced pops across the north tonight. Have
gone more with a broad brush chance pop across most of the north.
Did also keep a slight chance of a shower late this evening over
the southern James River Valley as this area of showers continues
to slowly dissipate as it head into southeast ND.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Shower and isolated thunder activity is pretty much confined to
our southeast CWA at this time. This area continues to move slowly
east and is slowly dissipating. For the most of us it looks like a
dry evening and lowered or removed pops across a good portion of
the north and west. Global models are still hinting at an area of
shower or thunderstorms activity across the north after midnight,
and possibly some isolated convection in eastern MT tracking
across the border. Mesoscale model do not really offer much help
with this so will take another look after 00 UTC models start
coming in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across western
and central ND through Saturday night and beyond, but it will not
by any means be a washout.

As of 20 UTC, A band of showers and a few weak, embedded storms is
moving across the Highway 83 corridor in central ND. The lightning
detection network has shown a decreasing trend in both in-cloud
and cloud-to-ground lightning with this activity the further east
that it propagates, which is consistent with a lack of MUCAPE to
the east of Highway 83 per the SPC mesoscale analysis and recent
RAP and HRRR simulations. Even so, water vapor imagery continues
to suggest that the mid-level shortwave trough that`s responsible
for this convection is relatively dynamically-healthy as signaled
by modest darkening in its wake centered on Lake Sakakawea at mid
afternoon. The post-wave subsidence has allowed clearing to boost
temperatures into the 80 F range over eastern MT and far western
ND, and with dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s F, MLCAPE from
500 to 800 J/kg is expected there late this afternoon and this
evening. That may incite isolated thunderstorm development and a
brief/local strong storm is not out of the question in the west,
as has been suggested by some HRRR simulations today. Meanwhile,
the forcing with the wave is likely sufficient to carry showers
eastward through the remainder of central ND through evening.

Water vapor imagery suggests there is another weak shortwave
trough embedded in broad northwest flow aloft upstream in central
MT this afternoon. The 12 UTC GFS, NAM, and ECMWF and most of the
convection-permitting model guidance suggests this wave may assist
shower development/concentration over northern ND tonight in close
proximity to some modest mid-level frontogenesis. We used a multi-
model consensus to build the PoP forecast through tonight given
relatively good model-to-model agreement and support of the wave`s
existence in observational (satellite) data this afternoon. Storm
potential will be limited by modest mid-level lapse rates 6 C/km
or less in the 700-500 MB layer overnight.

On Saturday, temperatures will warm a bit with highs forecast to
reach the lower to middle 80s F along and west of the Highway 83
corridor. That will be thanks to modest low- and mid-level warm
air advection on southerly flow resulting from lee-side pressure
falls centered on MT. There is some uncertainty with the quality
of moisture return, but most 12 UTC guidance calls for surface
dewpoints only in the 50s F over western ND. Moreover, mid-level
lapse rates will be slow to steepen, which in turn is forecast to
keep CAPE relatively modest. The 12 UTC NAM and GFS nonetheless
support MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along with 0-6-km bulk wind
differences of 30-35 kt in northwest and west central ND Saturday
evening, supporting a marginal risk of severe storms. The most
likely scenario is that a few storms will develop over MT near the
lee-side pressure trough Saturday afternoon and then move into
western (and especially northwestern) ND Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The long term forecast period will be characterized by a nearly
daily chance of thunderstorms in southwest flow aloft. Such a
pattern with low-amplitude shortwaves makes it difficult for us
to confidently pin down periods of higher and lower chances of
precipitation, so we allowed the multi-model consensus to drive
the forecast with 20 to 40 percent PoPs for much of the period.
Highs will be warmest Sunday and Independence Day Monday when
we are calling for temperatures of 80 to 90 F. A cooling trend
back toward the upper 70s and lower 80s is then being shown in
our forecast by late next week.

Trends we do see in the 12 UTC guidance are that 1) The chance
of storms may be focused over western ND Sunday afternoon and
evening in a relatively narrow axis of instability, and 2) The
chance of storms on Independence Day and Monday night could be
greatest (albeit still only near 30 percent) in the James River
valley. Both periods offer up some potential for locally strong
or severe storms, but deep-layer shear is forecast to only be
near 35 kt, suggesting any risk will not be high-end.

It does appear that deep-layer wind fields will strengthen in
the Tuesday through Friday period, which in and of itself may
suggest increasing potential of strong to severe storms during the
middle part of next week. However, there is uncertainty with where
an east-west frontal zone and axis of higher theta-E air may end
up residing. True to that point, the 12 UTC ECMWF suggests that
the deeper moisture and greatest risk of showers and storms may
stay south of western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with a
southeast surface flow and isolated thunderstorm chances through
00 UTC Sunday. Any thunderstorm could produce a brief period of
mvfr vsbys but at this time confidence and coverage is too low to
mention in any one TAF. It appears the northern sites of KISN and
KMOT would have the best chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm after midnight through mid morning Saturday. A
thunderstorm is possible again late Saturday afternoon at KISN
and KDIK but too isolated attim to mention.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 020248
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Some spotty light rain continues over a few areas south of KJMS,
but this has still been weakening as it moves slowly SE. There are
also a few upstream echoes north and northwest of Langdon. METARs
in this area show no ceilings there less than 14000ft, so suspect
the radar may just be seeing virga or mid level clouds in this
area. Models seem to have cut back a little more on pcpn chances
tonight, so also scaled back to just an isolated or scattered late
night shower...and mainly for the Devils Lake region. Only other
thing is that there is quite a bit of cloud cover over the FA, so
will raise temps a little too. These clouds are even moving into
the far eastern FA, which will help hold temps up there tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Main concerns will revolve around shower chances. 12z models in
decent agreement and will use the general idea provided by the
guidance to formulate the forecast. Radar indicates and area of
showers across central North Dakota propagating east...associated
with an upper level shortwave seen on water vapor imagery. Water
vapor imagery also indicates another upper level shortwave to the
northwest of North Dakota that will affect the region overnight
into Saturday morning. The forcing will be invading a dry airmass
as the SFC ridging only slowly propagates off to the east. The
upper waves appear relatively strong...and not sure that showers
will actually fall apart as they enter eastern North Dakota.
Plus...guidance indicates moderate mid-level frontogenesis
overnight...especially across NE ND. So...did increase PoPs where
there is the most agreeement (NE ND)...and will leave the minor
details for the next update when confidence increases concerning
the current showers across central ND. Rainfall overnight will be
light...likely under 0.25 inches.

On Saturday...Showers/isold thunder possible across the northern
FA if any waves move through the region. Otherwise...mainly dry
after the morning activity dissipates with slightly warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The main unknown through much of this time period will be
thunderstorm chances within zonal flow aloft. Despite southerly
low- level flow, moisture will be slow to advect into the region
during the weekend. Some storms may form over the high plains
later Saturday, but with weak forcing and meager instability to
the east, confidence in convection making it east into the area is
low. Some 850 mb warm advection could produce a few showers/storms
Sat Night into Sunday, so will continue to carry some low pops,
mainly across the north. Temps should return back into the 70s and
80s by Sunday.

A similar scenario is expected Sunday Night with storms firing to
the west likely weakening as instability decreases. With the
strongest warm advection signal across northern and western portions
of the area, kept some pops across these areas.

Independence Day will be quite warm, especially from the Red River
Valley westward, as the 850 mb thermal ridge axis noses into eastern
North Dakota. Global models generally indicate a surface boundary
will be draped across North Dakota extending southward from low
pressure up across Manitoba. At least a narrow axis of instability
along and ahead of the boundary and sufficient deep shear may
support a better chance for scattered storms during the
afternoon/evening, depending on capping/boundary placement.

The zonal flow pattern will continue through much of next week, with
a gradual cooling trend.  Plenty of dry hours are expected during
this period, although do you have pops mentioned in quite a few
periods given the uncertainty with timing fast-moving upper level
impulses in this sort of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Seeing some thicker cirrus moving toward the TAF sites now, but
other than that there is not much going on. Will keep a VCSH
mentioned at KDVL around midnight, but confidence is fairly low.
Wind speeds will stay light.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Godon




000
FXUS63 KBIS 012335
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Shower and isolated thunder activity is pretty much confined to
our southeast CWA at this time. This area continues to move slowly
east and is slowly dissipating. For the most of us it looks like a
dry evening and lowered or removed pops across a good portion of
the north and west. Global models are still hinting at an area of
shower or thunderstorms activity across the north after midnight,
and possibly some isolated convection in eastern MT tracking
across the border. Mesoscale model do not really offer much help
with this so will take another look after 00 UTC models start
coming in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across western
and central ND through Saturday night and beyond, but it will not
by any means be a washout.

As of 20 UTC, A band of showers and a few weak, embedded storms is
moving across the Highway 83 corridor in central ND. The lightning
detection network has shown a decreasing trend in both in-cloud
and cloud-to-ground lightning with this activity the further east
that it propagates, which is consistent with a lack of MUCAPE to
the east of Highway 83 per the SPC mesoscale analysis and recent
RAP and HRRR simulations. Even so, water vapor imagery continues
to suggest that the mid-level shortwave trough that`s responsible
for this convection is relatively dynamically-healthy as signaled
by modest darkening in its wake centered on Lake Sakakawea at mid
afternoon. The post-wave subsidence has allowed clearing to boost
temperatures into the 80 F range over eastern MT and far western
ND, and with dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s F, MLCAPE from
500 to 800 J/kg is expected there late this afternoon and this
evening. That may incite isolated thunderstorm development and a
brief/local strong storm is not out of the question in the west,
as has been suggested by some HRRR simulations today. Meanwhile,
the forcing with the wave is likely sufficient to carry showers
eastward through the remainder of central ND through evening.

Water vapor imagery suggests there is another weak shortwave
trough embedded in broad northwest flow aloft upstream in central
MT this afternoon. The 12 UTC GFS, NAM, and ECMWF and most of the
convection-permitting model guidance suggests this wave may assist
shower development/concentration over northern ND tonight in close
proximity to some modest mid-level frontogenesis. We used a multi-
model consensus to build the PoP forecast through tonight given
relatively good model-to-model agreement and support of the wave`s
existence in observational (satellite) data this afternoon. Storm
potential will be limited by modest mid-level lapse rates 6 C/km
or less in the 700-500 MB layer overnight.

