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000
FXUS63 KBIS 010535
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. THESE
COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. THE LATEST HRRR
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION BY PROGGING THIS LINE FIZZLING OUT AROUND
06Z.

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD HOURLY POP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ





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000
FXUS63 KFGF 010429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED...SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR...BUT FOR NOW FEEL ITS NOT WORTH
A MENTION WITH THE HRRR NOT INDICATING ANY LOW VSBYS...BUT
SOMETHING FOR THE MID SHIFT TO WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATER
TONIGHT WHERE IT CLEAR. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL MENTION SOME VCSH
IN THE 19-3Z TIMEFRAME...BUT HOLD OF ON THUNDER MENTION WITH
FAIRLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 010235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. THE LATEST HRRR
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION BY PROGGING THIS LINE FIZZLING OUT AROUND
06Z.

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD HOURLY POP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 010235
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL WATCH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE
FA...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 312343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM




000
FXUS63 KBIS 312343
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KFGF 312333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A BIT THROUGH 6Z...AND DRY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 312333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A BIT THROUGH 6Z...AND DRY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KBIS 312026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 312026
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 312005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





000
FXUS63 KFGF 312005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KFGF 311743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FIRST UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE E/NE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO CANADA. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ASSOCIATED PRECIP) THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO THE FA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
INITIATING ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. THIS MAY CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE
FEED AND ANY SHOWERS THAT ADVECT INTO THIS FA SHOULD DISSIPATE.

ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST POPS/WX TO ABOVE THINKING...NOT MUCH CHANGE
NEEDED.

LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA
BASED ON CONTINUED THICKER CLOUD COVER.

ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH....BUT STRONGER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLEARING HAS REMAINED SOUTH...AND WILL NEED SOME HEATING TO OBTAIN
STRONG ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...SPEICHER




000
FXUS63 KBIS 311735
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. OF TO THE
WEST...SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO RE-DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH HIT-AND-MISS SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED LOW POPS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY VIS/CIG
RESTRICTIONS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KJMS TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 311444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER) MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FORCING WILL
PROPAGATE E/NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (AS
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES IN THIS DIRECTION). ADJUSTED POPS/WX
ACCORDINGLY (RAISED POP VALUES TO NEAR 100% WHERE THIS STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWERED POP VALUES TO 10%-20% FOR OTHER
AREAS).

SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOST NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. IN FACT...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA...AND THAT ANY NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EAST OF THIS FA. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW INSTABILITY SETS
UP (WHERE ANY CLEARING MIGHT OCCUR)...AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE
SFC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER AND STRONG THUNDER
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT SHOULD
KNOW MORE BY THE 100PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS (ISOLD THUNDER) MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS FORCING WILL
PROPAGATE E/NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (AS
UPPER WAVE PROPAGATES IN THIS DIRECTION). ADJUSTED POPS/WX
ACCORDINGLY (RAISED POP VALUES TO NEAR 100% WHERE THIS STRONGER
FORCING IS EXPECTED...AND LOWERED POP VALUES TO 10%-20% FOR OTHER
AREAS).

SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK EASTWARD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOST NEWER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS. IN FACT...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA...AND THAT ANY NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EAST OF THIS FA. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW INSTABILITY SETS
UP (WHERE ANY CLEARING MIGHT OCCUR)...AND EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE
SFC TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDER AND STRONG THUNDER
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR QUITE LOW...BUT SHOULD
KNOW MORE BY THE 100PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JAMESTOWN TO HARVEY TO BOTTINEAU.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS...AND HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS SOME WEAK SHOWERS START TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THAT AREA. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED PATCHY FOG COVERAGE
FOR THE MORNING AS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED OVER A VARIETY OF
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 311210
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHEAST 30KTS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNDER 700 MB CAA. AREA HAS GRADUALLY SLOWED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING.
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS AIDED BY 850MB MOIST TRANSPORT AND 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS. LATEST HRRR AND 03Z HOPWRF SUPPORT THESE
TRENDS THROUGH 18Z. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/WX/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND HIGH-RES MODEL FCSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TYPICAL MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS FOUND IN THE PRESENCE OF TSRA
AND SHRA AS AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KTS. SFC
LOW AND ASSOC WNDSHFT FCST TO MOVE TO KGFK...KFAR LINE 19Z TO
20Z...REACHING KBJI AROUND 010200Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
NORTHEAST TAF SITES...EXPCT VFR CIGS AND VSBY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EWENS
SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...EWENS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 311139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVLOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 311139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVLOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA









000
FXUS63 KBIS 310859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA








000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION AND
RISK FOR SEVERE. AS OF 08Z A LINE OF TSRA EXTENDED FROM
KDVL...KS32 TO KGWR MOVG EAST 35 KTS. THIS LINE IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING THE
LOWER LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM12 AND GFS40 HAD BEEN INCREASING THE
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR TO NEAR 50KTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...WHICH
DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE THE CASE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THE TSRA
ACROSS THE CWFA THIS FIRST 12 HOURS BLENDING INHERITED FCST AND
HRRR/NAM/WRF MODEL MOVEMENT.

