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000
SRUS43 KFGF 300148
RVAFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-119-
       125-135-159-167-
NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-
       095-097-099-301348-

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
848 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

                  ...Evening River Stage Summary...

                    FLOOD    RIVER     CHANGE      FLOW  OBSERVATION
STATION             STAGE    STAGE   6 HR  24 HR   CFS*     TIME
...Red River
Wahpeton             11.0     6.42   0.01  -0.01   1265    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  942.97
Hickson              30.0    12.45  -0.05  -0.12   1202    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  876.38
Fargo                18.0    15.76  -0.02  -0.14   1630    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  861.80         water temperature in Fahrenheit...51.0
Halstad              26.0     9.40  -0.04   0.18   3391    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  826.65         water temperature in Fahrenheit...53.4
East Grand Forks     28.0    18.22   0.09   0.47   5898    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  779.00         water temperature in Fahrenheit...52.2
Oslo                 26.0    11.48   0.33   1.41   5033    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  772.65
Drayton              32.0    13.91   0.12   0.39   4084    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  755.00
Pembina              39.0    17.53   0.04   0.00   6059    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  739.45
Emerson MB             NA   755.55   0.03  -0.04   6355    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

    * Flow estimated from most recent stage-discharge rating.

...Wild Rice River
Abercrombie          10.0     1.61  -0.04  -0.12    159    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  907.94

...Sheyenne River
Cooperstown            NA    10.98   0.00   0.04    381    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1271.76         water temperature in Fahrenheit...53.1
Valley City          15.0     5.85  -0.01  -0.07    561    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1199.27
Warwick                NA     3.88   0.02   0.02    311    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1376.34         water temperature in Fahrenheit...  M
Lisbon               15.0     4.83   0.14   0.17    554    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1066.46
Kindred              16.0     5.02   0.14   0.29    509    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  925.55
West Fargo Diversion 18.0    10.22   0.01  -0.04    420    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  876.78
Dvrsn nr Horace        NA    16.24   0.06   0.09    491    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  890.00         water temperature in Fahrenheit...53.6
Harwood             884.0   870.95  -0.07  -0.29    629    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Baldhill Creek
Dazey 5NE              NA     6.80  -0.02  -0.06     40    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1330.00

...Maple River
Enderlin              9.5     2.48   0.01   0.03     35    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1056.72
Mapleton            905.0   895.52   0.03  -0.14     84    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Buffalo River
Hawley                8.0     4.18  -0.02  -0.10    124    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1111.91
Dilworth             13.0     8.23  -0.01   0.18    524    Fri 7 PM
    Datum:  878.31

...South Branch Buffalo River
Sabin                13.0     9.19  -0.21  -0.64    271    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  902.39

...Goose River
Hillsboro            10.0     2.24   0.00  -0.01    131    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  879.52

...Forest River
Minto                 6.0     1.99  -0.01  -0.03    148    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  806.95

...Middle River
Argyle                 NA     4.65  -0.04  -0.10     83    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  828.53

...Clearwater River
Plummer                NA     4.01   0.00   0.03    320    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1098.57
Red Lake Falls         NA     2.70  -0.01  -0.03    244    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  948.94

...Red Lake River
Crookston            15.0     7.32   0.00  -0.11   1910    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  832.72
Highlanding          12.0     4.30  -0.01  -0.13    470    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1141.57
Thief River Dam        NA  1099.04  -1.80  -1.37    411    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

...Tamarac River
Waskish                NA       M      M      M      NA
    Datum: 1100.00

...Marsh River
Shelly               14.0     4.19  -0.02  -0.05      8    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  841.14

...Sandhill River
Climax               20.0     4.91  -0.01   0.00     65    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  820.10

...Thief River
Thief River Falls      NA     7.37  -0.03  -0.49    758    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1112.33

...Snake River
Warren above Dvrsn   67.0    61.12  -0.15  -0.03     17    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  800.00
Alvarado            106.0    96.93  -0.02  -0.10     41    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  700.00

...Lost River
Oklee                  NA     5.25  -0.03  -0.15     92    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1126.94

...Wild Rice River
Ada                    NA     7.79   0.01  -0.08    383    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  890.00
Twin Valley          10.0     2.74  -0.04  -0.02    247    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1008.16
Hendrum              20.0     6.58  -0.03  -0.16    400    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  836.75

...Ottertail River
Breckenridge           NA    11.79   0.00   0.16    997    Sat 2 AM
    Datum:  942.99

