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000
SRUS43 KFGF 260119
RVAFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-
       125-135-159-167-
NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-
       095-097-099-261319-

Hydrolocic Summary
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
819 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

          ...River Summary for Saturday, June 25, 2016...


                  Red River of the North MN/ND

                    Flood     River     Change      Flow  Observation
Station             Stage     Stage   6hr   24hr    CFS*      Time
Wahpeton              11.0     4.60  -0.04  -0.24    526    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  942.97
Hickson               30.0    10.75  -0.01  -0.03    493    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  876.38
Fargo                 18.0    14.39  -0.03  -0.02    449    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  861.80                  water temp in Fahrenheit...78.3
Halstad               26.0     7.28   0.02   0.09   2119    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  826.65                  water temp in Fahrenheit...77.2
Grand Forks           28.0    17.37  -0.05  -0.16   3976    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  779.00                  water temp in Fahrenheit...76.0
Oslo                  26.0    11.67  -0.18  -0.71   5196    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  772.65
Drayton               32.0    19.28  -0.44  -1.71  11181    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  755.00
Pembina               39.0    27.97  -0.39  -1.38  15538    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  739.45
Emerson, MB            n/a   766.59  -0.40  -1.37  17959    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00
        * Flow estimated from most recent stage-dischrge rating.

                           Minnesota Tributaries

...Buffalo River South Branch, MN
Sabin                 13.0     5.05  -0.02   0.00     19    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  902.39

...Buffalo River, MN
Hawley                 8.0     3.53   0.02  -0.01     42    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1111.91
Dilworth              13.0     3.66  -0.02  -0.08     56    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  878.31

...Wild Rice River, MN
Twin Valley           10.0     2.10   0.03  -0.03     69    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1008.16
Hendrum               20.0     4.45   0.03  -0.01    123    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  836.75

...Marsh River, MN
Shelly                14.0     3.94  -0.02  -0.04      4    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  841.14

...Sandhill River, MN
Climax                20.0     4.37  -0.01  -0.05     29    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  820.10

...Red Lake River, MN
Highlanding           12.0     4.23   0.10   0.10    457    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1141.57
Crookston             15.0     6.07  -0.01   0.00   1066    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  832.72

...Snake River, MN
Above Warren          67.0    61.48  -0.06  -0.28     27    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  800.00
Alvarado             106.0    97.67  -0.13  -0.28     80    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  700.00

...Two Rivers River
Hallock              802.0   804.14  -0.30  -1.07   1710    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Roseau River, MN
Roseau                16.0     7.29  -0.10  -0.56    417    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1026.40

                       North Dakota Tributaries

...Wild Rice River, ND
Abercrombie           10.0     0.28  -0.01   0.00     11    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  907.94

...Sheyenne River, ND
Valley City           15.0     5.45  -0.10  -0.24    435    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1199.27
Lisbon                15.0     5.16  -0.11  -0.23    646    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1066.46
Kindred               16.0     6.98  -0.24  -0.80    901    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  925.55
West Fargo Diversion  18.0    10.66  -0.09  -0.25    515    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  876.78
Harwood              884.0   874.25  -0.07  -0.09   1473    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Maple River, ND
Enderlin               9.5     3.28  -0.07  -0.33    128    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1056.72                  water temp in Fahrenheit... n/a
Mapleton South of 94 905.0   896.45   0.01   0.07    278    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Goose River, ND
Hillsboro             10.0     2.61  -0.06  -0.12    376    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  879.52

...Forest River, ND
Minto                  6.0     3.37  -0.10  -0.30    653    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  806.95

...Park River, ND
Grafton               12.0     8.00  -0.02  -0.12    190    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  811.00

...Pembina River, ND
Walhalla              11.0     2.81   0.03   0.04    216    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:  934.00
Neche                 18.0     4.16  -0.02  -0.13    218    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:  809.69