On Saturday, temperatures will warm a bit with highs forecast to
reach the lower to middle 80s F along and west of the Highway 83
corridor. That will be thanks to modest low- and mid-level warm
air advection on southerly flow resulting from lee-side pressure
falls centered on MT. There is some uncertainty with the quality
of moisture return, but most 12 UTC guidance calls for surface
dewpoints only in the 50s F over western ND. Moreover, mid-level
lapse rates will be slow to steepen, which in turn is forecast to
keep CAPE relatively modest. The 12 UTC NAM and GFS nonetheless
support MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along with 0-6-km bulk wind
differences of 30-35 kt in northwest and west central ND Saturday
evening, supporting a marginal risk of severe storms. The most
likely scenario is that a few storms will develop over MT near the
lee-side pressure trough Saturday afternoon and then move into
western (and especially northwestern) ND Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The long term forecast period will be characterized by a nearly
daily chance of thunderstorms in southwest flow aloft. Such a
pattern with low-amplitude shortwaves makes it difficult for us
to confidently pin down periods of higher and lower chances of
precipitation, so we allowed the multi-model consensus to drive
the forecast with 20 to 40 percent PoPs for much of the period.
Highs will be warmest Sunday and Independence Day Monday when
we are calling for temperatures of 80 to 90 F. A cooling trend
back toward the upper 70s and lower 80s is then being shown in
our forecast by late next week.

Trends we do see in the 12 UTC guidance are that 1) The chance
of storms may be focused over western ND Sunday afternoon and
evening in a relatively narrow axis of instability, and 2) The
chance of storms on Independence Day and Monday night could be
greatest (albeit still only near 30 percent) in the James River
valley. Both periods offer up some potential for locally strong
or severe storms, but deep-layer shear is forecast to only be
near 35 kt, suggesting any risk will not be high-end.

It does appear that deep-layer wind fields will strengthen in
the Tuesday through Friday period, which in and of itself may
suggest increasing potential of strong to severe storms during the
middle part of next week. However, there is uncertainty with where
an east-west frontal zone and axis of higher theta-E air may end
up residing. True to that point, the 12 UTC ECMWF suggests that
the deeper moisture and greatest risk of showers and storms may
stay south of western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period with a
southeast surface flow and isolated thunderstorm chances through
00 UTC Sunday. Any thunderstorm could produce a brief period of
mvfr vsbys but at this time confidence and coverage is too low to
mention in any one TAF. It appears the northern sites of KISN and
KMOT would have the best chance of an isolated shower or
thunderstorm after midnight through mid morning Saturday. A
thunderstorm is possible again late Saturday afternoon at KISN
and KDIK but too isolated attim to mention.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There is one area of light showers heading toward the area
between KJMS and Oakes ND, but it has been shrinking in coverage
as it has been doing so. There was more of a northern extent to
this area as well, but this has pretty much fallen apart. If this
area does hold together it should reach the western portions of
Sargent or Ransom counties in the next hour. Thinking it will
continue to dissipate as well, so it should be gone by 8 pm or so.
Then the challenge is whether any more pcpn forms later this
evening and overnight. High resolution models not doing so well,
but the 18z versions of the NAM and GFS show some pcpn redeveloping
in the Devils Lake region by late evening and lingering in that
area until sunrise. Both models keep any of this pcpn out of the
Red River Valley. Lack of much forcing keeps confidence low even
with these two models, but since the forecast had pcpn chances
for this area and this time...will keep them and monitor through
the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Main concerns will revolve around shower chances. 12z models in
decent agreement and will use the general idea provided by the
guidance to formulate the forecast. Radar indicates and area of
showers across central North Dakota propagating east...associated
with an upper level shortwave seen on water vapor imagery. Water
vapor imagery also indicates another upper level shortwave to the
northwest of North Dakota that will affect the region overnight
into Saturday morning. The forcing will be invading a dry airmass
as the SFC ridging only slowly propagates off to the east. The
upper waves appear relatively strong...and not sure that showers
will actually fall apart as they enter eastern North Dakota.
Plus...guidance indicates moderate mid-level frontogenesis
overnight...especially across NE ND. So...did increase PoPs where
there is the most agreeement (NE ND)...and will leave the minor
details for the next update when confidence increases concerning
the current showers across central ND. Rainfall overnight will be
light...likely under 0.25 inches.

On Saturday...Showers/isold thunder possible across the northern
FA if any waves move through the region. Otherwise...mainly dry
after the morning activity dissipates with slightly warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The main unknown through much of this time period will be
thunderstorm chances within zonal flow aloft. Despite southerly
low- level flow, moisture will be slow to advect into the region
during the weekend. Some storms may form over the high plains
later Saturday, but with weak forcing and meager instability to
the east, confidence in convection making it east into the area is
low. Some 850 mb warm advection could produce a few showers/storms
Sat Night into Sunday, so will continue to carry some low pops,
mainly across the north. Temps should return back into the 70s and
80s by Sunday.

A similar scenario is expected Sunday Night with storms firing to
the west likely weakening as instability decreases. With the
strongest warm advection signal across northern and western portions
of the area, kept some pops across these areas.

Independence Day will be quite warm, especially from the Red River
Valley westward, as the 850 mb thermal ridge axis noses into eastern
North Dakota. Global models generally indicate a surface boundary
will be draped across North Dakota extending southward from low
pressure up across Manitoba. At least a narrow axis of instability
along and ahead of the boundary and sufficient deep shear may
support a better chance for scattered storms during the
afternoon/evening, depending on capping/boundary placement.

The zonal flow pattern will continue through much of next week, with
a gradual cooling trend.  Plenty of dry hours are expected during
this period, although do you have pops mentioned in quite a few
periods given the uncertainty with timing fast-moving upper level
impulses in this sort of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Seeing some thicker cirrus moving toward the TAF sites now, but
other than that there is not much going on. Will keep a VCSH
mentioned at KDVL around midnight, but confidence is fairly low.
Wind speeds will stay light.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Godon




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There is one area of light showers heading toward the area
between KJMS and Oakes ND, but it has been shrinking in coverage
as it has been doing so. There was more of a northern extent to
this area as well, but this has pretty much fallen apart. If this
area does hold together it should reach the western portions of
Sargent or Ransom counties in the next hour. Thinking it will
continue to dissipate as well, so it should be gone by 8 pm or so.
Then the challenge is whether any more pcpn forms later this
evening and overnight. High resolution models not doing so well,
but the 18z versions of the NAM and GFS show some pcpn redeveloping
in the Devils Lake region by late evening and lingering in that
area until sunrise. Both models keep any of this pcpn out of the
Red River Valley. Lack of much forcing keeps confidence low even
with these two models, but since the forecast had pcpn chances
for this area and this time...will keep them and monitor through
the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Main concerns will revolve around shower chances. 12z models in
decent agreement and will use the general idea provided by the
guidance to formulate the forecast. Radar indicates and area of
showers across central North Dakota propagating east...associated
with an upper level shortwave seen on water vapor imagery. Water
vapor imagery also indicates another upper level shortwave to the
northwest of North Dakota that will affect the region overnight
into Saturday morning. The forcing will be invading a dry airmass
as the SFC ridging only slowly propagates off to the east. The
upper waves appear relatively strong...and not sure that showers
will actually fall apart as they enter eastern North Dakota.
Plus...guidance indicates moderate mid-level frontogenesis
overnight...especially across NE ND. So...did increase PoPs where
there is the most agreeement (NE ND)...and will leave the minor
details for the next update when confidence increases concerning
the current showers across central ND. Rainfall overnight will be
light...likely under 0.25 inches.

On Saturday...Showers/isold thunder possible across the northern
FA if any waves move through the region. Otherwise...mainly dry
after the morning activity dissipates with slightly warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The main unknown through much of this time period will be
thunderstorm chances within zonal flow aloft. Despite southerly
low- level flow, moisture will be slow to advect into the region
during the weekend. Some storms may form over the high plains
later Saturday, but with weak forcing and meager instability to
the east, confidence in convection making it east into the area is
low. Some 850 mb warm advection could produce a few showers/storms
Sat Night into Sunday, so will continue to carry some low pops,
mainly across the north. Temps should return back into the 70s and
80s by Sunday.

A similar scenario is expected Sunday Night with storms firing to
the west likely weakening as instability decreases. With the
strongest warm advection signal across northern and western portions
of the area, kept some pops across these areas.

Independence Day will be quite warm, especially from the Red River
Valley westward, as the 850 mb thermal ridge axis noses into eastern
North Dakota. Global models generally indicate a surface boundary
will be draped across North Dakota extending southward from low
pressure up across Manitoba. At least a narrow axis of instability
along and ahead of the boundary and sufficient deep shear may
support a better chance for scattered storms during the
afternoon/evening, depending on capping/boundary placement.

The zonal flow pattern will continue through much of next week, with
a gradual cooling trend.  Plenty of dry hours are expected during
this period, although do you have pops mentioned in quite a few
periods given the uncertainty with timing fast-moving upper level
impulses in this sort of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Seeing some thicker cirrus moving toward the TAF sites now, but
other than that there is not much going on. Will keep a VCSH
mentioned at KDVL around midnight, but confidence is fairly low.
Wind speeds will stay light.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Godon




000
FXUS63 KBIS 012045
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
345 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms across western
and central ND through Saturday night and beyond, but it will not
by any means be a washout.

As of 20 UTC, A band of showers and a few weak, embedded storms is
moving across the Highway 83 corridor in central ND. The lightning
detection network has shown a decreasing trend in both in-cloud
and cloud-to-ground lightning with this activity the further east
that it propagates, which is consistent with a lack of MUCAPE to
the east of Highway 83 per the SPC mesoscale analysis and recent
RAP and HRRR simulations. Even so, water vapor imagery continues
to suggest that the mid-level shortwave trough that`s responsible
for this convection is relatively dynamically-healthy as signaled
by modest darkening in its wake centered on Lake Sakakawea at mid
afternoon. The post-wave subsidence has allowed clearing to boost
temperatures into the 80 F range over eastern MT and far western
ND, and with dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s F, MLCAPE from
500 to 800 J/kg is expected there late this afternoon and this
evening. That may incite isolated thunderstorm development and a
brief/local strong storm is not out of the question in the west,
as has been suggested by some HRRR simulations today. Meanwhile,
the forcing with the wave is likely sufficient to carry showers
eastward through the remainder of central ND through evening.