...Rabbit River
Campbell               NA     5.51  -0.03  -0.10     85    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  959.70

...Park River
Grafton              12.0     7.87  -0.01  -0.06    126    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  811.00

...Pembina River
Neche                18.0     4.57  -0.01  -0.06    290    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  809.69
Walhalla             11.0     2.96   0.01   0.00    257    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  934.00

...Two Rivers River
Hallock             802.0   796.36  -0.03  -0.56    231    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00
Lake Bronson           NA     4.80   0.00   0.00    223    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:  928.53

...Roseau River
Caribou                NA     7.86   0.01   0.03   1691    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1002.31
Ross                   NA    11.06  -0.04  -0.17   1405    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1018.61
Roseau               16.0     7.12  -0.03  -0.16    366    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1026.40
Malung                 NA     6.98  -0.06  -0.20    424    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1029.67

...Devils Lake Basin
Creel Bay              NA  1450.25  -0.02  -0.01     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00
Starkweather Coulee    NA     2.35  -0.02   0.02     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1448.00
Edmore Coulee          NA    81.37  -0.10  -0.43     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1400.00
Dry Lake near Penn     NA    50.17   0.02   0.08     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1400.00
Coulee near Cando      NA     5.30  -0.02   0.02     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum: 1445.00
East Stump Lake        NA  1450.09  -0.01   0.01     NA    Fri 8 PM
    Datum:    0.00

  M - indicates missing data
 NA - indicates flood stage or current flow are not applicable
 Datum + Gauge reading = Mean Sea Level elevation of water surface.

These data are from automated gauges and should be considered
provisional.

*** for the latest lake and river conditions and forecasts***
                 please see our web page at...
            www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

$$
    weather.gov/fgf





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000
FGUS73 KBIS 292139
ESFBIS

NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
440 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probability based Flood and Water Resources Outlook is
for the Souris (Mouse) River basin of North Dakota and covers the
period of early May through late July.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Souris River basin of North Dakota.
The Souris River basin remains well below normal with respect to
flood risk with the exception of the Willow Creek sub basin. At this
point, strong thunderstorms producing localized flooding is the
primary source of the existing flood risks.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread rains, rivers and streams tend to be near
the low end of normal. A fairly dry soil profile coming into April
absorbed the vast majority of recent rains. At this point, soil
moisture levels are much closer to normal levels and any heavy rains
in the near term should be expected to produce greater runoff but
risks associated with widespread flooding are still considered below
normal.

...Weather Outlook...
The month of April has generally been wet across the Souri River
basin of North Dakota. In the near term 6-10 and 8 - 14 day outlooks,
the expectation is for above normal temperatures and a
below normal chance of precipitation. This transitions into an above
normal chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for
above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation pattern in
the one and three month outlooks.

...Important Note On Substantive Changes... Beginning January 1st of
2016, the National Weather Service converted all river gage data in
the Souris River basin of North Dakota to feet above Mean Sea Level
using the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. This included raises
in flood stage definitions by up to one foot at individual locations
in order to continue working with whole numbers. More information on
this can be found on our website, or by contacting Service Hydrologist
Allen Schlag at 701-250-4495.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching of the model
predicting a rise to flood category based on historical or normal
conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Des Lacs River
  Foxholm         1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Souris River
  Sherwood        1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Foxholm         1573.0 1576.0 1578.0    <5   24   <5    6   <5   <5
  Minot 4NW       1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Minot Brwy Brdg 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Logan           1536.0 1538.0 1540.0    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Sawyer          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
  Velva           1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wintering River
  Karlsruhe       1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Souris River
  Towner          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0    13   43   <5   17   <5   <5
  Bantry          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0    13   42    8   26   <5   <5
Willow Creek
  Willow City     1442.0 1446.0 1448.0     9   26    6    7   <5   <5
Souris River
  Westhope        1414.0 1418.0 1420.0     9   39    5   15   <5   10