                       Devils Lake Basin Lakes and Coulees

North Creel Bay        n/a  1449.95  -0.03   0.07    n/a    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00
Stump Lake State Park  n/a  1450.15  -0.02   0.03    n/a    Sat 7 PM
    Datum:    0.00
Little Cou nr Leeds    n/a    63.18   0.08   0.32     42    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1480.00
StarkWx Cou nr Webstr  n/a     2.68   0.05   0.07     72    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1448.00
Edmore Cou Trib-Webs   n/a    67.46   0.01   0.01     20    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1400.00
Mauvais Cou nr Cando   n/a     5.31   0.12   0.00     94    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1445.00
Mauvais Cou Trib #3    n/a     3.31  -0.05  -0.12    n/a    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1460.00
Edmore Cou @ Edmore    n/a    82.05  -0.01  -0.03     53    Sat 7 PM
    Datum: 1400.00
Morrison Lake nr Webs  n/a  1449.74  -0.38  -0.14    n/a    Sat 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00
Dry Lake nr Penn       n/a    49.88  -0.04  -0.06    n/a    Sat 8 PM
    Datum: 1400.00

  M - indicates missing data
 NA - indicates flood stage or current flow are not applicable
 Datum + Gauge reading = Mean Sea Level elevation of water surface.

These data are from automated gauges and should be considered
provisional.

*** for the latest lake and river conditions and forecasts***
                 please see our web page at...
            www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

$$
    weather.gov/fgf





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000
FGUS73 KFGF 251327
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

Probabalistic Hydrologic Ooutlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0826 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
           Valid from June 26, 2016 to September 24, 2016.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
               Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  14  36   <5  12   <5  <5
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  33  43   <5  10   <5   5
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  17   <5  <5   <5  <5
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  11  20    6  12   <5  <5
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :   8   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :   5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   8   9    6   8   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  20  28   <5  <5   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :   7  16   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :   5  22   <5  13   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  13  17   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :   8   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  11  10    9  <5   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 : >95  19   21  11    5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   7  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   5  10   <5   9   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :   6  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  06/26/2016 to 09/24/2016

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 7.6 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 11.5 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             5.1    5.1    5.3    7.6   10.5   11.5   12.5
  HICKSON             11.4   11.4   11.7   14.0   19.6   21.9   24.2
  FARGO               14.8   14.8   15.2   16.0   18.8   20.3   21.2
  HALSTAD              7.5    7.5    7.5   10.1   13.0   16.5   18.7
  GRAND FORKS         17.3   17.3   17.9   19.1   22.1   26.4   30.1
  OSLO                10.6   10.6   11.7   14.8   21.0   26.7   31.1
  DRAYTON             16.7   16.7   16.7   17.8   23.4   28.1   31.1
  PEMBINA             26.2   26.2   26.2   26.2   29.2   36.3   40.8


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.2    5.2    6.5    8.4   11.4   12.6   13.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.2    4.7    5.3    7.1    9.3
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.1    5.4    7.2   12.3   14.6   16.8
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.0    2.0    2.3    3.4    4.4    5.8    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.4    2.6    3.9    8.4   14.1   17.8   21.1
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.1    4.1    4.1    4.6    6.5    9.4   10.3
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.3    5.2    6.1    7.3    8.3   11.3   14.0
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         4.4    4.9    7.0   10.0   10.3   11.3   12.2
  CROOKSTON            7.2    7.2    8.4   10.4   13.2   15.3   17.0
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.5   61.5   61.9   62.5   63.7   65.6   70.4
  ALVARADO            99.3   99.3   99.3   99.5  102.1  106.7  109.3
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            803.5  803.5  803.5  803.5  805.0  807.8  810.1
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               7.3    7.3    7.3    8.4   10.5   15.0   16.4


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.1    0.1    0.3    1.5    3.6    7.8   10.2
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.3    5.3    5.3    5.8    7.1    9.0   11.3
  LISBON               4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    6.5    9.6   11.7
  KINDRED              6.6    6.6    6.6    6.6    8.3   11.7   14.5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    13.3   13.3   13.3   13.3   13.3   14.9   16.9
  HARWOOD            873.6  873.6  873.6  873.6  873.6  877.5  881.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    4.2    6.2    9.3
  MAPLETON           894.9  894.9  894.9  894.9  896.4  900.7  905.4
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.9    4.2    9.4
Forest River.....
  MINTO                3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.9    5.1    6.4
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.9    7.9    7.9    7.9    8.9   10.0   11.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             3.2    3.2    3.2    3.8    4.9    7.0    8.2
  NECHE                5.0    5.0    5.0    5.9    8.0   11.9   15.7

