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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR PEMBINA TO NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO
DICKINSON. STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG THE FRONT HAD
DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST AS FAR AS EDDY AND NEAR FOSTER COUNTY. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RES MODELS HINT AT MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT EACH HOUR`S RUN DIFFERS ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST IT
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED A
TONGUE OF 7 C/KM EXTENDING FROM NEAR HETTINGER TO EDDY/FOSTER
COUNTY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS REACHING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
RAISED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN JAMES BASIN FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND
SEVERAL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SCT TSRA MAY AFFECT THE KJMS TAF SITE THROUGH 11Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCTS AT KISN AND KDIK AROUND 09-11Z WITH CONVECTION
FROM MONTANA EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
SUNRISE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. LATER SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS/CIGS. SHOWERS ENDING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING AROUND 00Z SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



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000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050443
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED AT GFK AND FAR 06-09Z. FARTHER EAST
UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW WEAKENING TRENDS AFT 08Z OR SO.
WILL SEE MORE CHANCES AS COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH TOMORROW.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF STRONGER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 050243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 050243
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CELLS AT THIS POINT REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND BEST CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. FARTHER SOUTH NOTHING HAPPENING HOWEVER WITH
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY PULL
POPS AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ALSO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AND LOWER LEVELS COOL. FOR
EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO CURRENT THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING LINE...SO EXPECT THE
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALSO...A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO
RANDOMLY POP UP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE NEAR THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. ONE TO THE EAST OF JAMESTOWN HAS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL...BUT SO FAR HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE. OFF TO THE FAR
NORTHWEST...STORMS HAVE BEEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST SO EXPECT TO BE
TRIMMING OFF THE BACK SIDE OF THE WATCH SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCT TSRA...SOME WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LCL MVFR
VIS/CIGS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH MID EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
SHRA/TSRA STILL AN HOUR OR TWO FROM OUR NW/W FA UNLESS SOMETHING
DEVELOPS IN THE MEAN TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VSBY IN K GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH BACK EDGE OF K SHIELD FROM
VISIBLE IMAGERY NOW EAST OF THE VALLEY. UPSTREAM CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING CONVECTION REMAINS VFR HOWEVER COULD SEE VSBY
DROP TO MVFR RANGES IN STRONGER STORMS. BEST T COVERAGE WILL BE IN
THE DVL AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY FARTHER EAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. WITH SPOTTY NATURE MENTIONED VCTS AT
FAR/GFK IN THE 10-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FPR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES...HOW SEVERE...AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA CURRENTLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP OVER
THE CWA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW IN EASTERN MT...AND THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN HAS FINALLY STARTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM THE SMOKE ALTHOUGH THE
EASTERN CWA IS STILL REPORTING A LOT OF REDUCED VIS. EVEN WITH THE
SMOKE...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE 80S...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
ALREADY TOPPING 2000 J/KG IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. STORMS
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN NORTHEASTERN MT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SFC LOW AND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE EMC WRF HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
APPROACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00 TO 02Z OR SO. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE HRRR IS PERSISTING ON BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF ND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND MOVING
IT EAST...BUT CU FIELD IS MOSTLY SOUTH OTHER THAN SOME STREETS
STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED AND THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN LOW
AND COLD FRONT. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CWA BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KTS...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A BRIEF
PERIOD LATER TONIGHT WHERE THEY GET UP TO AROUND 40KTS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA BEFORE THE INSTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A SEVERE MENTION FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND WESTWARD FOR THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
OTHERS MAINTAIN SOME PRECIP OVER MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
SUNDAY AM. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MOSTLY THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF LULL BEFORE
STORMS REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES BY SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS INTO
MONTANA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE
CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN IF WE WILL GET
SOME STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO COINCIDE
WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STILL...THERE
IS A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY UNSTABLE AIR OF OVER 2000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR OF 30 KTS
ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...SO SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE. INCLUDED A SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE REINFORCING SOME HIGH QPF VALUES...ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE TRENDING SOUTH OUT OF THE CWA. KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEAVY
RAIN THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WILL REEVALUATE IF WE
GET A ROUND TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
OVER THE SAME AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THINK IT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED SO
KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL WITH GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WITH TUESDAY RECOVERING INTO THE 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WE
CAN EXPECT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WARMER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS... AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FPR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY THEN
LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT WARMER STILL AND OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE
SOUTHERWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE.
INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HIGH LCLS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. EXPECT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MERGE
INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE TONIGHT...THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST...WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF THUNDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST...THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MENTION
SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MILD AND STORMY WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS NORTH
DAKOTA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN
FLOW KICKS RIGHT BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN WARM UP WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MANY PROGRESSIVE WAVES BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041821
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041821
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041821
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041821
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE FROM DISTANT FIRES WILL PARTIALLY
DISPERSE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BLAYER FLOW...WITH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGHHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
NORTHEASTERN ND FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND ARE POSSIBLE ALG THE RRV AND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ML CAPES ARE
CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
DIMINISHING CIN AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES. LATEST ITERATION OF
THE HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MID TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT
WITH CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA
MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE OVER
THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE/HAZE HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT TODAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO BE ABLE
TO START OUT ALL TAF SITES WITH P6SM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LOW VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041802
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT MORE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE RATHER
SCATTERED SO KEPT THE POPS CHANCE FOR NOW. SOME SMOKE SHOULD HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER SO KEPT A PATCHY MENTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AFTER 18Z. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME
VARIATION TO HOW CONVECTION COMING IN TONIGHT PLAYS OUT...SO WILL
KEEP IT HIGH CHANCE BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP
LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE IN THE NORTHERN CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK ALG AND SOUTH OF A BDE- VWU- FAR- JMS LINE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENLY FAIR SKIES
BEHIND THE SURFACE COOL FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES INTO SOUTHERN RRV BRIEFLY THIS EARLY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FA
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT...MID LVL CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041458
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. COLD FRONT FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS
THEN NORTHWEST NORTH CENTRAL LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM KEEPS ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN. LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ONE WEAK SAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY
WITH NOTHING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM TO SPARK CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST ITERATION OF THE HRRR ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUS RUNS.

OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR TRIES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION HERE AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BUT NEVER GETS GOING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING AT JMS
INDICATES LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAM MODELS STILL
ARE BREAKING OUT SOME STORMS WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. BEFORE THAT KEPT IN THE AREAS OF SMOKE MENTION FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AS VIS CONTINUE TO BE REDUCED. THINK THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041124
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THUS FAR HIGH RES MODELS HAVE OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WITH NO
RETURNS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON RADAR AT THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY AM FORECAST. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 11Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. SOME FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE KBIS AND
KJMS VSBYS TO 1SM AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ASOS CIG INDICATOR
DETECTING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION
INVERSION THAT HAS SET UP SHOULD KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND 16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT
KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT
KMOT LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040933
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE THIS MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE BORDER OF
ALBERTA/SASK/MT IN THE FORM OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ONLY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WAS OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOW DISCOUNTED THIS THREAT
FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW DEPICTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS RAISED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS AREA FROM A
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...THUS HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR
HAVRE MONTANA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE
THE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
IT WOULD EXTEND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO BOWMAN...AND REACHING
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
DEVELOP PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD AND ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...AND
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE STRONGER FORCING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE IS MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS
THINKING THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WOULD
HAVE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING AND PERHAPS A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COUPLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION (RER) OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPAWN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST
QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
AND STRONG PVA ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ND MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S...WARMING UP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW.

ANOTHER JET STREAK DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF NORTH DAKOTA...TRIGGERING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDERNEATH THE
RER OF THE UPPER JET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY QUIETER PERIOD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A QUASI
ZONAL/WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER IN THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040830
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SEVERE T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
FEATURES.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LEAD
SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND THEN MOVE INTO THIS AREA. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN ISOLD/SCATTERED. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MLCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (TO AROUND 30
KNOTS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IN
CANADA APPROACHES. THIS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD
TO ORGANIZED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN
THREATS.