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Des/ Lacs River
Foxholm             1639.5 1639.5 1639.5 1640.7 1641.9 1643.1 1643.9
:Souris River
Sherwood            1606.5 1606.5 1606.9 1608.3 1611.5 1615.3 1618.5
Foxholm             1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1570.4 1571.0 1572.8
Minot 4NW           1551.1 1551.1 1551.1 1551.6 1553.9 1555.0 1556.7
Minot Brwy Brdg     1538.4 1538.4 1538.7 1541.1 1543.0 1543.4 1544.4
Logan               1520.1 1520.1 1520.3 1522.8 1525.9 1528.0 1532.2
Sawyer              1507.5 1507.5 1507.6 1509.3 1511.4 1514.3 1518.5
Velva               1491.5 1491.5 1491.7 1492.9 1496.0 1499.8 1504.2
:Wintering River
Karlsruhe           1504.1 1504.1 1504.1 1504.2 1504.8 1506.7 1507.9
:Souris River
Towner              1445.8 1445.8 1445.8 1448.4 1452.0 1455.0 1455.7
Bantry              1431.8 1431.8 1431.8 1434.0 1437.4 1440.7 1441.3
:Willow Creek
Willow City         1438.8 1438.8 1438.8 1438.8 1438.8 1441.6 1446.6
:Souris River
Westhope            1410.7 1410.7 1410.7 1410.8 1411.7 1413.7 1418.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD: 05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Des Lacs River
  Foxholm           1639.4 1639.3 1639.2 1639.0 1639.0 1639.0 1639.0
Souris River
  Sherwood          1606.2 1606.1 1605.6 1605.5 1605.5 1605.5 1605.5
  Foxholm           1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6 1566.6
  Minot 4NW         1551.0 1551.0 1550.9 1550.7 1550.6 1550.6 1550.6
  Minot Brwy Brdg   1538.1 1537.9 1537.2 1536.6 1536.2 1536.2 1536.2
  Logan             1520.1 1520.1 1519.9 1519.8 1519.7 1519.7 1519.7
  Sawyer            1507.3 1507.1 1506.7 1506.6 1506.5 1506.5 1506.5
  Velva             1491.2 1490.8 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2 1490.2
Wintering River
  Karlsruhe         1503.5 1503.2 1502.9 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8 1502.8
Souris River
  Towner            1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4 1444.4
  Bantry            1430.6 1430.6 1430.6 1430.6 1430.6 1430.5 1430.5
Willow Creek
  Willow City       1436.7 1436.3 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0 1436.0
Souris River
  Westhope          1410.1 1410.1 1409.5 1409.2 1409.2 1409.2 1409.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using historical conditions from 30 or more years of
climatological data...and current conditions of the river...soil
moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of
temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
ajs




000
FGUS73 KBIS 292052
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late April through late July.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins
of North Dakota. Due to recent widespread and heavy rainfall, what
had been seasonally below normal probabilities for flooding are
now much closer to normal as recent rains now occupy a good
portion of the soil column`s capacity to hold water.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and heavy rains, rivers tend to remain near
the low end of normal. A fairly dry soil profile coming into April
absorbed the vast majority of that rain. At this point, soil moisture
levels are much closer to normal levels and any heavy rains in the near
term should be expected to produce greater runoff.

...Weather Outlook...
The month of April has generally been very wet across the James and
Missouri River basins of North Dakota. In the near term 6-10 and 8 - 14
day outlooks the expectation is for above normal temperatures and a
below normal chance of precipitation. This transitions into an above
normal chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for
above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation pattern in
the one and three month outlooks.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :   7    9    5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  34   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  32   24   11    9    8    7
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  25   27   14   24   <5    6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :   9    7   <5    5   <5    5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  13   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  27   20   14    8   12   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  15   17    8    6   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  35   50   23   35   12   21

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.9    4.9    4.9    5.0    5.4    6.2    8.6
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.5    5.9    7.1    9.7
Lamoure               7.8    7.8    7.8    7.8    8.0   11.7   15.9
:Cannonball River
Regent                7.0    7.0    7.0    8.1    9.5   11.8   14.0
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               3.4    3.4    4.0    5.1    6.2    7.6    8.0
:Cannonball River
Breien                7.1    7.1    7.5    9.1   11.2   13.1   13.6
:Beaver Creek
Linton                6.2    6.2    6.8   10.1   12.8   14.5   18.9
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.9    4.9    4.9    5.5   10.1   12.4   13.1
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    6.2   13.5   15.5
:Little Missouri River
Medora                7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    8.0   14.3   16.7
Watford City          3.3    3.3    3.3    3.5    5.4    9.6   12.1
:Knife River
Manning               8.1    8.1    8.4   10.8   13.3   16.3   16.7
:Spring Creek
Zap                   6.3    6.3    7.2   12.2   14.2   22.1   24.7
:Knife River
Hazen                 9.9    9.9    9.9   14.3   18.6   23.0   24.8
:Heart River
Mandan                3.9    3.9    3.9    5.0    7.1    8.0   19.0
:Apple Creek
Menoken              13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6   15.6   17.1   18.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.8    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Lamoure               7.7    7.6    7.6    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
:Cannonball River
Regent                5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.3    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
:Little Missouri River
Medora                2.2    2.0    2.0    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
Watford City         -0.1   -0.2   -0.2   -0.4   -0.4   -0.5   -0.5
:Knife River
Manning               6.4    6.4    6.4    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3
:Spring Creek
Zap                   5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.4    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.2   -0.2   -0.5   -0.7   -0.9   -1.2   -1.3
:Apple Creek
Menoken               5.2    5.1    5.0    4.6    4.3    4.2    4.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.govis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS




000
FGUS73 KBIS 292052
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-
053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-302200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


...Flood and Water Resources Outlook...

This probabilistic Spring Flood and Water Resources outlook is for
the Missouri and James River basins of North Dakota and covers
the period of late April through late July.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some text
on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the local
hydrology. The second section gives the current and normal/historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed forecast
locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk of the
river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
This outlook contains the probabilities for reaching flood stage
at the forecast points within the Missouri and James River basins
of North Dakota. Due to recent widespread and heavy rainfall, what
had been seasonally below normal probabilities for flooding are
now much closer to normal as recent rains now occupy a good
portion of the soil column`s capacity to hold water.

...Current Conditions...
Despite recent widespread and heavy rains, rivers tend to remain near
the low end of normal. A fairly dry soil profile coming into April
absorbed the vast majority of that rain. At this point, soil moisture
levels are much closer to normal levels and any heavy rains in the near
term should be expected to produce greater runoff.

...Weather Outlook...
The month of April has generally been very wet across the James and
Missouri River basins of North Dakota. In the near term 6-10 and 8 - 14
day outlooks the expectation is for above normal temperatures and a
below normal chance of precipitation. This transitions into an above
normal chance for above normal temperatures and an equal chance for
above normal, near normal, or below normal precipitation pattern in
the one and three month outlooks.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


                 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                     VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:James River
Grace City          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lamoure             14.0   16.0   18.0 :   7    9    5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Regent              22.0   24.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh             12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cannonball River
Breien              10.0   20.0   23.0 :  34   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton              12.0   14.0   16.0 :  32   24   11    9    8    7
:Little Muddy River
Williston           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  25   27   14   24   <5    6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth            18.0   23.0   30.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Missouri River
Medora              15.0   18.0   20.0 :   9    7   <5    5   <5    5
Watford City        20.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Knife River
Manning             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  13   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring Creek
Zap                 14.0   18.0   20.0 :  27   20   14    8   12   <5
:Knife River
Hazen               21.0   24.0   25.0 :  15   17    8    6   <5   <5
:Heart River
Mandan              17.0   23.0   28.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken             15.0   16.0   17.0 :  35   50   23   35   12   21

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                         VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.9    4.9    4.9    5.0    5.4    6.2    8.6
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.5    5.9    7.1    9.7
Lamoure               7.8    7.8    7.8    7.8    8.0   11.7   15.9
:Cannonball River
Regent                7.0    7.0    7.0    8.1    9.5   11.8   14.0
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               3.4    3.4    4.0    5.1    6.2    7.6    8.0
:Cannonball River
Breien                7.1    7.1    7.5    9.1   11.2   13.1   13.6
:Beaver Creek
Linton                6.2    6.2    6.8   10.1   12.8   14.5   18.9
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.9    4.9    4.9    5.5   10.1   12.4   13.1
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    6.2   13.5   15.5
:Little Missouri River
Medora                7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    8.0   14.3   16.7
Watford City          3.3    3.3    3.3    3.5    5.4    9.6   12.1
:Knife River
Manning               8.1    8.1    8.4   10.8   13.3   16.3   16.7
:Spring Creek
Zap                   6.3    6.3    7.2   12.2   14.2   22.1   24.7
:Knife River
Hazen                 9.9    9.9    9.9   14.3   18.6   23.0   24.8
:Heart River
Mandan                3.9    3.9    3.9    5.0    7.1    8.0   19.0
:Apple Creek
Menoken              13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6   15.6   17.1   18.8