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                    from  06/26/2016 to 09/24/2016

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.7 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.4    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.5    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.9   10.5   10.1    9.9    9.7    9.6    9.6
  FARGO               14.6   14.3   14.1   13.9   13.8   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.8    4.6    3.9    3.3    3.0    2.6    2.4
  GRAND FORKS         16.2   15.9   15.7   15.6   15.5   15.2   15.0
  OSLO                 7.7    7.2    6.9    6.6    6.1    5.0    3.7
  DRAYTON             12.4   12.1   11.8   11.7   11.5   11.3   11.1
  PEMBINA             12.7   11.8   10.2    9.6    8.7    7.9    7.2


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2
  DILWORTH             3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.0    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.1
  HENDRUM              2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.0    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    0.6    0.6
  CROOKSTON            5.3    5.2    4.9    4.8    4.6    3.8    3.4
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.1   61.0   60.9   60.7   60.7   60.6   60.6
  ALVARADO            97.3   97.0   96.8   96.6   96.5   96.5   96.4
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            795.2  794.8  794.7  794.5  794.4  794.2  794.2
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               6.0    5.9    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE         -0.1   -0.2   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
  LISBON               2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6
  KINDRED              2.9    2.8    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.8    9.8    9.7    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6
  HARWOOD            867.7  867.6  867.1  866.9  866.7  866.6  866.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
  MAPLETON           894.7  894.6  894.5  894.4  894.4  894.4  894.4
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.2
  NECHE                3.4    3.0    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN







000
FGUS73 KFGF 251327
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

Probabalistic Hydrologic Ooutlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0826 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
           Valid from June 26, 2016 to September 24, 2016.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
               Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  14  36   <5  12   <5  <5
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  33  43   <5  10   <5   5
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :   7  17   <5  <5   <5  <5
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  11  20    6  12   <5  <5
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :   8   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :   5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :   8   9    6   8   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  20  28   <5  <5   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :   7  16   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :   5  22   <5  13   <5   7
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  13  17   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :   8   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  11  10    9  <5   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 : >95  19   21  11    5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :   7  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :   5  10   <5   9   <5  <5
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :  <5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :   6   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :   6  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  06/26/2016 to 09/24/2016

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 7.6 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 11.5 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             5.1    5.1    5.3    7.6   10.5   11.5   12.5
  HICKSON             11.4   11.4   11.7   14.0   19.6   21.9   24.2
  FARGO               14.8   14.8   15.2   16.0   18.8   20.3   21.2
  HALSTAD              7.5    7.5    7.5   10.1   13.0   16.5   18.7
  GRAND FORKS         17.3   17.3   17.9   19.1   22.1   26.4   30.1
  OSLO                10.6   10.6   11.7   14.8   21.0   26.7   31.1
  DRAYTON             16.7   16.7   16.7   17.8   23.4   28.1   31.1
  PEMBINA             26.2   26.2   26.2   26.2   29.2   36.3   40.8


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.2    5.2    6.5    8.4   11.4   12.6   13.0
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.6    3.8    4.2    4.7    5.3    7.1    9.3
  DILWORTH             3.9    4.1    5.4    7.2   12.3   14.6   16.8
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.0    2.0    2.3    3.4    4.4    5.8    7.9
  HENDRUM              2.4    2.6    3.9    8.4   14.1   17.8   21.1
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.1    4.1    4.1    4.6    6.5    9.4   10.3
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.3    5.2    6.1    7.3    8.3   11.3   14.0
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         4.4    4.9    7.0   10.0   10.3   11.3   12.2
  CROOKSTON            7.2    7.2    8.4   10.4   13.2   15.3   17.0
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.5   61.5   61.9   62.5   63.7   65.6   70.4
  ALVARADO            99.3   99.3   99.3   99.5  102.1  106.7  109.3
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            803.5  803.5  803.5  803.5  805.0  807.8  810.1
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               7.3    7.3    7.3    8.4   10.5   15.0   16.4


