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000
FXUS63 KBIS 082131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
331 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
RIDGE RUNNING THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH LOW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHILE FAST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
START THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE REGION. LATER THIS
EVENING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT DEVELOPS RESULTING IN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS...BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW.

ON TUESDAY...STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP OVER THE
AREA WITH TEENS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. MOST AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW...BUT CHANCES
SWITCH TOWARDS RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AS WARMER AIR TRIES
TO WORK EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THESE WAVES APPROACH BRIEF PERIODS OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CLEARLY
SHOW A WARM LAYER ALOFT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO JUST
HOW WARM THIS LAYER IS AND HOW FAR EAST IT WILL PUSH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE BEST FORCING AND WARM LAYER
ALOFT. AS PRECIPITATION PUSHES FURTHER EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER AIR BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AND SHOULD TRANSITION OR
REMAIN ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY BE VERY STEEP AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
COULD MEAN VERY DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN -SN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS



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000
FXUS63 KFGF 082109
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONVECTIVE SHSN/SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALLEY WITH BRIEF VSBY DROP BLO 1 MILE IN STRONGER
SNOW BANDS. FEEL SHSN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE VSBY. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING TO 00Z WITH SCHOOL
ENDING AND LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. NEXT FGF TEAM CAN EVALUATE FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS. OTHERWISE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEARING SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH DIMINISHING WIND CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW COLD WE GET. WITH
W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE WARMEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. CLOUDS
HOLD LONGEST OVER THE FAR EAST BUT IF THEY DO CLEAR OUT COULD SEE
MINIMUMS APPROACHING 10 BELOW. WIND CHILLS APPROACH ADVISORY
LIMITS BUT CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL VALUES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY.

TUESDAY COLD BUT MORE TRANQUIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSES IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO FAR NE
TO TEENS IN THE WEST.

REGION REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NIGHT. ZONE OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LEAD TO BAND OF -SN DEVELOPING REACHING THE NW FA BY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
THE NE AGAIN THE COLDEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

AS BAND OF F-GEN FORCING AIDED BY UPPER JET MAXIMA SHIFTS SSE
WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND SPREADING SE GENERALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS TIME FEEL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE.

-SN WILL EXIT THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHC
-SN IN SE ND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT A 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 20 BELOW RANGE AND
HIGHS 15 TO 5 ABOVE...THE HIGHER TEMPS TO THE WEST AND LOWER VALUES
TO THE EAST. 500MB FLOW RELAXES SOME WITH A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE TROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WARMER AIR AND A CHC OF SNOW SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH COLD START TO
THE WEEKEND THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY 30
FOR MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 081844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 081844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 081844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 081844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

EVEN WITH EXPANDING BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED/EXTENDED POPS
WITH SHSN THROUGH THE VALLEY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHSN/SQUALLS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITHIN NARROW N-S ORIENTED 850MB
COLD POOL FROM VALLEY INTO E SD WITHIN ENHANCED ZONE OF DENDRITIC
LAYER RH. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS WITH SNOW SQUALLS AND BLSN IMPACTING GFK
AND FAR WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS...LIGHTER WINDS AT BJI...DVL AND
TVF WITH -SN THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. BLSN TO
TAPPER OFF IN THE VALLEY EARLY EVENING...GUIDANCE SCT OUT MVFR
DECK THIS EVENING ALSO...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT EXPECTING
CIGS TO SCT OR CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 081820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW SNOW CHANCES ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE NARROW BANDS
OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN -SN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 081820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW SNOW CHANCES ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE NARROW BANDS
OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN -SN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 081820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1220 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE ADDED SOME LOW SNOW CHANCES ALONG
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE NARROW BANDS
OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO STREAM THROUGH. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND
FORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS IN -SN. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081716
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1116 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ007-
     008-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 081553
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
953 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST OBSERVATIONS WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJMS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MVFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18Z MONDAY
THEN BECOME VFR. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT KJMS. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KBIS/KMOT...AND LOW VFR AT KISN/KDIK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION/VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK IN THE 09Z-12Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALTHOUGH WEB CAMS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD STILL GETTING STREAMER SHSN
WHICH LIMIT VSBY. WAITING TO SEE IF WINDS PICK BACK UP BUT FOR NOW
WILL LET ADVISORY RIDE AND REVISIT LATER THIS AM. ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT BUT NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 081346
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
746 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKY COVER TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJMS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MVFR CIGS AT KJMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 18Z MONDAY
THEN BECOME VFR. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT KJMS. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KBIS/KMOT...AND LOW VFR AT KISN/KDIK. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTION/VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED AT
KISN/KMOT/KDIK IN THE 09Z-12Z TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081252
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MANY OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SHOWING 1 SM OR LESS VIS...AND
WEB CAMS IN SOME SPOTS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO HAVE POOR CONDITIONS.
THE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
WEAKEN...BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE A WHILE LONGER AND WITH WINDS
STILL AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VIS ARE NOT
DOWN TO 1/4SM SO WILL LET THE BLIZZARD WARNING GO BUT HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. THE WEST HAS SEEN WINDS COME DOWN SO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY GO. THE EAST HAS THE SHELTER OF THE TREES SO VIS IS NOT
AS BAD AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VIS CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY BLOWING SNOW. CURRENTLY WORST
CONDITIONS ARE AT KFAR...WITH 2-5SM AT KGFK AND KBJI. VIS HAVE
COME UP TO VFR AT KDVL...ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL MVFR. MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME VIS
AROUND OR BELOW 1SM AT TIMES MAINLY AROUND KFAR. THINK THAT THE
BLOWING SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE...WITH VIS BACK UP AND MVFR
CIGS BY LATE MORNING. THINK THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME VFR CONDITIONS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE
30 KTS AT KGFK AND KFAR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-
     027-029-030-039-053-054.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR




000
FXUS63 KBIS 081031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 429 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE DIMNINISHED. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS VFR.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL FAVOR MVFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.
OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25KT AND GUSTS TO 35KT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ007-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 081001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SNOW SHOWERS...WIND...AND WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

STREAKS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH
POOR VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN VALLEY HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A SHARP DECREASE IN SNOW ACTIVITY BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO GET RID OF THE PRECIP ALL
NIGHT. WITH WINDS AND PERIODIC LOW VIS...WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINES
GOING THROUGH 12Z AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE
IF THEY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT.

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 36
KTS STILL GOING AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE 45 KTS AT 925MB WITH EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS AT 850MB. MIXING
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT...AROUND 900 TO 875MB.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING.
THINK WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS...THINK THAT ONCE
SNOW STOPS ACTIVELY FALLING THE VISIBILITY SITUATION WILL IMPROVE.
THUS...AS LONG AS SNOW SHOWERS STOP AS EXPECTED IT WILL MAINLY BE
A MATTER OF CHANGING OVER FROM WINTER HEADLINES TO WIND ADVISORY
AT 12Z. WILL MONITOR THE RADAR...OBS AND WEB CAMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE HOW TO ADJUST HEADLINES WHEN THE TIME
COMES BUT WILL KEEP THEM AS THEY ARE FOR NOW.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING LATELY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE THEY WILL
GET THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR MASS. WITH TEMPS DIPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...AND SOME WINDS
HANGING ON IN THAT AREA...WIND CHILLS COULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING CURRENT HEADLINES WILL WAIT TO
PUT OUT ANYTHING ADDITIONAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THICKNESS VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. A JET STREAK COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIFT
AND CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SNOW IS LESS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE JET STREAK WILL HAVE MOVED OFF BY THEN SO WENT WITH THE
LOWER BLENDED POPS INSTEAD OF THE VERY WET NAM. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER AIR PATTERN WAS
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST. PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THEN
THE ECMWF. ALSO THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER AND THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO
MODELS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR THU. HIGHS WERE
DECREASED TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ON FRI...DECREASED FIVE TO SIX
DEGREES ON SAT AND INCREASED ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NDZ007-016-027-029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001-
     002-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 080934
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS VFR.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL FAVOR MVFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.
OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25KT AND GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080934
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SURROUNDING THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY MORNING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST CENTRAL. A DRY DAY
AHEAD...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PARALLEL THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH A COMPENSATORY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE...BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT COMING THROUGH DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE TONIGHT RESULTING IN WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL PER H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES PER GFS ALSO SHOW VERY WEAK UPGLIDE/VERTICAL
MOTION AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE THETA SURFACES.
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPSTREAM IS MOSTLY CHANNELED AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HENCE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW TONIGHT WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. THE SREF/NAM SEEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS APPEAR SPLIT ON
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OR NO PRECIPITATION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WOULD BE MINOR WITH A COUPLE OF TENTHS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF AROUND
A HALF INCH SHOWS UP JUST NORTHWEST OF WILLISTON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DO NOT SEE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NORTH AMERICAN H500 FLOW REGIME HAS A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A HEALTHY H500 RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY AS A FAIRLY STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE BUT
THIS WEAK ENERGY WILL FLOW PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH
THE WARM AIR WEST AND COLD AIR WEST. HAVE REFRAINED FROM
MENTIONING FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AS THE BEST PRECIP TYPES
SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT TO
LIMIT SUPER COOLED WATER.

BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 POPS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
MOVES EAST A BIT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE H500 RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE EAST.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REFLECT THIS FLOW. HIGHS INTO THE
40S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BUT ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO EAST TO THE 20S WEST UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MILDER AIR TO
THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. KJMS WILL REMAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL 17Z MONDAY...WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS VFR.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL FAVOR MVFR AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.
OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS THROUGH 21Z MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25KT AND GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ003-004-011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 080533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A CLEAR SKY WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CENTRAL...WITH KMOT/KBIS ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SOLID OVERCAST SKY EXISTS FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AND INTO
HARVEY...JAMESTOWN...AND OAKES. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY 07Z- 08Z...WHICH
WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WINDY CENTRAL...HENCE
THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
30 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING
IN THE EAST CENTRAL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT. KBIS
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-13Z MONDAY...AND KJMS UNTIL
17Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KMOT/KBIS UNTIL
12Z MONDAY...AND AT KJMS UNTIL 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A CLEAR SKY WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CENTRAL...WITH KMOT/KBIS ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SOLID OVERCAST SKY EXISTS FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AND INTO
HARVEY...JAMESTOWN...AND OAKES. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY 07Z- 08Z...WHICH
WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WINDY CENTRAL...HENCE
THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
30 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING
IN THE EAST CENTRAL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT. KBIS
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-13Z MONDAY...AND KJMS UNTIL
17Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KMOT/KBIS UNTIL
12Z MONDAY...AND AT KJMS UNTIL 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080533
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY A CLEAR SKY WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CENTRAL...WITH KMOT/KBIS ON THE
EXTREME WESTERN FRINGES OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
A SOLID OVERCAST SKY EXISTS FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AND INTO
HARVEY...JAMESTOWN...AND OAKES. VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND EXPECT THESE TO WANE BY 07Z- 08Z...WHICH
WAS ADVERTISED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WINDY CENTRAL...HENCE
THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
30 MPH. LATEST GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING
IN THE EAST CENTRAL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT. KBIS
WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-13Z MONDAY...AND KJMS UNTIL
17Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AT KMOT/KBIS UNTIL
12Z MONDAY...AND AT KJMS UNTIL 21Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 080520
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LIGHT SNOW AND 35 MPH WINDS HAVE NOW MOVED INTO FARGO
REGION...RESTRICTING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE. WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BAND OF SNOW WHICH HAS LINGERED OVER EASTERN
ND HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY.

FOR BLIZZARD AREA...CROOKSTON CURRENTLY SEEING THE WORST
VISIBILITIES...WITH 40 MPH WINDS AND SNOW BRINGING ONE QUARTER
MILE VISIBILITIES AT THE AIRPORT. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
VALLEY HAVE BEGAN TO RELAX AND VSBYS HAVE INCREASED SOME AT
AIRPORTS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN OPEN AREAS AND LIMITED
OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY...WILL KEEP BLIZZARD
HEADLINE GOING AS ADVERTISED...EXPIRING AT 6 AM CST. WESTERN POLK
SHOULD SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. IT WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH 00Z FOR ALL BUT THE WEST AND
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-
     028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 080349
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN WITH 10 PM CST UPDATE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE WIND
HEADLINES TO THE FAR WEST. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
DOWN THROUGH VALLEY CITY AND INTO GWINNER HAVE DECREASED BELOW
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL GUSTING 35 TO
40 MPH. HAVE DOWNGRADED WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z.
COLUMN WILL BE WELL MIXED THROUGH MID AFTN TOMORROW...HOWEVER
HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST OVER THE VALLEY...AND
MODELS BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS INTO DVL REGION BY MID MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE AND EXTEND SOUTHERN
PORTION OF WIND ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL VALLEY IS
STRUGGLING TO SHIFT EAST AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXTEND CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF EVENING FOR FAR EASTERN ND. WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 45 TO 50 MPH IN WESTERN POLK COUNTY...AND ARE
DECREASING IN THE FAR NORTH AROUND HALLOCK. HOWEVER...HCO STILL
MAINTAINING ONE HALF MILE IN BLOWING SNOW...AND WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION BEING OPEN COUNTRY...WILL HOLD ON TO BLIZZARD WARNING.
ELSEWHERE SEEING OBS FROM ONE HALF TO TWO MILES IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NO PLANS TO CHANGE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EITHER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MIXING TO ABOUT THE H875 LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT ONCE SNOW SHIFTS
EAST THAT WIND ADVISORY CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTN
TOMORROW...WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUING IN OPEN COUNTRY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WORST CONDITIONS/LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY...ROUGHLY FROM HALLOCK DOWN TO
CROOKSTON...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ONE QUARTER MILE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE
TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 03Z. WIND CONTINUE TO BE
STEADY AROUND 35 KTS TO 40 KTS...SO HIGH WIND WARNING IN WESTERN
ZONES STILL IN TACT. NO PLANNED HEADLINES CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND DOWN TO LIFR NEAR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-
     028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080315
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 0.5 KM ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT OVER WESTERN AND 45 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MONDAY....BUT GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL LINGER IN THE KJMS AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN WESTERN ND THROUGH THE 00 UTC
TAF VALID TIME...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080315 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EVERYWHERE...AND REPLACED IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL ND BASED ON RECENT LAMP OUTPUT
AND THE 00-02 RAP ITERATIONS. THOSE RAP SIMULATIONS MAINTAIN WINDS
OF 40-45 KT AT 850 MB ACROSS CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY...STEELE...JAMESTOWN AND OAKES. WE
THUS CARRIED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATTER AREAS UNTIL 22 UTC
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY RUNNING IT THROUGH 12 UTC FOR THE REST OF ITS
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT.

FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH OUR MOST
RECENT THINKING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO BLEND TO RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT OVER WESTERN AND 45 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY MONDAY....BUT GUSTS
TO 40 KT WILL LINGER IN THE KJMS AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN WESTERN ND THROUGH THE 00 UTC
TAF VALID TIME...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-004-
011-012-019>022-034-035-042-045-046.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-
037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 080036
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN ND. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ND
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KT
ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ND. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING TOO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 080036
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS ARE DECREASING OVER WESTERN ND AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT
EASES...AND AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY BEGINS INCREASING AS A RESULT
OF THE DIMINISHING WINDS THEN SPEEDS WILL DECREASE EVEN MORE. WE
THOUGHT ABOUT CANCELLING THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THIS UPDATE...BUT GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 40 MPH IN THE
CROSBY AREA SO WE WILL REVISIT THAT AGAIN A BIT LATER. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF ND WILL
NOT BE DONE BY ITS PLANNED 03 UTC EXPIRATION AT THE LATEST BASED
ON TRENDS THOUGH.

AS FOR THE FORECAST...IT IS LARGELY ON TRACK...SO CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE WERE ONLY TO BETTER REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN ND. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ND
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KT
ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ND. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING TOO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 080022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WORST CONDITIONS/LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY...ROUGHLY FROM HALLOCK DOWN TO
CROOKSTON...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ONE QUARTER MILE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE
TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 03Z. WIND CONTINUE TO BE
STEADY AROUND 35 KTS TO 40 KTS...SO HIGH WIND WARNING IN WESTERN
ZONES STILL IN TACT. NO PLANNED HEADLINES CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND DOWN TO LIFR NEAR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 080022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WORST CONDITIONS/LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY...ROUGHLY FROM HALLOCK DOWN TO
CROOKSTON...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN ONE QUARTER MILE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE
TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS THROUGH 03Z. WIND CONTINUE TO BE
STEADY AROUND 35 KTS TO 40 KTS...SO HIGH WIND WARNING IN WESTERN
ZONES STILL IN TACT. NO PLANNED HEADLINES CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUST TO AROUND 35KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND DOWN TO LIFR NEAR STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT ONCE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 072120
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
320 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS ONGOING HEADLINES. WILL RELY ON
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER VALLEY REGION ALONG WITH
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. AS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST SHOULD LOSE THE HIGHER GUSTS WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. WITH GUSTS OVER 40KTS IN THIS AREA
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH WIND HEADLINES AND CAN BE ADJUSTED PROBABLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SNOW BANDS CONTINUE FROM THE VALLEY EAST
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY CONFINED TO STRONGER SNOW BANDS. APPEARS
TO BE A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOWER VSBY FROM METARS AND WEB CAMS JUST
EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING
THIS AREA. OTHERWISE VSBY GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 4 MILES SO TOUGH
TO WARRANT BLIZZARD ELSEWHERE. WINDS TO STAY UP 20 TO 35 KTS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH NO BLOWING EXPECTED WITH CURRENT SNOW COVER
AND SHSN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FEEL VSBY WILL FURTHER IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST IN NW MN SO ALSO TOUGH TO
HOLD WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. FOR THIS
WILL TRANSITION BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO A DEGREE
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