Water vapor imagery suggests there is another weak shortwave
trough embedded in broad northwest flow aloft upstream in central
MT this afternoon. The 12 UTC GFS, NAM, and ECMWF and most of the
convection-permitting model guidance suggests this wave may assist
shower development/concentration over northern ND tonight in close
proximity to some modest mid-level frontogenesis. We used a multi-
model consensus to build the PoP forecast through tonight given
relatively good model-to-model agreement and support of the wave`s
existence in observational (satellite) data this afternoon. Storm
potential will be limited by modest mid-level lapse rates 6 C/km
or less in the 700-500 MB layer overnight.

On Saturday, temperatures will warm a bit with highs forecast to
reach the lower to middle 80s F along and west of the Highway 83
corridor. That will be thanks to modest low- and mid-level warm
air advection on southerly flow resulting from lee-side pressure
falls centered on MT. There is some uncertainty with the quality
of moisture return, but most 12 UTC guidance calls for surface
dewpoints only in the 50s F over western ND. Moreover, mid-level
lapse rates will be slow to steepen, which in turn is forecast to
keep CAPE relatively modest. The 12 UTC NAM and GFS nonetheless
support MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg along with 0-6-km bulk wind
differences of 30-35 kt in northwest and west central ND Saturday
evening, supporting a marginal risk of severe storms. The most
likely scenario is that a few storms will develop over MT near the
lee-side pressure trough Saturday afternoon and then move into
western (and especially northwestern) ND Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The long term forecast period will be characterized by a nearly
daily chance of thunderstorms in southwest flow aloft. Such a
pattern with low-amplitude shortwaves makes it difficult for us
to confidently pin down periods of higher and lower chances of
precipitation, so we allowed the multi-model consensus to drive
the forecast with 20 to 40 percent PoPs for much of the period.
Highs will be warmest Sunday and Independence Day Monday when
we are calling for temperatures of 80 to 90 F. A cooling trend
back toward the upper 70s and lower 80s is then being shown in
our forecast by late next week.

Trends we do see in the 12 UTC guidance are that 1) The chance
of storms may be focused over western ND Sunday afternoon and
evening in a relatively narrow axis of instability, and 2) The
chance of storms on Independence Day and Monday night could be
greatest (albeit still only near 30 percent) in the James River
valley. Both periods offer up some potential for locally strong
or severe storms, but deep-layer shear is forecast to only be
near 35 kt, suggesting any risk will not be high-end.

It does appear that deep-layer wind fields will strengthen in
the Tuesday through Friday period, which in and of itself may
suggest increasing potential of strong to severe storms during the
middle part of next week. However, there is uncertainty with where
an east-west frontal zone and axis of higher theta-E air may end
up residing. True to that point, the 12 UTC ECMWF suggests that
the deeper moisture and greatest risk of showers and storms may
stay south of western and central ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected this afternoon and tonight, though
there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms for, especially at KMOT
and KISN. Stronger storms could briefly reduce conditions to
MVFR. KJMS may also see a period of MVFR vis in shra late this
afternoon if the area of showers near KBIS holds as they move
east.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 012000
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Main concerns will revolve around shower chances. 12z models in
decent agreement and will use the general idea provided by the
guidance to formulate the forecast. Radar indicates and area of
showers across central North Dakota propagating east...associated
with an upper level shortwave seen on water vapor imagery. Water
vapor imagery also indicates another upper level shortwave to the
northwest of North Dakota that will affect the region overnight
into Saturday morning. The forcing will be invading a dry airmass
as the SFC ridging only slowly propagates off to the east. The
upper waves appear relatively strong...and not sure that showers
will actually fall apart as they enter eastern North Dakota.
Plus...guidance indicates moderate mid-level frontogenesis
overnight...especially across NE ND. So...did increase PoPs where
there is the most agreeement (NE ND)...and will leave the minor
details for the next update when confidence increases concerning
the current showers across central ND. Rainfall overnight will be
light...likely under 0.25 inches.

On Saturday...Showers/isold thunder possible across the northern
FA if any waves move through the region. Otherwise...mainly dry
after the morning activity dissipates with slightly warmer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The main unknown through much of this time period will be
thunderstorm chances within zonal flow aloft. Despite southerly
low- level flow, moisture will be slow to advect into the region
during the weekend. Some storms may form over the high plains
later Saturday, but with weak forcing and meager instability to
the east, confidence in convection making it east into the area is
low. Some 850 mb warm advection could produce a few showers/storms
Sat Night into Sunday, so will continue to carry some low pops,
mainly across the north. Temps should return back into the 70s and
80s by Sunday.

A similar scenario is expected Sunday Night with storms firing to
the west likely weakening as instability decreases. With the
strongest warm advection signal across northern and western portions
of the area, kept some pops across these areas.

Independence Day will be quite warm, especially from the Red River
Valley westward, as the 850 mb thermal ridge axis noses into eastern
North Dakota. Global models generally indicate a surface boundary
will be draped across North Dakota extending southward from low
pressure up across Manitoba. At least a narrow axis of instability
along and ahead of the boundary and sufficient deep shear may
support a better chance for scattered storms during the
afternoon/evening, depending on capping/boundary placement.

The zonal flow pattern will continue through much of next week, with
a gradual cooling trend.  Plenty of dry hours are expected during
this period, although do you have pops mentioned in quite a few
periods given the uncertainty with timing fast-moving upper level
impulses in this sort of pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Shower chances will be the major concern as CIGS will remain VFR.
With that said...although the shower chances are
increasing...expected coverage not enough to include yet in the
forecast.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The forecast looks to be on track through the afternoon. Will be
watching an area of showers/thunder across northwest North Dakota
as to whether or not it can hold together as it approaches the low
level ridging. Otherwise...most guidance in agreement that
strongest forcing will be tonight across the Devils Lake basin as
a shortwave induces weak frontogenesis leading to showers
(instability null). Will await additional guidance before
adjusting PoPs upward (need more confidence).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures and pcpn chances
mainly across the north into the holiday weekend. Models in fair
agreement overall.

Region will remain in relatively flat W-NW flow into the long
term.

Pleasant day ahead as surface high pressure drifts southeast
through the day. Column modestly warms as weak return flow
develops mainly from valley west. After a cool start with plenty
of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover
into the low/mid 70s.

Tonight surface low pressure develops over the northern rockies
with E-W oriented warm front organizing and lifting north through
the forecast area. Doesnt appear to much upper support however
with modest low level jet and warm advection maxima over the
northern high plains could see convection developing and
propagating east overnight. Model consensus has boundary roughly
bisecting the fa from N-S so introduced pops to the northern fa.
Moisture/instability lacking farther east into our FA so may just
be some lingering shra which gets into the NW.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Could see some spotty SHRA Saturday morning across the north as
the above mention boundary becomes quasistationary. How much of
this hangs around during the day in question so just have some
slight chc pops going across the north.

Similar scenario possible Saturday night into sunday.  With
exception of warm advection north of the boundary forcing still
looks relatively weak. Low level moisture gradually increases into
Sunday. Moisture gradually increases however convective parameters
still not very impressive. With warming continuing temperatures
should range closer to average.

A bit stronger wave may bring better chances for TSRA later Sunday
however quite a bit of spread between model guidance solutions at
this point.

Fourth of July Monday to Thursday night...Models remain in good
agreement with the extended when it comes to the main synoptic
features with differences in timing of impulses moving along the
mean zonal to WSW 500MB flow. Currently the better chances for PCPN
appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday night as the arrival of the
short wave energy nearly coincides with peak heating...allowing for
best use of instability and potential greater coverage of convective
activity at these times. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s with a few locations near 90 in SE ND through Wednesday with a
bit of a cool down expected for Thursday when temps will peak in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Shower chances will be the major concern as CIGS will remain VFR.
With that said...although the shower chances are
increasing...expected coverage not enough to include yet in the
forecast.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011744
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Once again, this update extrapolated radar trends and relied on a
consensus of short range and rapid-refresh guidance to capture an
eastward-propagating batch of showers and weak, embedded storms
that extends from Bowbells to Parshall and Hettinger as of 1740
UTC. There is a break in the activity along Interstate 94, and
that may not fill in, especially since the convection is still
expected to undergo an overall weakening trend the deeper it gets
into central ND where MUCAPE is negligible east of Highway 83.

UPDATE Issued at 847 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

This update focused on increasing PoPs into the 70+ percent range
in northwest ND this morning to account for the line of showers
and weak storms approaching Williston as of 1345 UTC. Convection-
allowing model guidance like the HRRR and ESRL-HRRR has a decent
handle on this activity, which is being triggered by a relatively
well-defined shortwave trough seen over northeastern MT on water
vapor images. However, all of those models are too slow bringing
the activity eastward when compared to reality. Weak instability
will prevent much strengthening of any storms today. In fact,
precipitation may tend to weaken as it reaches central ND where
lower atmospheric moisture content is less. Nonetheless, we chose
to carry a chance of showers and storms deeper into central ND by
afternoon (including Bismarck/Mandan) with this update in respect
to the shortwave trough passage.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted pops slightly to
account for ongoing showers in the southwest and approaching
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Currently...cool and dry surface high pressure was centered over the
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota border with low pressure over the
Rockies. At upper levels...low pressure was over Hudson Bay with
another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level
flow over much of western North America. An upper level shortwave
emanating from the Canadian Rockies was moving eastward along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border early this morning. This was associated
with an area of convection that has persisted from late evening
through the early morning hours. Another impulse over western Wyoming
was also associated with convection over southern Montana and into
Wyoming. A low level jet was established along the Front Range
supporting the ongoing convection.

The models are in agreement bringing the upper level impulses
eastward into the Dakotas towards daybreak...continuing eastward
during the daytime hours. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today across North Dakota. The models
weaken the southerly low level jet during the day. This combined
with a weak CAPE and bulk shear environment across North Dakota
should inhibit the likelihood of severe weather.

Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with
expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James
Valley to upper 70s in the west.