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.1    0.1    0.3    1.5    3.6    7.8   10.2
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.3    5.3    5.3    5.8    7.1    9.0   11.3
  LISBON               4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    6.5    9.6   11.7
  KINDRED              6.6    6.6    6.6    6.6    8.3   11.7   14.5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    13.3   13.3   13.3   13.3   13.3   14.9   16.9
  HARWOOD            873.6  873.6  873.6  873.6  873.6  877.5  881.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    4.2    6.2    9.3
  MAPLETON           894.9  894.9  894.9  894.9  896.4  900.7  905.4
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.9    4.2    9.4
Forest River.....
  MINTO                3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.9    5.1    6.4
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.9    7.9    7.9    7.9    8.9   10.0   11.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             3.2    3.2    3.2    3.8    4.9    7.0    8.2
  NECHE                5.0    5.0    5.0    5.9    8.0   11.9   15.7

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                    from  06/26/2016 to 09/24/2016

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 3.7 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.3 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             4.4    4.1    3.9    3.7    3.5    3.3    3.3
  HICKSON             10.9   10.5   10.1    9.9    9.7    9.6    9.6
  FARGO               14.6   14.3   14.1   13.9   13.8   13.6   13.6
  HALSTAD              4.8    4.6    3.9    3.3    3.0    2.6    2.4
  GRAND FORKS         16.2   15.9   15.7   15.6   15.5   15.2   15.0
  OSLO                 7.7    7.2    6.9    6.6    6.1    5.0    3.7
  DRAYTON             12.4   12.1   11.8   11.7   11.5   11.3   11.1
  PEMBINA             12.7   11.8   10.2    9.6    8.7    7.9    7.2


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.1    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2
  DILWORTH             3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.0    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.1
  HENDRUM              2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.0    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    0.6    0.6
  CROOKSTON            5.3    5.2    4.9    4.8    4.6    3.8    3.4
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        61.1   61.0   60.9   60.7   60.7   60.6   60.6
  ALVARADO            97.3   97.0   96.8   96.6   96.5   96.5   96.4
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            795.2  794.8  794.7  794.5  794.4  794.2  794.2
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               6.0    5.9    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE         -0.1   -0.2   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6   -0.6
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
  LISBON               2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6
  KINDRED              2.9    2.8    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5
  WEST FARGO DVRSN     9.8    9.8    9.7    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6
  HARWOOD            867.7  867.6  867.1  866.9  866.7  866.6  866.5
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
  MAPLETON           894.7  894.6  894.5  894.4  894.4  894.4  894.4
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.3    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.2
  NECHE                3.4    3.0    2.6    2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN







000
FGUS73 KFGF 251325
ESFFGF

NDC005-027-071-301200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
0822 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1450.1 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1450.2 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

               FROM JUNE 19, 2016 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2016

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY         1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.2
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.1 1450.2 1450.2


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1449.9 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1450.1 feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=floods&r=nd&w=map

. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes falling below given lake
levels...

  The probability of not exceeding a given lake level is the
   percentage of lake level falls that are below that level for
    all the years that were run through the model using the
     precipitation and temperatures for those years during the
      valid period of the outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will fall below 1447.9 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will fall below 1447.5 feet.

           Probabilities for non-exceeding listed lake levels

               FROM JUNE 19, 2016 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2016

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Devils Lake.....
  CREEL BAY         1448.8 1448.5 1448.1 1447.9 1447.7 1447.6 1447.5
Stump Lake.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1448.8 1448.5 1448.1 1447.9 1447.7 1447.6 1447.5

  The non-exceedance value for a listed percentage is the value
    where that percentage of all model cases run were below that
      lake level for the specified valid period of the outlook.

