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000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 050228
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. STILL AN AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY . CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
STABILIZE...REDUCING THE THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KFGF 042357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FCST IN FINE SHAPE NO CHANGES. SKIES CLEAR NOW AS THE CU HAS
DISSIPATED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH NO ISSUES THROUGH 18Z WED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO DVL REGION AND
THEN THE RRV BY MORNING. THICKENING CIRRUS AND THEN SOME ALTOCU
MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TIMING ANY
PRECIP....DVL BASIN HAS BEST CHANCE BY MID AFTN. 18Z MODELS
INDICATE BEST RISK WED EVE NRN VALLEY AND CANADA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FCST IN FINE SHAPE NO CHANGES. SKIES CLEAR NOW AS THE CU HAS
DISSIPATED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH NO ISSUES THROUGH 18Z WED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO DVL REGION AND
THEN THE RRV BY MORNING. THICKENING CIRRUS AND THEN SOME ALTOCU
MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TIMING ANY
PRECIP....DVL BASIN HAS BEST CHANCE BY MID AFTN. 18Z MODELS
INDICATE BEST RISK WED EVE NRN VALLEY AND CANADA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FCST IN FINE SHAPE NO CHANGES. SKIES CLEAR NOW AS THE CU HAS
DISSIPATED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH NO ISSUES THROUGH 18Z WED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO DVL REGION AND
THEN THE RRV BY MORNING. THICKENING CIRRUS AND THEN SOME ALTOCU
MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TIMING ANY
PRECIP....DVL BASIN HAS BEST CHANCE BY MID AFTN. 18Z MODELS
INDICATE BEST RISK WED EVE NRN VALLEY AND CANADA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042357
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FCST IN FINE SHAPE NO CHANGES. SKIES CLEAR NOW AS THE CU HAS
DISSIPATED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH NO ISSUES THROUGH 18Z WED. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH THIN CIRRUS MOVING INTO DVL REGION AND
THEN THE RRV BY MORNING. THICKENING CIRRUS AND THEN SOME ALTOCU
MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TIMING ANY
PRECIP....DVL BASIN HAS BEST CHANCE BY MID AFTN. 18Z MODELS
INDICATE BEST RISK WED EVE NRN VALLEY AND CANADA. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WIND 8 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KBIS 042325
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NORTH. THUS HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL AROUND 01-04 UTC...AND SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH 06Z...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES OTHER THAN
POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC. ALSO KEPT A VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT AFTER 16-18 UTC
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 042014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 042014
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES PICKING UP
AGAIN ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS FIRE UP SOME
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MT LATER TONIGHT AND BRING IT NEAR THE ND/MT
BORDER BY 06Z WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS
EAST ON WED MORNING...GETTING CLOSE TO THE KDVL REGION BY 18Z.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE THERE COULD VERY WELL BE THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS. CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD DOWN SFC HEATING THRU THE DAY. ALSO NOT SURE OF THE DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON STILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN PLACES. MODELS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW ON WED...BRINGING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH WITH SUCH
A WEAK SFC PATTERN. DO SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE LINE
OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA. 12Z RUN OF
THE SPC WRF SHOWS THE LINE APPROACHING THE KDVL AREA AROUND 21Z
WED AND NEARING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THU. SPC HAS THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH SEEMS ALRIGHT WITH THE WEAKER
PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. BY 18Z THU MODELS SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST
SD BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
AFFECT THINGS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS SEEM TO WANT TO LINGER SOME LIGHT
PCPN THU MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN FA WHICH COULD ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT SFC HEATING. EITHER WAY THE MARGINAL RISK AT THIS
POINT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FA...BARELY TOUCHING THE SOUTHERN
FA. SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT FOR THIS WITH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SEEMED TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
OF THE 12Z RUNS AND BARELY AFFECTS THIS FA...WHILE THE GFS/NAM
AND GEM ALL HOLD BACK A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE WED EVENT
SO HAVE MORE TRUST IN IT ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE MUCH LESS FOR PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FA FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS AS FEATURE PASSES AND BOUNDARIES DROP THROUGH THE FA.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW AS LOW EXITS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT
TERM.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE 16-18 UTC
HRRR ITERATIONS ARE EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FAR WEST...AND DECREASED THEM OVERNIGHT WITH 06 UTC
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER
THE WEST AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP SO FAR TODAY.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE RUNNING SHORTWAVE. SPC HAS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE
WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
CONVECTION DOES PLACE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE REALIZED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A TREND
OF MAINLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
-126/36...WHICH IS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...REACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS 12Z THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OUR NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA 12Z THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE EAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN DOING SO...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS DRY FRIDAY WHILE THE