As the surface high moves east tonight and low pressure continues to
develop in the lee of the Rockies, stronger southerly surface winds
and a re-development of a southerly low level jet over eastern
Montana/Wyoming and into the western Dakotas will combine with yet
another upper level impulse moving southeast across south central
Canada and North Dakota to support convection. Models are in fair
agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and
just north of the nose of the low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As the upper level Hudson Bay low moves east and the Gulf of Alaska
low digs into British Columbia a shortwave ridge builds between the
two lows. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas
Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small
chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the
ridge. The best instability and shear remains mainly west of our
area, but the Storm Prediction Center depicts a marginal risk of
severe storms into northwestern North Dakota in the afternoon and
evening hours.

An upper level wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, with best chances Sunday afternoon and
night. Stronger CAPE and bulk shear values will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s and a strong southerly
low level jet with westerly upper level flow. This scenario will be
more favorable for strong to severe storms to develop, and SPC
depicts a marginal risk of severe storms over all of western and
into much of central North Dakota.

Next week: The aforementioned Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia low
progresses east and broadens as it moves across the Canadian Rockies
Monday...emerging in the Canadian Plains Tuesday...before finally
residing in the Hudson Bay region by Thursday. This will set up a
west/southwest upper level flow over North Dakota with several weak
disturbances moving through. A more potent upper level shortwave is
progged by the models to impact North Dakota on Thursday, and the
model consensus results in higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in the
week with highs mainly 80 to 90. Cooler towards the end of the week
with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected this afternoon and tonight, though
there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially at KMOT
and KISN. Stronger cells could briefly reduce conditions to MVFR.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011449
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The forecast looks to be on track through the afternoon. Will be
watching an area of showers/thunder across northwest North Dakota
as to whether or not it can hold together as it approaches the low
level ridging. Otherwise...most guidance in agreement that
strongest forcing will be tonight across the Devils Lake basin as
a shortwave induces weak frontogenesis leading to showers
(instability null). Will await additional guidance before
adjusting PoPs upward (need more confidence).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures and pcpn chances
mainly across the north into the holiday weekend. Models in fair
agreement overall.

Region will remain in relatively flat W-NW flow into the long
term.

Pleasant day ahead as surface high pressure drifts southeast
through the day. Column modestly warms as weak return flow
develops mainly from valley west. After a cool start with plenty
of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover
into the low/mid 70s.

Tonight surface low pressure develops over the northern rockies
with E-W oriented warm front organizing and lifting north through
the forecast area. Doesnt appear to much upper support however
with modest low level jet and warm advection maxima over the
northern high plains could see convection developing and
propagating east overnight. Model consensus has boundary roughly
bisecting the fa from N-S so introduced pops to the northern fa.
Moisture/instability lacking farther east into our FA so may just
be some lingering shra which gets into the NW.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Could see some spotty SHRA Saturday morning across the north as
the above mention boundary becomes quasistationary. How much of
this hangs around during the day in question so just have some
slight chc pops going across the north.

Similar scenario possible Saturday night into sunday.  With
exception of warm advection north of the boundary forcing still
looks relatively weak. Low level moisture gradually increases into
Sunday. Moisture gradually increases however convective parameters
still not very impressive. With warming continuing temperatures
should range closer to average.

A bit stronger wave may bring better chances for TSRA later Sunday
however quite a bit of spread between model guidance solutions at
this point.

Fourth of July Monday to Thursday night...Models remain in good
agreement with the extended when it comes to the main synoptic
features with differences in timing of impulses moving along the
mean zonal to WSW 500MB flow. Currently the better chances for PCPN
appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday night as the arrival of the
short wave energy nearly coincides with peak heating...allowing for
best use of instability and potential greater coverage of convective
activity at these times. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s with a few locations near 90 in SE ND through Wednesday with a
bit of a cool down expected for Thursday when temps will peak in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Rain chances too iffy
across the north to warrant mention at any site.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011347
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
847 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

This update focused on increasing PoPs into the 70+ percent range
in northwest ND this morning to account for the line of showers
and weak storms approaching Williston as of 1345 UTC. Convection-
allowing model guidance like the HRRR and ESRL-HRRR has a decent
handle on this activity, which is being triggered by a relatively
well-defined shortwave trough seen over northeastern MT on water
vapor images. However, all of those models are too slow bringing
the activity eastward when compared to reality. Weak instability
will prevent much strengthening of any storms today. In fact,
precipitation may tend to weaken as it reaches central ND where
lower atmospheric moisture content is less. Nonetheless, we chose
to carry a chance of showers and storms deeper into central ND by
afternoon (including Bismarck/Mandan) with this update in respect
to the shortwave trough passage.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted pops slightly to
account for ongoing showers in the southwest and approaching
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Currently...cool and dry surface high pressure was centered over the
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota border with low pressure over the
Rockies. At upper levels...low pressure was over Hudson Bay with
another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level
flow over much of western North America. An upper level shortwave
emanating from the Canadian Rockies was moving eastward along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border early this morning. This was associated
with an area of convection that has persisted from late evening
through the early morning hours. Another impulse over western Wyoming
was also associated with convection over southern Montana and into
Wyoming. A low level jet was established along the Front Range
supporting the ongoing convection.

The models are in agreement bringing the upper level impulses
eastward into the Dakotas towards daybreak...continuing eastward
during the daytime hours. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today across North Dakota. The models
weaken the southerly low level jet during the day. This combined
with a weak CAPE and bulk shear environment across North Dakota
should inhibit the likelihood of severe weather.

Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with
expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James
Valley to upper 70s in the west.

As the surface high moves east tonight and low pressure continues to
develop in the lee of the Rockies, stronger southerly surface winds
and a re-development of a southerly low level jet over eastern
Montana/Wyoming and into the western Dakotas will combine with yet
another upper level impulse moving southeast across south central
Canada and North Dakota to support convection. Models are in fair
agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and
just north of the nose of the low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As the upper level Hudson Bay low moves east and the Gulf of Alaska
low digs into British Columbia a shortwave ridge builds between the
two lows. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas
Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small
chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the
ridge. The best instability and shear remains mainly west of our
area, but the Storm Prediction Center depicts a marginal risk of
severe storms into northwestern North Dakota in the afternoon and
evening hours.

An upper level wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, with best chances Sunday afternoon and
night. Stronger CAPE and bulk shear values will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s and a strong southerly
low level jet with westerly upper level flow. This scenario will be
more favorable for strong to severe storms to develop, and SPC
depicts a marginal risk of severe storms over all of western and
into much of central North Dakota.

Next week: The aforementioned Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia low
progresses east and broadens as it moves across the Canadian Rockies
Monday...emerging in the Canadian Plains Tuesday...before finally
residing in the Hudson Bay region by Thursday. This will set up a
west/southwest upper level flow over North Dakota with several weak
disturbances moving through. A more potent upper level shortwave is
progged by the models to impact North Dakota on Thursday, and the
model consensus results in higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in the
week with highs mainly 80 to 90. Cooler towards the end of the week
with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Expecting mainly VFR conditions. A chance of thunderstorms exists
today and tonight, mainly across the west for KDIK, KISN and KMOT
which could briefly reduce conditions to MVFR for any locations
directly under a thunderstorm.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011347
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
847 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

This update focused on increasing PoPs into the 70+ percent range
in northwest ND this morning to account for the line of showers
and weak storms approaching Williston as of 1345 UTC. Convection-
allowing model guidance like the HRRR and ESRL-HRRR has a decent
handle on this activity, which is being triggered by a relatively
well-defined shortwave trough seen over northeastern MT on water
vapor images. However, all of those models are too slow bringing
the activity eastward when compared to reality. Weak instability
will prevent much strengthening of any storms today. In fact,
precipitation may tend to weaken as it reaches central ND where
lower atmospheric moisture content is less. Nonetheless, we chose
to carry a chance of showers and storms deeper into central ND by
afternoon (including Bismarck/Mandan) with this update in respect
to the shortwave trough passage.

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted pops slightly to
account for ongoing showers in the southwest and approaching
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Currently...cool and dry surface high pressure was centered over the
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota border with low pressure over the
Rockies. At upper levels...low pressure was over Hudson Bay with
another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level
flow over much of western North America. An upper level shortwave
emanating from the Canadian Rockies was moving eastward along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border early this morning. This was associated
with an area of convection that has persisted from late evening
through the early morning hours. Another impulse over western Wyoming
was also associated with convection over southern Montana and into
Wyoming. A low level jet was established along the Front Range
supporting the ongoing convection.

The models are in agreement bringing the upper level impulses
eastward into the Dakotas towards daybreak...continuing eastward
during the daytime hours. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today across North Dakota. The models
weaken the southerly low level jet during the day. This combined
with a weak CAPE and bulk shear environment across North Dakota
should inhibit the likelihood of severe weather.

Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with
expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James
Valley to upper 70s in the west.

As the surface high moves east tonight and low pressure continues to
develop in the lee of the Rockies, stronger southerly surface winds
and a re-development of a southerly low level jet over eastern
Montana/Wyoming and into the western Dakotas will combine with yet
another upper level impulse moving southeast across south central
Canada and North Dakota to support convection. Models are in fair
agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and
just north of the nose of the low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As the upper level Hudson Bay low moves east and the Gulf of Alaska
low digs into British Columbia a shortwave ridge builds between the
two lows. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas
Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small
chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the
ridge. The best instability and shear remains mainly west of our
area, but the Storm Prediction Center depicts a marginal risk of
severe storms into northwestern North Dakota in the afternoon and
evening hours.

An upper level wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, with best chances Sunday afternoon and
night. Stronger CAPE and bulk shear values will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s and a strong southerly
low level jet with westerly upper level flow. This scenario will be
more favorable for strong to severe storms to develop, and SPC
depicts a marginal risk of severe storms over all of western and
into much of central North Dakota.