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
    in late February and, two weeks later, in early March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
  graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
  are available from...the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

When available (see schedule above) the AHPS graphics for monthly
  outlooks should be available by mid-morning or early afternoon.
  Monthly probabilistic outlooks are issued on the Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month. Special
  spring flood and water management outlooks are issued on Thursday
  afternoons in late February and then again, two weeks later in
early
  March to coincide with the spring snow melt. Due to the lake
  freeze-up will not be issued from October through December.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
NNNN





  [top]

000
FGUS73 KBIS 241955
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probability based Flood and Water Resources Outlook is
for the Souris (Mouse) River basin of North Dakota and covers the
period of late May through late August.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Souris River basin of North Dakota.
The Souris River basin remains well below normal with respect to
risk of widespread flooding along the Souris River and its major
tributaries. However, given the region is now in the summer weather
season, strong thunderstorms producing localized flooding is biggest
concern when it comes to flood risks.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and sometetimes heavy rains, rivers continue
to be near normal for this time of year. However, recent rains have
kept or raised soil moisture levels seasonally normal, but not
excessively wet range. There is nothing in the current hydrologic
conditions that warrants increased awareness when it comes to
enhanced flood risk.

...Weather Outlook...
June has been fairly normal thus far, widespread thunderstorms and rain
showers have highlighted the weather pattern with some areas receiving
excess rainfall, while nearby neighbors receiving considerably less.
Looking forward, the 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day outlooks consistently call
for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. However,
the longer one-month and three-month outlooks retain the warmer than
normal signal whle reflecting an equal chance of above normal,
near normal, and below normal precipitation patterns.

...Important Note On Substantive Changes... Beginning January 1st of
2016, the National Weather Service converted all river gage data in
the Souris River basin of North Dakota to feet above Mean Sea Level
using the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. This included raises
in flood stage definitions by up to one foot at individual locations
in order to continue working with whole numbers. More information on
this can be found on our website, or by contacting Service Hydrologist
Allen Schlag at 701-250-4495.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching of the model
predicting a rise to flood category based on historical or normal
conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                   VALID PERIOD: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Des Lacs River
  Foxholm         1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Souris River
  Sherwood        1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Foxholm         1573.0 1576.0 1578.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Minot 4NW       1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Minot Brwy Brdg 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Logan           1536.0 1538.0 1540.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Sawyer          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Velva           1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wintering River
  Karlsruhe       1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Souris River
  Towner          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0     6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Bantry          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Willow Creek
  Willow City     1442.0 1446.0 1448.0    10    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Souris River
  Westhope        1414.0 1418.0 1420.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Des/ Lacs River
Foxholm             1639.4 1639.4 1639.4 1639.5 1641.0 1642.3 1643.5
:Souris River
Sherwood            1607.5 1607.5 1607.5 1608.8 1611.8 1616.1 1621.7
Foxholm             1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1569.3 1571.0 1573.1
Minot 4NW           1551.0 1551.0 1551.0 1551.0 1552.9 1554.4 1556.0
Minot Brwy Brdg     1538.1 1538.1 1538.1 1539.8 1542.6 1543.2 1543.8
Logan               1520.1 1520.1 1520.1 1521.3 1525.3 1527.2 1528.9
Sawyer              1507.4 1507.4 1507.4 1508.0 1510.9 1512.9 1514.7
Velva               1491.1 1491.1 1491.1 1492.1 1494.2 1497.1 1499.8
:Wintering River
Karlsruhe           1503.3 1503.3 1503.3 1503.5 1504.3 1504.8 1505.2
:Souris River
Towner              1445.2 1445.2 1445.2 1446.0 1449.7 1453.5 1454.6
Bantry              1431.4 1431.4 1431.4 1432.0 1435.5 1439.3 1440.3
:Willow Creek
Willow City         1436.7 1436.7 1436.7 1436.9 1437.7 1442.2 1443.8
:Souris River
Westhope            1410.5 1410.5 1410.5 1410.5 1411.5 1412.6 1414.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Des Lacs River
  Foxholm           1639.2 1639.1 1639.0 1639.0 1639.0 1639.0 1639.0
Souris River
  Sherwood          1606.9 1606.2 1605.7 1605.5 1605.5 1605.5 1605.5
  Foxholm           1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6
  Minot 4NW         1551.0 1550.9 1550.7 1550.6 1550.6 1550.6 1550.6
  Minot Brwy Brdg   1538.0 1537.4 1536.9 1536.4 1536.2 1536.2 1536.2
  Logan             1520.1 1520.0 1519.9 1519.8 1519.7 1519.7 1519.7
  Sawyer            1507.2 1506.7 1506.6 1506.6 1506.5 1506.5 1506.5
  Velva             1490.7 1490.3 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2
Wintering River
  Karlsruhe         1502.9 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8
Souris River
  Towner            1444.9 1444.5 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4
  Bantry            1431.1 1430.9 1430.6 1430.5 1430.5 1430.5 1430.5
Willow Creek
  Willow City       1436.2 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0
Souris River
  Westhope          1409.7 1409.4 1409.2 1409.2 1409.2 1409.2 1409.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using historical conditions from 30 or more years of
climatological data...and current conditions of the river...soil
moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
ajs




