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000
SRUS43 KFGF 301321
RVAFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-
125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-
073-077-081-091-095-097-099-310121-

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
821 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

                ...MORNING RIVER STAGE SUMMARY...

                   FLOOD   RIVER     CHANGE      FLOW  OBSERVATION
STATION            STAGE   STAGE   6 HR  24 HR   CFS*      TIME
...RED RIVER
WAHPETON             10     8.40   0.02   0.09   2428    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  942.97
HICKSON              28    14.24   0.10   0.41   2036    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  876.38
FARGO                18    16.10   0.05   0.20   2032    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  861.80         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT   70.6
HALSTAD              26     9.26   0.07   0.31   3297    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  826.65         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT   69.9
EAST GRAND FORKS     28    17.92   0.08   0.06   5209    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  779.00         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT   69.4
OSLO                 28    12.08   0.00  -0.05   5550    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  772.65
DRAYTON              32    14.55   0.01   0.06   6299    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  755.00
PEMBINA              42    17.42   0.04   0.14   6829    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  739.45
EMERSON MB           NA   755.39   0.02   0.13     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM    0.00
  * FLOW ESTIMATED FROM MOST RECENT STAGE-DISCHARGE RATING.

...WILD RICE RIVER
ABERCROMBIE          10     1.06   0.01  -0.01     76    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  907.94

...SHEYENNE RIVER
COOPERSTOWN          NA    11.90   0.00  -0.03    774    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1271.76         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT   66.7
VALLEY CITY          13     7.05   0.00  -0.05    951    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1199.27
WARWICK              NA     3.31   0.00  -0.01    282    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1376.34         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT     M
LISBON               11     7.04  -0.06  -0.06   1171    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1066.46
KINDRED              16     7.70   0.21   0.65   1054    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  925.55
WEST FARGO DIVERSION 16     9.84   0.04  -0.13    290    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  876.78
DVRSN NR HORACE      NA    19.60   0.14   0.20   1114    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  890.00         WATER TEMP IN FAHRENHEIT   68.9
HARWOOD             884   873.31  -0.06  -0.32     NA    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  000.00

...BALDHILL CREEK
DAZEY 5NE            NA     6.53  -0.01  -0.03     26    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1330.00

...MAPLE RIVER
ENDERLIN              9     2.74  -0.03  -0.08     74    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1056.72
MAPLETON            905   895.64  -0.03  -0.17    115    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM    0.00

...BUFFALO RIVER
HAWLEY                7     3.61   0.00   0.04     45    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1111.91
DILWORTH             12     4.53   0.00  -0.04    101    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  878.31

...SOUTH BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER
SABIN                12     6.01  -0.02  -0.14     47    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  902.39

...GOOSE RIVER
HILLSBORO            10     2.86  -0.01   0.08    436    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  879.52

...FOREST RIVER
MINTO                 6     1.82   0.00  -0.06     95    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  806.95

...MIDDLE RIVER
ARGYLE 4E            NA     3.49  -0.02  -0.04      7    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  828.53

...CLEARWATER RIVER
PLUMMER              NA     2.81  -0.01   0.01     65    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1098.57
RED LAKE FALLS       NA     2.58   0.01   0.01    207    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  948.94

...RED LAKE RIVER
CROOKSTON            15     6.48  -0.06  -0.05   1356    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  832.72
HIGHLANDING          12     6.13   0.02   0.07    498    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1141.57
THIEF RIVER DAM      NA  1100.91   0.19  -0.14   1186    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM    0.00

...TAMARAC RIVER
WASKISH              NA    75.19  -0.01  -0.09     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1100.00

...THIEF RIVER
THIEF RIVER FALLS    NA     6.31  -0.08  -0.27    381    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1112.33

...SNAKE RIVER
WARREN ABOVE DVRSN   NA    61.32   0.01  -0.06     26    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  800.00
ALVARADO            106    96.83   0.00  -0.06     36    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  700.00

...LOST RIVER
OKLEE                NA     3.06  -0.01  -0.01      5    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1126.94

...WILD RICE RIVER
ADA                  NA     6.68  -0.01  -0.03     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  890.00
TWIN VALLEY          10     2.27   0.01   0.01     54    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1008.16
HENDRUM              20     4.56   0.00  -0.02     77    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  836.75