Next week: The aforementioned Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia low
progresses east and broadens as it moves across the Canadian Rockies
Monday...emerging in the Canadian Plains Tuesday...before finally
residing in the Hudson Bay region by Thursday. This will set up a
west/southwest upper level flow over North Dakota with several weak
disturbances moving through. A more potent upper level shortwave is
progged by the models to impact North Dakota on Thursday, and the
model consensus results in higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in the
week with highs mainly 80 to 90. Cooler towards the end of the week
with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Expecting mainly VFR conditions. A chance of thunderstorms exists
today and tonight, mainly across the west for KDIK, KISN and KMOT
which could briefly reduce conditions to MVFR for any locations
directly under a thunderstorm.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 011143
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted pops slightly to
account for ongoing showers in the southwest and approaching
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Currently...cool and dry surface high pressure was centered over the
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota border with low pressure over the
Rockies. At upper levels...low pressure was over Hudson Bay with
another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level
flow over much of western North America. An upper level shortwave
emanating from the Canadian Rockies was moving eastward along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border early this morning. This was associated
with an area of convection that has persisted from late evening
through the early morning hours. Another impulse over western Wyoming
was also associated with convection over southern Montana and into
Wyoming. A low level jet was established along the Front Range
supporting the ongoing convection.

The models are in agreement bringing the upper level impulses
eastward into the Dakotas towards daybreak...continuing eastward
during the daytime hours. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today across North Dakota. The models
weaken the southerly low level jet during the day. This combined
with a weak CAPE and bulk shear environment across North Dakota
should inhibit the likelihood of severe weather.

Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with
expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James
Valley to upper 70s in the west.

As the surface high moves east tonight and low pressure continues to
develop in the lee of the Rockies, stronger southerly surface winds
and a re-development of a southerly low level jet over eastern
Montana/Wyoming and into the western Dakotas will combine with yet
another upper level impulse moving southeast across south central
Canada and North Dakota to support convection. Models are in fair
agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and
just north of the nose of the low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As the upper level Hudson Bay low moves east and the Gulf of Alaska
low digs into British Columbia a shortwave ridge builds between the
two lows. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas
Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small
chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the
ridge. The best instability and shear remains mainly west of our
area, but the Storm Prediction Center depicts a marginal risk of
severe storms into northwestern North Dakota in the afternoon and
evening hours.

An upper level wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, with best chances Sunday afternoon and
night. Stronger CAPE and bulk shear values will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s and a strong southerly
low level jet with westerly upper level flow. This scenario will be
more favorable for strong to severe storms to develop, and SPC
depicts a marginal risk of severe storms over all of western and
into much of central North Dakota.

Next week: The aforementioned Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia low
progresses east and broadens as it moves across the Canadian Rockies
Monday...emerging in the Canadian Plains Tuesday...before finally
residing in the Hudson Bay region by Thursday. This will set up a
west/southwest upper level flow over North Dakota with several weak
disturbances moving through. A more potent upper level shortwave is
progged by the models to impact North Dakota on Thursday, and the
model consensus results in higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in the
week with highs mainly 80 to 90. Cooler towards the end of the week
with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Expecting mainly VFR conditions. A chance of thunderstorms exists
today and tonight, mainly across the west for KDIK, KISN and KMOT
which could briefly reduce conditions to MVFR for any locations
directly under a thunderstorm.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Localized ground fog over the northern valley however not to last
much longer than an hour. Only clouds to speak of is some ci from
upstream convection which will have no impact on temperature
recovery. No changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures and pcpn chances
mainly across the north into the holiday weekend. Models in fair
agreement overall.

Region will remain in relatively flat W-NW flow into the long
term.

Pleasant day ahead as surface high pressure drifts southeast
through the day. Column modestly warms as weak return flow
develops mainly from valley west. After a cool start with plenty
of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover
into the low/mid 70s.

Tonight surface low pressure develops over the northern rockies
with E-W oriented warm front organizing and lifting north through
the forecast area. Doesnt appear to much upper support however
with modest low level jet and warm advection maxima over the
northern high plains could see convection developing and
propagating east overnight. Model consensus has boundary roughly
bisecting the fa from N-S so introduced pops to the northern fa.
Moisture/instability lacking farther east into our FA so may just
be some lingering shra which gets into the NW.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Could see some spotty SHRA Saturday morning across the north as
the above mention boundary becomes quasistationary. How much of
this hangs around during the day in question so just have some
slight chc pops going across the north.

Similar scenario possible Saturday night into sunday.  With
exception of warm advection north of the boundary forcing still
looks relatively weak. Low level moisture gradually increases into
Sunday. Moisture gradually increases however convective parameters
still not very impressive. With warming continuing temperatures
should range closer to average.

A bit stronger wave may bring better chances for TSRA later Sunday
however quite a bit of spread between model guidance solutions at
this point.

Fourth of July Monday to Thursday night...Models remain in good
agreement with the extended when it comes to the main synoptic
features with differences in timing of impulses moving along the
mean zonal to WSW 500MB flow. Currently the better chances for PCPN
appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday night as the arrival of the
short wave energy nearly coincides with peak heating...allowing for
best use of instability and potential greater coverage of convective
activity at these times. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s with a few locations near 90 in SE ND through Wednesday with a
bit of a cool down expected for Thursday when temps will peak in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Rain chances too iffy
across the north to warrant mention at any site.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker




000
FXUS63 KFGF 011135
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Localized ground fog over the northern valley however not to last
much longer than an hour. Only clouds to speak of is some ci from
upstream convection which will have no impact on temperature
recovery. No changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures and pcpn chances
mainly across the north into the holiday weekend. Models in fair
agreement overall.

Region will remain in relatively flat W-NW flow into the long
term.

Pleasant day ahead as surface high pressure drifts southeast
through the day. Column modestly warms as weak return flow
develops mainly from valley west. After a cool start with plenty
of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover
into the low/mid 70s.

Tonight surface low pressure develops over the northern rockies
with E-W oriented warm front organizing and lifting north through
the forecast area. Doesnt appear to much upper support however
with modest low level jet and warm advection maxima over the
northern high plains could see convection developing and
propagating east overnight. Model consensus has boundary roughly
bisecting the fa from N-S so introduced pops to the northern fa.
Moisture/instability lacking farther east into our FA so may just
be some lingering shra which gets into the NW.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Could see some spotty SHRA Saturday morning across the north as
the above mention boundary becomes quasistationary. How much of
this hangs around during the day in question so just have some
slight chc pops going across the north.

Similar scenario possible Saturday night into sunday.  With
exception of warm advection north of the boundary forcing still
looks relatively weak. Low level moisture gradually increases into
Sunday. Moisture gradually increases however convective parameters
still not very impressive. With warming continuing temperatures
should range closer to average.

A bit stronger wave may bring better chances for TSRA later Sunday
however quite a bit of spread between model guidance solutions at
this point.

Fourth of July Monday to Thursday night...Models remain in good
agreement with the extended when it comes to the main synoptic
features with differences in timing of impulses moving along the
mean zonal to WSW 500MB flow. Currently the better chances for PCPN
appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday night as the arrival of the
short wave energy nearly coincides with peak heating...allowing for
best use of instability and potential greater coverage of convective
activity at these times. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s with a few locations near 90 in SE ND through Wednesday with a
bit of a cool down expected for Thursday when temps will peak in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Rain chances too iffy
across the north to warrant mention at any site.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Voelker




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Currently...cool and dry surface high pressure was centered over the
Manitoba/North Dakota/Minnesota border with low pressure over the
Rockies. At upper levels...low pressure was over Hudson Bay with
another upper low in the Gulf of Alaska with weak zonal upper level
flow over much of western North America. An upper level shortwave
emanating from the Canadian Rockies was moving eastward along the
Saskatchewan/Montana border early this morning. This was associated
with an area of convection that has persisted from late evening
through the early morning hours. Another impulse over western Wyoming
was also associated with convection over southern Montana and into
Wyoming. A low level jet was established along the Front Range
supporting the ongoing convection.

The models are in agreement bringing the upper level impulses
eastward into the Dakotas towards daybreak...continuing eastward
during the daytime hours. This will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms today across North Dakota. The models
weaken the southerly low level jet during the day. This combined
with a weak CAPE and bulk shear environment across North Dakota
should inhibit the likelihood of severe weather.

Temperatures should be a tad higher today than yesterday, with
expected highs from the lower 70s from the Turtle Mountains to James
Valley to upper 70s in the west.

As the surface high moves east tonight and low pressure continues to
develop in the lee of the Rockies, stronger southerly surface winds
and a re-development of a southerly low level jet over eastern
Montana/Wyoming and into the western Dakotas will combine with yet
another upper level impulse moving southeast across south central
Canada and North Dakota to support convection. Models are in fair
agreement that the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
across northwestern and north central North Dakota; mainly along and
just north of the nose of the low level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

As the upper level Hudson Bay low moves east and the Gulf of Alaska
low digs into British Columbia a shortwave ridge builds between the
two lows. This upper ridge axis passes over the Dakotas
Saturday/Saturday night bringing warmer temperatures and small
chances of thunderstorms with weak impulses moving through the
ridge. The best instability and shear remains mainly west of our
area, but the Storm Prediction Center depicts a marginal risk of
severe storms into northwestern North Dakota in the afternoon and
evening hours.

An upper level wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, with best chances Sunday afternoon and
night. Stronger CAPE and bulk shear values will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s and a strong southerly
low level jet with westerly upper level flow. This scenario will be
more favorable for strong to severe storms to develop, and SPC
depicts a marginal risk of severe storms over all of western and
into much of central North Dakota.

Next week: The aforementioned Gulf of Alaska/British Columbia low
progresses east and broadens as it moves across the Canadian Rockies
Monday...emerging in the Canadian Plains Tuesday...before finally
residing in the Hudson Bay region by Thursday. This will set up a
west/southwest upper level flow over North Dakota with several weak
disturbances moving through. A more potent upper level shortwave is
progged by the models to impact North Dakota on Thursday, and the
model consensus results in higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above average early in the
week with highs mainly 80 to 90. Cooler towards the end of the week
with highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Area of showers and
thunderstorms currently approaching northeast Montana may reach
northwest ND by around 12Z, but expected to be very isolated. Some
of the high res models also show convection developing across far
southwest ND around 12z. For now held off on any mention of
precipitation in the TAFs for KISN and KDIK, but will continue to
monitor.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010823
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
323 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Forecast challenge concerns mainly temperatures and pcpn chances
mainly across the north into the holiday weekend. Models in fair
agreement overall.

Region will remain in relatively flat W-NW flow into the long
term.

Pleasant day ahead as surface high pressure drifts southeast
through the day. Column modestly warms as weak return flow
develops mainly from valley west. After a cool start with plenty
of solar and warming column temperatures should be able to recover
into the low/mid 70s.