000
FGUS73 KBIS 241953
ESFBIS
FGUS63 KMSR 211423
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
922 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8          1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8          1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8          1573.0 1576.0 1578.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MINN8          1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8          1536.0 1538.0 1540.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SWRN8          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8          1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0     6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BANN8          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8          1442.0 1446.0 1448.0    10    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8          1414.0 1418.0 1420.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0626 Z DH12 /DC1606211422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.5/ 1641.0/ 1642.3/ 1643.5
:Souris River
SHWN8    1607.5/ 1607.5/ 1607.5/ 1608.8/ 1611.8/ 1616.1/ 1621.7
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1569.3/ 1571.0/ 1573.1
MINN8    1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1552.9/ 1554.4/ 1556.0
MION8    1538.1/ 1538.1/ 1538.1/ 1539.8/ 1542.6/ 1543.2/ 1543.8
LGNN8    1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1521.3/ 1525.3/ 1527.2/ 1528.9
SWRN8    1507.4/ 1507.4/ 1507.4/ 1508.0/ 1510.9/ 1512.9/ 1514.7
VLVN8    1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1492.1/ 1494.2/ 1497.1/ 1499.8
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1503.3/ 1503.3/ 1503.3/ 1503.5/ 1504.3/ 1504.8/ 1505.2
:Souris River
TOWN8    1445.2/ 1445.2/ 1445.2/ 1446.0/ 1449.7/ 1453.5/ 1454.6
BANN8    1431.4/ 1431.4/ 1431.4/ 1432.0/ 1435.5/ 1439.3/ 1440.3
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.7/ 1436.7/ 1436.7/ 1436.9/ 1437.7/ 1442.2/ 1443.8
:Souris River
WSTN8    1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1411.5/ 1412.6/ 1414.6
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0626 Z DH12 /DC1606211422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.2/ 1639.1/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0
:Souris River
SHWN8    1606.9/ 1606.2/ 1605.7/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6
MINN8    1551.0/ 1550.9/ 1550.7/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6
MION8    1538.0/ 1537.4/ 1536.9/ 1536.4/ 1536.2/ 1536.2/ 1536.2
LGNN8    1520.1/ 1520.0/ 1519.9/ 1519.8/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7
SWRN8    1507.2/ 1506.7/ 1506.6/ 1506.6/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5
VLVN8    1490.7/ 1490.3/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1502.9/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8
:Souris River
TOWN8    1444.9/ 1444.5/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4
BANN8    1431.1/ 1430.9/ 1430.6/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.2/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0
:Souris River
WSTN8    1409.7/ 1409.4/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$
ajs