THE SURFACE SMOKE REDUCING VSBY SHOULD DISPERSE A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ECMWF/GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND LIKEWISE ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
AN UPPER WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM). THE
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOODING) POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN QUESTION STILL
REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS JUST A MATTER HOW
QUICKLY THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST (WILL IT REMAIN
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR?). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SPC UPGRADE THE MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK EVENTUALLY.
STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES ANY
TRAINING TYPE STORMS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...WILL BE VERY CONCERNED FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THAT
COULD OCCUR TOWARD MONDAY MORNING IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL INVADE THE REGION LEADING TO MAX
TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70F. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL AGREE ON STARTING OUT
EXTENDED PERIOD AS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPLIT FLOW RULES AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ECMWF REMAINS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN TIMING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION. BLENDING PROTOCOLS YIELD HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING
THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUCCEEDING EARLY WEEK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE TOWARD AVERAGE VALUES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040559
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE STILL REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES WEST
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES GREATLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NOTHING YET DETECTED ON SATELLITE OR RADARS. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM SPC PAGE INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THUS
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040559
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE STILL REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES WEST
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES GREATLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NOTHING YET DETECTED ON SATELLITE OR RADARS. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM SPC PAGE INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THUS
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040559
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE STILL REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES WEST
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES GREATLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NOTHING YET DETECTED ON SATELLITE OR RADARS. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM SPC PAGE INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THUS
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040559
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE STILL REDUCING VISIBILITIES...WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES WEST
AND LOWER VISIBILITIES EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VISIBILITIES GREATLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...NOTHING YET DETECTED ON SATELLITE OR RADARS. LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM SPC PAGE INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THUS
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES HAS KEPT A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS TAF SITES AT 05Z. SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES. ASOS CIG INDICATOR DETECTING SMOKE AS A
CLOUD LAYER IN SOME AREAS. THE RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP SHOULD
KEEP THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTENT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER TODAY...AROUND
16Z...EXPECTING VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ALL TAF SITES. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT KISN AND KMOT LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINTAINED HAZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT BJI. COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE MID
MORNING WHEN MIXING INCREASES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE
SPOTTY SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040230
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040217
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NOTHING TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WITH A RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP THE SMOKE LAYER
WILL MOVE LOWER AND BECOME MORE DENSE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 3
MILES OR BELOW KMOT-KBIS-KJMS AND 3 TO 5 MILES KISN- KDIK THROUGH
14Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040217
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ADDED SMOKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 9 PM CDT OBSERVATIONS FROM
DICKINSON AND HETTINGER HAVE 5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE AND HAZE.
APPEARS THE CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL END
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS  EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NOTHING TO MOVE THE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. WITH A RADIATION INVERSION SETTING UP THE SMOKE LAYER
WILL MOVE LOWER AND BECOME MORE DENSE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 3
MILES OR BELOW KMOT-KBIS-KJMS AND 3 TO 5 MILES KISN- KDIK THROUGH
14Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THAT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 032334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 032334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

K REDUCING VSBY TO SOME EXTENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE (BJI)
LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
THIN SMOKE ON SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE DAY. NO CIGS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032331
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONE OR TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEWHOURS
THIS EVENING WEST CENTRAL. CURRENTLY THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING.
RAISED POPS WEST CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION THIS EVENING INCLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEST AND SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES. SMOKE LAYER
CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL IMPACTKMOT-
KBIS-KJMS TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST TONIGHT BUT TO
RANDOM AND ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOW VFR OUTSIDE
OF THE SMOKE AREA KISN-KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 032056
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AND DROPPING
THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME.
THERE WERE A COUPLE SHOWERS NOTED DURING THE PAST HOUR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DID KEEP A MENTION OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD BE SOLELY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...BUT NO SHEAR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES. ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MONTANA SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ALOFT. THUS AN ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. KEEPING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...AND
OVERNIGHT CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. DID
KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
IMPROVEMENTS.

ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MU CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING
TO 20-30 KNOTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY
ON SATURDAY...BUT NO SEVER WORDING YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/SREF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...SPAWNING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUNDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER QUIET UNTIL
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR
LOWS...THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z
ISSUANCE. WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TAF PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN
SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SMOKE...FOG
POTENTIAL AND TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT.
OVERALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE USE FCST
BLEND (SUPERBLEND) FOR TIMING FRONT END OF CONVECTION (MAIN EVENT
WILL BE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SEE BELOW).

TONIGHT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CLAM WINDS OVER CNTRL ND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP SMOKE THAT SUBSIDENCE HAS FORCED TO THE SFC.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF HAZY AND SMOKY CONDS WILL CONTINUE. QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL FORM AS WELL. FOG TOOL DID NOT PRODUCE
MUCH SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT DESPITE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S
AND LIGHT WINDS...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR.