Tonight surface low pressure develops over the northern rockies
with E-W oriented warm front organizing and lifting north through
the forecast area. Doesnt appear to much upper support however
with modest low level jet and warm advection maxima over the
northern high plains could see convection developing and
propagating east overnight. Model consensus has boundary roughly
bisecting the fa from N-S so introduced pops to the northern fa.
Moisture/instability lacking farther east into our FA so may just
be some lingering shra which gets into the NW.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Could see some spotty SHRA Saturday morning across the north as
the above mention boundary becomes quasistationary. How much of
this hangs around during the day in question so just have some
slight chc pops going across the north.

Similar scenario possible Saturday night into sunday.  With
exception of warm advection north of the boundary forcing still
looks relatively weak. Low level moisture gradually increases into
Sunday. Moisture gradually increases however convective parameters
still not very impressive. With warming continuing temperatures
should range closer to average.

A bit stronger wave may bring better chances for TSRA later Sunday
however quite a bit of spread between model guidance solutions at
this point.

Fourth of July Monday to Thursday night...Models remain in good
agreement with the extended when it comes to the main synoptic
features with differences in timing of impulses moving along the
mean zonal to WSW 500MB flow. Currently the better chances for PCPN
appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday night as the arrival of the
short wave energy nearly coincides with peak heating...allowing for
best use of instability and potential greater coverage of convective
activity at these times. Max temperatures will be in the low to mid
80s with a few locations near 90 in SE ND through Wednesday with a
bit of a cool down expected for Thursday when temps will peak in
the upper 70s to low 80s in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR thru the pd. VFR stratocu deck dropped into Fargo but should
clear out by 10z or so. Otherwise skies clear at TAF sites. Cannot
rule out some ground fog here and there but confidence is very
low.  Light winds thru Friday.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010532
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Convection holding together across southern Saskatchewan and north
central Montana. The convection is associated with an upper level
energy impulse that moved out of the Rockies into the western
plains...and is progged to reach the western border of North Dakota
by around 12z/daybreak and continue east across the state during the
daytime Friday. Latest iterations of the high res models indicate
the convection should maintain as it progresses east early this
morning, but should weaken as it moves into a weaker CAPE
environment.

Regarding temperatures, some locales across western and central
North Dakota had already dropped into the upper 40s. Have lowered
expected overnight lows a bit from previous forecast and blended
hourly temperatures with current observations. Expect lows in the
mid 40s central North Dakota, but with return southeasterly winds in
the western part of the state temperatures should remain in the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Convection tracking through southern Alberta into Saskatchewan
will run into a much less favorable environment as it approaches
North Dakota. However, there could be some lingering convection
moving into the far northwest around daybreak. Added a slight
chance of thunderstorms here 12-15 UTC Friday. Already a slight
chance late tonight into Friday morning across the southwest. Also
increased sky cover in the northwest tonight as cirrus spreads
quickly east ahead of the main line of convection.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across
central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the
lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight
and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western
ND by morning. Only some minor updates early this evening for sky
cover with most areas cloud free. Updated latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping
near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the
Rockies. Weak cyclonic flow remains over our area resulting in
some low level convective clouds over portions of the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

For tonight, clouds should quickly erode this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Aforementioned surface high settles in
over the area resulting in a relatively chilly night, with most
locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper
ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western
North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge
pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations
will be a tad below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridge axis passes over the area early Saturday bringing
warmer temperatures. Wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, particularly over northern and
western locations.

West/southwesterly flow sets up for the upcoming week with a
variety of weak disturbances moving through. This will bring a
near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Area of showers and
thunderstorms currently approaching northeast Montana may reach
northwest ND by around 12Z, but expected to be very isolated. Some
of the high res models also show convection developing across far
southwest ND around 12z. For now held off on any mention of
precipitation in the TAFs for KISN and KDIK, but will continue to
monitor.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JNS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 010444
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Based on temps at 04z lowered temps a few degrees in many areas as
some colder spots will drop to around 40. cloud band still hanging
around and drifting south but some shrinking in size. It should
continue drifting south a bit and continue to shrink.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Impacts will be minimal with limited concerns. 12Z model guidance
all in good agreement and will use a blend for details. High
pressure will be propagating across the region through the period.
Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar
and approaching high pressure. This will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight with min temps likely in the mid 40s.
Next shift will need to monitor for fog potential...although short
nights should limit this potential. On Friday...light winds and
weak mixing...but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low-
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday Night-Sunday...The influence of high pressure will
dominate for Saturday corresponding with only light south to
southeast winds and temps that will rebound to near average values
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. On Sunday an upper short wave
ridge will only slowly break down and allow a surface low over
Montana to make slow progress to the east. As it does so however,
a tightening gradient will boost wind speeds toward 15 kts,
especially along and east of the Red River valley.

Monday-Thursday...Long wave upper level trough over the Canadian
west will be in place during extended period next week as the
northern plains ridge flattens, yielding a zonal flow regime.

This will favor periodic chances for thunderstorms, reflected in the
the gridded forecasts with chc pops through the whole time frame.
Temperatures will be fairly steady and near seasonal averages with
highs in the low to mid eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR thru the pd. VFR stratocu deck dropped into Fargo but should
clear out by 10z or so. Otherwise skies clear at TAF sites. Cannot
rule out some ground fog here and there but confidence is very
low.  Light winds thru Friday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KBIS 010239
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Convection tracking through southern Alberta into Saskatchewan
will run into a much less favorable environment as it approaches
North Dakota. However, there could be some lingering convection
moving into the far northwest around daybreak. Added a slight
chance of thunderstorms here 12-15 UTC Friday. Already a slight
chance late tonight into Friday morning across the southwest. Also
increased sky cover in the northwest tonight as cirrus spreads
quickly east ahead of the main line of convection.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across
central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the
lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight
and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western
ND by morning. Only some minor updates early this evening for sky
cover with most areas cloud free. Updated latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping
near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the
Rockies. Weak cyclonic flow remains over our area resulting in
some low level convective clouds over portions of the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

For tonight, clouds should quickly erode this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Aforementioned surface high settles in
over the area resulting in a relatively chilly night, with most
locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper
ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western
North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge
pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations
will be a tad below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridge axis passes over the area early Saturday bringing
warmer temperatures. Wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, particularly over northern and
western locations.

West/southwesterly flow sets up for the upcoming week with a
variety of weak disturbances moving through. This will bring a
near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at all taf
sites. Generally a light north to northeast wind this evening
becoming southeast by morning across all TAF sites. Winds will
become gusty in southwest ND Friday, including KDIK with gusts to
around 25 mph. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the
far west late tonight through Friday. Chances to slim at this time
to add a mention at KDIK.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Band of cloud cover dropping south thru the rrn and nrn mn will
continue to do so into early evening and with sunset expect the
clouds to generally dissipate. Cool night with lows in the
40s...some lower 40s in the traditional cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Impacts will be minimal with limited concerns. 12Z model guidance
all in good agreement and will use a blend for details. High
pressure will be propagating across the region through the period.
Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar
and approaching high pressure. This will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight with min temps likely in the mid 40s.
Next shift will need to monitor for fog potential...although short
nights should limit this potential. On Friday...light winds and
weak mixing...but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low-
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday Night-Sunday...The influence of high pressure will
dominate for Saturday corresponding with only light south to
southeast winds and temps that will rebound to near average values
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. On Sunday an upper short wave
ridge will only slowly break down and allow a surface low over
Montana to make slow progress to the east. As it does so however,
a tightening gradient will boost wind speeds toward 15 kts,
especially along and east of the Red River valley.

Monday-Thursday...Long wave upper level trough over the Canadian
west will be in place during extended period next week as the
northern plains ridge flattens, yielding a zonal flow regime.

This will favor periodic chances for thunderstorms, reflected in the
the gridded forecasts with chc pops through the whole time frame.
Temperatures will be fairly steady and near seasonal averages with
highs in the low to mid eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Cloud band GFK-FAR to BJI to scatter out this evening then clear
overnight into Friday. Winds diminishing to light northerly or
light and variable late tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302333
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Band of cloud cover dropping south thru the rrn and nrn mn will
continue to do so into early evening and with sunset expect the
clouds to generally dissipate. Cool night with lows in the
40s...some lower 40s in the traditional cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Impacts will be minimal with limited concerns. 12Z model guidance
all in good agreement and will use a blend for details. High
pressure will be propagating across the region through the period.
Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar
and approaching high pressure. This will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight with min temps likely in the mid 40s.
Next shift will need to monitor for fog potential...although short
nights should limit this potential. On Friday...light winds and
weak mixing...but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low-
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday Night-Sunday...The influence of high pressure will
dominate for Saturday corresponding with only light south to
southeast winds and temps that will rebound to near average values
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. On Sunday an upper short wave
ridge will only slowly break down and allow a surface low over
Montana to make slow progress to the east. As it does so however,
a tightening gradient will boost wind speeds toward 15 kts,
especially along and east of the Red River valley.

Monday-Thursday...Long wave upper level trough over the Canadian
west will be in place during extended period next week as the
northern plains ridge flattens, yielding a zonal flow regime.

This will favor periodic chances for thunderstorms, reflected in the
the gridded forecasts with chc pops through the whole time frame.
Temperatures will be fairly steady and near seasonal averages with
highs in the low to mid eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Cloud band GFK-FAR to BJI to scatter out this evening then clear
overnight into Friday. Winds diminishing to light northerly or
light and variable late tonight and Friday morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302331
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across
central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the
lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight
and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western
ND by morning. Only some minor updates early this evening for sky
cover with most areas cloud free. Updated latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping
near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the
Rockies. Weak cyclonic flow remains over our area resulting in
some low level convective clouds over portions of the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

For tonight, clouds should quickly erode this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Aforementioned surface high settles in
over the area resulting in a relatively chilly night, with most
locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper
ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western
North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge
pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations
will be a tad below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridge axis passes over the area early Saturday bringing
warmer temperatures. Wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, particularly over northern and
western locations.