000
FGUS73 KBIS 241953
ESFBIS
FGUS63 KMSR 211423
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
922 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8          1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8          1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8          1573.0 1576.0 1578.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MINN8          1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8          1536.0 1538.0 1540.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SWRN8          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8          1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0     6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BANN8          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8          1442.0 1446.0 1448.0    10    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8          1414.0 1418.0 1420.0     6   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0626 Z DH12 /DC1606211422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.4/ 1639.5/ 1641.0/ 1642.3/ 1643.5
:Souris River
SHWN8    1607.5/ 1607.5/ 1607.5/ 1608.8/ 1611.8/ 1616.1/ 1621.7
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1569.3/ 1571.0/ 1573.1
MINN8    1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1551.0/ 1552.9/ 1554.4/ 1556.0
MION8    1538.1/ 1538.1/ 1538.1/ 1539.8/ 1542.6/ 1543.2/ 1543.8
LGNN8    1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1520.1/ 1521.3/ 1525.3/ 1527.2/ 1528.9
SWRN8    1507.4/ 1507.4/ 1507.4/ 1508.0/ 1510.9/ 1512.9/ 1514.7
VLVN8    1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1491.1/ 1492.1/ 1494.2/ 1497.1/ 1499.8
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1503.3/ 1503.3/ 1503.3/ 1503.5/ 1504.3/ 1504.8/ 1505.2
:Souris River
TOWN8    1445.2/ 1445.2/ 1445.2/ 1446.0/ 1449.7/ 1453.5/ 1454.6
BANN8    1431.4/ 1431.4/ 1431.4/ 1432.0/ 1435.5/ 1439.3/ 1440.3
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.7/ 1436.7/ 1436.7/ 1436.9/ 1437.7/ 1442.2/ 1443.8
:Souris River
WSTN8    1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1410.5/ 1411.5/ 1412.6/ 1414.6
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0626 Z DH12 /DC1606211422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 06/26/2016 - 09/24/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.2/ 1639.1/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1639.0
:Souris River
SHWN8    1606.9/ 1606.2/ 1605.7/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6
MINN8    1551.0/ 1550.9/ 1550.7/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6
MION8    1538.0/ 1537.4/ 1536.9/ 1536.4/ 1536.2/ 1536.2/ 1536.2
LGNN8    1520.1/ 1520.0/ 1519.9/ 1519.8/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7
SWRN8    1507.2/ 1506.7/ 1506.6/ 1506.6/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5
VLVN8    1490.7/ 1490.3/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1502.9/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8
:Souris River
TOWN8    1444.9/ 1444.5/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4
BANN8    1431.1/ 1430.9/ 1430.6/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.2/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0
:Souris River
WSTN8    1409.7/ 1409.4/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$
ajs




000
FGUS73 KBIS 241834
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
133 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late June through late September.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins
of North Dakota. Due to recent widespread and heavy rainfall, what
had been seasonally below normal probabilities for flooding are
now much closer to normal as recent rains now occupy a good
portion of the soil column`s capacity to hold water. However, given
that the region is now in summer, the overall risk of widespread
flooding is fairly low. The much bigger concern is for localized
flash flooding that tends to show up during strong thunderstorms
and generally affects the smaller streams and urban areas.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and sometetimes heavy rains, rivers continue
to be near normal for this time of year. However, recent rains have
kept or raised soil moisture levels seasonally normal, but not
excessively wet range. There is nothing in the current hydrologic
conditions that warrants increased awareness when it comes to
enhanced flood risk.

...Weather Outlook...
June has been fairly normal thus far, widespread thunderstorms and rain
showers have highlighted the weather pattern with some areas receiving
excess rainfall, while nearby neighbors receiving considerably less.
Looking forward, the 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day outlooks consistently call
for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. However,
the longer one-month and three-month outlooks retain the warmer than
normal signal whle reflecting an equal chance of above normal,
near normal, and below normal precipitation patterns.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  12   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :   8   19    7    9    6    7
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  19   22   10   20    5    6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :   5   10   <5    8   <5   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  15   23   12   21    6   18