FOURTH OF JULY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPEAR CLOUDY AS ELEVATED
SMOKE LINGERS. THE SMOKE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY EVENING SKY COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...EVEN SOONER IF ANY TS BLOWOFF MOVES IN FROM TS THAT
WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA. FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE DAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH THE SMOKE FILTERING THE SUN AS IT HAS
MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN OPEN GOLF WILL HELP PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TOMORROW NIGHT...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CWA AROUND 06Z
AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY BY ABOUT 12Z. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD BEGIN SPREADING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY
AS 06Z TO 09Z...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN ONLY 15 KT TO 25 KTS...AND THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ND...LINING UP WITH SPC
MARGINAL RISK AREA. GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN SOLUTIONS FOR 06Z
TO 12Z AND HAVE USED SUPERBLEND FOR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...MAIN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO
NW MINNESOTA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING BEHIND
THE FRONT...ONLY 25 KT TO 35 KT IN THE AREA OF VERY HIGH CAPES ON
THE ORDER OF 2K TO 3K J/KG (POSSIBLE) DEPENDING ON DEW POINTS. THE
NAM HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH DEW POINT VALUES. TODAY DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S H850 FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...SO REALIZING THESE CAPE VALUES
DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION NOR DO THE HIGHER NAM DEW POINT
VALUES. THE BIGGEST FACTOR WILL BE THE SHEAR...WHERE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH. SHOULD HIGHER SHEAR MOVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BNDRY
SUN AFTN...MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST THROUGH EARLY MON
MORNING. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SINK INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL RESET TO NW FLOW PATTERN AND COLD BRING BACK
SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM FIRES IN NRN SASK/ALBERTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STARTING OUT THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. BLENDED SOLUTION HAS FAIRLY HIGH POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF VARIOUS
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTENDED SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT BUT NO SHEAR
AND HARD TO FINE A SOURCE OF IGNITION WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
 IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTENDED SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT BUT NO SHEAR
AND HARD TO FINE A SOURCE OF IGNITION WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
 IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTENDED SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT BUT NO SHEAR
AND HARD TO FINE A SOURCE OF IGNITION WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
 IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031753
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
EXTENDED SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST. KEPT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS DECENT BUT NO SHEAR
AND HARD TO FINE A SOURCE OF IGNITION WITH ONE SHORTWAVE EXITING
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
 IN SMOKE. STILL MVFR AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
WITH NO LARGE SCALE AIRMASS CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TAF
PERIOD...KEPT A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN SOUTHERLY
ON SATURDAY...INCREASING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREVIOUS GRID UPDATES FOR AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE AS MOST OF THE CWA IS SEEING AROUND 3 SM IN HAZE
VSBY RIGHT NOW...WITH EXCEPTION OF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR WHERE PATCHY SMOKE IS THE WORDING. NO FCST UPDATES FOR
FIRST THREE PERIODS PLANNED AS THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT HAS BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. VIS
HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 1 AND 5SM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE LONGER. HAVE SOME TEMPO
IMPROVEMENT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK WE WILL NOT SEE 3-
5SM OR BETTER UNTIL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY MODELS HAVE SFC LEVEL SMOKE
HANGING AROUND UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP RESTRICTED
VIS GOING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND 18Z
OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION
RAIN OR CB IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN
CELLS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031455
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SMOKE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DO EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING. SPS
CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 16 UTC REGARDING SMOKE/VISIBILITY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND 18Z
OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION
RAIN OR CB IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN
CELLS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031448
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS FOR MORNING UPDATE CONCERNS SMOKE. ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS SMOKE IS NOW AT THE
SURFACE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND LIKELY CAUSING HEALTH
RELATED IRRITATIONS TO PEOPLE WITH THOSE SENSITIVITIES. CHANGED
GRIDS TO SPATIAL WORDING VICE PROBABILITY WORDING (DEFINITE TO
AREAS OF). CLEAR AREAS TODAY WILL STILL APPEAR "CLOUDY" SO WILL
CONTINUE TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE PUBLIC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND
18Z OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR CB
IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN CELLS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND
18Z OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR CB
IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN CELLS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND
18Z OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR CB
IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN CELLS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND
18Z OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR CB
IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN CELLS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