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          VALID PERIOD = 04/30/2016  - 07/29/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem Creek
Pingree               4.8    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:James River
Grace City            4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
Lamoure               7.7    7.6    7.6    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5
:Cannonball River
Regent                5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh               1.3    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
:Cannonball River
Breien                2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5
:Beaver Creek
Linton                4.7    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3
:Little Muddy River
Williston             4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6
:Little Missouri
Marmarth              1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3
:Little Missouri River
Medora                2.2    2.0    2.0    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
Watford City         -0.1   -0.2   -0.2   -0.4   -0.4   -0.5   -0.5
:Knife River
Manning               6.4    6.4    6.4    6.3    6.3    6.3    6.3
:Spring Creek
Zap                   5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Knife River
Hazen                 1.4    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1
:Heart River
Mandan               -0.2   -0.2   -0.5   -0.7   -0.9   -1.2   -1.3
:Apple Creek
Menoken               5.2    5.1    5.0    4.6    4.3    4.2    4.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.govis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of next month.

$$
AJS



  [top]

000
FGUS73 KFGF 291311
ESFFGF

NDC005-027-071-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0807 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...

                          Devils and Stump Lakes
                    Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook

  The National Weather Service is providing long-range probabilistic
   hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
    and September. They will not be provided between October and
     December.

  The AHPS graphics associated with this outlook will be on the web
   no later than 10:30 AM this Friday under the experimental
    long-range flood risk tab at...

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=fgf

  Depending on the season, the high or low water probabilities may
   be omitted due to their applicability to the hydrologic situation.
    Refer to the scheduling section farther on in this message.


. Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes rising above given lake levels...

  The probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
   of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
    years that were run through the model using the precipitation
     and temperatures for those years during the valid period of the
      outlook.

  Interpretation Aid...There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
   Lake will rise above 1450.7 feet during the valid period and
    only a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 1451.6 feet.

           Probabilities for exceeding listed lake levels

              FROM APRIL 24, 2016 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2016

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
  CREEL BAY         1450.6 1450.6 1450.6 1450.7 1450.8 1451.2 1451.6
STUMP LAKE.....
  EAST STUMP LAKE   1450.6 1450.6 1450.6 1450.7 1450.8 1451.2 1451.6


. Current and previous record high lake levels...

 *  The current height of Devils Lake at Creel Bay is 1450.3 feet
 *  The current height of  Stump Lake near Lakota  is 1450.1 feet

 *  The most recent USGS provisional record daily average height
    for Devils Lake at the Creel Bay gage:
                ...1454.30 feet on   June 27 of 2011
 *  Previous records:
                ...1452.05 feet on   June 27 of 2010
                ...1450.93 feet on   June 27 of 2009
                ...1449.20 feet on    May  9 of 2006
                ...1449.18 feet on   June 17 of 2004
                ...1449.17 feet on August  2 of 2005

 * For more high water marks...see the USGS flood tracking charts at:

         waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=floods&r=nd&w=map

. Outlook Schedule...

 - Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.

 - Special Spring Flood and Water Management Outlooks will be issued
    in late February and, two weeks later, in early March.

 - For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances
    will be provided.

 - For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
    provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.

 - No probability of exceedance/non-exceedance information will be
    given from October through December, since lake freeze-up
     levels will be given in the fall outlooks previously issued.

. Additional Information...

Wind and Wave forecasts for Devils and Stump lakes are available for
a seven day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at:

           www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info

The long-range probabilistic outlook is based on high and low lake
  levels that were calculated for the valid period using multiple
  scenarios of temperature and precipitation from 1949 to 2012 and
  current conditions of the lake, snowcover (in winter), and soil
  moisture.

A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

By providing the complete range of lake level probabilities, the
  amount of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
  be determined. These probabilistic outlooks are part of Noah`s
  National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
  Services (AHPS).

This outlook is also presented as probability graphs of lake height
  for the full period as well as weekly probabilities. The outlook
  graphics and explanations that help in interpreting these outlooks
  are available from...the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web page at:

             water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?/wfo=fgf

When available (see schedule above) the AHPS graphics for monthly
  outlooks should be available by mid-morning or early afternoon.
  Monthly probabilistic outlooks are issued on the Friday of the week
  following the first Thursday after the 15Th of the month. Special
  spring flood and water management outlooks are issued on Thursday
  afternoons in late February and then again, two weeks later in
early
  March to coincide with the spring snow melt. Due to the lake
  freeze-up will not be issued from October through December.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
      weather.gov/fgf
NNNN






000
FGUS73 KFGF 291307
ESFFGF

MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-089-107-111-113-
119-125-135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-
067-071-073-077-081-091-095-097-099-301200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0804 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016


...RED RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...