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    5.1    6.0    6.8
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.8    6.0    7.4
Lamoure               7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.6    8.9   14.4
:Cannonball River
Regent                5.2    5.2    5.2    6.0    7.3    8.6    8.9
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.3    1.3    2.3    3.4    5.9    7.3    8.0
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.4    3.0    4.5    7.4    8.9   10.1   11.4
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.5    4.5    5.1    9.7   10.9   17.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.9    4.9    4.9    5.4    7.6   12.2   14.1
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.3    1.9    2.9    4.1
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.4    1.4    1.4    1.6    2.8    4.0    5.7
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -0.2    0.6    2.3    4.7
:Knife River
Manning               6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    7.6    9.1    9.7
:Spring Creek
Zap                   5.1    5.1    5.1    5.2    5.9   11.1   13.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.2    1.2    1.2    2.3    3.7   11.3   13.5
:Heart River
Mandan                0.1    0.1    0.1    1.1    3.5    6.4   18.1
:Apple Creek
Menoken               3.5    3.5    3.5    5.1    6.6   16.2   17.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.6    4.6    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Lamoure               7.4    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.8    4.8    4.8    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.1    1.1    1.0    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.3
:Cannonball River
Breien                1.9    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1
:Knife River
Manning               6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 0.7    0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.1   -0.3   -0.5   -0.6   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7
:Apple Creek
Menoken               3.4    3.4    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.govis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS





000
FGUS73 KBIS 241834
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
133 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late June through late September.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins
of North Dakota. Due to recent widespread and heavy rainfall, what
had been seasonally below normal probabilities for flooding are
now much closer to normal as recent rains now occupy a good
portion of the soil column`s capacity to hold water. However, given
that the region is now in summer, the overall risk of widespread
flooding is fairly low. The much bigger concern is for localized
flash flooding that tends to show up during strong thunderstorms
and generally affects the smaller streams and urban areas.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and sometetimes heavy rains, rivers continue
to be near normal for this time of year. However, recent rains have
kept or raised soil moisture levels seasonally normal, but not
excessively wet range. There is nothing in the current hydrologic
conditions that warrants increased awareness when it comes to
enhanced flood risk.

...Weather Outlook...
June has been fairly normal thus far, widespread thunderstorms and rain
showers have highlighted the weather pattern with some areas receiving
excess rainfall, while nearby neighbors receiving considerably less.
Looking forward, the 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day outlooks consistently call
for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. However,
the longer one-month and three-month outlooks retain the warmer than
normal signal whle reflecting an equal chance of above normal,
near normal, and below normal precipitation patterns.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  12   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :   8   19    7    9    6    7
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  19   22   10   20    5    6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :   5   10   <5    8   <5   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  15   23   12   21    6   18

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    5.1    6.0    6.8
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.8    6.0    7.4
Lamoure               7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.6    8.9   14.4
:Cannonball River
Regent                5.2    5.2    5.2    6.0    7.3    8.6    8.9
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.3    1.3    2.3    3.4    5.9    7.3    8.0
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.4    3.0    4.5    7.4    8.9   10.1   11.4
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.5    4.5    5.1    9.7   10.9   17.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.9    4.9    4.9    5.4    7.6   12.2   14.1
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.3    1.9    2.9    4.1
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.4    1.4    1.4    1.6    2.8    4.0    5.7
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -0.2    0.6    2.3    4.7
:Knife River
Manning               6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    7.6    9.1    9.7
:Spring Creek
Zap                   5.1    5.1    5.1    5.2    5.9   11.1   13.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.2    1.2    1.2    2.3    3.7   11.3   13.5
:Heart River
Mandan                0.1    0.1    0.1    1.1    3.5    6.4   18.1
:Apple Creek
Menoken               3.5    3.5    3.5    5.1    6.6   16.2   17.7

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 06/25/2016  - 09/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.6    4.6    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Lamoure               7.4    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1
:Cannonball River
Regent                4.8    4.8    4.8    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.1    1.1    1.0    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.3
:Cannonball River
Breien                1.9    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Little Missouri River
Medora                1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
Watford City         -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1   -1.1
:Knife River
Manning               6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
:Spring Creek
Zap                   4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
:Knife River
Hazen                 0.7    0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.1   -0.3   -0.5   -0.6   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7
:Apple Creek
Menoken               3.4    3.4    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.govis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS





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