West/southwesterly flow sets up for the upcoming week with a
variety of weak disturbances moving through. This will bring a
near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at all taf
sites. Generally a light north to northeast wind this evening
becoming southeast by morning across all TAF sites. Winds will
become gusty in southwest ND Friday, including KDIK with gusts to
around 25 mph. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the
far west late tonight through Friday. Chances to slim at this time
to add a mention at KDIK.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302331
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

High pressure will continue to drop south from Canada across
central and eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, low pressure in the
lee of the northern Rockies will begin to push east late tonight
and could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm to far western
ND by morning. Only some minor updates early this evening for sky
cover with most areas cloud free. Updated latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening elements.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping
near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the
Rockies. Weak cyclonic flow remains over our area resulting in
some low level convective clouds over portions of the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

For tonight, clouds should quickly erode this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Aforementioned surface high settles in
over the area resulting in a relatively chilly night, with most
locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper
ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western
North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge
pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations
will be a tad below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridge axis passes over the area early Saturday bringing
warmer temperatures. Wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, particularly over northern and
western locations.

West/southwesterly flow sets up for the upcoming week with a
variety of weak disturbances moving through. This will bring a
near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at all taf
sites. Generally a light north to northeast wind this evening
becoming southeast by morning across all TAF sites. Winds will
become gusty in southwest ND Friday, including KDIK with gusts to
around 25 mph. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the
far west late tonight through Friday. Chances to slim at this time
to add a mention at KDIK.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 302043
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front dropping through the
upper midwest into the central plains with high pressure dropping
near the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border into North Dakota. Upper
level analysis places low near James Bay with ridge over the
Rockies. Weak cyclonic flow remains over our area resulting in
some low level convective clouds over portions of the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

For tonight, clouds should quickly erode this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. Aforementioned surface high settles in
over the area resulting in a relatively chilly night, with most
locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

On Friday, a short wave gradually makes its way through the upper
ridge bringing low thunderstorm chances to portions of western
North Dakota. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as upper ridge
pushes a bit towards the east, though readings over most locations
will be a tad below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Upper ridge axis passes over the area early Saturday bringing
warmer temperatures. Wave moving in behind the ridge will bring
shower/thunderstorm chances, particularly over northern and
western locations.

West/southwesterly flow sets up for the upcoming week with a
variety of weak disturbances moving through. This will bring a
near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Localized MVFR cigs will continue over southwest and portions of
far north central North Dakota into early this afternoon, though
will continue to gradually improve. VFR conditions are then
expected through the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will continue.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302028
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Impacts will be minimal with limited concerns. 12Z model guidance
all in good agreement and will use a blend for details. High
pressure will be propagating across the region through the period.
Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar
and approaching high pressure. This will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight with min temps likely in the mid 40s.
Next shift will need to monitor for fog potential...although short
nights should limit this potential. On Friday...light winds and
weak mixing...but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low-
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday Night-Sunday...The influence of high pressure will
dominate for Saturday corresponding with only light south to
southeast winds and temps that will rebound to near average values
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. On Sunday an upper short wave
ridge will only slowly break down and allow a surface low over
Montana to make slow progress to the east. As it does so however,
a tightening gradient will boost wind speeds toward 15 kts,
especially along and east of the Red River valley.

Monday-Thursday...Long wave upper level trough over the Canadian
west will be in place during extended period next week as the
northern plains ridge flattens, yielding a zonal flow regime.

This will favor periodic chances for thunderstorms, reflected in the
the gridded forecasts with chc pops through the whole time frame.
Temperatures will be fairly steady and near seasonal averages with
highs in the low to mid eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Clouds will remain through the afternoon hours with clearing by
late afternoon or early evening. CIGS are fluctuating between MVFR
and VFR...and expect this fluctuation to continue through mid-
afternoon...but with a gradual improving trend. Gusty north winds
will subside this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 302028
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Impacts will be minimal with limited concerns. 12Z model guidance
all in good agreement and will use a blend for details. High
pressure will be propagating across the region through the period.
Clouds and winds will dissipate this evening with loss of solar
and approaching high pressure. This will lead to ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight with min temps likely in the mid 40s.
Next shift will need to monitor for fog potential...although short
nights should limit this potential. On Friday...light winds and
weak mixing...but full solar should expect Max Temps in the low-
mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday Night-Sunday...The influence of high pressure will
dominate for Saturday corresponding with only light south to
southeast winds and temps that will rebound to near average values
in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. On Sunday an upper short wave
ridge will only slowly break down and allow a surface low over
Montana to make slow progress to the east. As it does so however,
a tightening gradient will boost wind speeds toward 15 kts,
especially along and east of the Red River valley.

Monday-Thursday...Long wave upper level trough over the Canadian
west will be in place during extended period next week as the
northern plains ridge flattens, yielding a zonal flow regime.

This will favor periodic chances for thunderstorms, reflected in the
the gridded forecasts with chc pops through the whole time frame.
Temperatures will be fairly steady and near seasonal averages with
highs in the low to mid eighties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Clouds will remain through the afternoon hours with clearing by
late afternoon or early evening. CIGS are fluctuating between MVFR
and VFR...and expect this fluctuation to continue through mid-
afternoon...but with a gradual improving trend. Gusty north winds
will subside this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Low clouds continue to gradually dissipate over the area.
Otherwise, quiet weather remains.

UPDATE Issued at 842 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Low clouds continue to linger over the area in the wake of a cold
front that passed through overnight. For mid-morning update have
increased cloud cover over the area to address this, though expect
the clouds to deteriorate later this morning into mid-day. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

No changes to the going forecast as all is on target.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over
southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across
northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from
near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes. Low level cold air
advection behind the front will continue through mid morning.
With the rain showers that occurred Wednesday afternoon and
evening across the southwest and south central, patchy fog and or
a brief period of stratus possible early this morning. Otherwise,
a mid to upper level shortwave ridge stretching from north central
Montana into northern Saskatchewan will produce subsidence across
western and central ND today resulting in plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s north to
mid 70s southwest.

For tonight, the aforementioned ridge shifts into western ND with
low level winds turning southeast then south. Increasing moisture
advection will occur especially in far western ND overnight with
850mb winds between 20kt and 30kt. Nsharp soundings indicate that
isolated elevated convection possible from Bowman to Beach 06z-12z
possible as most unstable cape increases to between 400 and 700 j/kg.
0-6km bulk shear is forecast at around 30kt Thus not expecting any
severe thunderstorms at this time. The rest of western and
central ND will remain either along or east of the ridge resulting
in dry conditions with lows in the upper 40s central to mid 50s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A steady low level southerly flow with with several weak
shortwaves embedded within a westerly flow aloft will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis
Friday through Wednesday. the coolest day will be Friday with
highs in the 70s, followed by the 80s Saturday through Wednesday.
With dewpoints rising into the 50s and lower 60s, it will be humid
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Localized MVFR cigs will continue over southwest and portions of
far north central North Dakota into early this afternoon, though
will continue to gradually improve. VFR conditions are then
expected through the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM/KS
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301718
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1218 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Mostly cloudy conditions remain across a majority of the region
with cold temps aloft leading to low convective temps. Adjusted
sky conditions for mostly cloudy into the mid-late afternoon
hours...with clearing expected with loss of solar. Also lowered
Max Temps a bit considering the increase in expected cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Clouds will remain through the afternoon hours with clearing by
late afternoon or early evening. CIGS are fluctuating between MVFR
and VFR...and expect this fluctuation to continue through mid-
afternoon...but with a gradual improving trend. Gusty north winds
will subside this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301718
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1218 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Mostly cloudy conditions remain across a majority of the region
with cold temps aloft leading to low convective temps. Adjusted
sky conditions for mostly cloudy into the mid-late afternoon
hours...with clearing expected with loss of solar. Also lowered
Max Temps a bit considering the increase in expected cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Clouds will remain through the afternoon hours with clearing by
late afternoon or early evening. CIGS are fluctuating between MVFR
and VFR...and expect this fluctuation to continue through mid-
afternoon...but with a gradual improving trend. Gusty north winds
will subside this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301500
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Focus in the short term has been on cloud cover with low clouds
over the Red River Valley. Anticipate that clouds will continue to
lift and diminish through the morning and early afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Showers have developed further west into Richland county, so
included some POPs in a far south a bit longer this morning.
Should continue to dry out after about 14Z or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Some IFR cigs at KGFK and KTVF have been in and out for the past
hour or so. These should become VFR by 14Z or so. As mid level
clouds clear out this morning there could be some cu develop by
afternoon, particularly over the eastern TAF sites. Think that
any ceilings will remain above 3500 ft and VFR conditions will
continue. North winds will gust above 20 kts for a while during
the late morning and afternoon. Winds and cloud cover will
decrease this evening as high pressure builds into the area. The
light winds makes fog formation a possibility at the tail end of
the period, but too soon to tell exactly where and will leave out
of the TAFs for now.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JR
JR LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301343
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
843 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Low clouds continue to linger over the area in the wake of a cold
front that passed through overnight. For mid-morning update have
increased cloud cover over the area to address this, though expect
the clouds to deteriorate later this morning into mid-day. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

No changes to the going forecast as all is on target.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over
southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across
northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from
near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes. Low level cold air
advection behind the front will continue through mid morning.
With the rain showers that occurred Wednesday afternoon and
evening across the southwest and south central, patchy fog and or
a brief period of stratus possible early this morning. Otherwise,
a mid to upper level shortwave ridge stretching from north central
Montana into northern Saskatchewan will produce subsidence across
western and central ND today resulting in plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s north to
mid 70s southwest.