INCREASED THE SMOKE AND FOG WORDING THIS MORNING FOR THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE THE INHERITED GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH 00Z. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WAS REDUCING
VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES. THINKING IMPROVING VSBYS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BEGINNING AT KISN/KDIK AROUND
18Z OR SO. USED VERTICAL VSBY WORDING IN TAFS AT KBIS...KMOT...AND
KJMS WITH THOSE ASOS SITES SENSING SMOKE AS A CLOUD LAYER. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL NOT MENTION RAIN OR CB
IN TAFS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY RAIN CELLS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MOST OF THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION LIKELY MORE DUE TO
ACTUAL FOG THAN SMOKE...AT LEAST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW HERE AT
THE OFFICE. IN FACT...A FEW SITES ARE 1/4SM OR LESS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE ARE PAST SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FOG WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY
BE MINOR VSBY RESTRICTION DUE TO SMOKE TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON VERY
LOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG



000
FXUS63 KBIS 030900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE
AND CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE
HUDSON BAY REGION MOVED EAST OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA A COUPLE OF
HOURS AGO. WHEN THIS OCCURRED...SMOKE THAT CONTINUED TO PLAGUE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVED INTO THE JAMESTOWN AREA. MOST AREAS IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GENERALLY 2-5 MILES VISIBILITY IN SMOKE.

REGARDING THE SMOKE:
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM UPPER
LEVELS DOWN THROUGH LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO
THE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES REACHING THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY
IN RESPONSE. THINKING THIS WILL HELP CLEAR SMOKE OUT OF THE UPPER
AND MID LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST GRADUALLY TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SMOKE OUT OF LOWER LEVELS/SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS REGARDING SMOKE WITH TIME TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH DAKOTA. IN THE EAST HALF...MODELS
INDICATING DECENT CAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BULK SHEAR. IN THE
WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ND/SD INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE.
WEAK CAPE BUT BETTER BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAY HELP SUSTAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER OVERNIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SMOKE LIMITING INSOLATION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

STRONG/LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS THEN
FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES SATURDAY...OUR FLOW
ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. INCREASED WINDS A BIT FROM GUIDANCE AND ALSO NOTCHED TEMPS UP
A FEW DEGREES. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. ALSO...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE A DEPARTING
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE TRACKING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
NEAR THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LESSER CHANCES SOUTH
ALTHOUGH A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) PORTRAYED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z MAY NECESSITATE INCREASING POPS ALONG THE
LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTHWEST. ANY STRONG STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY ON IN THE
DAY AND SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY...A FEW 60S
NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER CAA. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UN-JULY-LIKE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THANKS
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. WARMER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES. HOWEVER MUCH UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. BISMARCK...MINOT...AND NOW JAMESTOWN ASOS SENSING THE SMOKE
LAYER AS A CLOUD LAYER. MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE THE SMOKE
REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR AND MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z.
VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ON FRIDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
KEEP SMOKE AWAY FROM THE SURFACE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030850
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THICKER SMOKE...CAUSING VSBY RESTRICTION 1SM-3SM...MOVING INTO
THE REGION. NOAA AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THICKER
SMOKE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPS AS A
RESULT...AND EXTENDED SMOKE IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY. HRRR
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL LOWER POPS TO
20% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.

SATURDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE DRY WEATHER AND WARMER...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SMOKE...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND
INSTABILITY VALUES (AND HOW QUICKLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION). MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER 60F
DEWPOINT VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (EVAPOTRANSPIRATION)...AND
WOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD STRONGER
(ORGANIZED) STORMS MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY
RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...AND STORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY. MORE DETAILS CAN BE ANALYZED ONCE THIS EVENT
GETS INTO THE CAM GUIDANCE TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER PATTERN DEPICTS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING CLOSE
TO CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ABSENCE OF ANY LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE PRODUCTS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF ZONAL FLOW FOR
NEXT WEEK. DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY WILL USHER IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR POISED TO KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE TUESDAY THE BEST
SHOT AT A TOTALLY DRY DAY BEFORE A SHORT WAVE (TIMED A BIT
DIFFERENTLY BY GFS/ECMWF) ENTERS THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEST ESTIMATE BRINGS RENEWED TSRA CHANCES TO FORECAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE AND LOWER VSBYS. THE MAIN
SITE AFFECTED WITH BE KDVL...AND WILL MONITOR OTHER SITES. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KT WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...DK




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