THE FIRST WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MOVES EAST BY
18Z...WITH SECOND FAST WAVE MOVING INTO WY AS OF 08Z. AS THE UPPER
WAVES ARE PROGRESSIVE AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH-RES MODELS...HAVE TRENDED THE BULK OF THE
TSRA/RASH OVER THE EASTERN HALF CWFA BY 00Z. MAY HAVE HELD ON TO
POPS TOO LONG POST 18Z...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ATTM.
THE FCST PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY 18Z-
00Z ARGUES FOR HOLDING ONTO POPS.

SECOND SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FA 00Z TO 06Z MONDAY SO HAVE HELD ON TO CHC POPS THROUGH 06Z
THEN ENDED RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...THICKNESSES ARE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER THE SOUTH TO SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HAVE USED THE
LOCAL BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE MODEL FOR TODAY - TUESDAY AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE SUPERIOR SKILL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FLOW ALOFT TURNS FLAT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND SECOND WAVE BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT FALL APPRECIABLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION IMPACTS THE SOUTHERN CWFA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST NEXT WAVE FOR TUESDAY FOCUSED MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ONLY
CHC POPS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THEN MOVING OFF
INTO MANITOBA BY THURSDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF PRECIP WITH A BOUNDARY NEARBY...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING IN THE EST INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...SO KEPT ALLBLEND POPS FOR THE TIME BEING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWENS
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...DK/EWENS






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310549
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NOW ONLY EXPECT AREAS OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO BRING THE
POPS INTO CONFORMITY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

0530Z A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PROGRESSING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KMOT-KBIS-KJMS WILL INITIALLY
BE IMPACTED BY THE STORMS. AFTER 08Z THE LINE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF KMOT-KBIS AND THEN AFTER 10Z AT KJMS. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING
IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE CENTRAL AND EAST.
OTHERWISE ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310449
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.
CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS A RESULT.

ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND...AND SHOULD ENTER THE
FAR WESTERN FA AROUND 6Z. I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRENGTH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...WITH PWATS RISING FROM
0.7 CURRENTLY TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.
THIS COUPLED WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG OF 850MB CAPE AND A VERY TIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ONCE CONVECTION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. THE MCS IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND...AND SHOULD ENTER THE
FAR WESTERN FA AROUND 6Z. I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT STRENGTH OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT...WITH PWATS RISING FROM
0.7 CURRENTLY TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE VALLEY BY 12Z SUN.
THIS COUPLED WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG OF 850MB CAPE AND A VERY TIGHT
MOISTURE ADVECTION GRADIENT COULD CAUSE SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ONCE CONVECTION
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED MENTION NEAR BJI UNTIL IT GOES
AWAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD RE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COOL FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
INTO VFR RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310422
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310422
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
THE WATCH AS A RESULT. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310258
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM








000
FXUS63 KBIS 310250
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
AS A RESULT...REMOVED BILLINGS...SLOPE...AND BOWMAN COUNTIES FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
HETTINGER AND ADAMS COUNTIES SOUTH OF DICKINSON. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 310058
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 310058
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478 TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT / 1 AM
MDT SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 310001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK






000
FXUS63 KFGF 310001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH. THE
LLJ WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE MCS INTO THE WESTERN AREAS AROUND 6-9Z...THEN INTO THE
VALLEY IN THE 10-12Z TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE STRONG 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWALTERS AROUND -3C...ALONG WITH PWATS
RISING OVER 1.5 INCHES LATE. OUR CURRENT GRIDS ARE DRY UNTIL
6Z...AND THIS TIMING SEEMS VERY CLOSE...SO WON/T ADD ANYTHING
EARLIER AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AN MCS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK







000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR OBS/TRENDS AND HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT...SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY A FEW HOURS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG CURRENTLY NOSING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FURTHERMORE...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT KEEPING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
A MINIMUM AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP SEVERE MENTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM





000
FXUS63 KBIS 302017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








000
FXUS63 KBIS 302017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INITIAL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. SECONDARY WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA/EASTERN
WYOMING.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...INITIAL SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER TO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERNS COME LATER ON AS AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH...PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(1-1.5 KJ/KG CAPE VALUES) COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THRU THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

ON SUNDAY...ANY LINGER PRECIP SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END AROUND
SUNRISE. NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES THE AREA
TOWARDS MID-DAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FLOW TRANSITIONS MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MID-WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHEN
ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/WV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN KEEP THE UPPER JET
STREAM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SAW
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CR ALLBLEND POPS WITH THE JET STREAM
ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