For tonight, the aforementioned ridge shifts into western ND with
low level winds turning southeast then south. Increasing moisture
advection will occur especially in far western ND overnight with
850mb winds between 20kt and 30kt. Nsharp soundings indicate that
isolated elevated convection possible from Bowman to Beach 06z-12z
possible as most unstable cape increases to between 400 and 700 j/kg.
0-6km bulk shear is forecast at around 30kt Thus not expecting any
severe thunderstorms at this time. The rest of western and
central ND will remain either along or east of the ridge resulting
in dry conditions with lows in the upper 40s central to mid 50s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A steady low level southerly flow with with several weak
shortwaves embedded within a westerly flow aloft will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis
Friday through Wednesday. the coolest day will be Friday with
highs in the 70s, followed by the 80s Saturday through Wednesday.
With dewpoints rising into the 50s and lower 60s, it will be humid
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest satellite and surface observations suggest some potential for
lifr cigs at KISN for a couple hours beyond 12z Thursday, however
confidence not high enough for a predominate group. Thus will use a
tempo lifr cig group to cover the expected trends. Otherwise sct to
bkn low vfr cigs will lift through the morning at all remaining
terminals with SKC becoming the dominate weather through 12z
Friday.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM/KS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301154
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Showers have developed further west into Richland county, so
included some POPs in a far south a bit longer this morning.
Should continue to dry out after about 14Z or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Some IFR cigs at KGFK and KTVF have been in and out for the past
hour or so. These should become VFR by 14Z or so. As mid level
clouds clear out this morning there could be some cu develop by
afternoon, particularly over the eastern TAF sites. Think that
any ceilings will remain above 3500 ft and VFR conditions will
continue. North winds will gust above 20 kts for a while during
the late morning and afternoon. Winds and cloud cover will
decrease this evening as high pressure builds into the area. The
light winds makes fog formation a possibility at the tail end of
the period, but too soon to tell exactly where and will leave out
of the TAFs for now.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301123
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

No changes to the going forecast as all is on target.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over
southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across
northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from
near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes. Low level cold air
advection behind the front will continue through mid morning.
With the rain showers that occurred Wednesday afternoon and
evening across the southwest and south central, patchy fog and or
a brief period of stratus possible early this morning. Otherwise,
a mid to upper level shortwave ridge stretching from north central
Montana into northern Saskatchewan will produce subsidence across
western and central ND today resulting in plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s north to
mid 70s southwest.

For tonight, the aforementioned ridge shifts into western ND with
low level winds turning southeast then south. Increasing moisture
advection will occur especially in far western ND overnight with
850mb winds between 20kt and 30kt. Nsharp soundings indicate that
isolated elevated convection possible from Bowman to Beach 06z-12z
possible as most unstable cape increases to between 400 and 700 j/kg.
0-6km bulk shear is forecast at around 30kt Thus not expecting any
severe thunderstorms at this time. The rest of western and
central ND will remain either along or east of the ridge resulting
in dry conditions with lows in the upper 40s central to mid 50s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A steady low level southerly flow with with several weak
shortwaves embedded within a westerly flow aloft will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis
Friday through Wednesday. the coolest day will be Friday with
highs in the 70s, followed by the 80s Saturday through Wednesday.
With dewpoints rising into the 50s and lower 60s, it will be humid
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest satellite and surface observations suggest some potential for
lifr cigs at KISN for a couple hours beyond 12z Thursday, however
confidence not high enough for a predominate group. Thus will use a
tempo lifr cig group to cover the expected trends. Otherwise sct to
bkn low vfr cigs will lift through the morning at all remaining
terminals with SKC becoming the dominate weather through 12z
Friday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM/KS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300857
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
357 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest water vapor imagery depicts an upper low circulating over
southern Hudson bay with an attending trough swinging across
northern and eastern ND. A surface cold front was located from
near Hettinger to Linton and east to Oakes. Low level cold air
advection behind the front will continue through mid morning.
With the rain showers that occurred Wednesday afternoon and
evening across the southwest and south central, patchy fog and or
a brief period of stratus possible early this morning. Otherwise,
a mid to upper level shortwave ridge stretching from north central
Montana into northern Saskatchewan will produce subsidence across
western and central ND today resulting in plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s north to
mid 70s southwest.

For tonight, the aforementioned ridge shifts into western ND with
low level winds turning southeast then south. Increasing moisture
advection will occur especially in far western ND overnight with
850mb winds between 20kt and 30kt. Nsharp soundings indicate that
isolated elevated convection possible from Bowman to Beach 06z-12z
possible as most unstable cape increases to between 400 and 700 j/kg.
0-6km bulk shear is forecast at around 30kt Thus not expecting any
severe thunderstorms at this time. The rest of western and
central ND will remain either along or east of the ridge resulting
in dry conditions with lows in the upper 40s central to mid 50s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A steady low level southerly flow with with several weak
shortwaves embedded within a westerly flow aloft will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis
Friday through Wednesday. the coolest day will be Friday with
highs in the 70s, followed by the 80s Saturday through Wednesday.
With dewpoints rising into the 50s and lower 60s, it will be humid
at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A brief period of mvfr cigs with patchy fog at KISN/KDIK/KBIS
possible through 14z. Otherwise expect clearing conditions
at all terminals by mid to late morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM/KS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300844
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR thru the pd. High and mid level cloud cover will gradually
clear out later tonight into Thursday morning. Though some CU very
possible in the midday and aftn. North winds 12 to 22 kts
Thursday.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300844
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
344 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR thru the pd. High and mid level cloud cover will gradually
clear out later tonight into Thursday morning. Though some CU very
possible in the midday and aftn. North winds 12 to 22 kts
Thursday.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Hoppes
AVIATION...Riddle




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300502
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Latest local radar shows weakening showers southeast of Rugby to
just north of Jamestown. Have kept an isolated shower mention in
the James River Valley next few hours to account for this. These
showers are associated with a cold front which is oriented
southwest to northeast, from near Bowman northeast to Carrington.
Behind the front, a couple showers north of the border should
continue to dissipate with time. Have added patchy to areas of
fog south central and southwest per latest experimental HRRR.
Concur with this idea with the showers that fell across this area
earlier today. The HRRR also maintains the idea of stratus forming
overnight in central ND then siding into the southwest by 12z-14z.

UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Evening convection has begun to diminish quickly over western and
south central ND. May be a little thunder yet over southern Wells
into Kidder and Stutsman counties but this is also diminishing. A
little stronger convection remains over far southeast Saskatchewan
into far southeast Bottineau county near Willow City. This
convection is also expected to diminish through the late evening
hours.

A cold front will continue to drop south through the forecast area
tonight. The 30 Jun 00 UTC NAM, RAP and HRRR indicate at least
some light shower activity accompanying the front as it pushes
through the southern half of ND. They also indicate some low level
moisture convergence mainly over southwest ND. The HRRR continues
to develop an area of mvfr-ifr cigs over the south central and
southwest late tonight into early Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings do indicate some low level moisture but for now will
just keep sky cover up a bit over this area compared to points
north which should clear out late tonight. Will let the overnight
shift contemplate a mention of stratus in the KDIK and possibly
KBIS taf with the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms continue to drop south across the northern
tier counties, ahead of a cold front. Scattered thunderstorms also
continue over portions of the south central into the James River
Valley in an area of greater instability and bulk shear. However
the atmosphere will continue to stabilize this evening and the
threat of stronger to possibly severe storms continues to
diminish. With scattered convection across the north central and
into northwest ND, have added a slight chance of thunder to the
west through the evening hours. Slight chance to chance pops
remain over the south central through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 447 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Quick update mainly for thunderstorm chances based on latest
radar. Still some outflow boundary interactions around Bismarck
with an area of moderately unstable air just to the north of
Bismarck. Did have a local gust to 51 knots at the Mandan airport
with the earlier storm so an isolated severe wind or hail report
is possible, but think most storms will remain below severe
levels. Also adjusted pops slightly for convection dropping south
from Canada into the northern tier counties. Updated text products
out shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near
the international border with low off towards northeastern
Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with
low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our
area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced
instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. So far
reports have been sub-severe hail though recently some higher wind
reports have come in.

Expect aforementioned showers and storms to continue to shift to
the southeast as short wave continues to slide through. Another
round of showers and storms will be possible as the front slowly
slides through, though these should remain tame, especially over
the north where instability is lower and shear is weak.

On Thursday...quiet weather is expected behind the front. Cooler
airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Cooler temperatures remain into Friday with a warming trend
developing into the holiday weekend bringing near to above
average temperatures going into next week. Westerly upper level
flow develops with a variety of short waves moving through
bringing a near daily chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Mvfr cigs with patchy fog expected to develop at KISN/KDIK/KBIS
between 10z and 14z, although indications are it could linger at
KDIK until possibly 19z before clearing. Otherwise cigs at KMOT
and KJMS look to remain sct, with clearing at all terminals by
early afternoon at the latest.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300452
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A few remaining showers at 0430 UTC that should continue to slowly
dissipate. Otherwise mid level cloud cover with front.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The main forecast challenge will be thunderstorm chances into
tonight. As of 230 pm a line of showers and thunderstorms extended
along the Canadian border and was moving ESE. Other storms had
fired around the KJMS area which were moving a little more SE.
The storms just to the north of the Canadian border have looked
severe at times, but as they have moved toward the border they
have weakened. Even so this line will bear watching late this
afternoon into the early evening as it moves further into the
northern FA. Will basically keep likely pcpn chances near this
boundary as it does move southward tonight. With loss of heating
by mid evening, the thunder component should begin to weaken, so
by midnight or after it should mainly be showers. Any pcpn should
be out of the southern FA by Thursday morning as sfc high pressure
builds in later in the day. Models differ a little on the strength
of the north winds Thu as the high builds in, some a little
stronger than others. Will keep with the idea of 10 to 15 or 10 to
20 mph thru the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Surface High pressure continues to push down across the fa from
central Manitoba through Thursday night and Friday... with the area
remaining under a dry northerly blayer flow. corresponding late week
temperatures should drop well below seasonal normals from Thursday
into Thursday night... and start to slowly climb back towards normal
during the coming holiday weekend.

Saturday into Monday... Though southerly return flow develops back
into the area from late Friday into Saturday... the 12z model suite
is a bit slower to develop deep convection into the Red River Basin
until late in the day on Saturday. The risk for widespread rain or
severe weather in the Northern Plains currently appears low for the
holiday weekend ...as models instead favor developing a frontal
boundary into the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley. This keeps low
level jet energy and any deep moisture surge blocked to the south.

There is still a risk for somewhat unsettled weather ...with
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the holiday weekend into
the early part of next week. Models transition from a fairly flat H5
flow across the Pac Northwest on the weekend... into a higher
amplitude west coast trof and central plains ridge into the next
week. With that... the increasing energy aloft could bring more
widespread rain and a risk for strong to severe storms by the
middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR thru the pd. High and mid level cloud cover will gradually
clear out later tonight into Thursday morning. Though some CU very
possible in the midday and aftn. North winds 12 to 22 kts
Thursday.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Riddle




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