...OTTERTAIL RIVER
BRECKENRIDGE         NA    12.15   0.02   0.03     NA    SAT 2 PM
    DATUM  942.99

...RABBIT RIVER
CAMPBELL             NA     4.72  -0.03  -0.08     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  959.70

...PARK RIVER
GRAFTON              12     7.30  -0.01  -0.02      8    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  811.00

...PEMBINA RIVER
NECHE                18     4.87  -0.03  -0.13    365    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM  809.69
WALHALLA             11     2.92  -0.01  -0.04    248    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  934.00

...TWO RIVERS RIVER
HALLOCK             802   793.94   0.00  -0.07     NA    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM    0.00
LAKE BRONSON         NA     3.76   0.00   0.09     19    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM  928.53

...ROSEAU RIVER
CARIBOU              NA     2.53   0.00   0.02    136    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1002.31
ROSS                 NA     2.91  -0.02   0.01    103    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1018.61
ROSEAU               16     5.91   0.00  -0.02     NA    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1026.40
MALUNG               NA     5.15  -0.01  -0.05     80    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1029.67

...DEVILS LAKE BASIN
CREEL BAY            NA  1452.73   0.01  -0.02     NA    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM    0.00
STARKWEATHER COULEE  NA     5.00   0.03  -0.09     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1448.00
EDMORE COLUEE        NA    80.54  -0.02  -0.07     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM   80.54
DRY LAKE NEAR PENN   NA    52.75  -0.03  -0.07     NA    SAT 8 AM
    DATUM 1400.00
COULEE NEAR CANDO    NA     7.81  -0.04  -0.19    773    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM 1445.00
EAST STUMP LAKE      NA  1452.83  -0.01  -0.02     NA    SAT 7 AM
    DATUM    0.00

  M - INDICATES MISSING DATA
 NA - INDICATES FLOOD STAGE OR CURRENT FLOW ARE NOT APPLICABLE
 DATUM + GAUGE READING = MEAN SEA LEVEL ELEVATION OF WATER SURFACE.

THESE DATA ARE FROM AUTOMATED GAUGES AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED
PROVISIONAL.

*** FOR THE LATEST LAKE AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS***
                 PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT...
            WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FGF


$$



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000
FGUS73 KBIS 291754
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS (MOUSE) RIVER
BASIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH LATE NOVEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
INDEED...THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY SMALL RISK AT THIS POINT OF THE
YEAR. HOWEVER...AS RECENT EVENTS ALONG THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVER
OVER IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN HAVE DEMONSTRATED...AND THE RECENT
BOOST IN WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOURIS...THE RISK IS CERTAINLY NOT
ZERO.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY FORECAST POINT
ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALL OTHERS THOUGH ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
OVER THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE REGION IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUT FARTHER IN TIME TO THE ONE MONTH AND
THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...THE AREA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...


                           SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
          VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1, 2014  TO NOVEMBER 30, 2014

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM             16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD            18.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM   10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT 4NW           14.0   17.0   22.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT             1549.0 1551.0 1555.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LOGAN               34.0   36.0   38.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SAWYER              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  VELVA             1505.0 1510.0 1515.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              52.0   54.0   56.0 :  15  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  BANTRY              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  10  <5    6  <5   <5  <5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         10.0   14.0   16.0 :  12  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE            10.0   14.0   16.0 :   9  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  (HISTORICAL RISK FOR THIS SEASON)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         RISE ABOVE 5.2 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.8 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                     FROM  9/1/2014 TO 11/30/2014
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    6.6    7.3    9.8
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    7.2    8.8
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    9.0    9.9
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.6    7.3    9.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.3 1542.0 1543.1
  LOGAN               23.9   23.9   23.9   23.9   24.4   27.5   30.3
  SAWYER               8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    9.4   13.7   17.1
  VELVA             1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1493.8 1498.9 1502.9
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.0    3.9    6.3
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              50.4   50.4   50.4   50.4   50.7   53.3   54.5
  BANTRY               8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.5   11.5   12.5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5   11.7   13.1
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6   10.0   12.5



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
##              VALID OCTOBER 1, 2012 - DECEMBER 30, 2012

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW THE LISTED RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER
FORECAST
POINT LOCATIONS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         REMAIN ABOVE 4.6 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL FALL BELOW 2.3 FEET.

         PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES

TABLE 3

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    3.8    2.3
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    6.9    4.8
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.1 1541.1 1541.1
  LOGAN               23.8   23.8   23.7   23.7   23.7   23.6   23.6
  SAWYER               8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.5
  VELVA             1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.7 1491.7 1491.7
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.0    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              48.0   48.0   47.8   47.7   47.6   47.6   47.6
  BANTRY               5.8    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          5.4    5.0    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             7.9    7.7    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1948 THROUGH 2011.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING
ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
MAP...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS










000
FGUS73 KBIS 291754
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS (MOUSE) RIVER
BASIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH LATE NOVEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
INDEED...THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY SMALL RISK AT THIS POINT OF THE
YEAR. HOWEVER...AS RECENT EVENTS ALONG THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVER
OVER IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN HAVE DEMONSTRATED...AND THE RECENT
BOOST IN WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOURIS...THE RISK IS CERTAINLY NOT
ZERO.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY FORECAST POINT
ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALL OTHERS THOUGH ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
OVER THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE REGION IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUT FARTHER IN TIME TO THE ONE MONTH AND
THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...THE AREA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...


                           SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
          VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1, 2014  TO NOVEMBER 30, 2014

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM             16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD            18.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM   10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT 4NW           14.0   17.0   22.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT             1549.0 1551.0 1555.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LOGAN               34.0   36.0   38.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SAWYER              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  VELVA             1505.0 1510.0 1515.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              52.0   54.0   56.0 :  15  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  BANTRY              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  10  <5    6  <5   <5  <5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         10.0   14.0   16.0 :  12  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE            10.0   14.0   16.0 :   9  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  (HISTORICAL RISK FOR THIS SEASON)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         RISE ABOVE 5.2 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.8 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                     FROM  9/1/2014 TO 11/30/2014
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    6.6    7.3    9.8
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    7.2    8.8
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    9.0    9.9
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.6    7.3    9.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.3 1542.0 1543.1
  LOGAN               23.9   23.9   23.9   23.9   24.4   27.5   30.3
  SAWYER               8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    9.4   13.7   17.1
  VELVA             1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1493.8 1498.9 1502.9
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.0    3.9    6.3
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              50.4   50.4   50.4   50.4   50.7   53.3   54.5
  BANTRY               8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.5   11.5   12.5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5   11.7   13.1
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6   10.0   12.5



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
##              VALID OCTOBER 1, 2012 - DECEMBER 30, 2012

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW THE LISTED RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER
FORECAST
POINT LOCATIONS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         REMAIN ABOVE 4.6 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL FALL BELOW 2.3 FEET.

         PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES

TABLE 3

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    3.8    2.3
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    6.9    4.8
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.1 1541.1 1541.1
  LOGAN               23.8   23.8   23.7   23.7   23.7   23.6   23.6
  SAWYER               8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.5
  VELVA             1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.7 1491.7 1491.7
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.0    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              48.0   48.0   47.8   47.7   47.6   47.6   47.6
  BANTRY               5.8    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          5.4    5.0    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             7.9    7.7    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1948 THROUGH 2011.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING
ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
MAP...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS










000
FGUS73 KBIS 291754
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS (MOUSE) RIVER
BASIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH LATE NOVEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
INDEED...THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY SMALL RISK AT THIS POINT OF THE
YEAR. HOWEVER...AS RECENT EVENTS ALONG THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVER
OVER IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN HAVE DEMONSTRATED...AND THE RECENT
BOOST IN WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOURIS...THE RISK IS CERTAINLY NOT
ZERO.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY FORECAST POINT
ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALL OTHERS THOUGH ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
OVER THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE REGION IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUT FARTHER IN TIME TO THE ONE MONTH AND
THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...THE AREA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...


                           SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
          VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1, 2014  TO NOVEMBER 30, 2014

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM             16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD            18.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM   10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT 4NW           14.0   17.0   22.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT             1549.0 1551.0 1555.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LOGAN               34.0   36.0   38.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SAWYER              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  VELVA             1505.0 1510.0 1515.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              52.0   54.0   56.0 :  15  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  BANTRY              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  10  <5    6  <5   <5  <5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         10.0   14.0   16.0 :  12  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE            10.0   14.0   16.0 :   9  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  (HISTORICAL RISK FOR THIS SEASON)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         RISE ABOVE 5.2 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.8 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                     FROM  9/1/2014 TO 11/30/2014
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    6.6    7.3    9.8
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    7.2    8.8
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    9.0    9.9
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.6    7.3    9.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.3 1542.0 1543.1
  LOGAN               23.9   23.9   23.9   23.9   24.4   27.5   30.3
  SAWYER               8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    9.4   13.7   17.1
  VELVA             1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1493.8 1498.9 1502.9
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.0    3.9    6.3
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              50.4   50.4   50.4   50.4   50.7   53.3   54.5
  BANTRY               8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.5   11.5   12.5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5   11.7   13.1
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6   10.0   12.5