         This outlook covers the Red River of the North
         and its Minnesota and North Dakota tributaries.

  Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks now use 64 years (1949-2012)
    of past weather...temperature and precipitation...for the
    ensemble predictive hydrographs used in calculating the
    probabilities of exceeding a river level for the valid period
    of the outlook.

  Outlook Schedule - The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,
    North Dakota will be providing the Advanced Hydrologic
    Prediction Services (AHPS) Long-Range Probabilistic Hydrologic
    Outlooks for the Red River of the North and its Minnesota and
    North Dakota tributaries according to the following schedule:

    - near the end of the month throughout the year, except for...

    - The Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks that will be
       issued at least twice a month during the spring snow-melt
        season beginning in mid-to-late February or early-March.

  The following message has three river data sections...

    - The first (Table 1) gives the current and normal/historical
       chances of river locations reaching their Minor...Moderate
        and Major flood category.

    - The second (Table 2) gives the current chances of river
       locations rising above the river stages listed.

    - The third (Table 3) gives the current chances of river
       locations falling below the river stages listed.

.Red River Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...
              Valid from May 01, 2016 to July 30, 2016.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
  probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood
  stages are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
    based on historical or normal conditions.

  - When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
    exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
    is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is
    lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding
               Valid Period:   05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016

                                         : Current and Historical
                                         :  Chances of Exceeding
                                         :    Flood Categories
                                         :   as s Percentage (%)
                         Categorical     :
                      Flood Stages (ft)  :  Minor   Moderate  Major
Location            Minor    Mod   Major :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  33  55   14  27    5   8
  HICKSON             30.0   34.0   38.0 :   7  18   <5   8   <5  <5
  FARGO               18.0   25.0   30.0 :  53  69   12  23    6  15
  HALSTAD             26.0   32.0   37.5 :   7  19   <5  10   <5  <5
  GRAND FORKS         28.0   40.0   46.0 :  24  46   <5  17   <5  <5
  OSLO                26.0   30.0   36.0 :  28  54   18  42   <5   9
  DRAYTON             32.0   38.0   42.0 :  10  36   <5  21   <5   7
  PEMBINA             39.0   44.0   49.0 :  10  42   <5  35   <5  14
Minnesota Tributaries.....
  SABIN               13.0   15.0   19.0 :  25  28   <5   6   <5  <5
  HAWLEY               8.0    9.0   11.0 :  17  21   12  12   <5  <5
  DILWORTH            13.0   20.0   26.0 :  34  44    6  10   <5  <5
  TWIN VALLEY         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HENDRUM             20.0   28.0   32.0 :  19  36   <5  10   <5  <5
  SHELLY              14.0   20.0   23.0 :  <5   9   <5  <5   <5  <5
  CLIMAX              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  HIGH LANDING        12.0   12.5   13.0 :  <5  40   <5  30   <5  13
  CROOKSTON           15.0   23.0   25.0 :  16  41   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ABOVE WARREN        67.0   71.0   75.0 :  <5   8   <5  <5   <5  <5
  ALVARADO           106.0  108.0  110.0 :  10  13   <5   6   <5  <5
  HALLOCK            802.0  806.0  810.0 :  28  38   14  19   <5  <5
  ROSEAU              16.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
   Note: The Roseau numbers consider the flow thru its diversion
North Dakota Tributaries.....
  ABERCROMBIE         10.0   12.0   18.0 :  14  23    8  19   <5   6
  VALLEY CITY         15.0   16.0   17.0 :  <5   6   <5   5   <5  <5
  LISBON              15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5  10   <5  <5   <5  <5
  KINDRED             16.0   19.0   20.5 :   7  17   <5  10   <5   7
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    18.0   20.0   21.0 :   9  20   <5  14   <5  12
  HARWOOD            884.0  886.0  891.0 :   8  18   <5  15   <5   6
  ENDERLIN             9.5   12.0   14.0 :   8  12   <5   5   <5  <5
  MAPLETON           905.0  908.0  910.0 :  16  23   <5   8   <5  <5
  HILLSBORO           10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  MINTO                6.0    8.0   11.0 :  <5   7   <5  <5   <5  <5
  GRAFTON             12.0   13.5   14.5 :  <5   6   <5  <5   <5  <5
  WALHALLA            11.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5  13   <5  <5   <5  <5
  NECHE               18.0   19.0   20.5 :  <5  22   <5  18   <5  10