WE STILL DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW OTHER
THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

GETTING THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN FROST BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME NIGHTTIME DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER SO MORNING LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE THOSE VALUES WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP.
LATEST 12Z ECMWF DOES INDICATE A RATHER STRONG COLD FOR NEXT
SATURDAY WITH THE 850MB 0C DEGREE ISOTHERM NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT IS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER
MODELS. WILL OF COURSE MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS PARTICULAR RUN
GAINS SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE NEXT DAY OR SO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS









000
FXUS63 KFGF 301956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301956
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWING MAJORITY OF EASTERN ND WITH CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERN CWA STILL OVERCAST WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT
REFUSE TO BREAK UP. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NE AROUND
LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
OVER FAR NW MN AND ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HIGH IS NOT HELPING
BRING ANY DRIER AIR INTO THE OVC AREAS. RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN DAKOTAS. MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE TIMING ONSET OF WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MT HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET TOO FAR INTO NW ND. MODELS SHOWING MINOR
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE NAM THE DRIEST EARLY...AND THE GFS/ECMWF
MOST BULLISH WITH SUN PM CONVECTION. WILL USE A FCST BLEND FOR
THIS FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE A UPPER WAVE OVER PAC NW WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO
THE PLAINS. AN OPEN GULF WILL ALLOW STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12Z
MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY APPEARED. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
AS EARLY AS LATE SAT EVENING AND INCREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. HAVE
LIKELY POPS INTO THE WRN ZONES AFT 06Z...HOWEVER MAIN SHOW WILL BE
DRG THE DAY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS DAKOTAS AND INTO MN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SFC
LOW KICKING OUT OF WYOMING AND MOVING ACROSS SD AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SRN RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON EXACT
SPEED/TRACK HOWEVER IN GENERAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA MID DAY
WITH FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING INTO EASTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING
TOMORROW. THIS HEATING WILL BE DEPENDENT..OF COURSE...ON CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW. SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO BE
ENTERING WRN DAKOTAS FROM EASTERN MT SUN MORNING AND INTO MN EARLY
SUN EVENING. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE READILY AVAILABLE WITH MODELS
SHOWING STRONG H850 MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...MID 60 DEW POINTS POOLING ALONG SFC
BOUNDARY TOMORROW...AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR.
ASSOCIATED SFC BNDRY PROGGED TO ENTER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS (WESTERN
CWA) LATE SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...EXTENDING ACROSS NW AND W CNTRL MN BY MID AFTN. WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SVR
ACROSS MINNESOTA ON SUN AFTN. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR SHORT
WAVES BRINGING SOME PERIODS OF LOW POPS MON AFTN AND AGAIN
TUES...HOWEVER MODELS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME THUNDER TUE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...12Z MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A MORE OR LESS
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR AS MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER TIMES
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER W CNTRL MN
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AWAY...HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
PRECIP OVER ERN MT ALMOST INTO WILLISTON...ND AREA. 12Z GFS CAME
IN A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP IN WRN ZONES AND HAVE NOW REMOVED POPS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS CHANGES BEYOND 06Z AT NEXT
SCHEDULED DISCUSSION (21Z).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...TG






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301759
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWS NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER W CNTRL MN
FINALLY BEGINNING TO ERODE AWAY...HOWEVER A BIT SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON SKY COVER.
PRECIP OVER ERN MT ALMOST INTO WILLISTON...ND AREA. 12Z GFS CAME
IN A BIT SLOWER WITH PRECIP IN WRN ZONES AND HAVE NOW REMOVED POPS
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL DISCUSS CHANGES BEYOND 06Z AT NEXT
SCHEDULED DISCUSSION (21Z).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THESE CIGS WILL
CONTINUE AT KBJI FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
SOME BREAKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL BE VFR FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AT KBJI IS LOWER. THE
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...TG







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INITIAL WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS AS EXPECT
STRONGER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES. STILL HAVE SOME SEVERE CONCERNS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOCUS APPEARS MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH INITIAL WAVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THIS AS EXPECT
STRONGER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH SUBSEQUENT WAVES. STILL HAVE SOME SEVERE CONCERNS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOCUS APPEARS MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION...WDSPRD MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301503
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CURRENT VIS SHOWS SHARP BOUNDARY FROM CLEAR TO BKN-OVC DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE CELLULAR
AND EVENTUALLY DRY UP WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. ONLY
CHANGES TO TONIGHT PORTION WILL BE TO DELAY TSTM ACTIVITY UNTIL AT
LEAST 03Z BUT NO OTHER CHANGES UNTIL MORE 12Z DATA COMES IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM






000
FXUS63 KBIS 301437
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. EXPECT STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DO ITS APPROACH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING OF THIS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301148
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301148
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301148
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM







000
FXUS63 KBIS 301148
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REFINED THE FOG AREA BASED ON SATELLITE/SURFACE REPORTS. ROLLA IN
THE UPPER 30S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING REMAINS FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
FOG WILL BE IMPACTING PRIMARILY KBIS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG
COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS. LATER IN THE DAY A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA/MM







000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KFGF 301145
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS OBS AND WEB CAMS SHOW SOME SITES STILL WITH LOWER
VIS. CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THINK THEY
WILL START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THINK
THEY SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KDVL WHICH HAS BEEN GOING IN
AND OUT OF 1SM WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THINK THAT MOST SITES SHOULD BE VFR EXCEPT KBJI
WHICH MAY DROP TO MVFR. SOME STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCLUDED SOME VCTS MENTION AT
KDVL BUT A BIT SOON FOR THE FURTHER EAST SITES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...JR






000
FXUS63 KBIS 300906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW...FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE FOG WILL BE
KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG COULD BE DENSE
CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ONLY PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE 06 TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS. MORE DETAILS ON THE COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE 12Z AND 18Z TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM









000
FXUS63 KBIS 300906
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE SEVERE THREAT AND QPF TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE 00 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A POTENT SHORT
WAVE PROGRESSING WEST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW SHOULD SET UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES STRAIGHT WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING AND NIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELLS FOR LONG.

AS FOR QPF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF PLACING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FROM THERE
MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WILL FALL. THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM RUNS BY PLACING A BULLSEYE OF QPF IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA. FOR NOW STICKING WITH A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS
FOR THE QPF FORECAST AND WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THEY MERGE
INTO A MORE CONSENSUS TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN LATER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BROAD H500 COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WEATHER PROBLEMS WITH THIS FLOW BUT THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY AT 15 TO
25 MPH WINDS. MORNING LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BUT AS OF YET DO NOT SEE EARLY FROST ISSUES. BY THE MID TO END OF
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND A PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AT LEAST BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW...FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE FOG WILL BE
KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS THROUGH 14Z. AT TIMES FOG COULD BE DENSE
CAUSING LIFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ONLY PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. LATER IN THE 06 TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR
KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS. MORE DETAILS ON THE COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE 12Z AND 18Z TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM








000
FXUS63 KFGF 300843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...RIDDLE






000
FXUS63 KFGF 300843
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP TIMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF INTO WI AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
HEADS INTO MT. THE WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE REGION WEAKENS FURTHER
AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD BE PRETTY SUNNY. CONTINUED TO KEEP HIGHS GETTING
INTO THE 70S...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHEAST IF THE
CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED IT COULD BE A BIT
COOLER.

TONIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL COME OFF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SFC LOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER
06Z AND MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO 12Z. WENT A BIT SLOWER WITH POPS BUT
CONTINUED TO KEEP LIKELY VALUES COMING INTO OUR FAR WEST BY LATE
TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SFC LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE
IS LESS MODEL AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW
ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS HANG AROUND A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN HWO BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN BY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...BUT A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LEAVING THE CWA IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN TIER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A MODELS SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
TROUGH ALTHOUGH THEY CANNOT AGREE ON EXACT PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE VARIOUS MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLAT NORTHWEST FLOW
EARLY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A FLAT SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AS
MODERATELY STRONG 500MB S/W MOVES INTO PAC NW. TSRA/RASH NEAR INTNL
BORDER EARLY IN PERIOD ALONG BAROCLINIC RIBBON AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
UNDER EXIT REGION OF LIFTING JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
EARLY SEPTEMBER VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF [LOW-RES] AND GEM-NH ARE ABOUT 12-18HRS FASTER THAN THE
GFS WITH FROPA. EC/GEM HAVE THE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THURSDAY WHILE GFS HAS IT EXITING EASTERN CWFA 00Z FRI. DGEX
IS EVEN FASTER WITH SFC HIGH SQUARELY OVER CWFA 00Z FRI...SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THAT MODEL BEYOND 00Z THU. IF SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY COULD BE WELL ABOVE MEDIAN VALUES.

WITH DEPARTING JET/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND
DIFFERENT VORTICITY LIKE THE IDEA OF LOW POPS INTO FRI. TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK TO OR BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

INITIAL ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS AT
FARGO AND BEMIDJI TAF SITES. CLEARING MAKING ITS WAY INTO TVF/GFK
SITES ATTM AND WILL BE SCT-BKN AT TIMES 06Z-10Z PERIOD. WENT A BIT
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT FARGO-BEMIDJI AND KEPT IN MVFR CIGS AT FARGO
TIL JUST PAST DAYBREAK AND KEPT IFR AT BEMIDJI TIL PAST DAYBREAK
AS WELL AS COOL NORTH WINDS MOVE INTO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MAIN
DRYING STAYS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION. OTHERWISE


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/EWENS
AVIATION...RIDDLE







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