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000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 301436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE
LAYER IS NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. WILL LET THE SMOKE IN THE
GRIDS END AND EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO FAR CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE
LAYER IS NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. WILL LET THE SMOKE IN THE
GRIDS END AND EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO FAR CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KBIS 301436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE
LAYER IS NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. WILL LET THE SMOKE IN THE
GRIDS END AND EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO FAR CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301436
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT 9 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SMOKE
LAYER IS NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. WILL LET THE SMOKE IN THE
GRIDS END AND EVALUATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO FAR CURRENT
FORECAST TRENDING OK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK




000
FXUS63 KFGF 301140
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AND
GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT TODAY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBJI...AND ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST...BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH THIS MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 301131
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
JAMESTOWN. ALSO AN AREA OF THUNDER OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA
LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. BOTH AREA COVERED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. HARD TO SEE ANY OTHER AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AS
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ANYWHERE EARLY THIS
MORNING IN SMOKE OR FOG. FOR THE UPDATE DID BUMP UP CLOUD COVER A
LITTLE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE REDUCING VSBYS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z...WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND HELP MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AT ALL TAF SITES...STRONGEST AND
GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 18-21Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD
SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF VCSH BUT NOT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW SINCE LIKELIHOOD
IS LOW OF A TS RIGHT AT THE TAF SITE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300829
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS/SMOKE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
TAFS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AND GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z
NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300820
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE THIS
MORNING...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS
AND INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. CIRRUS AND HIGH LEVEL MID CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN FIRES CONTINUED TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SMOKE
THAT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN FORCE ON SATURDAY STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING WERE NOT AS
LOW AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.

SMOKE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BEGIN TO LINK UP WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...THE TROUGH/FRONT IN
MONTANA WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE
AND THIS THERMAL CAP (+12C TO +14C AT H700) SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND (WEST OF) THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND TO AROUND 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IN
THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ONLY REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND JAMES VALLEY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...MORE SO ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT SCATTERED BEHIND IT
AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE 60S
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST MONDAY
MORNING...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

ON TUESDAY...WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AROUND BISMARCK NORTH AND EAST INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL HINTING AT SOME
POSSIBLE CONVECTION HERE GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS THEN
COOLING A BIT INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
TAFS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AND GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z
NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300527
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING RETURN OF MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD
HELP INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY TEMPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
TAFS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AND GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z
NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300527
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ALLOWING RETURN OF MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD
HELP INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN HOURLY TEMPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS
TAFS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 16Z AND GUSTY AT KBIS AND KJMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND 18Z...THEN MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY REACHING CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AROUND 03Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND 21Z-00Z
NEAR KISN/KDIK BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW SINCE
LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH TIME LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...BUT STILL
TOO FAR OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOOKS LIKE MORE CIRRUS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
SMOKE...IT WILL PROBABLY MEAN FILTERED SUN TO START THE DAY AGAIN.
THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS/SMOKE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 300428
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOOKS LIKE MORE CIRRUS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
SMOKE...IT WILL PROBABLY MEAN FILTERED SUN TO START THE DAY AGAIN.
THE SOUTH WINDS HAVE REMAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME MORE
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS/SMOKE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300259
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300259
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KBIS 300259
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300259
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300224
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 300224
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 300053
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
753 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY
START TO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMOKE LAYER WILL STAY. STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY
START TO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMOKE LAYER WILL STAY. STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY
START TO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMOKE LAYER WILL STAY. STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292337
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY
START TO THE NIGHT. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING...BUT THE SMOKE LAYER WILL STAY. STILL EXPECT WINDS
TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING THEN MAINLY
SMOKE/CIRRUS THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292256
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
556 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 292101
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 292101
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 10 TO
15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KFGF 292009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS




000
FXUS63 KFGF 292009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...PRODUCING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE
FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES HAVE LIMITED HIGHS A BIT TODAY. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TODAY. MODELS HAVE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT...SO HAVE
REASON TO BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. STILL...HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SOME SMOKE ALOFT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY TOMORROW. AIR QUALITY PROG LEANS TOWARD SOME SURFACE SMOKE
BEING POSSIBLE YET TODAY AND TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
LIMITED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND TODAY...AND HAVE STARTED
BECOMING LIMITED IN PARTS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CANDO.
SATELLITE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TOMORROW...AND
THE INFLUENCE ON INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS STILL HARD TO SAY.
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON SOME LIMITED SUN.

LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...NEARING 70 DEGREES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS OF A CHANCE AS OF
LATE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY...BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. THE AREA WILL SIT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
OR STRENGTHENS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
AND THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH PERIOD.
BETTER CHANCE COMES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER INTO THE AREA. AS MAYBE THE CASE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER
THAN PROGGED THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL GO WITH IDEA OF HIGHER POPS
LATER FRIDAY-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN GENERAL...WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 27 TO 32 PERCENT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY GO LOWER DEPENDING
ON HOW DRY THE AIR IS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WHETHER
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...TRANSPORT
WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM 20 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR...AND
THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE. DESPITE CURRENT FIRE
DANGER RATINGS FOR ERN NORTH DAKOTA BEING LOW TO MODERATE...THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR...WINDS AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY BUT SMOKE WAS OBSCURING SOME OF THE SKY
SO PARTLY CLOUDY WILL BE SUITABLE FOR THE SKY CONDITION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH AREAS OF SMOKE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SKY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH AREAS 3 TO 5
MILES IN FU. .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 291750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT
TODAY...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. ALSO...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND OUT OF
THE RADAR RETURNS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT
TODAY...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. ALSO...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND OUT OF
THE RADAR RETURNS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 291750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT
TODAY...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. ALSO...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND OUT OF
THE RADAR RETURNS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SHORT WAVE IS BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT
TODAY...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH. ALSO...NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND OUT OF
THE RADAR RETURNS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE AREA AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS BETTER MIXED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN
THE 8 TO 20 KTS RANGE AROUND 1-2K AGL.   SO WILL KEEP SCT-BKN CIRRUS
TONIGHT WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER SUNDAY.  SMOKE/HAZY SKY TODAY
WILL BE A BIT LESS SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE



000
FXUS63 KFGF 291515
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291515
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE ABOVE 3 MI BY NOON. SMOKE HAS
LIMITED SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAY
CONSIDER LOWERING HIGHS A BIT IF TRENDS INDICATE THE NEED TO DO
SO. ALSO..LOOKING AT 1 HR AVG SFC SMOKE FCST...THERE MAY MAY BE
SURFACE SMOKE TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
COMBINED WITH SMOKE OBSCURING SUN...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE TO
GRIDS. TOMORROW...RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST INCLUDE EXTENDING THE AREAS OF SMOKE
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE AND DEPTH OF THE SMOKE LAYER TO ALMOST BE LIKE A
CLOUD LAYER. SO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION WHERE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. THE SMOKE SHOULD CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE MID
90S WEST TO AROUND 98. SMOKE SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 100.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES WERE REPORTED
AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES AT KBIS...AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

ADDED MENTION OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT 2500-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING
A CIG WITH SMOKE PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER VSBY REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291156
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291156
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KFGF 291156
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST




000
FXUS63 KFGF 291156
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG APPEARS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 2... AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE NEEDED THIS EARY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SCATTERED LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN GROUND FOG MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH 13Z. THEN PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS IN LIGHT SMOKE OR HAZE ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND. ELSE FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES WERE REPORTED
AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES AT KBIS...AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

ADDED MENTION OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT 2500-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING
A CIG WITH SMOKE PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER VSBY REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES WERE REPORTED
AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES AT KBIS...AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

ADDED MENTION OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT 2500-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING
A CIG WITH SMOKE PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER VSBY REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES WERE REPORTED
AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES AT KBIS...AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

ADDED MENTION OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT 2500-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING
A CIG WITH SMOKE PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER VSBY REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 291136
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF SMOKE AND FOG...WHICH IS CURRENTLY COVERED
IN THE FORECAST. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HAZARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES WERE REPORTED
AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE AND FOG MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES AT KBIS...AND FOG POSSIBLE AT KJMS.