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...
                    from  05/01/2016 to 07/30/2016

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
    valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will rise above 10.0 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will rise above 13.4 feet.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                                 Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016


LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             6.9    7.1    7.7   10.0   12.2   13.4   15.2
  HICKSON             13.5   13.6   14.4   18.8   24.3   27.8   33.7
  FARGO               16.1   16.1   16.3   18.2   21.7   26.1   31.8
  HALSTAD             10.4   10.4   10.5   13.4   19.2   23.8   27.8
  GRAND FORKS         18.1   18.1   18.4   19.9   27.5   33.3   35.7
  OSLO                12.1   12.1   12.8   16.7   26.7   32.6   33.7
  DRAYTON             15.8   15.8   17.4   21.1   27.7   31.6   32.7
  PEMBINA             18.4   18.4   20.2   23.8   34.6   39.1   41.6


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                6.1    6.1    9.0   11.2   13.0   14.1   14.9
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               4.5    4.5    4.6    5.4    6.5    9.2   10.0
  DILWORTH             6.3    6.3    7.1   11.3   15.2   19.0   20.3
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.6    2.6    2.7    4.0    5.9    8.9    9.7
  HENDRUM              6.5    6.5    7.0   11.4   18.6   25.1   26.0
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.5    4.5    4.5    6.1    9.2   10.6   12.5
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               5.2    5.7    6.6    7.8   11.0   13.2   15.1
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         3.6    3.7    4.4    5.7    8.4    9.9   10.1
  CROOKSTON            6.7    6.7    7.7    9.4   13.8   17.2   19.9
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.8   60.8   61.5   62.6   63.8   65.9   66.2
  ALVARADO            96.3   96.3   96.9   99.0  102.2  106.0  107.4
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            797.3  797.3  797.6  799.4  803.5  807.6  808.7
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               6.7    6.7    6.7    8.2   10.4   14.8   16.0


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.9    1.0    1.5    2.9    7.1   11.0   15.9
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          5.7    5.7    5.7    6.3    8.1   11.5   12.6
  LISBON               5.2    5.2    5.2    5.5    8.4   11.5   13.4
  KINDRED              7.0    7.0    7.0    7.1   10.9   14.9   17.6
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    12.4   12.4   12.4   12.4   14.5   17.4   19.9
  HARWOOD            873.5  873.5  873.5  873.8  877.6  882.5  885.1
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    6.1    9.1   10.9
  MAPLETON           896.9  896.9  896.9  897.3  901.9  905.6  907.8
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            2.0    2.0    2.0    2.6    4.1    5.7    8.3
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.4    1.4    1.6    2.1    3.5    4.9    5.9
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.7    7.7    7.7    8.1    9.2   10.3   11.5
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             3.1    3.1    3.1    3.8    5.6    7.4    8.7
  NECHE                4.9    4.9    4.9    5.7    9.2   14.3   16.1

.Probabilities for Falling Below Listed River Stages...
                    from  05/01/2016 to 07/30/2016

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
  probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
   the valid time period at the location listed.

  Interpretation Aid...The flood stage for Wahpeton on the Red
   River of the North is 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance
    that it will fall below 4.0 feet and only a 10 percent chance
     that it will fall below 3.5 feet.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Not Exceeding Stages
                                   at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period:   05/01/2016 - 07/30/2016


LOCATION              95%    50%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Red River of the North.....
  WAHPETON             5.2    4.9    4.6    4.0    3.7    3.5    3.4
  HICKSON             11.9   11.3   11.0   10.4   10.0    9.7    9.7
  FARGO               15.2   14.8   14.6   14.3   14.0   13.8   13.8
  HALSTAD              6.5    6.1    5.1    4.1    3.6    3.1    2.8
  GRAND FORKS         17.0   16.7   16.2   15.7   15.5   15.4   15.3
  OSLO                 9.4    8.7    7.7    6.7    6.4    5.5    5.3
  DRAYTON             13.4   12.8   12.3   11.7   11.4   11.2   11.2
  PEMBINA             15.1   13.7   11.8    9.5    8.5    7.7    7.3