-SN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING
ENDING IN THE FORENOON. WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE W-E ACROSS THE REGION
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE TEENS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES IN.
LESS WIND AND SOME CLEARING WILL DROP MINIMUMS TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO
MIDWEEK. SNOW CHANCES LOOK SPOTTY AND MINIMAL CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN FA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER PATTERN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SOLUTIONS...WENT WITH A BLEND ATTM.
THUS...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
A WAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL BRING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OTHERWISE...NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A BIT OF RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-005-006-
     008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 072107
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
UPPER LOW STACKED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WITH RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO FAST NORTHERLY FLOW OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
OF SNOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING...THOUGH OVER REMAINING
PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MIXING OF 50-60 KT GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL SLIGHT DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS BY
DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

ON MONDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH FAST
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...THOUGH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE MIXING DOWN WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS PATTERN BECOMES
SEMI-PERMANENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND DEFINES THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ANOTHER
CHANCE WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED
MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX WEST.

QUITE A BIT OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S
CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND 20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY TO
THE 20S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 071825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THE MID-DAY UPDATE HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL BROAD BAND OF SNOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING INTO MID-DAY
BEFORE REALLY TRIMMING BACK AS NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LINE. AS FOR
WIND HEADLINES...THOSE REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 071825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THE MID-DAY UPDATE HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL BROAD BAND OF SNOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING INTO MID-DAY
BEFORE REALLY TRIMMING BACK AS NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LINE. AS FOR
WIND HEADLINES...THOSE REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 071825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THE MID-DAY UPDATE HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL BROAD BAND OF SNOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING INTO MID-DAY
BEFORE REALLY TRIMMING BACK AS NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LINE. AS FOR
WIND HEADLINES...THOSE REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071602
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. CIGS
RANGED FROM 8 HUNDRED TO 25 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY AS VFR CIGS OF 35 TO 50 HUNDRED FT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. EXPECT MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MN
SIDE WITH SNOW FOR THIS MORNING. MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 071556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
956 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING INTO MID-DAY
BEFORE REALLY TRIMMING BACK AS NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LINE. AS FOR
WIND HEADLINES...THOSE REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50KT AND 60KT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS...RESULTING IN
BLOWING SNOW AND VSBYS PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO MVFR. CIGS WILL ALSO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR STATUS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KDIK/KISN...WHICH WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 071344
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
744 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50KT AND 60KT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS...RESULTING IN
BLOWING SNOW AND VSBYS PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO MVFR. CIGS WILL ALSO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR STATUS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KDIK/KISN...WHICH WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. CIGS
RANGED FROM 8 HUNDRED TO 25 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY AS VFR CIGS OF 35 TO 50 HUNDRED FT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. EXPECT MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MN
SIDE WITH SNOW FOR THIS MORNING. MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-
     030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. CIGS
RANGED FROM 8 HUNDRED TO 25 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY AS VFR CIGS OF 35 TO 50 HUNDRED FT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. EXPECT MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MN
SIDE WITH SNOW FOR THIS MORNING. MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-
     030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071300
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE MN SIDE OF THE RED RIVER. CIGS
RANGED FROM 8 HUNDRED TO 25 HUNDRED FT. FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS
INDICATED A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT
SHOULD FILL IN SHORTLY AS VFR CIGS OF 35 TO 50 HUNDRED FT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE ND SIDE OF
THE RED RIVER. EXPECT MORE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MN
SIDE WITH SNOW FOR THIS MORNING. MORE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-027-029-
     030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KBIS 071237
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50KT AND 60KT WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS...RESULTING IN
BLOWING SNOW AND VSBYS PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO MVFR. CIGS WILL ALSO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR STATUS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KDIK/KISN...WHICH WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 071000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 071000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     NDZ039-049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ002-003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
351 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE ND/MN/MAN
BORDER. A SECONDARY LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SUN.
SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO TO WEST OF WYNDMERE
ND. MILD AIR REMAINS BEHIND WIND SHIFT AND COLD AIR REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL SASK AND CENTRAL MAN. COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE SUN MORNING.