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
##              VALID OCTOBER 1, 2012 - DECEMBER 30, 2012

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW THE LISTED RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER
FORECAST
POINT LOCATIONS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         REMAIN ABOVE 4.6 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL FALL BELOW 2.3 FEET.

         PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES

TABLE 3

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    3.8    2.3
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    6.9    4.8
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.1 1541.1 1541.1
  LOGAN               23.8   23.8   23.7   23.7   23.7   23.6   23.6
  SAWYER               8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.5
  VELVA             1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.7 1491.7 1491.7
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.0    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              48.0   48.0   47.8   47.7   47.6   47.6   47.6
  BANTRY               5.8    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          5.4    5.0    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             7.9    7.7    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1948 THROUGH 2011.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING
ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
MAP...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS










000
FGUS73 KBIS 291754
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS (MOUSE) RIVER
BASIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF EARLY SEPTEMBER THROUGH LATE NOVEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
INDEED...THIS IS GENERALLY A VERY SMALL RISK AT THIS POINT OF THE
YEAR. HOWEVER...AS RECENT EVENTS ALONG THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVER
OVER IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN HAVE DEMONSTRATED...AND THE RECENT
BOOST IN WATER LEVELS ALONG THE SOURIS...THE RISK IS CERTAINLY NOT
ZERO.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR WESTHOPE IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY FORECAST POINT
ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ALL OTHERS THOUGH ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
OVER THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE REGION IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUT FARTHER IN TIME TO THE ONE MONTH AND
THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...THE AREA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...


                           SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
          VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1, 2014  TO NOVEMBER 30, 2014

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM             16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD            18.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM   10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT 4NW           14.0   17.0   22.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINOT             1549.0 1551.0 1555.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  LOGAN               34.0   36.0   38.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  SAWYER              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  VELVA             1505.0 1510.0 1515.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            7.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              52.0   54.0   56.0 :  15  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  BANTRY              11.0   12.0   14.0 :  10  <5    6  <5   <5  <5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         10.0   14.0   16.0 :  12  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE            10.0   14.0   16.0 :   9  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  (HISTORICAL RISK FOR THIS SEASON)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         RISE ABOVE 5.2 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 8.8 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                     FROM  9/1/2014 TO 11/30/2014
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    6.6    7.3    9.8
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    7.2    8.8
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    7.4    9.0    9.9
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.6    7.3    9.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.3 1542.0 1543.1
  LOGAN               23.9   23.9   23.9   23.9   24.4   27.5   30.3
  SAWYER               8.9    8.9    8.9    8.9    9.4   13.7   17.1
  VELVA             1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1491.9 1493.8 1498.9 1502.9
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.0    3.9    6.3
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              50.4   50.4   50.4   50.4   50.7   53.3   54.5
  BANTRY               8.4    8.4    8.4    8.4    8.5   11.5   12.5
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5    9.5   11.7   13.1
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6   10.0   12.5



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
##              VALID OCTOBER 1, 2012 - DECEMBER 30, 2012

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW THE LISTED RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER
FORECAST
POINT LOCATIONS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         REMAIN ABOVE 4.6 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL FALL BELOW 2.3 FEET.

         PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES

TABLE 3

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    3.8    2.3
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    6.9    4.8
  MINOT 4NW            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
  MINOT             1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.2 1541.1 1541.1 1541.1
  LOGAN               23.8   23.8   23.7   23.7   23.7   23.6   23.6
  SAWYER               8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.5
  VELVA             1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.8 1491.7 1491.7 1491.7
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.0    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              48.0   48.0   47.8   47.7   47.6   47.6   47.6
  BANTRY               5.8    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          5.4    5.0    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             7.9    7.7    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1948 THROUGH 2011.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING
ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
MAP...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS










000
FGUS73 KBIS 291738
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER
BASINS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD
OF OCTOBER THROUGH LATE DECEMBER.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS THREE SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE...AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY. THE FINAL SECTION GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES
OF RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE LISTED RIVER STAGES.