Minnesota Tribs:      95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
South Fork Buffalo River.....
  SABIN                5.5    5.4    5.3    5.1    5.0    4.8    4.8
Buffalo River.....
  HAWLEY               3.8    3.7    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3
  DILWORTH             4.3    4.2    3.8    3.6    3.4    3.2    3.1
Wild Rice River.....
  TWIN VALLEY          2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5
  HENDRUM              3.2    3.0    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
Marsh River.....
  SHELLY               4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.7
Sand Hill River.....
  CLIMAX               4.6    4.4    3.9    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.3
Red Lake river.....
  HIGH LANDING         3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
  CROOKSTON            5.4    5.1    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2
Snake River.....
  ABOVE WARREN        60.8   60.8   60.6   60.2   60.2   60.2   60.2
  ALVARADO            96.3   96.2   95.8   94.8   94.8   94.8   94.8
Two Rivers River.....
  HALLOCK            795.1  794.9  794.5  794.2  793.9  793.7  793.7
Roseau River..... considering the flow thru the Roseau diversion
  ROSEAU               5.9    5.8    5.8    5.6    5.4    5.2    5.1


North Dakota Tribs:   95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Wild Rice River.....
  ABERCROMBIE          0.6    0.3   -0.1   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4   -0.4
Sheyenne River.....
  VALLEY CITY          4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.6
  LISBON               3.1    3.0    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5
  KINDRED              3.2    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4
  WEST FARGO DVRSN    10.0    9.9    9.8    9.7    9.6    9.5    9.5
  HARWOOD            868.6  868.2  867.6  867.1  866.8  866.3  866.2
Maple River.....
  ENDERLIN             2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
  MAPLETON           895.1  895.0  894.9  894.7  894.6  894.6  894.6
Goose River.....
  HILLSBORO            1.8    1.8    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
Forest River.....
  MINTO                1.4    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.2    1.2    1.2
Park River.....
  GRAFTON              7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
Pembina River.....
  WALHALLA             2.5    2.3    1.8    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3
  NECHE                3.8    3.5    2.7    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.1



.THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

This long range probabilistic outlook is based on a series of peak
 river levels or crests taken from the forecast hydrograph results
 of the NWS Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). The model
 is run for multiple scenarios starting at current river, low and
 soil conditions and using over 60 years of past precipitation and
 temperature conditions that were experienced for those past years
 during the time-frame of the outlook period. These crests can then
 be ranked from lowest to highest, and then be assigned an
 exceedance probability. For example, For a series of 50 years, the
 lowest ranked crest has 49 crests above it and since 95 percent
 of the crests are above it, it is assigned a 95 percent probability
 of exceedance (POE).

 A YouTube video on "How to Interpret River Outlook Products" is at:

         www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSoEgvsnpv4

The probabilities can be used for risk management by using them as
 an indication of the range of crests that may be expected during
 the valid period of the outlook.

By providing a range of peak river level probabilities, the NWS is
 contributing to the area`s Decision Support Services that help
 with long-range flood planning and response readiness. This outlook
 is a part of NOAA/S National Weather Service`s AHPS (Advanced
 Hydrologic Prediction Services).

This outlook was produced using precipitation and temperatures
 for the years 1949 through 2012.


.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

The AHPS long-range Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks are issued
 each month typically between the first and second Friday after
 mid-month However, spring flood and water resources outlooks are
 issued several times during the critical spring melt period,
 usually on Thursdays beginning in late February or early March and
 ending in early April, depending on the spring flooding conditions.

This outlook is also presented as graphs of the probability of stage
 exceedance for the full period and for weekly intervals during the
 period. These graphs, together with explanations that help in
 interpreting them are available from the NWS Grand Forks AHPS web
 page on the internet at:

        www.weather.gov/grandforks or weather.gov/fgf

 then click on the "Rivers and Lakes" on the tab above the map.

Current river conditions for all river forecast points in the Red
 River of the North and Devils/Stump Lake conditions are also
 available on our web site, as well as the 7-day forecasts when
 the river at the forecast point is in or near flood.

If you have any questions, contact the NWS at 701-772-0720.

Also, 7-day deterministic forecasts will be issued at least once a
 day when the river forecast locations will be at flood during that
 period.

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlooks will be issued monthly throughout
 the rest of the year during the later part of the month or as
 conditions warrant.

Refer to the separate Devils Lake Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
 for Devils and Stump Lakes probability of exceedance levels and
 low-water non-exceedance levels.

You can follow us on Facebook at: www.facebook.com/NWSGrandForks
 and on Twitter at: @NWSGrandForks.

$$
     weather.gov/fgf
NNNN







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