ADDED MENTION OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT 2500-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING
A CIG WITH SMOKE PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER VSBY REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 290832
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH FOG
DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MID MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...WITH SMOKE AND HAZE PARTIALLY OBSCURING AN OTHERWISE FAIR
SKY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING TOWARDS THE LOWER
90S IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A FAIRLY
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOVING
OUR WARM H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTRODUCING A MORE
UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND AN INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...THERES A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN WESTERN US TROUGHING AND BROAD
RIDGING TO THE EAST. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS COULD APPROACH OR ECLIPSE 90
IN SPOTS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE
FLOW AMPLIFIES...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES ERODE LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH TIMING ISSUES. EXPECT MOST HOURS TO BE DRY...ESPECIALLY
ASSUMING A SLOWER SOLUTION...AS THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT
REMAINS NORTH WHILE WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPS SPREAD INTO THE AREA. A
FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAPPING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS STILL LOOKING GOOD. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING
FOG. THEN THE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON/GUST



000
FXUS63 KBIS 290825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV



000
FXUS63 KBIS 290825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAD MOVED INTO THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEPARATED THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
THERMAL RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND THE HUMID AIR WITH GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE TO THE EAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MANITOBA TO BETWEEN MINOT AND WILLISTON...TO BETWEEN BISMARCK AND
DICKINSON...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA...WITH PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TODAY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DRY AIR FROM THE WEST TO PUSH
FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. YESTERDAY THE SMOKE ALOFT
PREVENTED FULL SUNSHINE...AND LIKELY ACCOUNTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WENT ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES...AS THICKNESS OF SMOKE WILL
PROBABLY BE VARIABLE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY IN
AREAS WHERE/WHEN SMOKE LAYERS ARE THIN. GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S WEST TO AROUND 90 FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY.
SEE BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED TODAY.

TONIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST
TROUGH NUDGES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REACH THE
FRONT RANGE. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS MEAN THAT THE MORE HUMID AIR TO OUR
EAST WILL ADVECT BACK WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.
LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S. THINKING FOG MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE
STRONGEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES TO A RANGE OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT.

WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY
ALOFT IS MINIMAL SO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WORDING.

A LINGERING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT IN
GENERAL...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK...DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR NEAR DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS WE
MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
SATURDAY. CERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...AND THAT EXPECTED
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
WEST...WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT VALUES IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH FOR STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON WINDS. SURFACE TO LINKAGE
ALOFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACH AROUND 90F...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 25 MPH. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...NOT
EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH OVER 15 MPH. IT IS A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...BUT THOUGHT IT BEST TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
REACH CRITERIA. BEST CERTAINTY FOR 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS IS IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST...AND WHERE THE RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED. AREAS
INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES: MCKENZIE...GOLDEN VALLEY...BILLINGS...
SLOPE...BOWMAN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017-031-032-040-043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE AROUND 3-6 MILES IN SMOKE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION AS WELL OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. FARTHER WEST DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER WESTERN US RIDGE AIRMASS. EXPECT VISIBILITIES
REDUCED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL AFTER AROUND 8 TO 10 AM
CDT WHEN SOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...WITH HETTINGER
ALREADY DIPPING TO 54 DEGREES. MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VISIBILITIES WERE AROUND 3-6 MILES IN SMOKE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING FOG FORMATION AS WELL OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S. FARTHER WEST DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER WESTERN US RIDGE AIRMASS. EXPECT VISIBILITIES
REDUCED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL AFTER AROUND 8 TO 10 AM
CDT WHEN SOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS...WITH HETTINGER
ALREADY DIPPING TO 54 DEGREES. MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS MORNING. SMOKE MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO
DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY THIS MORNING. ADDED MENTION OF
SCT-BKN CIGS AT 3000-5000 FEET AS SENSORS DETECTING A CIG WITH SMOKE
PARTICLES. AFTER 16Z SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND
DISSIPATE FOG AND SURFACE SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER VSBY
REDUCTIONS END BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-
040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV



000
FXUS63 KFGF 290438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KINL...BUT THESE SHOULD
STILL STAY JUST EAST OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT KEEPS IT JUST TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE ALREADY
SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHTEST. WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS STILL LOOKING GOOD. LIGHT OR LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. THEN THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING. ONLY
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 290438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KINL...BUT THESE SHOULD
STILL STAY JUST EAST OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT KEEPS IT JUST TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE ALREADY
SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHTEST. WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS STILL LOOKING GOOD. LIGHT OR LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. THEN THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING. ONLY
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KFGF 290438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KINL...BUT THESE SHOULD
STILL STAY JUST EAST OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT KEEPS IT JUST TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE ALREADY
SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHTEST. WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS STILL LOOKING GOOD. LIGHT OR LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. THEN THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING. ONLY
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON




000
FXUS63 KFGF 290223
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
923 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET WITH CIRRUS/SMOKE OVERHEAD AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SPREAD THE MENTION OF FOG A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST TO INCLUDE THE KFAR AREA AS WELL AS THE MN LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY THE KTVF/KBJI AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE JUST LOOKING AT SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE. WAS
QUITE A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING AT EVERY TAF SITE BUT KDVL SO HAVE
KEPT IT MENTIONED AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GET GOING FROM THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING...BUT ONLY FROM 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KBIS 290153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
853 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
853 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
853 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 290153
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
853 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED A MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 83...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WERE OBSERVED AS OF 01 UTC. THE 23-00 UTC
RAP ITERATIONS HOLD THIS MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT...SUPPORTED
BY THE HRRR VISIBILITY PRODUCT RAPIDLY DECREASING LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS/KBIS VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD




000
FXUS63 KBIS 282338
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD



000
FXUS63 KFGF 282335
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW TSTMS HAVE FORMED AROUND THE KINL AREA WHICH ARE DRIFTING
EAST. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW WEAK ECHOES STRETCHING BACK TOWARD THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS...BUT THESE HAVE QUICKLY MOVED EAST. NOT LOOKING
LIKE ANYTHING WILL FORM BACK INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY
TOWARD THE KJMS AREA. PRETTY WEAK SFC FLOW WEST OF THE VALLEY. FOG
WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE AS IT WAS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING.
FORECAST ALREADY HAS IT MENTIONED IN THE EAST TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT BY THE KTVF/KBJI AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE JUST LOOKING AT SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE. WAS
QUITE A BIT OF FOG THIS MORNING AT EVERY TAF SITE BUT KDVL SO HAVE
KEPT IT MENTIONED AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GET GOING FROM THE
SOUTH AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING...BUT ONLY FROM 10-15
KNOTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA




000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KBIS 282045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE
SMOKE LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION
SMOKE IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA



000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 282011
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG



000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 281807
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
107 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE/IF T-STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP. SFC OBS
SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND TO 25 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH TEMPS
NR 80 AND DEW PTS 65-70 IN MUCH OF THE RRV AND E ND AND FAR NW MN.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS NOTED BUT MORE IN CNTRL ND ROLLA-CANDO AREA
AND INTO SW MANITOBA. CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK WIND SHIFT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTN AND SOME STORMS FIRING
FARGO-DETROIT LAKES AREA 00Z OR SO. THAT HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL BUT YET TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE AS DEPICTED BY HRRR STILL AM
NOT SURE WILL OCCUR. TRENDED POPS THE WAY OF THE HRRR AND HOP WRF
MODELS WHICH SO THE FARGO-DTL CONVECTION.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE
IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS... THOUGH ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS HOUR IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT BRUSHES THE U.S. BORDER
ACROSS NORTHERN CAVALIER AND KITTSON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORENOON THROUGHOUT THE NORTH BORDER COUNTIES... SPREADING ACROSS
FAR NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...STARTING IN EAST CENTRAL ND FROM MID AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF AXIS INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON AFTERNOON HEATING... WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S IN SPOTS... THUS SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUUNDAY...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. WITH A WARM
H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FRM THEMID 80S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...A VERY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
HEADING INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY ON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH ACROSS CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY COULD FIRE A FEW STORMS OFF ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN WASH OUT WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES
LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A STORM COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN/RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT. WARMER MID-
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY WED INTO THUR AS THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. DETAILS OUT AT THIS
RANGE ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

AVE HIGHS/LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S/LOW 50S DURING EARLY
SEPT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD SHOULD REACH THE 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S THROUGH THUR. WED AND POSSIBLY THUR LOOK TO BE WARMEST AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 25C. SO SOME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90 ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015


MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NAM AND SREF STILL POINT TOWARD ACTIVITY NEAR
TVF/GFK BY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ACTIVITY
FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...MORE IN THE KBJI TO KFAR AREAS AROUND 00Z.
REGARDING TS...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. NAM AND SREF ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BR DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IT AT 5SM AROUND SUNRISE AT GFK/BJI/TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG




000
FXUS63 KBIS 281622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THOUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE SUPERCELL STORM IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA HAS A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ADDED SOME
CLOUDS NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD SOON
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTH CENTRAL...OTHERWISE DRY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND WILL KEEP THIS THROUGH 15 UTC. RAISED
SKY COVER A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE BORDER OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD PERSISTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND WAS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME CONVECTION THAT APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE STORMS MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF BOTTINEAU COUNTY AND INTO
ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNRISE THERE.

AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MAKE
FOR A POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. HAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM CDT.

LATER THIS MORNING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
THIS OCCURS AS THE MORE HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY REACHING
THE LOWER 90S WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SHOULD BE REPLACED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
(MAYBE UPPER 30S) WEST AND IN THE 50S CENTRAL...BUT HUMID AIR
LINGERING IN THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SMOKE ALOFT
FROM THE WESTERN US FIRES MAY DIM THE DAYTIME SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES EXCEPT
FOR JAMESTOWN AND WILLISTON. JAMESTOWN WILL BE EAST OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND THE RECORD HIGH OF 98 LOOKS SAFE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. AT WILLISTON THE RECORD HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 99
DEGREES...SET IN 2012. THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY AS
FORECAST HIGH SATURDAY IS 101. ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS...BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR
MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN
EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY
SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE SMOKE
LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION SMOKE
IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
AS WE MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS
OF NOW A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WINDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT
INDICATING SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A MAX OF
AROUND 20 MPH AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT.
THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
LATER SHIFTS CAN INTERROGATE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE OR AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP EVEN LOWER ON SATURDAY. IF
SO...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED. COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S GGW BYZ AND UNR AND THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT
WINDS WERE CURRENTLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...TWH



000
FXUS63 KBIS 281622
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LIKELY TO LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THOUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE SUPERCELL STORM IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA HAS A BAND OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ADDED SOME
CLOUDS NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD SOON
DISSIPATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTH CENTRAL...OTHERWISE DRY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND WILL KEEP THIS THROUGH 15 UTC. RAISED
SKY COVER A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE BORDER OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD PERSISTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND WAS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME CONVECTION THAT APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE STORMS MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF BOTTINEAU COUNTY AND INTO
ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNRISE THERE.

AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MAKE
FOR A POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. HAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM CDT.

LATER THIS MORNING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
THIS OCCURS AS THE MORE HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY REACHING
THE LOWER 90S WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SHOULD BE REPLACED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
(MAYBE UPPER 30S) WEST AND IN THE 50S CENTRAL...BUT HUMID AIR
LINGERING IN THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SMOKE ALOFT
FROM THE WESTERN US FIRES MAY DIM THE DAYTIME SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES EXCEPT
FOR JAMESTOWN AND WILLISTON. JAMESTOWN WILL BE EAST OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND THE RECORD HIGH OF 98 LOOKS SAFE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. AT WILLISTON THE RECORD HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 99
DEGREES...SET IN 2012. THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY AS
FORECAST HIGH SATURDAY IS 101. ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS...BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR
MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN
EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY
SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. A SHALLOW INVERSION HAS LESS POTENTIAL TO CAPTURE THE SMOKE
LAYER AND BRING IT LOWER TO THE SURFACE. WILL NOT MENTION SMOKE
IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT. IF SMOKE DOES OCCUR AT THE SURFACE
CURRENT THINKING IS IT SHOULD NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 5
MILE. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
AS WE MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS
OF NOW A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WINDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT
INDICATING SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A MAX OF
AROUND 20 MPH AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT.
THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
LATER SHIFTS CAN INTERROGATE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE OR AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP EVEN LOWER ON SATURDAY. IF
SO...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED. COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S GGW BYZ AND UNR AND THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT
WINDS WERE CURRENTLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
FIRE WEATHER...TWH




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