INCREASED LOWS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND MN SITES BY THE 08Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN
PICKING UP AT DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z.
WINDS WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING
NW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 070550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE ND/MN/MAN
BORDER. A SECONDARY LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SUN.
SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO TO WEST OF WYNDMERE
ND. MILD AIR REMAINS BEHIND WIND SHIFT AND COLD AIR REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL SASK AND CENTRAL MAN. COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE SUN MORNING.

INCREASED LOWS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND MN SITES BY THE 08Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN
PICKING UP AT DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z.
WINDS WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING
NW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE ND/MN/MAN
BORDER. A SECONDARY LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SUN.
SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO TO WEST OF WYNDMERE
ND. MILD AIR REMAINS BEHIND WIND SHIFT AND COLD AIR REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL SASK AND CENTRAL MAN. COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE SUN MORNING.

INCREASED LOWS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND MN SITES BY THE 08Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN
PICKING UP AT DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z.
WINDS WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING
NW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070344
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY
STRONG ON SUNDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST INTENSE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070344 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY
STRONG ON SUNDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST INTENSE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070231
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
831 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 070231
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
831 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070231
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
831 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SURE. WE ARE
CURRENTLY VERY MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN THE LAST HOUR...AND MID/UPPER 30S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE THEY ARE AROUND FREEZING. A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH IN STRONG WAA AND HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 6Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW IT GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BY
8Z OR SO...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE 9-12Z TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL STILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHEN IT FALLS. THE
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPS LIKELY AROUND 30 OR SO. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
BY 15Z...ALONG WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS INCREASING
AND GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST OPEN COUNTRY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IT WILL STILL BE A ROUGH TRAVEL DAY
WHERE IT DOES SNOW 2 OR 3 INCHES...SO NO CHANGES AT ALL PLANNED TO
HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE BLIZZARD...A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR BY 01Z AND DEPART BY MID
EVENING. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE AT DVL BY 06Z AND INTO THE VALLEY AND MN
SITES BY THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP AT
DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WITHIN AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING NW WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT
STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 070025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SURE. WE ARE
CURRENTLY VERY MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN THE LAST HOUR...AND MID/UPPER 30S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE THEY ARE AROUND FREEZING. A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH IN STRONG WAA AND HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 6Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW IT GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BY
8Z OR SO...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE 9-12Z TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL STILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHEN IT FALLS. THE
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPS LIKELY AROUND 30 OR SO. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
BY 15Z...ALONG WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS INCREASING
AND GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST OPEN COUNTRY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IT WILL STILL BE A ROUGH TRAVEL DAY
WHERE IT DOES SNOW 2 OR 3 INCHES...SO NO CHANGES AT ALL PLANNED TO
HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE BLIZZARD...A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR BY 01Z AND DEPART BY MID
EVENING. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE AT DVL BY 06Z AND INTO THE VALLEY AND MN
SITES BY THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP AT
DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WITHIN AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING NW WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT
STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 070025
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SURE. WE ARE
CURRENTLY VERY MILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 HERE AT THE OFFICE
IN THE LAST HOUR...AND MID/UPPER 30S IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE THEY ARE AROUND FREEZING. A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTH IN STRONG WAA AND HAVE TIMED THIS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 6Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW IT GETTING COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BY
8Z OR SO...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE 9-12Z TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL STILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHEN IT FALLS. THE
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW SHOULD FALL IN THE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPS LIKELY AROUND 30 OR SO. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
BY 15Z...ALONG WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS INCREASING
AND GUSTING OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES WITH AT LEAST OPEN COUNTRY
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. IT WILL STILL BE A ROUGH TRAVEL DAY
WHERE IT DOES SNOW 2 OR 3 INCHES...SO NO CHANGES AT ALL PLANNED TO
HEADLINES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. PRIOR TO THE BLIZZARD...A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO FAR BY 01Z AND DEPART BY MID
EVENING. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE AT DVL BY 06Z AND INTO THE VALLEY AND MN
SITES BY THE 06Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP AT
DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WITHIN AND
WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING NW WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT
STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35
KT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...AND ON SUNDAY GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
KT ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND BY SUNDAY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH 06
UTC. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND MAINLY
CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH REDUCED IN VISIBILITIES
IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-013-023-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 070023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35
KT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...AND ON SUNDAY GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
KT ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND BY SUNDAY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH 06
UTC. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND MAINLY
CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH REDUCED IN VISIBILITIES
IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-013-023-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 070023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35
KT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...AND ON SUNDAY GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
KT ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND BY SUNDAY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH 06
UTC. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND MAINLY
CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH REDUCED IN VISIBILITIES
IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-013-023-025.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS




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