SREF AND ECMWF KEEP A SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGE TAKING CONTROL AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z...KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC AND KJMS
AFTER 18 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 041825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FAR WEST...WITH 06 UTC APPEARING
TO BE THE FAVORED TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER THE WEST
AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
SO FAR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z AND KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL AND HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES CONTINUE TO SLOW THE
PROPAGATION AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FAR WEST...WITH 06 UTC APPEARING
TO BE THE FAVORED TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL STORMS TO ENTER THE WEST
AS MOISTURE RETURN INTO EASTERN MONTANA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
SO FAR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...APPROACHING
KISN/KDIK AROUND 06-07Z AND KBIS/KMOT AROUND 12-14 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041735
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS IN THIS AREA A LITTLE MORE. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041735
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS IN THIS AREA A LITTLE MORE. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE BUT REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEEING SOME CUMULUS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN BETWEEN LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUN
TODAY. TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
THIS TIME MONDAY SO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEEING SOME CUMULUS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN BETWEEN LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUN
TODAY. TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
THIS TIME MONDAY SO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEEING SOME CUMULUS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN BETWEEN LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUN
TODAY. TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
THIS TIME MONDAY SO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 041440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEEING SOME CUMULUS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. IN BETWEEN LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUN
TODAY. TEMPS RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES AHEAD OF
THIS TIME MONDAY SO THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH
KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z. DID NOT MENTION VCTS FOR KBIS OR KMOT AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH
KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z. DID NOT MENTION VCTS FOR KBIS OR KMOT AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH
KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z. DID NOT MENTION VCTS FOR KBIS OR KMOT AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041433
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC. THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...12-13 UTC
HRRR RUNS AND 12 UTC NAM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION
REMAINING IN EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 00 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NARROW AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THIS MORNING THAT WILL
ADVECT NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH
KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z. DID NOT MENTION VCTS FOR KBIS OR KMOT AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 041143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONSIDERED ADDING A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS AND
KBAC BRIEFLY REPORTED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG...BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE CLIMBED BACK TO 10SM...AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT THE FOG MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE ANY FOG SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED...AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDS...WITH THE FORECAST
GENERALLY STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z. DID NOT MENTION
VCTS FOR KBIS OR KMOT AS PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 041131
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKC TODAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...JK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS PATTERN/AIRMASS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR FULL
SOLAR. TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 75 TO 80F IN THE RRV WITH A BIT LESS IN
THE LOTW AREA.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT 850MB FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY PWATS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES
ARE PROGGED BY BOTH THE 00Z GFS/NAM. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
ALLOWS FOR ML CAPES IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS CREATING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KTS...SPC HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STRONGER WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA...
ON THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER AND THE SFC LOW A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED CENTERED IN SD BY 18Z FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEY.
BULK SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A
HIGHER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY ACTIVE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT INSTABILITY (MOISTURE RETURN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/TG
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040805
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WAS MAINTAINED
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE...BUT WAS BEING UNDERCUT BY
A SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UTAH INTO
WYOMING. A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN CO/WY AND WESTERN NE/SD NUDGING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H850
JET...ARCING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN/WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA...ENTERS FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH EAST WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST...BRINGING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
REGION. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND
SPREADING TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST AND WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
NOT EXPECTING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THIS SCENARIO.

LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
35 TO 40 KTS. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE...BUT THE
NEXT WAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THE MODEL BLEND PAINTS
40-50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...AND COULD SEE THOSE RISING IN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE AGREEMENT ALREADY SEEN AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE NAM / GFS AND ECMWF.

A WEAK H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE PROGRESSION OF WAVES CONTINUES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE DETAILS...AND WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF SATURDAY
DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040528
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. ONLY MINOR
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ADJUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT
BUT THINK UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK MOST AREAS. THE FAR
WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 040528
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO BIG CHANGES THIS UPDATE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. ONLY MINOR
HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS ADJUSTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT
BUT THINK UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK MOST AREAS. THE FAR
WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REACH/APPROACH KISN/KDIK BY AROUND 03Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040426
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT FAIR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 040240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 040240
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT
BUT THINK UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK MOST AREAS. THE FAR
WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 040232
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT
BUT THINK UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHOULD WORK MOST AREAS. THE FAR
WEST MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 032338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET... AS SHOULD CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL
MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 032338
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EARLY EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET... AS SHOULD CLOUDS OVER NCNTRL
MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD DIMMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY FORENOON.
SCATTERED VFR CIGS OVER NORTHCENTRAL MN SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET... WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KBIS 032328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC



000
FXUS63 KBIS 032328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WEST
LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
OTHER THAN POPULATING THE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KISN AND KDIK THROUGH 00Z WED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WHICH WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR NOW...LOOKING AT QUIET NW FLOW.
LITTLE BREEZIER CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL PCPN EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS WERE VERY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z BETWEEN KBIS AND KABR. THEN THEY
WOULD DROP THESE INTO EASTERN SD INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...IN THE
AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES AT 18Z WED
OVER WESTERN ND...SHIFTING THRU OUR ENTIRE FA WED NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT SPC HAS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER BUT WOULD HOPE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. NOT SEEING A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL INTO THU EITHER ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND SEEMS DRIER. WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES
ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL BE DRY TOO.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MON...GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. BUT THE MOST OPPORTUNE
TIME FOR PRONOUNCED COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH
OF BORDER BUT INCREASING SHEAR AND FORCING COULD COME TOGETHER FOR
SEVERE EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WEEKEND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE TIME SO ONLY MARGINAL CHC POPS MAINTAINED AS
RIPPLES MOVE THROUGH. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED...VALUES THAT ARE NOT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON
AVIATION...WJB



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031935
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031935
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
235 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY PROPAGATING EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING. THUS...A SLIGHTLY
WARMER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE/700-500MB...ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. IN DOING
SO...AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
EASTERN WYOMING AND THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 70KT JET STREAK WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...AIDING
IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER TUESDAY NIGHT
WEST...AND NUDGING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST. A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STIRS UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. JET STREAK
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LESS SOUTH...HENCE HIGHEST
POPS NORTH. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SAME TYPE OF PATTERN LOOKS TO OCCUR THROUGH
MIDWEEK...TRANSITORY RIDGING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AS OF NOW. WILL WAIT UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO EACH
EVENT AND RE-EVALUATE THE SEVERE PARAMETERS TO SEE IF IT ALL LINES
UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE DRY AND QUIET FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE DRY AND QUIET FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE DRY AND QUIET FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE DRY AND QUIET FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEEING A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS...SO UPDATED THE CLOUD
FORECAST SLIGHTLY. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM ROSEAU TO
BEMIDJI AS WELL WHERE 70F IS STILL WITHIN REACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WJB



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEEING A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS...SO UPDATED THE CLOUD
FORECAST SLIGHTLY. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM ROSEAU TO
BEMIDJI AS WELL WHERE 70F IS STILL WITHIN REACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WJB




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST LOOKING FINE AT THIS POINT SO NO UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE CIGS WERE AROUND 25 HUNDRED TO 37 HUNDRED
FT. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THESE TWO COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BJI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF CLOUDY SKY. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031430
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KFGF 031201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER WAS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE CIGS WERE AROUND 25 HUNDRED TO 37 HUNDRED
FT. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THESE TWO COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BJI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF CLOUDY SKY. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES



000
FXUS63 KFGF 031201
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER WAS ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES WHERE CIGS WERE AROUND 25 HUNDRED TO 37 HUNDRED
FT. EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THESE TWO COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. BJI WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF CLOUDY SKY. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 5-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 MPH AT KISN AND
KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 5-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 MPH AT KISN AND
KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 031137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 5-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 MPH AT KISN AND
KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 031137
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS AROUND 5-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5-10 MPH AT KISN AND
KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 030858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 030858
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030808
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
308 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 030531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT MOST AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT GENERALLY
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 030531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT MOST AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT GENERALLY
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT MOST AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT GENERALLY
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 030531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT MOST AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT GENERALLY
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 030435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ADJUSTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. AN
AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...AND 925MB RH
SUPPORTS INCREASED COVERAGE IN LAKE OF THE WOODS...ROSEAU...AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PCPN. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL
SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP AND WINDS TAPER OFF...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A BIT OF A
TIGHT GRADIENT. THE SFC RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST AS A WHOLE REMAINS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 030435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ADJUSTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. AN
AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...AND 925MB RH
SUPPORTS INCREASED COVERAGE IN LAKE OF THE WOODS...ROSEAU...AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BRINGING
SCATTERED SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PCPN. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL
SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP AND WINDS TAPER OFF...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A BIT OF A
TIGHT GRADIENT. THE SFC RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST AS A WHOLE REMAINS ON TARGET WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS...RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF
THIS UPPER WAVE. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE A STRONGER WAVE ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THAN THE GFS/NAM. THE GEM IS MUCH QUICKER AS
WELL...HAVING FORCING/PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...BRINGING THE FORCING INTO THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY GOING WITH A CHANCE ALONG THE FAR SOUTH AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH (AND LEAD SHORTWAVES) APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT
WILL BE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND GEM ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
BRINGING INSTABILITY/PRECIP INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFT AROUND 15Z WITH
INVERSION BREAK. LITTLE TO NO PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPKINS
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPKINS




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