...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
THE REGION CONTINUES TO REFLECT NEAR NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR
FLOODING AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS. INDEED...THIS IS GENERALLY A
VERY SMALL RISK AT THIS POINT OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...AS RECENT
EVENTS ALONG THE KNIFE AND HEART RIVER HAVE DEMONSTRATED...THE
RISK IS NOT ZERO.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
NEARLY ALL RIVERS ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS ARE
AT NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SOILS...WHILE NOT NECESSARILY SATURATED...ARE ALSO HOLDING AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF SOIL MOISTURE. THIS HAS KEPT THE REGION GENERALLY
GREENER THAN NORMAL AND IS STARTING TO PRODUCE SOME PROBLEMS WITH
GETTING ALREADY MATURED CROPS OFF THE FIELD IN A TIMELY MANNER
WITHOUT SOME LOSS IN QUALITY.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
OVER THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS...THE REGION IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LOOKING OUT FARTHER IN TIME TO THE ONE MONTH AND
THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...THE AREA HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.



...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.



                    JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
                   FROM  8/30/2014 TO 11/28/2014 Z

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK.....
  WILLISTON           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER.....
  MARMARTH            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MEDORA              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WATFORD CITY        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
KNIFE RIVER.....
  MANNING             15.0   17.0   20.0 :   5   5   <5  <5   <5  <5
SPRING CREEK.....
  ZAP                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  11   7    9   5    7  <5
KNIFE RIVER.....
  HAZEN               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  10   6    8  <5    8  <5
HEART RIVER.....
  MANDAN              17.0   23.0   28.0 :   6  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
APPLE CREEK.....
  MENOKEN             15.0   16.0   17.0 :   9  17    7   6   <5  <5
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  REGENT              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
CEDAR CREEK.....
  RALEIGH             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  BREIEN              10.0   20.0   23.0 :   9   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
BEAVER CREEK.....
  LINTON               9.0   11.0   13.0 :   6  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
JAMES RIVER.....
  GRACE CITY          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
PIPESTEM CREEK.....
  PINGREE             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5
JAMES RIVER.....
  LAMOURE             14.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  <5   <5  <5   <5  <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  ( "       "  NORMAL  CONDITIONS)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM


...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...


THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE LITTLE MUDDY CREEK AT WILLISTON
         TO RISE ABOVE 4.4 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.6 FEET.


                    JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER BASINS
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES

                   FROM 8/30/2014 TO 11/28/2014 Z
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
LITTLE MUDDY CREEK.....
  WILLISTON            4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    5.7    7.6    8.5
LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER.....
  MARMARTH             2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    6.0   11.9   12.4
  MEDORA               4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    6.8   12.2   12.6
  WATFORD CITY         2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    5.0    8.4    9.3
KNIFE RIVER.....
  MANNING              6.6    6.6    6.6    6.6    8.7   11.1   15.2
SPRING CREEK.....
  ZAP                  5.2    5.2    5.2    5.3    8.6   15.8   23.0
KNIFE RIVER.....
  HAZEN                3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0   12.8   20.0   25.6
HEART RIVER.....
  MANDAN               6.8    6.8    6.8    6.8    6.8   11.5   18.0
APPLE CREEK.....
  MENOKEN              5.7    5.7    5.7    6.2   10.1   14.4   16.5
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  REGENT               5.4    5.4    5.4    6.2    7.8   10.0   11.0
CEDAR CREEK.....
  RALEIGH              1.6    1.6    1.6    2.2    4.4    5.6    6.3
CANNONBALL RIVER.....
  BREIEN               3.9    3.9    3.9    4.9    8.1    9.9   11.1
BEAVER CREEK.....
  LINTON               5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    6.6    7.6    9.7
JAMES RIVER.....
  GRACE CITY           4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    5.4    5.9
PIPESTEM CREEK.....
  PINGREE              4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.8    5.1    5.8
JAMES RIVER.....
  LAMOURE              7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    8.2    9.8


...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING 25 OR MORE YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1978 THROUGH 2002.

. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON
THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

    THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS"ON THE TAB ABOVE THE MAP
  ...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.


$$
AJS










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