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000
FXUS63 KFGF 271148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI









000
FXUS63 KFGF 271148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI









000
FXUS63 KFGF 271148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI









000
FXUS63 KFGF 271148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI









000
FXUS63 KFGF 271148
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (RAP AND
HOPWRF)...CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR.
STILL EXPECT MORE SUN OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE HOW SKY TRENDS EVOLVE
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES
AT KDVL. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING PRECIP TIMING.
RIGHT NOW LIMITED -SHRA MENTION TO KDVL AND KGFK. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND RATHER VARIABLE OVER THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER N/NW WINDS AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA







000
FXUS63 KBIS 271138
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RADARS SHOWING AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALSO PERSIST.
SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270839
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM THE N RRV BACK
THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHERE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE.

EARLY AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT...WHICH
WILL SWING ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
WAVE SWINGS THROUGH...THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOSTLY BEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN ND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. IN
THE FACE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH E ND
THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT A QUICK EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER WAVE STILL BACK WEST OVER E MT
BY 12Z. THUS...SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF POPS A BIT MORE DURING
THE DAY...AND STILL MAY BE TOO FAST WITH THE PROGRESSION. THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS STILL BACK
OUT OVER MT...WHILE IT APPEARS THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. OVERALL...THE DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GRADUALLY LOWERING POPS TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN TO THE
WEST...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
WARMEST FROM SE ND UP THROUGH NW MN...WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. TODAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE CLOUD TRENDS MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
SOME 70S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER AREAS.

ANY REMAINING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY WILL END AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A VERY DRY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PW LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES)...SO EXPECT
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW CIRRUS. WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS.
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE DOWN NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S INTO THE RRV LOOK REASONABLE...WITH
MOST SPOTS AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO 70.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY AN
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
(ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS). THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT
EVENT. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ANY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS
(TIMING UNCERTAIN). TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WILL START OUT WITH CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EAST ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL
WITH HOW FAST THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. SAME STORY FOR ANY
PCPN...SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW ON HOW FAST ANY CLOUDS OR PCPN
MOVE EAST MONDAY AND MON NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BUT THAT ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW
FAST THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES MOVE EAST TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KBIS 270837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ONCE AGAIN RAIN...CLOUDS AND FOG.

RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
IS CREATING FOGGY CONDITIONS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
BASIC CHARACTERISTIC OF THE FLOW ALOFT FOR THE RECENT PAST IS ONE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER PRECIPITATION. THE
FORECAST FLOW WILL RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE ONE BUT LITTLE
MOISTURE IS SEEN SO LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED HOWEVER WARMER WEATHER
WILL BE ON ITS WAY. MODELS AGREE INITIALLY IN BUILDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WITH A CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA EXITING THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A TROUGH
COMING ONSHORE THAT WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. SOME RAIN POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT FEEL IT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN AT ALL. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S
TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ONLY
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE OFFING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT BY SUNDAY...BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270536
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PCPN CONTINUES TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FA SO CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FAR EAST AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS THERE ARE POCKETS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WHERE TEMPS ARE
QUITE A BIT WARMER. SO THERE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE SOME
WIDE VARIATIONS OVER SHORT DISTANCES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS BEING
REPORTED AT CANDO. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY STATION REPORTING ANY
SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WILL START OUT WITH CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EAST ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL
WITH HOW FAST THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. SAME STORY FOR ANY
PCPN...SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW ON HOW FAST ANY CLOUDS OR PCPN
MOVE EAST MONDAY AND MON NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BUT THAT ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW
FAST THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES MOVE EAST TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 270437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PCPN CONTINUES TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FA SO CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY ACROSS THE
FAR EAST AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS THERE ARE POCKETS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WHERE TEMPS ARE
QUITE A BIT WARMER. SO THERE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE SOME
WIDE VARIATIONS OVER SHORT DISTANCES OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG IS BEING
REPORTED AT CANDO. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY STATION REPORTING ANY
SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WILL START OUT WITH CIRRUS AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO PUSH EAST ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE WELL
WITH HOW FAST THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. SAME STORY FOR ANY
PCPN...SO CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW ON HOW FAST ANY CLOUDS OR PCPN
MOVE EAST MONDAY AND MON NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...BUT THAT ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW
FAST THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES MOVE EAST TOO.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 270240
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON








000
FXUS63 KFGF 270235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ECHOES ON RADAR CONTINUE TO DRY UP OR MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
FA. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM12 SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SO WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR TONIGHT.
NOT EVEN SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH AROUND MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL
AWAIT MORE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO SEE WHAT IT HAS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BACKING UP TO THE WEST AGAIN...CLEARING OUT
OF THE KDVL AREA. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THRU THE NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CLOUDS END UP. IF
THEY HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THERE.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20S AGAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN FA UNTIL MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DRY LATE NIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BACKING UP TO THE WEST AGAIN...CLEARING OUT
OF THE KDVL AREA. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THRU THE NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CLOUDS END UP. IF
THEY HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THERE.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20S AGAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN FA UNTIL MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DRY LATE NIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BACKING UP TO THE WEST AGAIN...CLEARING OUT
OF THE KDVL AREA. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THRU THE NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CLOUDS END UP. IF
THEY HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THERE.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20S AGAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN FA UNTIL MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DRY LATE NIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262350
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE BACKING UP TO THE WEST AGAIN...CLEARING OUT
OF THE KDVL AREA. WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THRU THE NIGHT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CLOUDS END UP. IF
THEY HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH MILDER THERE.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20S AGAIN. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO
NOT BRING ANY PCPN INTO OUR WESTERN FA UNTIL MONDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PCPN IN THE WEST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DRY LATE NIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE EXPECTED PCPN...CONTINUE TO SLOW
DOWN ITS PROGRESS TO THE EAST IN THE TAFS. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD AND REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PCPN REACHING THE
KDVL TAF SITE UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
ONLY SEE CIRRUS OR MID CLOUDS WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...GODON







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SWATH OF RAIN NOTED ON AREA RADARS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CIGS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLOWLY ON MONDAY...THOUGH KDIK MAY REMAIN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST AT KJMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER KDIK AND KISN
THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO KMOT LATER TONIGHT. AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST INTO KBIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER KDIK AND KISN
THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO KMOT LATER TONIGHT. AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST INTO KBIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER KDIK AND KISN
THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO KMOT LATER TONIGHT. AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST INTO KBIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 262034
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY.

UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND AS MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
JUST EAST OF MINOT TO JUST WEST OF BISMARCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALONG
AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL EVENTUALLY START TO
SPREAD EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT FINALLY PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL BE THE BOOST TO FINALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...ALBEIT SLOWLY. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH READINGS IN
THE MID 40S. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS AREA AND
TO THE WEST WHERE RAIN WILL BE FALLING.

ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUDS AND GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM MINOT TO DICKINSON IN THE MORNING...TO
AROUND BOTTINEAU AND RUGBY...SOUTHWEST TO BISMARCK AROUND MIDDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. WITH THIS
SCENARIO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST WITH LOW TO MID 50
READINGS (MAYBE EVEN SOME 40S LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY IN THE
SOUTHWEST) FROM AROUND BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE SOUTHWEST TO
BISMARCK AND HETTINGER. WARMER AGAIN MONDAY IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z TUESDAY. A CLEAR SKY WILL DEVELOP FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
ADVANCE OF A 700MB-500MB RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL CREST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKE FIRM
CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY ACROSS
ALL  OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE GFS
AND ECMWF EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE GFS ALREADY HAS IT EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...WHEREAS YESTERDAYS GFS
MODEL RUN WAS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM/ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...MUCH LIKE WHAT THE GFS WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.
THUS...WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION...DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS. THEREAFTER...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER KDIK AND KISN
THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO KMOT LATER TONIGHT. AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST INTO KBIS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT...KJMS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 262000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
ENTERING THE SASKATCHEWAN/EASTERN MONTANA AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THEY ALL BRING A VERY WEAK SFC TROUGH INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB AND BELOW
STARTING TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTHWESTERN ND TOWARDS THE WESTERN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARDS MORNING. MOST OF OUR PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING IN CLOSER TO 12Z...BUT STARTED RAMPING UP POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIP VERY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST AND THE
BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...SO KEPT MAINLY
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE EASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A BIT LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S WHILE THE CLOUDIER
WEST WILL STAY IN THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND SHOULD STAY
IN THE 50S...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT READINGS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THEIR COLD AIR ADVECTION
MODERATED BY CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WINDS SO KEPT TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NOT MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO START THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING E WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA...AND HELP BOOST
HIGH TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PCPN...AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUDS/POPS/TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN INTO FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY
NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CLODS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPEAR TO BE THINNING
SOME. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z WRF LOOKED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY
BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SHIFTING HIGHER POPS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN
HERE AND WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP FROM
JAMESTOWN DOWN TO ELLENDALE AND OAKES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KMOT THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK MINOT SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH A VARIABLE CEILING
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KDIK IN RAIN AND FOG. EXPECT MAINLY LOWER
VFR CEILINGS AT KBIS AND KISN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN
TRENDING TO ALL MVFR LATER TONIGHT. KJMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUDS/POPS/TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN INTO FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY
NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CLODS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPEAR TO BE THINNING
SOME. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z WRF LOOKED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY
BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SHIFTING HIGHER POPS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN
HERE AND WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP FROM
JAMESTOWN DOWN TO ELLENDALE AND OAKES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KMOT THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK MINOT SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH A VARIABLE CEILING
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KDIK IN RAIN AND FOG. EXPECT MAINLY LOWER
VFR CEILINGS AT KBIS AND KISN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN
TRENDING TO ALL MVFR LATER TONIGHT. KJMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES TO CLOUDS/POPS/TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN INTO FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 60S OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY
NEAR 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH CLODS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL APPEAR TO BE THINNING
SOME. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z WRF LOOKED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY
BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SHIFTING HIGHER POPS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN
HERE AND WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP FROM
JAMESTOWN DOWN TO ELLENDALE AND OAKES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS FROM KDIK TO KMOT THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK MINOT SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR...WITH A VARIABLE CEILING
BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR AT KDIK IN RAIN AND FOG. EXPECT MAINLY LOWER
VFR CEILINGS AT KBIS AND KISN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN
TRENDING TO ALL MVFR LATER TONIGHT. KJMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO MOVE EAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S LATER TODAY...BUT WILL WATCH
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF IT DOESN`T PAN OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S LATER TODAY...BUT WILL WATCH
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF IT DOESN`T PAN OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S LATER TODAY...BUT WILL WATCH
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF IT DOESN`T PAN OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261745
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT MORE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY HANGING AROUND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THE CURRENT
MOMENT. THINK THAT THIS AREA WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S LATER TODAY...BUT WILL WATCH
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF IT DOESN`T PAN OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND REMAINS IN THE DVL BASIN...BUT STILL EXPECT
VFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PASS DVL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SWITCH TO THE NW...WITH
LITTLE PCPN ANTICIPATED ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261454
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z WRF LOOKED TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP.
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. PRECIP EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY
BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SHIFTING HIGHER POPS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S. ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN
HERE AND WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP FROM
JAMESTOWN DOWN TO ELLENDALE AND OAKES.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. RAIN SHOWERS OVER KMOT/KBIS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING...AND REDEVELOP OVER KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 261435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND CLOUDS...AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN BENSON AND TOWNER COUNTIES BUT WILL
KEEP SOME CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS A BIT LONGER IN CASE THERE IS
SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN
WASHING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. RAIN SHOWERS OVER KMOT/KBIS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING...AND REDEVELOP OVER KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 261150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. RAIN SHOWERS OVER KMOT/KBIS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING...AND REDEVELOP OVER KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. RAIN SHOWERS OVER KMOT/KBIS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING...AND REDEVELOP OVER KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 261150
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SHOWERS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SO REMOVED POPS
WEST WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND NO REPORTS OF PRECIP. NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS MY WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
CLEARING SILL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)

ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS. RAIN SHOWERS OVER KMOT/KBIS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING...AND REDEVELOP OVER KDIK/KISN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ/NH







000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG




000
FXUS63 KFGF 261130
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THIS PERIOD (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE CIRRUS). WEST OF
THE VALLEY (KDVL)...CURRENT 4000FT CIGS WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL AFTER 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ








000
FXUS63 KBIS 260916
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS RAIN AND CLOUDS
TODAY/TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE
SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO ENTERED SOUTHERN CANADA AND LEFT A WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE 00 UTC NSSL AND NCEP WRF RUNS
CAPTURE THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA QUITE WELL THIS
MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY ERODE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE NEARS. MEANWHILE
ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER WILL STRUGGLE
TO REBOUND MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TWO DISTINCT S/WV`S AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
POPS MONDAY-MONDAY EVE WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOMETIME AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY.

RETURN FLOW AND STRONG WAA WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ALLOWING FLOW ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST. STRONG S/WV TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PROCEEDS EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AM AND INTO/THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ADVERTISED (500-800J/KG). THIS
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING CONSIDERING THE STRONG SFC AND MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ









000
FXUS63 KFGF 260815
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THROUGH MID-MORNING...THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (HRRR...RAP...HOPWRF) INDICATES THAT THESE
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF TOWNER...BENSON...AND EDDY
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ENFORCES LEADING TO THE CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CLEARING (AND ENDING SHOWER CHANCES). THERE WILL BE A DRY AIRMASS
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WITH SOLAR EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS (POSSIBLY EVEN 70F
WITHIN THE VALLEY).

MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD LONGER THUS DELAYING
SHOWER CHANCES. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH ON MONDAY...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WEAKENING FORCING AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THIS REGION. STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FA...WITH MORE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA.
ANTICIPATE A DECENT BAND OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA ON MONDAY...SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN. TEMPS AT LEAST UP INTO THE 70S (WITH
SOME DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LATE APRIL AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KBIS 260526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ONLY UPDATES MADE WERE TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260526
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUDS...PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH THIS EVENING...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ONLY UPDATES MADE WERE TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT/KBIS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO 10 PM UPDATE PLANNED. UPDATE FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDS IN THE
AERODROMES FOR THE VALLEY AND SITES IN MINNESOTA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS OVER CNTRL ND MAY GET INTO DVL AREA TOMORROW EVENING...BUT
DRY AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD THOSE SHOWERS BACK. PUT A MENTION
(VCSH) IN FOR TOMORROW EVENING AS CONFIDENCE OF ON STATION PRECIP
IS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT. CIGS LIKELY WILL BE VFR OR UPPER MVFR
RANGE TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 260319
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
DOING WELL WITH INHERITED MINIMUM TEMP FCST SO HAVE USED RUC FOR
GUIDANCE ON WIND AND HOURLY TEMPS. ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY MADE AT 7 PM
WORKED OUT WELL SO NO FURTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 260234
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
934 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. ONLY UPDATES MADE WERE TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER






000
FXUS63 KFGF 252354
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST UPDATE WILL ADDRESS MINOR SKY ISSUES...WITH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA CLEARING OUT A BIT MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED.
WITH MID LVL DECK WELL OFF TO WEST...WILL DECREASE SKY OVER ERN ND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252336
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 252336
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 252336
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 252336
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...WITH LCL IFR CIGS OVER FAR WESTERN
ND...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SHRA
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KJMS WHERE CIGS
MAY RISE TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KBIS 252032
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
332 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AVIATION
CONCERNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER WASHINGTON STATE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.

AS THE NORTHERN WAVE LIFTS INTO CANADA...A VORT LOBE WILL HELP
PROPAGATE THE NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN
SETTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY...INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER TODAY...ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ONE GETTING CLOSE TO THE
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING THE SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND THE NAM12/MESOSCALE MODELS IN HOW THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVES TONIGHT. THE GFS/EC KEEP
THIS ENERGY SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE WHICH
RESULTS IN SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR BISMARCK...AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST MAKE IT TO
AROUND MINOT...MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN LOBE. THE
NAM/MESO MODELS TRY TO MELD THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM LOBE AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TRACKS FARTHER
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA...WHILE THE SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AFTER THIS EVENING...MAKING IT NO FARTHER EAST THAN
BOTTINEAU AND HETTINGER UP THROUGH DICKINSON. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL SOLUTION WHICH WILL BRING AT LEAST A THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO THE BISMARCK AREA AROUND 12 UTC SUNDAY.

DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING POPS BACK
BEHIND THE LOBE THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY DRY
OUT ALONG THEIR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE DAY. THUS ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BISMARCK AND MINOT AREA WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A COOL AND DAMP DAY THERE. HAVE
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE WEST FOR SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ONE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH ATOP A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT FROM SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL. THIS WILL GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL. A 700MB-500MB BUBBLE RIDGE WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE SUPPRESSED MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
GRADUALLY EXITS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WINDS VEER FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE TREND IS FOR
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS HOLD TOGETHER AS WE GET CLOSER.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARMING NICELY TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST WITH THE CLEARING SKY AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COOLEST MORNING LOWS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WITH UPPER 30S.
THEREAFTER EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND POSSIBLY KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH








000
FXUS63 KFGF 252002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 252002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER AS DRIER AIR HAS
BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME CU REDEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART THE MINNESOTA SIDE HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA STILL SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS. THE RAP
925-850MB RH FIELD HAS BEEN DOING DECENT WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND IT HAS THE HIGHER RH VALUES SLOWLY MOVING WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS COMING IN THROUGH
WESTERN ND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
THINK THE CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE 40S WHILE THE EAST WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES...DROPPING DOWN BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO COME IN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ENTERING CENTRAL ND...BUT ALL HAVE THE PRECIP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS. KEPT
READINGS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST
CONTINUED DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST.
INCLUDED SOME SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER NORTH AMERICA
WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE FOR
RISING MOTION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED. LEANED TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/NAM RATHER THAN THE
WETTER INTERNATIONAL MODELS GIVEN THE TENDENCY LATELY FOR
OVERDOING RAIN. WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S IN MOST
OF THE CWA BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD STAY IN THE 50S
WITH RAIN COMING IN EARLIER. MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GEM NOT SHOWING AS STRONG A RIDGE AS
THE OUTLIER...SO FAVORED AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO THE MID 70S. OTHERWISE...THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 251755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251755
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WAS TEMPERATURES AND SKY
COVER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE
WARMEST AREA COULD BE THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AND COULD GET A BIT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDING UP
LATER. LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THINK ITS A LONG SHOT LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS...MAYBE SOME
THUNDER DISSIPATING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA 23-02 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER KDIK-KISN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST TO KMOT
AND PROBABLY JUST WEST AND NORTH OF KBIS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FASTER TO CLEAR OUT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
REACHING THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED SKIES TO MAKE THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOVE THE
CLOUDINESS A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE MID 50S SO BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT TO THE 60 MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...HOPKINS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251739
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FASTER TO CLEAR OUT...WITH THE CLEARING LINE
REACHING THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED SKIES TO MAKE THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA PARTLY CLOUDY AND MOVE THE
CLOUDINESS A BIT FURTHER WEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE MID 50S SO BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT TO THE 60 MARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 21-00Z FROM
EAST TO WEST...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO
BRINGING DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...HOPKINS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING EAST...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN WEST OF KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KBIS 251523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING EAST...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN WEST OF KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING EAST...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN WEST OF KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH







000
FXUS63 KBIS 251523
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO AN
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS AND NEW NAM INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND TODAY...WITH SHOWERS SLOW TO REACH THE WESTERN BORDER. WILL
BUMP UP SKY COVER AND PUSH BACK POPS CHANCES IN THE WEST UNTIL 21
UTC. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. MAY NEED TO RE-VISIT
TEMPERATURES WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

NO MAJOR EDITS TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS TRY
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SEEM LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG
PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SOUTHWEST WHERE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUD COVER
AND FOG...LEADING TO AVIATION ISSUES. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTING IN VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 2/3 OF NORTH DAKOTA IS COVERED. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY TO MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
INDICATE CLOUD COVER AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS FORCING BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT.

THE LATEST TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO DELAY PRECIPITATION FROM
ENTERING NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
TRENDS FROM EARLIER FORECAST UPDATES AND PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES
EVEN FURTHER WESTWARD AND DELAYED ONSET. HOWEVER...UNLIKE
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00 AND 06 UTC MODELS BRING AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CANADIAN BOARDER. AS SUCH INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A BAND OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VERY
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES (SURFACE LOW...LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT WEST...ETC.) EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY...SEVERAL HOURS
OF MUCH NEED LIGHT RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE ORIGINATING FROM
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL ROTATE NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS MY WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST
BY MONDAY 12Z. BEST VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL
MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS THERE SUNDAY DAYTIME. FRONT STARTS TO
ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
WEST AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST.

FOR EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES AND PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...RE-ENERGIZING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
WEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING EAST...BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN WEST OF KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH






000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 251447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR
WILL BE MOVING IN AND WHAT LITTLE FOG THERE WAS IN THE WEST HAS
DISSIPATED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AS THEY ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST FOR THE NOON UPDATE DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER AIR OVER ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARDS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NE KS THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES RIGHT NOW...BUT HOW FAST
CLEARING OCCURS FROM THE EAST WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NAM/RAP...START TO ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK OVER NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SPREADING WESTWARD TONIGHT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR THOUGH. ASSUMING CLOUDS PERSIST MUCH OF THE
DAY...TEMPS MAY RISE ONLY MODESTLY...EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY MILD
START TO THE DAY. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT TEMPS LIKELY WILL BE COOLEST OVER PARTS OF NW
MN...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
CLEAR...WHILE MORE CLOUDS FARTHER WEST MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
ND NEAR A SFC BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A
VERY DRY COLUMN TO THE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT WARM CONSIDERABLY FROM TODAY...MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEEK INTO THE N PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST DURING THIS TIME AIDED BY THE UPPER WAVE. THERE ARE
STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES...WITH THE
NAM/GFS SLOWER THAN THE GEM/ECMWF. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND AN INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN. FOR NOW KEPT POPS HIGHEST OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN MONDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED. HIGHS ON
MONDAY COULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOWERS WILL IMPACT TEMPS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE
STRONGER WITH ANY UPPER WAVES RIDING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING UPPER WAVES TO RIDE THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER...AND
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE FROM
THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF CLOUD
TRENDS IS RATHER LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...TG/JM
AVIATION...JM






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